NFL free agency is, at essence, an elementary school game. Musical chairs.
Each year, a certain number of teams decide they will spend on a position based on the crop of talent available. The best players get scooped up by those teams, after which the money can dry up quickly.
The very good players left waiting must decide whether to take a one-year deal with high upside or continue waiting, hoping injuries at their position or draft miscues re-ignite the market. Those under rookie deals, on the trading block or finishing veteran contracts all prep for this calculation, searching for a chair when the music stops (preferably with a hefty bag of money on it). This is especially true for players offered a contract a year before hitting free agency. They weigh the pros-cons of accepting a safe deal vs. playing it out knowing injury or performance decline are variables.
These are the dreams and expectations on the line starting this week at the NFL scouting combine, where player agents will huddle with team executives to gauge which players have the most value. We identified eight case studies of players who either took a risk or were forced into risk, with a look at how they fared -- starting with Myles Garrett's bookend in Cleveland.
PLAYERS WHO TOOK ONE-YEAR PROVE-IT DEALS
Jadeveon Clowney, DE, Cleveland Browns
Clowney eschewed the long-term deal in 2020 free agency, presumably because he sought a high number. Some around the league believed that number was $18-20 million per year. But that money never came. Whispers of a knee issue persisted (he's healthy now). And Clowney waited until Sept. 6 to sign with the Tennessee Titans on a one-year deal.
The Browns always lurked. They tried to sign Clowney to a multiyear deal that offseason, then doubled down on a one-year pact in 2021. Clowney played well for them, producing nine sacks, two forced fumbles and 38 first pressures. Extending him another year -- or longer -- is totally feasible.
So here's the calculation: Clowney made a total of $20.2 million over those two one-year deals, which falls short of typical two-year payouts for Pro Bowl defensive ends. But now he's positioned to offset at least some of that with big earnings in 2022 and 2023.
As a hybrid edge rusher/inside player, Clowney could command double-digit millions per year with Cleveland or another suitor. He turned 29 this month, so he should have more productive years. Keep an eye on Baltimore, where Clowney could reunite with defensive line coach Anthony Weaver, who coached him in Houston.
Lesson learned: The one-year deal can be helpful. Playing well in Cleveland at least gives Clowney the option to secure the long-term investment he covets. There's reason to believe he can be a $10-million-or-more player in this market. Did he make a bad decision by not taking the best offer two years ago? Perhaps. But it's hard to blame him for taking the latest one-year deal.
Haason Reddick, OLB, Carolina Panthers
Despite 12.5 sacks in 2020, the Cardinals didn't appear to make a big push to sign Reddick to a sizable extension. A few days into free agency, Reddick opted for a one-year, $6 million deal with Carolina, reuniting him with his Temple coach, Matt Rhule.
Reddick delivered on the field once again, recording 11 sacks as a bookend pass-rusher to Brian Burns, and he should be well-positioned for a long-term deal now. Two straight years of double-digit sacks usually pays big.
Lesson learned: Don't sign an unnecessary two-year deal. Reddick's value is higher now than it was a year ago, so he should be pleased that he didn't lock himself into a flimsy second year in Carolina for 2022. Instead, he is free to roam and cash in. The pass-rush market is still materializing, but the buzz in Indianapolis is Reddick will be somewhere high in the pecking order. Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer predicted as much this week. Whether that's $12 or $15 million is still uncertain, but it definitely won't be $6 million.
PLAYERS WHO DIDN'T REACH AN EXTENSION AGREEMENT
Jessie Bates III, S, Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals will most certainly place the franchise tag on Bates at around $13 million per year, providing the player with more leverage than he had six months ago. A top young safety, he likely wanted a deal commensurate with the best players at his position, a market that, at the time, still hovered around $15 million per year. Cincinnati couldn't -- or chose not to -- get close, so Bates decided to enter his contract year despite some frustration.
That market has since ballooned to $17-plus million, thanks to deals for Jamal Adams, Justin Simmons and others. The tag is far lower than that, but Bates can wait to sign the tag as a form of protest, applying pressure on Cincinnati to come correct.
Bates is a catalyst and a leader on an AFC-champion defense. Those are the players you keep around.
Lesson learned: The tag can be your friend. Close to $14 million for one season of football isn't a bad gig, and Bates can be strategic here. The Bengals know a long-term deal for Bates will resonate in the locker room, so best efforts must be made.
Bradley Bozeman, C, Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens and Bozeman talked about a potential deal at points in 2021, and Baltimore would like to extend him. But a difference in perceived value is usually what prevents these deals from happening, and Bozeman, a free agent in March, believes he's much more than an average center. With a 73.3 Pro Football Focus grade and one penalty in 1,000-plus offensive snaps, he's right.
Eight centers make $10 million annually, and Bozeman will attempt to become the ninth. He might just hit that number. Tampa Bay's Ryan Jensen is the top center on the market, and Bozeman will fall somewhere behind him.
