Every NFL team's offseason is filled with small moves and marginal personnel decisions. Sometimes, that series of small moves will build a winner. But a big, bold move always helps by dramatically improving talent at an important position or changing the overall direction of the franchise. Those daring moves often make the offseason fun for fans.
So we have enlisted Scott Spratt, Robert Weintraub, J.P. Acosta, Mike Tanier, Rivers McCown, Derrik Klassen, Bryan Knowles and Vincent Verhei from Football Outsiders to suggest 32 bold moves, one for each team.
Some of these moves are realistic and could very well happen when free agency rolls around on March 16 or when the NFL Draft kicks off in April; and others are more far-fetched. But each would provide a significant change and improve a team's chances of winning future Super Bowls.
We will often refer to Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metric, which takes every play during the season and compares it to a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. It is explained further here.
Keep in mind that moves are suggested for each team independently of the moves suggested for other teams, which is why you may see some veteran quarterbacks suggested as trade targets for multiple franchises.
Let's now take a look, starting with the NFC West.
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
Decline Kyler Murray's fifth-year option.
The Cardinals drafted Murray first overall in 2019 and have improved every season since, going from 3-13 pre-Murray to 5-10-1, 8-8 and 11-6 in the past three seasons. That last season culminated in a playoff game, Arizona's first since the 2015 season. Along the way, Murray has earned an Offensive Rookie of the Year award and played in each of the past two Pro Bowls. So why wouldn't the Cardinals want to commit to their young quarterback?
For starters, there's Murray's performance in that playoff game, when his 34 passes gained only 137 yards with a pair of interceptions (including a brutally bad pick-six) in a 34-11 loss to the Rams. That result put an ugly end to a terrible slump for the Cardinals, who started 7-0 before collapsing down the stretch. Worse, it was the second straight season Murray and the Cards fell apart in the second half of the season. In his career, Murray has averaged 7.70 yards per throw in September and October, and Arizona has gone 15-8-1 in his starts. But Murray's average drops by nearly a full yard to an ominous 6.66 in November, December and January, when he has gone 7-16 as a starter. His rushing numbers have held steadier, but that hasn't been enough for Arizona to win games after Halloween.
Murray and the Cards now find themselves in a similar spot to where Mayfield and the Browns were a year ago at this time. Mayfield, like Murray, was a former first-round pick out of Oklahoma who reached the playoffs in his third season. Cleveland promptly picked up Mayfield's fifth-year option, guaranteeing him nearly $19 million in 2022. Twelve months later, the Browns finished out of the playoffs and Mayfield's job would likely be in jeopardy were it not for that guarantee.
The Cardinals have even more at stake -- should they pick up Murray's fifth-year option, it would cost them close to $29 million in 2023. That's an expensive risk to take, even ignoring the noise that has swirled around Murray since the Rams loss. Arizona might be better off letting the quarterback's contract expire after the 2022 season. At that point, if Murray has earned a Josh Allen-sized contract extension, the Cards should be only too happy to pay up.
Los Angeles Rams
Let Von Miller move on.
"Los Angeles Rams! You just won the Super Bowl! What are you going to do now?"
"Nothing -- we blew our budget on this year's team!"
Yes, the Rams went all-in on 2021, and they won a Lombardi trophy, so no regrets. But now the bills have come due. ESPN's Kevin Seifert ranked them dead last in offseason resources, with negative cap space and a dearth of early draft picks. It's not quite as dire as it sounds -- as Nick Korte of Over The Cap explains, they can clear about $60 million in cap space with simple restructures of veterans under contract -- but with capital so slim, they're going to have a hard time retaining free agents in the open market. And with the possibility left tackle Andrew Whitworth retires, it's critical that they re-sign center Brian Allen and right guard Austin Corbett. Sean McVay's offense is reliant on offensive line continuity, and he can't afford to lose multiple starters with no obvious means to replace them.
That means that Miller will likely be too expensive to afford, and that's going to be a huge blow to L.A.'s defense. In less than half a season with the Rams, Miller finished second on the team (behind Aaron Donald, of course) with a dozen tackles for loss. Then he led the Rams with a half-dozen more TFL in the playoffs. Considering that Los Angeles' past three playoff wins came by just three points each, it's quite likely that it doesn't win the Super Bowl without Miller on the field. But the Rams probably have to find a way to win without him if they want to run it back this upcoming season.
San Francisco 49ers
Retain Jimmy Garoppolo.
Last year, the 49ers traded three first-round picks for Trey Lance, but the rookie failed to win the starting job in training camp and underwhelmed in limited regular-season action, finishing with a QBR of 33.4 that would have ranked 29th out of 31 full-season qualifiers (right between Lawrence and Darnold). Meanwhile, Garoppolo, finished 13th in QBR and helped San Francisco reach the NFC Championship Game. It wasn't always pretty, but Garoppolo was a better quarterback than Lance, and there's no guarantee he won't still be better this fall.
The trade market could be lukewarm for Garoppolo -- ESPN's Luke Wagoner is among those observers saying it could be as low as a Day 3 pick. If that's the case, why not keep the veteran and see if he can hold off the rookie once more? It would be expensive: Over The Cap puts Garoppolo's cap hit at close to $27 million -- but with Lance on a rookie deal, the 49ers could find a way to make it work. And it's not as if they are rebuilding. This is a team that won two playoff games last season and is looking to win more now. If anything, keeping Garoppolo might be conservative -- putting this franchise in the hands of a passer who is still younger than most of the quarterbacks in this year's draft class might be the bolder risk.
Seattle Seahawks
Show Rashaad Penny the money.
It appears unlikely that the Seahawks will trade Wilson or cut Bobby Wagner for cap space. With the boldest of the bold moves off the table, let's discuss another player the Seahawks could retain: Penny, the former first-round pick who is about to hit the open market after his rookie contract expired.
