The NFL's quarterback carousel is turning quickly.
We've already seen three notable veterans traded to new teams, as Carson Wentz was dealt to the Commanders, Russell Wilson went to the Broncos and Deshaun Watson was shipped off to the Browns. The Steelers also added a new signal-caller by signing Mitch Trubisky to a two-year deal in free agency. Less than one week into the new league year, four teams already have new starters.
More are on the way. The biggest names might already have moved, but there are still a number of teams that either need a quarterback or would consider an upgrade under center. Some of those could turn to the draft in April. Others will explore the leftover pieces on the trade market or in free agency.
Let's run through those teams and identify how they could address their void under center.
Note: This story was posted Monday morning, before the Falcons traded Matt Ryan to the Colts for a 2022 third-round pick and the Saints re-signed Jameis Winston. The Atlanta, Indianapolis and New Orleans sections have been moved to the bottom of the story.
Jump to a team:
CAR | HOU | SEA
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have struck out in their pursuit of every superstar quarterback. Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson and now Watson have all chosen to go elsewhere over the past year. Their desperation a year ago led them to trade for Sam Darnold, and they will be feeling that pinch in 2022. Carolina sent the 38th pick in this year's draft to the Jets for Darnold, and Matt Rhule & Co. picked up his fifth-year option, guaranteeing him $18.9 million this year.
Assuming the Panthers don't trade away another pick to try to get someone to eat the Darnold money, they find themselves in a difficult position. He is a sunk cost at this point, and if they don't love any of the quarterbacks in this year's draft class, they would likely prefer to add someone such as NC State offensive tackle Ikem Ekwonu with the No. 6 pick. Using a middle-rounds pick on a project signal-caller doesn't push the Panthers forward, and there aren't many veterans left with a significant ceiling. They might instead need to get creative.
Quarterback they should add: Jordan Love. If the Panthers are looking for upside and a long-term solution, one place to try to find that quarterback would be to go after the guy who was briefly the future of the Packers. We've seen only 62 middling pass attempts from Love through his first two seasons, but Carolina reportedly did serious research on Love before the 2020 draft. The Packers traded up to grab Love at the bottom of the first round, so we don't know whether Rhule would have taken him with the 38th pick.
The Packers can't realistically expect to recoup a first-round pick for Love, who hasn't had a chance to show much and hasn't looked great when he has played. Love still has two years left on his rookie deal plus the possibility of a fifth-year option, so he would still be a reasonably low-cost option for a team to investigate. With two first- and second-round picks in this draft, Green Bay doesn't really need extra selections in 2022.
Instead, the Panthers can send a 2023 second-round pick to the Packers for Love with a conditional pick in 2024 if Love emerges as an instant starter. It's difficult for a struggling team like the Panthers to repeatedly trade away draft picks, but if Love turns out to be the starter they've wanted, they wouldn't regret the cost. If Love isn't the answer, they would still have their first-round pick and be in position to draft another passer next year.
Houston Texans
The team that traded Watson still has to examine its own quarterback situation. The Texans are excited about second-year signal-caller Davis Mills after general manager Nick Caserio used his first draft pick with the organization to take the Stanford player at No. 67 last year. Mills got off to a slow start filling in for an injured Tyrod Taylor, but over the final five games of the season, he completed more than 68% of his passes, averaged 7.4 yards per attempt and threw nine touchdown passes against two picks.
Mills is going to be involved in 2022, but a solid five-game stretch against what was mostly below-average competition isn't enough to guarantee that he'll be a 10-year starter. The Texans have only Jeff Driskel and Kyle Allen behind him, so while they likely won't go after someone to take his spot, they shouldn't stand pat, either.
Naturally, for a team that's as far away from competing as Houston is, you can never rule out drafting a quarterback. Caserio has pick Nos. 3, 13, 37 and 68 to work with, so he'll have plenty of chances to take one. Unless the Texans are absolutely smitten with a prospect, though, they are probably looking at adding a veteran to help mentor Mills.
Quarterback they should add: Andy Dalton. This would be a homecoming for Dalton, who was a high school star in the Houston suburbs. His 2021 season with the Bears wasn't exactly impressive, but the longtime Bengals starter strikes the exact balance the Texans would want from their quarterback situation. Dalton is just good enough to push Mills without being a clear upgrade. He also wouldn't be an expensive addition.
