Perhaps the biggest storylines of the 2022 NFL offseason will center on quarterback movement. We've heard plenty about Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, but will either actually change teams? A handful of other quarterbacks might also be right in the mix of trade conversations. Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield have varying levels of trade intrigue. With the Super Bowl behind us -- and free agency less than a month away -- the dominoes should start to fall soon. What is the latest on these eight quarterbacks and their futures?
We asked our NFL insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano, along with our NFL Nation reporters covering each team, to take a close look at each signal-caller's situation and what we know right now. What's the latest word on each looming decision? Could Rodgers, Wilson and/or any of the other talented quarterbacks really get moved? Our reporters dive in on why or why not, and where things stand at the moment. Let's start with the biggest name -- the reigning MVP -- and what is going on in Green Bay.
Jump to:
Rodgers | Wilson | Watson | Garoppolo
Cousins | Wentz | Carr | Mayfield
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Graziano: I feel like it doesn't much matter what we say or even what the Packers say. All that matters is what we (eventually) hear from Rodgers himself. The contract was reworked in a way that gives him a great deal of control over his own situation. If he won't agree to an extension or restructure, the Packers pretty much have to trade him. So the questions here are all for Rodgers, who has made it clear ever since showing up for training camp last year that we shouldn't take for granted the idea that he has a future in Green Bay. He is image-conscious, so if he does want to leave, he'll have to find ways to set it up so he doesn't look like the bad guy. The team seems to be getting ahead of him on that, right?
Rob Demovsky, Packers reporter: The Packers can't make it any clearer that they want Rodgers back. In fact, you might say they've gone overboard, with the Super Bowl morning sourced reports saying the Packers are ready to go "all-in" to keep Rodgers. You wonder if that was overkill and will tick off Rodgers, who seemed to be in a good place with the organization based on his comments after winning MVP. But the Packers are taking the stance that they're not going to be the bad guys this time around, like many viewed them when Brett Favre briefly retired in 2008 and then decided he wanted to play again -- only to be rebuffed and traded to the Jets.
Fowler: All great points. Perception is delicate for both sides. Although the Packers seem genuine in their belief that they offer Rodgers the best place to win, that's for him to decide. Now let's shake out the timing of this. Rodgers wants to give Green Bay adequate time to plan, and receiver Davante Adams is a big part of those plans. That's why the franchise tag window (Feb. 22-March 8) looms large here. That seems to be the window. Rodgers will want to give Green Bay enough time to accommodate his contract -- whether he's traded or stays -- while budgeting for life with or without Adams, who would see a raise on the tag but probably wouldn't be happy about it.
What Rodgers decides greatly impacts Adams, because Green Bay might decide to reset with young receivers around Jordan Love if Rodgers does leave. Dan, how do you see these dominoes falling? Are Adams and Rodgers aligned in their plans?
Graziano: Adams' franchise tag would actually be $20.145 million, because it's 120% of his current year's cap number. So that's even worse for the Packers. Ideally, they could sign him to a long-term deal before the league year opens and carry him on a lower cap number than that. But to do that, they'd have to be able, I would think, to give him some answers about Rodgers' situation. We know Adams and Rodgers have talked about their plans to each other, but it's hard to know how aligned they are because we don't know where Rodgers will end up. If it's the Broncos, for example, they're already pretty leveraged at the receiver position. But man ... if a team could trade for Rodgers and sign Adams, we'd be talking about "winning the offseason," would we not?
Demovsky: And that team might also be winning the next regular season. But can Rodgers really win big in the playoffs anymore and get to another Super Bowl? It seems like it has been a while since he put together a sustained run of great play in the postseason. There have been games here and there -- the Dallas playoff games in 2014 and 2016, for example -- in which he has been regular-season Rodgers in the postseason, but for some reason he hasn't been great all that often in the playoffs since the 2010 season Super Bowl run. He's 7-9 in his past 16 playoff games. Yes, he's still spectacular from September through December, but even some within the Packers organization wonder if he can still do it in January and February. I wonder if that's the feeling from people with other teams around the league.
Fowler: That playoff record is eye-opening, Rob. It's not like his numbers decline dramatically in the postseason, with 45 touchdowns to 13 interceptions for his career. I asked a few execs about this. One said opposing pass rushes have been an issue; the Bucs and 49ers, the opponents in Rodgers' past three playoff losses, are stacked up front and got after him. Another exec said playoff football is hard -- he's not playing NFC North teams -- and those losses aren't all on him. Defense and special teams didn't always help him. There's also something to be said for quarterbacks lifting the play of others in crucial moments, though that was the knock on Matthew Stafford before his Super Bowl run with Rams. We've seen Rodgers elevate the team, so we know he can do it.