As recently as last Thanksgiving, re-signing Penny would have been unthinkable. Through Week 13 of last season, Penny had missed 30 games due to injury and played in only 32, and he averaged less than 30 yards when he did play, mostly as a backup to Chris Carson. But then, over the final five weeks of the season, Penny was suddenly the NFL's best running back, gaining a league-best 671 rushing yards over that span, 200 yards more than anyone else. Even though he started only six of his 10 appearances, he still made the top 10 in rushing yards per game, and he led the NFL with 6.3 yards per carry. And Penny's not entirely a one-year wonder -- he averaged better than 5.0 yards per carry over his first three seasons. Among active running backs with at least 100 carries, only J.K. Dobbins (6.0) and Raheem Mostert (5.7) have better career yards per carry numbers than Penny (5.6).
Even if Carson is able to return from disc-fusion neck surgery, Penny likely has the higher ceiling, and re-signing him should be near the top of Seattle's offseason to-do list. The Seahawks could use the franchise tag to stop Penny from signing elsewhere. That's probably excessive, especially with free-agent safety Quandre Diggs an even higher priority. But Seattle used a first-round pick on Penny for a reason, and it would be a shame if he finally lived up to his potential in another uniform.
-- Vincent Verhei
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Retain Amari Cooper.
Despite all the rhetoric this offseason, there's nothing wrong with Cooper. He's a good wide receiver and is coming off a decent season in which he finished 30th in receiving DVOA. Nothing we see in his career progression points to a real decline, and he'll turn 28 in June and figures to sustain his prime for a few more years. It's just that the way the Cowboys ran their offense last season, he was less involved than ever. He was targeted just 103 times, well below his established baseline with the Cowboys in 2019 and 2020, as Dalton Schultz became a bigger part of an offense that focused on reading the middle of the field. Some of that is because Cooper missed some games and struggled coming back from COVID-19, sure, but the Cowboys had plenty of games when he left with four or five targets.
Dallas is a team that feels eternally up against the cap. It also has Schultz and Michael Gallup as free agents. Cooper's cap hit in 2022 is slated to be $22 million, and the Cowboys will enter the offseason over the cap. There are a few other free agents they'd probably like to retain such as Jayron Kearse, Connor Williams and Randy Gregory. They can create plenty of cap space with restructures and releases, but Cooper should not be one of the releases. Given how lightly Cooper was used last season, it's worth considering the problem with his "decline" can be solved with a schematic change instead of roster turnover -- particularly if they aren't interested in retaining Schultz.
New York Giants
Stay the course for 2022 and be prepared to eat humble pie.
I know, that doesn't sound like the advice you would expect in a column about bold moves. But the Giants are just about tapped out on their ability to make bold moves. They're already over the cap. Out of their top seven cap figures, the Giants can't really move on from anyone but Blake Martinez and James Bradberry to save money without a post-June 1 designation. And Bradberry was a bit of a bright spot in 2021.
They're already owner-committed to Daniel Jones in 2022, and they have almost an entire offensive line hitting free agency between Will Hernandez, Billy Price, Matt Skura and Nate Solder. In his public comments to Peter King, new GM Joe Schoen mentioned wanting to create $40 million in cap space.
So, here's the bold move: It's the New York market, and everyone wants to see progress right away. But without non-draft resources, the Giants might be best off just taking the temperature of their roster under Brian Daboll's management this year and hoping they see some things trend up purely on coaching. Things will look much better for their cap in 2023.
We're not saying the Giants should tank. It's just a tough offseason for them to really pull off a bold move besides something like "drafting a quarterback with a top-10 pick," which isn't something that the talent of this particular draft warrants. Daboll's old team in Buffalo also started with a rough taking-your-medicine season in which the Bills had a hard-to-watch offense led by Allen. That, too, eventually turned around. The Giants don't need to trade Barkley or cut Sterling Shepard. Let's see what happens when they're healthy and using an offensive game plan less regressive than Jason Garrett's.
Philadelphia Eagles
Get ready to draft yet another first-round receiver.
The Eagles have three first-round picks, and there are a bevy of wideouts projected to go around the middle of the round such as Ohio State's Garrett Wilson, Arkansas' Treylon Burks, USC's Drake London, Alabama's Jameson Williams and (also) Ohio State's Chris Olave. The team has tried to boost the wideout corps early and often over the past few years and has wound up with ... Jalen Reagor and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. Now, DeVonta Smith's rookie season was promising despite the run-heavy profile the team took on with Jalen Hurts under center. But whether you consider Hurts a long-term solution or not, the team needs more firepower to exploit teams that stack up against the run, as the Bucs did to Philly in the playoffs.
Philadelphia continues to get perilously close to major star roster turnover as players like Lane Johnson, Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox get closer to retirement age. They already lost Brandon Brooks to retirement this offseason, and Kelce is a free agent. There are plenty of legitimate arguments for how they should spend their treasure trove of picks. But the best way to figure out what they have in Hurts is to put another top-notch wideout into the equation -- perhaps teamed with a veteran free agent such as Smith-Schuster or DJ Chark Jr. to take some early snaps while the rookie adjusts to the NFL.
Washington Commanders
Double-dip in the quarterback position to try to get it settled.
The Commanders were held back by quarterback play last season, as they have been ever since Kirk Cousins vacated the premises. They haven't had a quarterback who started more than six games in a season post a QBR over 50 since Cousins left in 2017. The defense has shown flashes of promise even if it underachieved last season. Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson are a good enough core to threaten the playoffs with. But it's hard to win games without a real solution at the position, and Ryan Fitzpatrick probably doesn't count coming off a lost season.
Now, nobody is saying the Commanders can lure Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson. But there are competent free agents such as Jameis Winston and Teddy Bridgewater. There are reasonable trade targets like Jimmy Garoppolo. If Washington traded its second-round pick for Garoppolo, then maneuvered around the first round to wind up with Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis, it could wind up in a situation that features a short-term solution to buy time for the long-term guy. Would it cost a lot of draft capital and value? Sure. Does the salted-earth state of this quarterback room merit that? We think so.
-- Rivers McCown
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
Break the bank for Terron Armstead.