Seattle Seahawks
Before the Adams and Watson trades, there was a brief moment in which the Seahawks were the center of the football world. After trading Wilson to the Broncos, Pete Carroll held a news conference reiterating his commitment to his run-heavy beliefs, insisting that he was delighted to get a great offer for Wilson and suggesting that the Seahawks really liked Drew Lock coming out of Missouri in the 2019 draft.
Lock wasn't good in Denver. The Seahawks took swings on Charlie Whitehurst and Matt Flynn before stumbling onto Wilson, but those guys had barely played in the league before joining Seattle. Lock has more than 700 NFL pass attempts with a 39.6 QBR; the only player with more pass attempts over the past three years who has a worse QBR over that time frame is Darnold. Given that Carroll said it was "only a matter of time" before Darnold turned into a big-time quarterback back in 2020, could the Seahawks actually consider trading with Carolina for him?
General manager John Schneider has three of the top 41 picks in the draft after the Wilson trade, and I wonder whether the Seahawks were more willing to accommodate Wilson's desire to move because they love one (or more) of the quarterbacks in this draft class. The quickest way to meaningfully move on from Wilson would be to take a passer at No. 9, although there are several teams ahead of them that could take a long look at a passer.
Given Carroll's near-pathological obsession with competing, though, there's an available quarterback who might better fit Seattle's need for someone to battle with Lock.
Quarterback they should add: Baker Mayfield. I like the fit here. I have to believe that Mayfield's on-field intangibles and desire to play through last year's shoulder injury appeal to Carroll. Mayfield seemingly has to manufacture doubters to play at his best, and after being forced out of Cleveland, putting him in the position of replacing a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback in Seattle would give him an almost unlimited well of motivation.
The scheme is a good fit for Mayfield, who would be playing in a version of the same Kubiak/Shanahan offense he ran under Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland over the past couple of seasons. While he didn't look great in that scheme by the end of 2021, some of his best football came working out of this offense in 2020. He would have a good receiving group with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant, and the Seahawks wouldn't place too much on his shoulders. Seattle would be a good place for Mayfield to rebuild his value.
The Seahawks would get to take a one-year look at Mayfield, who has $18.9 million due for the final year of his deal. If he looks like the guy we saw excel for stretches in 2018 and 2020, they would have the ability to franchise him in 2022 or work on an extension. If it doesn't work out, they would be able to move on after the year and pursue another quarterback, either via trade or in the 2023 draft.
How much Mayfield would cost could be tough. The Browns don't have much leverage after trading multiple first-rounders for Watson, and they also signed Jacoby Brissett over the weekend. While I don't think there was a realistic chance of general manager Andrew Berry keeping Mayfield to fill in for Watson during a potential suspension, that possibility seems even more remote after adding Brissett.
Mayfield is also recovering from shoulder surgery, so any team acquiring him would likely want to see his medical work before doing any sort of deal. My guess is that the Browns probably would be looking at a third-round pick, possibly in 2023.
Note: This was written Monday morning, before the Falcons traded Matt Ryan to the Colts for a 2022 third-round pick and the Saints re-signed Jameis Winston.
Atlanta Falcons
I never bought that Watson made serious sense for the Falcons. This roster is a mess after years of questionable drafts and salary-cap decisions; Atlanta has lost its WR1 (Calvin Ridley) to suspension, its WR2 (Russell Gage) to the Buccaneers in free agency and its best linebacker (Foyesade Oluokun) to the Jaguars in free agency without signing any meaningful replacements. Trading away multiple first-round picks for Watson would have netted the Falcons a younger quarterback while keeping them from building much of a team around him; we've already seen what that looks like when the 2020 Texans went 4-12.
Now, the Falcons have to maneuver around an uncertain situation after attempting to replace longtime starter Matt Ryan with Watson. They reportedly let Ryan talk to other teams in the middle of their negotiations and pushed his $7.5 million roster bonus back until Tuesday. They could trade Ryan, but I'm not sure there's a team desperate to add the 14-year veteran at the sort of price that might appeal to Atlanta.
The Falcons would also eat more than $40 million in dead money by trading him, which would be an NFL single-season record for any individual player. They would free up approximately $8 million in cap space in the process, though, and their cap would finally begin to look clean in 2023 and beyond. It's probably more likely that the Falcons will pay the bonus and restructure Ryan's deal to create short-term cap space.