Lesson learned: Eschewing the team's offer is classic risk-reward. Baltimore didn't have a huge number on Bozeman, so the comfort of staying with the team won't offset the low price tag. But another team has to step up to make the gamble worth it. The good news for Bozeman is the Bengals, Jets, Giants and Panthers are among teams looking for a center, and they can't all sign Ryan Jensen.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
Adams, the top free agent of 2022, could have taken whatever Green Bay was willing to offer over the summer. Perhaps the Packers could have dressed up a deal to make it look like he's the highest-paid receiver. But Adams stuck to his conviction, knowing that DeAndre Hopkins' two-year, $54 million extension last year set the market for him (which is to ignore that Hopkins had three years left on his original deal, which Green Bay will argue watered down that $54 million).
None of that really matters much after Adams put together another amazing (and healthy) season. What's clear is he is set up to earn a really strong three-year deal with huge guarantees. The Packers are widely expected to franchise-tag him, but that should be a placeholder for a long-term deal. And if Adams wants to make things difficult, he won't sign the tag at all, even in absence of a deal by the July 15 deadline.
Lesson learned: OK, the tag is not always your friend. Adams would make a killing as a free agent, but there's really no buzz about his future because everyone expects Green Bay to tag him. In that scenario, he would make close to $20 million for one season of work. But he's worth way more than that on a per-year average. So Adams will let it be known that the tag has no bearing on his market, and he might let it be known that he has zero interest in playing on the tag.
PLAYERS WHO SOUGHT A TRADE AHEAD OF FREE AGENCY
Zach Ertz, TE, Arizona Cardinals
Ertz technically didn't take a risk; he was traded. But the Philadelphia Eagles knew throughout the offseason that Ertz wanted a trade, a desire that inherently carried risk due to his comfort and production in Philadelphia, where he made three Pro Bowls.
Ertz had the foresight to try to get with an elite quarterback for the first time in his career and see what happens. With Kyler Murray, Ertz caught 56 passes for 574 yards after entering Arizona's lineup in Week 7, third among tight ends during that span. While the Eagles weren't utilizing the two-tight-end sets in the passing game as Ertz had envisioned, the Cardinals needed a primary option for Murray over the middle.
At age 31, Ertz doesn't have prime years on his side like free-agent tight ends Dalton Schultz and Mike Gesicki. But he's primed to help a contender on a good contract -- thanks in part to his move to the Valley.
Lesson learned: Play both sides. Ertz made it clear he wanted a trade but remained a good teammate in Philadelphia and was all-in on helping the Eagles. Going nuclear could have affected his morale with the team, his production and thus his trade value. Now, after a successful stint in Arizona, there's buzz out of the combine that the Cardinals will re-sign Ertz to an extension. In that case, Ertz will have played out a five-year, $42 million deal and should come in at a strong number this month. A new contract at his current clip isn't much to ask, and he might get more. Considering his value could have cratered in Philadelphia, where bitterness persisted from the offseason, then holding out hope for a trade was the right move.
Orlando Brown Jr., OT, Kansas City Chiefs
Set on playing left tackle in the NFL, Brown absorbed risk by requesting a trade from Baltimore last offseason. And to facilitate a trade, Brown -- then the Ravens' right tackle opposite Ronnie Stanley -- was willing to forgo a new deal and join the Chiefs entering a contract year. The Chiefs had the safety net of a 2022 franchise tag at $16.7 million.
But Brown has parlayed that contract year into a Pro Bowl performance, upping his value. Assuming Kansas City tags him, Brown and the Chiefs have four-plus months to hammer out a long-term deal.
Trent Williams sits atop the left tackle market at around $23 million per year. While that number would be tough to reach, Brown should earn a deal commensurate with his skill set and pedigree. And the tag number is a good start.
Lesson learned: Leverage a better situation. Brown was in a Baltimore offense tailored to his skill set as an elite run-blocker. But Brown saw more for himself: left tackle prestige and money. The Ravens wouldn't give him that. Now, at the least, he gets franchise tagged and sets himself up nicely in 2022 or 2023 on big long-term money.
PLAYERS WHO RESTRUCTURED AND HIT FREE AGENCY QUICKER
Anthony Barr, ILB, Minnesota Vikings
Last year's lower salary cap due to the impacts of COVID-19 forced teams to get creative in saving space. So the Vikings asked Barr to take a pay cut, from $12.3 million to $8.65 million, but with a caveat that helps the player: The team guaranteed the money and trimmed two years off his contract, making him a 2022 free agent.
Barr likely agreed to this to regain some level of control over his career. Instead of entering a lame-duck year on a bloated salary that would result in a cap casualty, Barr can prepare for free agency outright.
And the Vikings were pleased with the play of Barr, who finished with 72 tackles, 2.5 sacks and three interceptions in 11 games. He battled through injuries and finished the year well. Durability and age (he turns 30 this month) are concerns, but Barr is still a high-pedigree player who will have a market.
Lesson learned: It never hurts to get to free agency faster. Had Barr not restructured, he'd be a cap casualty with little control over when he'd actually be free to look around. Now, he takes back the control.
Also under consideration
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns: Njoku will have a booming market, with multiple execs expecting him to make more than $10 million per year on a new deal. That's pretty good for a player who once requested a trade then rescinded it, knowing his enormous skill set would shine through eventually.
De'Vondre Campbell, ILB, Green Bay Packers: He parlayed a minimum deal into an All-Pro performance. It's safe to say the price just went way up for Green Bay.