The Bears drafted Teven Jenkins in the second round of last year's draft. Primarily a right tackle in college, Chicago insisted on developing him into the left tackle of the future. Jenkins suffered a back injury in the preseason, which gave him a year to learn the position behind veteran Jason Peters. Jenkins did eventually start two games when Peters was injured late in the season but didn't show that left tackle is the correct place for him in that limited playing time. With a bona fide left tackle in Terron Armstead on the market and a fresh coaching staff in the building, the Bears might be better served abandoning Jenkins at left tackle.
It's unlikely that Jenkin could take an immediate Year 2 jump that would put him in or near Armstead's realm. He would likely be more comfortable kicking back over to the right side. Not only would that help the Bears take out two birds with one free-agent stone, but it would play into what their young quarterback Justin Fields needs the most: pass protection. Fields is prone to hanging on to the ball and hunting for big plays, and that cost the offense last season when a broken-down Peters and a revolving door of misery at right tackle regularly gave up immediate pressure. This approach might require the Bears to nail draft picks and midrange free-agent signings at wide receiver, but keeping Fields upright has to be the main priority for Chicago this season.
Detroit Lions
Trade the No. 2 pick for cheap.
Getting the pick of the litter out of Kayvon Thibodeaux, Aidan Hutchinson and Kyle Hamilton, among other prospects, is surely an enticing position for the Lions to be in. But one player is not fixing this team -- unless that player is a quarterback, but in this draft class, good luck. Detroit is so far away from being a complete team that it would be better off acquiring as many dart throws as possible to fill out the roster with young talent.
If that means trading away the second overall pick for, say, only one additional first-round pick or a pair of Day 2 picks to move down a handful of slots this season, the Lions would still be in position to get a "top" prospect while getting a surplus of young talent a little later in the draft. Taking this approach right now makes even more sense given that the team is in no rush to build around a young quarterback. Goff is a stopgap option, and any quarterback the Lions might draft in this class will be a clear project, not someone they want to get rolling right away like the quarterbacks at the top of last year's class.
Green Bay Packers
Trade Aaron Rodgers.
Whether the Packers even have a choice here is up for debate, but pulling the trigger on a Rodgers trade would qualify as a bold move, regardless of the situation. At this point, allowing Rodgers to play elsewhere is a culmination of two storylines. One, the Jordan Love bill is finally due. The Packers made their bed two years ago by drafting Love and upsetting Rodgers.
Second, 2021 was supposed to be the Packers' year. It was Rodgers and Davante Adams' self-proclaimed "Last Dance." Considering all of the team's impending free agents and its cap-space situation, it would take a miracle for the 2022 roster to be up to par with the 2021 roster -- a roster that still fell short of the NFC Championship Game. Rodgers was already disgruntled playing the 2021 season, and it's tough to imagine he would be willing to do that again with a theoretically weaker roster. It's time for the Packers to move on to the next era and build for the future, and Rodgers would earn them a huge return.
Minnesota Vikings
Let Anthony Barr walk.
A healthy Barr is still a good player. If the Vikings were running it back for another season with Mike Zimmer and his staff, it would make sense to keep him. He knows the defense and has proven to be effective on the blitzes Zimmer so dearly loves. However, with Zimmer out and Barr coming up on 30 years old next month, it might be best for both sides to have a clean cut.
Barr earned about $8.65 million last year, and it's unlikely he would take less than that now. Seeing as the Vikings are not likely to be strong contenders in the next year or two given all the roster turnover, re-signing a linebacker to an expensive contract heading into his thirties does not feel like the best use of resources.
-- Derrik Klassen
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Trade Grady Jarrett.
It is the Falcons, not the Saints, who are in the worst salary-cap situation in the NFC South. Oh, sure, New Orleans is $76 million over the cap and Atlanta only $7 million, but the Saints planned to be in this situation and left themselves a lot of contracts to rework and manipulate to keep their corps together.
The Falcons, on the other hand, have put themselves in a significant bind with their 2018 extensions, and the bills are coming due. Their cap deficit nearly doubles to $13 million when you take into account needing to sign the 2022 draft class and filling out a full 53-man roster, and they simply do not have the flexibility to get out of it. They have a stars-and-scrubs salary structure, without the success you hope that brings.
Atlanta has three players among the 30 highest cap hits in 2022, tied for the most in the league. Matt Ryan and Jake Matthews alone account for 35% of the 2022 cap -- and worse than that, half of it is already prorated bonus money and can't be moved around via salary-cap tricks. Even if the Falcons did restructure Ryan's deal, they would still be over the cap and face a $55 million cap hit for Ryan in 2023, when he will be 38; not exactly ideal for a player who hasn't cracked the top 10 in passing DVOA since 2018. The Falcons could trade away Deion Jones and/or Ridley, but neither of those moves would, on its own, get Atlanta back into the green, salary-cap-wise.
That leaves Jarrett as the Falcons' best chance to get out of the salary-cap morass they set upon themselves back in 2018. They can't simply restructure his deal. Jarrett is entering the final year of his contract; there are no more years to restructure. That means Atlanta must cut, extend or trade Jarrett -- and extending him on its own also doesn't get the team under the salary cap. As painful as it would be for the Falcons to lose one of their six or so good players, trading a 28-year-old multiple-time Pro Bowler for a premium draft pick and $16.5 million in salary-cap relief might be making the best out of terrible options, allowing them to actually begin the rebuild they'll need in the post-Ryan era, which should begin in February 2023.
Carolina Panthers
Trade for Jimmy Garoppolo.
Trading for Garoppolo is not, in and of itself, a bold move. In fact, for most teams, this is the fallback position. Can't find a way to pry Russell Wilson free, or don't feel like gambling on Deshaun Watson? Look for Jimmy G! What makes it a bold move for Carolina would be what it would have to give up to get him.
Best estimates of a Garoppolo deal have it looking similar to the deal for Carson Wentz last offseason -- a Day 2 pick this year, with a conditional pick in 2023 based on Garoppolo's health and/or team success. That's a problem for Carolina, which lacks a second-round pick thanks to the Sam Darnold trade and a third-round pick due to the CJ Henderson trade. To get Garoppolo, they would have to either persuade San Francisco to take a package of players -- Kyle Shanahan can unlock Darnold's potential, right? -- or go ahead and outbid everyone else by offering up the No. 6 pick in the draft.