Quarterback they should add: Malik Willis. With the No. 8 pick in next month's draft, the Falcons could be in position to add one of the top passers. They could then trade Ryan after June 1 in a move to reduce their 2022 dead cap, although the market for an expensive veteran is murky now and could be even less profitable then. They could also keep Willis -- the No. 1-ranked QB by ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay -- on the bench this season and start transitioning to the youngster in 2023. Willis, who played at Liberty after transferring from Auburn, might not be on the board at No. 8 if the Lions (No. 2) or Panthers (No. 6) draft a quarterback, but if the Falcons have a young passer they love, taking one in the top 10 would make sense.
If the Falcons decide to move on from Ryan, the best option available to start in 2022 might be Marcus Mariota, who played under Arthur Smith when the two were together in Tennessee. Mariota was benched that season for Ryan Tannehill, so the partnership wasn't exactly the stuff of legend, but the free agent has been a capable quarterback and offers a higher floor than any of the other remaining veterans.
Indianapolis Colts
Indy kicked off this wild offseason by dumping Wentz on the Commanders for a package of picks. While many were wondering whether they would find a meaningful market for their embattled quarterback, general manager Chris Ballard ended up netting something equivalent to the 19th overall pick in a typical draft, according to Chase Stuart's value chart.
Now, the Colts don't have their first-rounder, but they do have pick Nos. 42, 73 and 82 in this draft. One of those picks could go toward a quarterback coming out of college. It could also go toward acquiring Wentz's replacement. Given that they were a win over the Jaguars away from clinching a playoff berth in January, you could make a reasonable case that they should be going after a competent veteran quarterback if one is available.
Thankfully for Indianapolis, one high-floor quarterback is still left on the market.
Quarterback they should add: Jimmy Garoppolo. I was tempted to say Nick Foles and reunite him with Frank Reich, but Garoppolo has proved to be a solid option when healthy in San Francisco. "When healthy" is doing a lot of work in that sentence, given Garoppolo's track record -- he started just 46 regular-season games in five seasons with the 49ers -- and the Colts are down two starters along their offensive line with Eric Fisher and Mark Glowinski both gone in free agency, but there are few teams that could offer Garoppolo a better chance of staying healthy than Indianapolis.
Trading Garoppolo to the Colts would allow the 49ers to deal Garoppolo to the other conference. They have the cap space to absorb Garoppolo's $27 million cap hit for 2022 without having to make any adjustments, although they might also choose to offer him an extension as part of this deal. He can be maddening at times, but he hasn't worn out his welcome in San Francisco in the same way Wentz did in Indianapolis. And now, after the trade with the Commanders, the Colts have a second-round pick to send the 49ers for their new starter.
New Orleans Saints
Considered the front-runners for Watson for most of the past few weeks, the Saints had essentially put their offseason on hold as they tried to negotiate a deal for him. They let beloved former quarterback Teddy Bridgewater join the Dolphins on a reasonable one-year deal and didn't re-sign left tackle Terron Armstead, which caused $13 million in dead money to accelerate onto their 2022 cap. The Saints would now be forced to double-dip if they re-signed Armstead, counting him both for the dead money of his old deal and whatever pops up from his new one.
Having restructured most of their notable contracts, New Orleans has $24.6 million in cap space, so it can afford to bring back Armstead and acquire a quarterback. It still has Taysom Hill on the roster -- and the 31-year-old's deal makes it difficult to move on from for a couple of more seasons -- so it seems likely that he will at least take some snaps at quarterback when healthy. Given his bruising style of play and middling efficiency as a passer, it's difficult to imagine that the Saints would give Hill the quarterback job on a full-time basis.
So unless they want to turn things over to Blake Bortles or 2021 fourth-rounder Ian Book, another quarterback will be on his way to the Bayou. But who?
Quarterback they should add: Jameis Winston. The Saints have four of the first 101 picks in the draft and could take a quarterback, but the obvious link is to their Week 1 starter from a year ago. Winston was quietly impressive in his season as New Orleans' starter, as he ranked 12th in the league in Total QBR when he went down with a torn ACL in November. He should be ready for training camp. For a Saints team trying to keep as many pieces from its 2021 core as possible, Winston's familiarity with the offense should be a plus.
It would also be inexpensive. Winston is probably looking at another one-year deal, as he needs to put together a full, healthy season to justify something more significant. His one-year deal last year had a base value of $5.5 million; I wouldn't be surprised if this deal came in slightly higher.