Garoppolo would be a massive improvement on the quarterback situation Carolina was saddled with last season. His willingness and ability to throw over the middle to set up long YAC plays would be a boon for Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore, and they would open up a new element of the offense for new coordinator Ben McAdoo, who wants to run that West Coast, horizontal-stretch offense. The fit makes a ton of sense, and in a division with as many question marks as the 2022 NFC South, it might be enough to give the Panthers the division title. But trading a top-10 pick for Garoppolo, no matter what else is included in the deal, is the very definition of a "bold" move.
New Orleans Saints
Trade Alvin Kamara.
Our initial choice for a bold move was to trade Michael Thomas for a package including a first-round pick, saving a little bit of salary and letting someone else take the risk on Thomas ever returning to his pre-injury form. That fell through when the Saints restructured Thomas' contract at the end of February, turning salary into bonus and tacking on void years to shunt Thomas' financial impact down the road. Trading him would now cost the Saints salary-cap room in a year when they absolutely cannot afford it.
So instead, we slide down the list of talented players and land on Kamara. He was just named to his fifth straight Pro Bowl ... and finished dead last in our rushing DYAR stats. He was significantly better as a receiver, certainly, but even there he was about half as valuable as when he's really clicking. It's not fair to call Kamara the worst rusher in the league last season -- defenses could stack the box against New Orleans' poor passers in the back half of the season - but at the moment, the perception of his value is higher than his actual production.
So, in the spirit of "better to trade a guy one year too early than one year too late," the Saints could attempt to move Kamara now that his cap hit is rising from $4-5 million a year to $14 million a year. Trading him would free up $5.5 million this season as well as significant money in the future. And it's possible Kamara's versatility and past success would bring in the most trade value for any running back since 2004, when the Patriots traded a second-round pick for Corey Dillon.
We have to acknowledge Kamara's arrest on a battery charge at the Pro Bowl, but in a world where Deshaun Watson might still be traded despite the 22 lawsuits he is facing, we can't take Kamara off the table.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Blow up the future.
The Buccaneers stand at a crossroads after Tom Brady's retirement. They sit pretty much exactly at the salary-cap limit, with 25 pending free agents and no starting quarterback to speak of. The long-term strategy is to let most, if not all, of those free agents go. You promote your 2021 draft picks to starting roles, you build back up through the draft, you roll cap space into 2023 as you evaluate what you have, and you spend 2022 seeing whether Kyle Trask is a viable long-term answer. That might be enough to win a division in transition in 2022! There's an opportunity here to both compete and rebuild at the same time! And if we write a "conservative moves for all 32 NFL teams" article, the Trask-and-build strategy will be highly recommended.
Tampa Bay's other option is to destroy its finances for the middle of the decade in an attempt to win another Super Bowl right now. Simple restructures for Shaquil Barrett, Donovan Smith, Mike Evans and Lavonte David alone could free up $40 million of cap space, with $20-30 million more doable depending on just how deep the Buccaneers want to dig. That should give them more than enough room to re-sign Chris Godwin, Ryan Jensen, Carlton Davis, Alex Cappa and any other of their free agents they desired. And when you put that level of talent together, you can then entice an Aaron Rodgers, or a Russell Wilson, or a Deshaun Watson to try to force his way to your team. If it's good enough for Brady, it's good enough for them, right?
There are middle grounds between the two options, often ending with a Kirk Cousins-type under center for 2022. But the Buccaneers have the flexibility and the potential draw to remain top contenders next season despite their free-agent, salary-cap and quarterback situations. They just have to have the will to accept that the piper will have to be paid in the future; a problem for future Tampa Bay to worry about. It would cost the Buccaneers an arm and a leg to not only return their key starters but also draw a top-tier quarterback to the team, but it's all worth it if the season ends with another Vince Lombardi Trophy.
-- Bryan Knowles
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
Trade for Aaron Rodgers.
What were you expecting: something about a long snapper?
Rodgers to the Broncos has been a staple of speculative NFL fanfic since last offseason. It's even more popular now, for lots of reasons most fans can recite by heart:
The Broncos have needed a quarterback since Peyton Manning retired after the 2015 Super Bowl season.
New Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett was Rodgers' offensive coordinator in Green Bay.
The salary-cap economics are plausible, especially if Rodgers agrees to an extension that pushes the biggest cap numbers into 2023 and beyond.
The trade parameters are also plausible: The Broncos could package the No. 9 pick with some blue-chip youngsters (Bradley Chubb, Noah Fant) and a big bouquet of future picks. Teams with extra first-round picks like the Giants or Jets could potentially act as middle men.
John Elway, no longer Broncos general manager but still an important figure in the organization, can both broker the trade and keep Rodgers less than fully dissatisfied during his time in Denver.
A Rodgers-led Broncos team would, on paper, prove a worthy match for the Chiefs, Bills or Bengals.
The best reason of all for the Broncos to ardently pursue Rodgers is because no other options are all that appealing. Wilson or Watson? Sure, but the Broncos have an "in" with Rodgers because of Hackett. Draft a quarterback with the ninth pick? Heck, the Broncos might be better off giving Drew Lock another shot. Select from the Jimmy Garoppolo/Carson Wentz tier? That's precisely what the Broncos have done with Case Keenum/Joe Flacco/Teddy Bridgewater types for too long. Bide their time until a better alternative materializes? The Broncos have been biding their time for seven years, and the team's nucleus is entering its prime.
Sometimes the boldest move is the best move. Sometimes it's practically the only move worth making. The Broncos must either make a bid for Rodgers or settle for watching the Chiefs, Bills and others duke it out above them for years to come.
Kansas City Chiefs
Add one more playmaker.
No opponent can stop both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. But some opponents can slow them down by blitzing Patrick Mahomes into distraction. Others can keep their safeties deep and/or drop eight defenders into coverage and dare the Chiefs to beat them with their running game and guys like Blake Bell and Byron Pringle. Still others can do a little of both, then score enough points to turn Chiefs games into 42-36 shootouts that come down to a coin flip.
Conventional wisdom dictates that the Chiefs need to draft an edge rusher or cornerback to keep their defense from collapsing. But the Chiefs don't do conventional things. They've been seeking that one extra playmaker to push their offense past the tipping point for years: Mecole Hardman, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Josh Gordon, etc. This season, it's time to go all-in, Rams style.
All the salary-cap sorcery in the world won't help the Chiefs compete for free-agent receiver Chris Godwin or jostle Davante Adams away from the Packers. But JuJu Smith-Schuster could be lured away from a Steelers team that's not that into him with the promise of incentives and potential rings. A.J. Green would still look great against No. 2 cornerbacks in single coverage. And Cordarrelle Patterson is a free agent yet again: Imagine what he could do as a rusher/receiver/returner against opponents that cannot afford to focus on him.
If the free-agent market is too rich, there's always the trade market. Calvin Ridley will likely need a change of scenery before he's ready to return to the field. Jarvis Landry would likely relish a chance to take after Odell Beckham Jr. and go from the Browns' doghouse to the Super Bowl. Come to think of it, Beckham himself will probably be looking for a new home. And Saints mystery man Michael Thomas could be available.
A splashy trade or signing will cost the Chiefs all the cap space they can muster, plus perhaps some draft picks. But they should do everything they can to secure another Super Bowl ring before the 32-year-old Kelce fades and Hill becomes too expensive to keep and/or loses a step. And the Chiefs' defense will be easy to maintain so long as it has to hold opponents under only 30 points per game.
Los Angeles Chargers
Double dip on the D-line.
The Chargers could have been the Bengals if they could only stop the run. The Chargers' run defense ranked 30th in the NFL in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, 30th in yards allowed per game (138.9) and 27th in yards allowed per rush (4.6). They missed the playoffs -- and perhaps a chance to get hot like the Bengals and slip into the Super Bowl -- because teams such as the Broncos, Texans and Raiders were able to run right down their throats in the second half of the season.
So the Chargers need to do more than just grab a space-eating defensive tackle and call it an offseason. They need to go big on run stuffers. That means signing one with their $56-plus million in cap space AND drafting one in the first round.
49ers defensive tackle D.J. Jones might be the best value on the free-agent market at his position. Jones is big (320-plus pounds), young (he just turned 27) and solid as both a run defender and pass-rusher.
If the Chargers are seeking a splashier, shorter-term solution, Ndamukong Suh would likely accept a short, incentive-heavy deal in pursuit of another Super Bowl ring. If the Chargers structure the contracts just right, they can afford both Jones and Suh. Such are the joys of having Pro Bowl quarterback Justin Herbert on a rookie contract.
As for the draft, Georgia's Jordan Davis is the best pure run plugger, and with teams likely to be focused on edge rushers, wide receivers and cornerbacks at the top of the draft board, Davis should be there when the Chargers pick 17th overall. If the Chargers are looking for more of a two-gapping defensive end for Brandon Staley's scheme, Houston's slightly undersized but tough and tenacious Logan Hall fits the bill.
The Chargers could also look for a run-stopping linebacker but run-stopping linebackers won't do a team much good when facing Patrick Mahomes twice per year and Josh Allen and Joe Burrow in the postseason. It's up to the defensive line to control the line of scrimmage so everyone else can fly around in coverage. That's why the Chargers need as many upgrades on the D-line as they can afford.
Las Vegas Raiders
Trade Derek Carr.
There's a lot of quarterback trade chatter making the rounds, but none of it involves Carr. Josh McDaniels is reportedly ready to move forward with Carr as his quarterback, because high-strung offensive masterminds like McDaniels and Jon Gruden just love safe veteran signal callers.
If the Raiders did put Carr on the trading block, he would instantly become one of the league's most coveted options.
Carr finished eighth in Football Outsiders' passing DYAR (total value) in 2021, seventh in 2020 and sixth in 2019. He's not flashy, but he's undeniably an above-average quarterback. Teams such as the Panthers, Steelers or Commanders could float Carr as a much-needed upgrade or replacement who neither breaks the bank nor gets heckled by the peanut gallery. The Raiders, in turn, would receive much-needed draft picks and cap space so they can rebuild a roster that, last season's fluky playoff appearance aside, is depleted due to a succession of bad drafts.
Of course, no new head coach wants to plunge his team into a rebuilding period when he has other options. That's why the McDaniels-Carr era promises to be every bit as thrilling as the Gruden-Carr era. Get ready for the Raiders to continue to compete for the final wild-card berth every season!
-- Mike Tanier
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Release Cole Beasley and let Emmanuel Sanders walk in free agency.
The Bills were 13 seconds from hosting the Bengals in the AFC title game. And after Josh Allen's heroics against both the Patriots and Chiefs during the playoffs, the Bills might reasonably be loathe to make significant changes to their passing offense when just a modest surplus over the salary cap won't force the team to make them. But at just 25 years old, Allen can be a ticket to a decade of Super Bowl chances if the Bills remain financially disciplined. And if the Bills release Beasley and let Sanders leave in free agency, they could continue down a sustainable path without sacrificing production in their starting lineup.
The financial benefits of those decisions are clear. The Bills would erase the bulk of their effective salary-cap surplus with the $6.1 million they would free with Beasley's release. The on-field stability is harder to see. Beasley and Sanders caught 30% of Allen's completed passes this year (in both the regular season and playoffs). But some advanced metrics suggest that incumbent backups Isaiah McKenzie -- also a free agent but likely much cheaper to re-sign -- and Gabriel Davis would mirror or maybe exceed Beasley and Sanders' production if they saw similar playing time.
Beasley and McKenzie were ranked the top two over the past two seasons in receiving success rate among players with 50 or more regular and postseason targets: 61.8% for Beasley and 61.2% for McKenzie. And McKenzie produced a new first down on an outrageous 50.7% of his 67 targets in that time. Beasley was well back at 39.0% of his 246 targets. Davis is less of a direct skills replacement for the smaller and shiftier Sanders. But Davis' 59.7% catch and 49.4% success rates from 2021 compare favorably to Sanders' 59.2% and 51.3% rates. And Davis' 6-foot-2 and 210-pound frame and 4.54s speed could make him a standout touchdown scorer, as you might have noticed in his 201-yard, four-touchdown outburst against the Chiefs in the playoffs. Davis leads regular receivers with 12.0 touchdowns per 100 targets since he entered the league in 2020.
Miami Dolphins
Keep Tua Tagovailoa as the starting quarterback.
For the Dolphins, the boldest move might be to not make a bold move. After more than a year of Deshaun Watson rumors, Dolphins fans will likely read new head coach Mike McDaniel's compliments of his inherited quarterback Tagovailoa as lip service. What would McDaniel gain by bad-mouthing a quarterback he doesn't yet know if he can replace? But while Tagovailoa might never escape the tall shadow of his more physically gifted draft classmate, Justin Herbert, McDaniel might sincerely see Tagovailoa as a future Jimmy Garoppolo, a quarterback that McDaniel saw lead his former 49ers teams to four playoff wins and a Super Bowl berth in the last three seasons.
Tagovailoa has sometimes been criticized for the conservative, RPO-heavy offense the Dolphins ran in 2021. But with his similarly quick 2.67- versus 2.52-second average time to throw and similarly low 7.6- vs. 7.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT), Garoppolo offers evidence that an offense built on quick, short throws can be a reasonable stylistic choice. That style of offense made a lot of sense for last season's Dolphins. Quick throws hid some of the weakness of an offensive line that ranked 32nd with a 47% pass block win rate. And they highlighted Tagovailoa's strength as an accurate passer. His 0.9% completion percentage over expectation was tied for 10th best of regular quarterbacks and landed him just behind Garoppolo's 1.2%, per NFL's Next Gen Stats. With their similar peripheral numbers, Tagovailoa seems capable of matching Garoppolo's broader success with better surrounding talent and scheme changes to generate more yards after the catch. And after coaching under schematic innovator Kyle Shanahan for half a decade, McDaniel seems like an excellent candidate to make those latter changes.
New England Patriots
Draft another power back in the middle rounds.
With just $5 million of effective cap space, the Patriots might seem short-sighted to use some of their limited draft capital adding more to their strength at running back. They have a pair of starters on their offensive line, at linebacker and in their secondary hitting free agency. They could make life much easier on their sophomore quarterback Mac Jones by adding a star receiver. And they already have two starter-worthy backs in Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson and rode that duo to a 77% short-yardage rushing success rate in 2021, fourth highest in football.
But unlike conference rivals the Bills, Chiefs and Chargers, the Patriots lack a superstar quarterback talent who can elevate their offense with his physical gifts. And power backs complement Jones, who averaged 1.5 more yards per attempt with play-action than on traditional pass attempts, per Sports Info Solutions. They complement an offensive line that ranked in the upper-half in both run block and pass block win rate in 2021. And they let the Patriots zag against smaller, quicker defenses like the Bills and Chiefs have that are designed to stop each other rather than power-rushing offenses. With Harris poised to become a free agent after this season and with the high risk all backs have for injuries, the Patriots could reasonably draft a new back every year to try to sustain their rushing advantage.
Beyond their motivations, the Patriots will likely also have an excellent opportunity to add a quality power back with their third- or fourth-round draft pick. This class lacks the slam-dunk Round 1 running back prospects recent years have produced, such as Najee Harris, Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley. And the top backs on many teams' boards -- Isaiah Spiller, Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III -- are relatively small at between 210 and 220 pounds and therefore might not be on top of the Patriots' wish list. Brian Robinson Jr. from Alabama and Tyler Allgeier from BYU could be relative values and excellent fits for the Patriots offense. Robinson shined when the lights were brightest with 12 avoided tackles and 127 yards after contact against Cincinnati in the college football playoffs. And Allgeier led the FBS with 1,847 yards after contact in 2020 and 2021.
New York Jets
Draft or sign a new starting quarterback.
The Jets did not have the roster depth or talent to support rookie quarterback Zach Wilson's transition to the NFL the way the Patriots did for Mac Jones. Therefore, Wilson's meager 55.6% completion percentage, 9-11 touchdown-interception ratio or 3-10 record are not definitive evidence that he is a bust. But there is a thin line between patience and over-commitment to a sunk cost.
Wilson hung red flags such as his third-highest 3.0-second average time to throw and the disparity between the Jets' 17th best pass block win rate -- 61%, ahead of the Bucs (60%), Colts (60%), and Cowboys (58%) -- and fifth worst adjusted sack rate (8.6%). And the Arizona Cardinals provide precedent as a team that recognized and admitted its mistake in drafting a top-10 quarterback in Josh Rosen, and they quickly rebounded to win eight and 11 games in mulligan top pick Kyler Murray's second and third years in the league.
With eyes on Wilson's development in house, the Jets are better equipped to make the necessary judgment than an outsider. But in his underwhelming rookie efficiency, Wilson did not provide much reason for optimism for his potential to become an above-average NFL starter. It's normal for quarterbacks to perform 5% to 15% below average as rookies and then develop into capable starters. Andrew Luck (-5.1% passing DVOA), Joe Burrow (-7.3%), Ryan Tannehill (-9.9%), Carson Wentz (-12.0%) and Derek Carr (-14.9%) landed in that former range in their rookie seasons and have since contributed 18 above-average DVOA seasons and made nine Pro Bowls.
But it is unusual for quarterbacks to land in in the range of the rookie Wilson, who had a -32.3% passing DVOA, and later develop into plus starters. Over the last decade, similar rookie efficiency stats were primarily put up by busts such as Geno Smith (-23.6%), DeShone Kizer (-28.3%), Blake Bortles (-40.7%) and Dwayne Haskins (-42.0%). Nick Foles (-20.4%) and Jared Goff (-74.8%) produced some above-average seasons and even reached Super Bowls, but they couldn't convince their coaches to trust their successes to continue. Josh Allen (-35.9% DVOA as a rookie) is the only true rags-to-riches story at the position in recent seasons. And unless the Jets see some standout traits in their expected franchise quarterback, they might shorten their rebuild if they cut their losses now and draft, sign or trade for a replacement..
-- Scott Spratt
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
Sign J.C. Jackson.
Of all the injuries in Baltimore in 2021, perhaps the most impactful was the torn ACL suffered by cornerback Marcus Peters. His absence left Marlon Humphrey as the team's lone top-notch corner, and Humphrey struggled with the weekly weight on his shoulders before he too was lost to injury.
The Ravens have said Peters is in their 2022 plans, but he is 29 coming off serious injury, has a cap hit over $15 million and is an unrestricted free agent after the season. While he has apparently been a solid teammate in Baltimore, Peters has a history of drama, which is why Jalen Ramsey was the Rams No. 1 corner the last two seasons instead of Peters, whom L.A. couldn't wait to unload.
The Ravens would be better served to likewise ditch Peters and go after the top man corner available in free agency -- and perhaps the best in all of football, including Ramsey. Jackson had eight interceptions and was third in the league with -27.1 in targeted EPA according to NFL's Next Gen Stats. While Jackson struggles in zone schemes, he is tailor made for the press man-to-man Baltimore likes to use when it has two shutdown corners on the perimeter. Jackson's presence would considerably ease Humphrey's burden and would help the Ravens better match up with the Bengals, who torched them through the air in a pair of 2021 matchups.
All of this assumes that new defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald doesn't take it to the streets and radically change the Ravens system. Given that he helped install the current schemes under now-departed Wink Martindale before heading for the DC job at Michigan, it seems unlikely. Regardless, players of Jackson's ability are why coaches should remain flexible when it comes to schemes. He won't be cheap, and Baltimore might have to cut back elsewhere to make him fit, but the impact on their secondary would be worth it.
Cincinnati Bengals
Sign Chandler Jones.
Yes, we know-the Bengals need to sign 47 offensive linemen, and then draft another 47. Guess what? They drafted three last season, and signed a starter in free agency (right tackle Riley Reiff, whose midseason injury quietly had a massive, deleterious effect on the rest of the line). What effect did that have? Of course, they won't stand pat up front -- between free agency and the draft, Cincinnati will no doubt bring in 3-5 new players of varying talent and paycheck and have them compete with the incumbents.
But addressing an obvious need is not a bold move. Going after a star at a position that subtly needs help is.
The eight postseason interceptions the Bengals recorded on the way to a crushingly narrow defeat in Super Bowl LVI served to obscure the fact that their pass defense wasn't very good in 2021.
They finished 24th in DVOA, and much of that can be attributed to the lack of consistent pass rush. Yes, they had a seemingly impressive 42 sacks, led by Trey Hendrickson's 14, a new franchise record (if you don't count Coy Bacon's unofficial 22 sacks in 1977). But adjust for schedule and how often they faced pass plays and the Bengals' adjusted sack rate was just 6.4%, or 19th in the league. Hendrickson and fellow end Sam Hubbard played extremely hard, but depth was an issue, and when Hendrickson was off the field opposing quarterbacks summoned for tea and crumpets in the pocket.
Enter free agent-to-be Jones, who bounced back from the biceps injury that cost him most of 2020 to record 10.5 sacks with Arizona, hitting double-digits for the seventh time in his 10-year career. Jones is a reliable non-stop pressure machine and shows few signs of slowing at age 31. His age would in fact allow the Bengals to likely get him for a shorter and less expensive deal, allowing the team to make it rain on pass protectors as well.
An argument can be made that Cincinnati should go after another cornerback, but the problem is, the two top corners likely available, Jackson and Carolina's Stephon Gilmore, are far better in man coverage schemes than the zone-heavy defenses run by Lou Anarumo in Cincinnati. What the Bengals really need is another big-time pass-rusher, especially one who, like Jones and unlike Hendrickson, is stout against the run as well. Hubbard -- as he has done often in his career -- can kick inside on passing downs to play over a guard to give Cincy's pass rush an extra boost.
Cleveland Browns
Rid themselves of Baker Mayfield -- and go for broke by acquiring the top QB-WR combo in the league.
The safe play is to do nothing. Let Baker Mayfield play out his fifth year at a manageable (just under $19 million) cost, and then make a decision down the road, when Baker has either played his way into a new deal or the pathway will be clear to jettisoning him. The snag with that plan is the strong likelihood that Mayfield won't hit either end of the bell curve. He will probably be better than his injury-racked 2021, when he finished 23 out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks in both DYAR and DVOA.
But by now it should be apparent that the Progressive spokesman has a ceiling that is significantly lower than star AFC passers such as Patrick Mahomes and Allen. A season spent allowing the strong Cleveland roster to prop Mayfield up to artificial but limited heights is another season where the Browns are kidding themselves, while true superstars Myles Garrett, Nick Chubb and Denzel Ward add more mileage to their odometers in vain pursuit of a title. Subsequently extending him at MSRP costs is even more foolish.
So the time is now to unload Mayfield. But what to do with him? Wanna get nuts? How about including him in a blockbuster package deal for both Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams?
That got your attention. Rodgers is increasingly a lost soul searching for meaning to his football life. Bringing a championship to the long-suffering fans in Browns Town would (maybe) be enough of a goal to satisfy his yearnings. Meanwhile, Adams is likely headed for the franchise tag in Green Bay, but a sign-and-trade is equally likely, and the two players seem joined at the hip.
What would it take to get the twin superstars to Lake Erie? Mayfield, obviously, plus let's say five draft picks, including at least two first-rounders. A young replacement wideout like Donovan Peoples-Jones or Anthony Schwartz. And any defensive player Cleveland has outside of Garrett, Ward and the two rookies who flashed in 2021, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Greg Newsome II.
That's a hefty package, but obviously one well worth it to bring in the two-time defending Most Valuable Player and his favorite target. Despite a strong roster, Cleveland is going nowhere without a better passing attack. In one bold stroke, this move would give the Browns one of, if not the best, aerial attacks in the sport, while disposing the Mayfield dilemma once and for all.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Trade for Jimmy Garoppolo.
The Niners' signal-caller is much better than his national perception would have you believe. Garoppolo was 10th in Football Outsiders' DYAR (total value) metric in 2021 -- higher than Allen, Burrow and Russell Wilson. Ask Kyle Shanahan (35-16 with Garoppolo at the helm, 8-28 without him, counting playoffs) about his value.
Yes, he missed the bomb that might have won the Niners Super Bowl LIV. Yes, he is good for a couple of "what the heck was that??" throws per game. Yes, he isn't as gifted as a Rodgers or a Matthew Stafford. What Garoppolo is is effective, clutch (the Niners were fifth in offensive DVOA in the second half of games and seventh in "late and close" situations), and better than either Mason Rudolph or Haskins, currently the Pittsburgh quarterbacks.
But with such a significant sunk cost already plowed into acquiring Trey Lance, San Francisco is in a pickle of its own brining. They simply have to move on and let Lance boil, while taking what they can get for Garoppolo. Enter the Steelers. Outgoing GM Kevin Colbert surely won't want to leave his beloved franchise without any sort of successor to Ben Roethlisberger, and since Colbert is leaving after the 2022 draft, dealing away future picks won't hurt him nearly as much. 49ers will ask for a first-rounder, but a second and fifth in 2022 and a third in 2023 probably gets the job done.
Pittsburgh has some interesting young pieces on offense -- Najee Harris, Pat Freiermuth, Diontae Johnson -- who Garoppolo can make better. The offensive line, especially compared to what he had by the Bay (or more accurately, Silicon Valley), is a concern, but unlike Roethlisberger, who at the end had the mobility of a bank safe, Garoppolo is agile enough to somewhat mitigate the lack of talent up front. And with Mike Tomlin as his coach, he is guaranteed at least a .500 record.
After enjoying a decade and a half of Hall of Fame-level quarterback play, the Steelers found out how the other half lived over the last couple of seasons. Garoppolo is hardly prime Roethlisberger, but he should provide well above-average play at the position while Colbert's successor hunts for Big Ben's successor.
-- Robert Weintraub
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans
Trade back and draft Kayvon Thibodeaux with the No. 6 overall pick.
The Texans are in an interesting spot with the third pick in the upcoming draft. This is a premium spot to get a top-end talent, but the Texans have a lot of holes on their roster. With eight picks in the upcoming draft, they have a lot of capital to move around on a draft board that has been described by most scouts as "deep". In particular, if they can coax a team into trading up for a quarterback, they'll have more draft capital on the first two days.
In this scenario, the Carolina Panthers are the lucky team to trade up with Houston to draft their quarterback of the future. The Texans slide to the sixth pick, and they can take a guy like Thibodeaux, who has the athleticism and production to be the first overall pick but has slid down draft boards. That way, the Texans can still get a top-end talent while also stockpiling picks to use as they reload their roster.
Indianapolis Colts
Trade for Kirk Cousins.
Carson Wentz isn't good. As ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported, the Colts seem to be looking to trade or release Wentz before the March 18 deadline, in what he called a "one-year marriage gone wrong." Wentz's erratic play and overall inability to make the Colts offense better resulted in Indianapolis missing the playoffs, despite an unreal amount of luck in the turnover category and a career season from Jonathan Taylor.
Now the question here becomes, which team can be convinced that Wentz can be somewhat serviceable and would also take on his contract ($50 million guaranteed)? There's some indication that the Vikings could be willing to move on from Cousins in the offseason. Cousins isn't a world-beater at all, but he should be able to keep a steady hand in the Colts offense, which has a superstar in Taylor as well as a solid defense that will return stars such as Darius Leonard and DeForest Buckner.
Of course, Cousins' problem is his own contract, but in Indianapolis he should help the Colts get back into the playoffs and is a stark upgrade over Wentz. The Vikings are bringing in a new head coach in Kevin O'Connell, and with Wentz in tow, O'Connell could see if he can make something out of the quarterback. If not, the Vikings should have an early draft pick in a 2023 draft class that is shaping up to be promising.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Sign Davante Adams.
Jacksonville has the third most cap space in the NFL and needs to give young quarterback Trevor Lawrence a true No. 1 target outside. If Adams indeed does leave Green Bay, this would be the rare chance for a team to sign arguably the best wide receiver in football. Adams was second in receiving DYAR last season among wide receivers, and his ability to create space and win in man coverage would help significantly in Lawrence's development.
Jacksonville's wide receiver room was among the worst in the league, ranking sixth in the NFL in drops and struggling to get open against opposing defenses. Most of the time they were running into each other rather than open spaces in zone coverage. With Adams on the roster, new Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson can create an offense that caters to Lawrence's high-end traits, with Adams' skills opening things up for the rest of Jacksonville's receivers. In the event that Adams leaves the Packers, the Jaguars should be the first team on the phone.
Tennessee Titans
Trade for Aaron Rodgers.
The Titans' title window is open right now. With a defense that slowly picked up steam as the season went on, and players such as A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry in the primes of their careers, now is the time for the Titans to make a serious move towards winning a Super Bowl. The question still remains: Can they do that with Tannehill at quarterback?
In 2021, Tannehill ranked just 27th in Football Outsiders' DYAR and DVOA metric among quarterbacks (minimum 200 passes), and his three divisional-round turnovers against the Bengals killed all momentum the Titans seemed to have. The Titans need a quarterback who can elevate his play outside of structure and succeed even if Henry isn't having the best game.
Enter Rodgers. The disgruntled Packers quarterback just won his second consecutive MVP and was first in DVOA among quarterbacks. There are reports that Rodgers is working with the Packers on a new deal, but as we know, things fall through quickly in the NFL. Rodgers on the Titans would immediately make Tennessee one of the favorites, if not the favorite to win the title next season, and could help extend the careers of Henry and Julio Jones. If Rodgers truly isn't happy in Green Bay, the Titans should swing for the fences and trade for Rodgers in an attempt to win a title while they still have the players to do it.
-- J.P. Acosta