Either way, based on the Packers' tone, here's to thinking they are willing to take their chances with that postseason record if it means getting their MVP back. Where does all of this leave Love? From the outside, it's still uncertain what exactly the team has in him.
Demovsky: The Packers would have liked to have seen more from him in that midseason start against the Chiefs. when Rodgers had COVID-19 (Love went 19-of-34 for 190 yards, one TD and one interception). Then again, they surely would have wanted to see more from him over the past 20-some months since they drafted him. Other than one day during a minicamp practice in June of last year, there haven't been many standout performances.
That doesn't mean the Packers are ready to give up on him, though. After all, Rodgers didn't show much until his third season as Favre's backup. If Rodgers leaves, don't be surprised if the Packers do what they did in 2008, when Rodgers took over. That year they drafted quarterbacks in both the second round (Brian Brohm) and seventh round (Matt Flynn). If Rodgers does return, and it's for several more years, then the Packers' best hope is that Love plays well this summer in the preseason games to increase his trade value for the following offseason.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Fowler: Wilson and Seattle enter a crucial offseason, as both sides must decide whether this marriage can work in 2022. Early indications from people within the organization are that Wilson being dealt would be a pretty big surprise. The NFC will be wide open next year, and Seattle believes Wilson will have a bounce-back season in the second year of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's system.
Seattle has discussed Wilson's availability with teams before, and if Wilson feels the roster isn't close to Super Bowl-ready -- remember, he wants his personnel input to be valued -- he could turn his frustration into a trade request. But there's no evidence he's going to do that. Brady, where do you see this going with Wilson, a 2024 free agent due $24 million in total this year?
Brady Henderson, Seahawks reporter: I also get the sense that a trade this offseason is unlikely but not entirely out of the question. There's a lot that would have to come together from multiple sides for it to happen.
The Seahawks would have to get a good enough offer -- three first-round picks might be the starting point -- that gives them a clear path to their next franchise quarterback. And because Wilson has a no-trade clause, that offer would have to come from a team that he finds attractive, which likely narrows the field of possibilities down to only a handful, if that. His list at this time last year included the Cowboys, Bears, Raiders and Saints, but there's no given that stands. From the Seahawks' standpoint, even a huge haul of draft picks might not put them in position to find Wilson's replacement in such a bad draft for quarterbacks.
Plus, the tensions that bubbled to the surface last offseason seem to have cooled, so Wilson might not force the issue. He has said multiple times that his hope is to stay, but his non-definitive wording -- remember, his no-trade clause could guarantee he stays -- seems to convey some uncertainty as to how he'll feel later. And a comment from coach Pete Carroll after the season strongly suggested that the Seahawks will listen to trade offers. So you can't rule anything out.
Graziano: Well, I never like to rule anything out. Seriously. When I'm out to dinner with people, I want everyone else to order first so I can take as much time as I need to make my decision. But with that said, I always revert to "follow the money" in situations like these. Wilson has two years and $51 million in non-guaranteed money left on his contract, and my guess is that a shiny new extension with a bunch of guarantees and an average annual salary closer to what the top QBs are making these days would make him feel a lot better about the way things look in Seattle. Unless and until they do a contract extension, I'm going to keep Wilson on my list of guys who could be elsewhere in 2022.
Fowler: Yep, the money always talks. I could see Wilson playing lights-out football in 2022 under his current deal, maximizing his value even more only one year from 2024 free agency. He could dictate a lot of terms that way: trade me, give me top-level guarantees, give me top-three money, the works.
Maybe he can do that now anyway, but he's coming off an uneven year (by his standards) and missed three starts. Why not take 2022 to reset in a big way? That's partly why I expect Wilson will stay patient over the next few months and carefully watch the Seahawks' roster moves this offseason. Brady, what's your expectation about how Seattle rebuilds the roster around Wilson (or someone else) next year?
Henderson: I've gotten the impression that the Seahawks don't feel like they need a major roster shake-up in order to get back into contention after their worst season in more than a decade. Carroll has publicly tried to temper expectations of spending big in free agency, which isn't their M.O. anyway. But without a first-round pick, that seems like their best bet at adding -- and in the case of free-agent safety Quandre Diggs, keeping -- the talent they need to compete in a loaded division.
They'll have enough flexibility to be players in free agency. They have around $36 million in cap space as of now and could free up more either by moving on from linebacker Bobby Wagner (which would leave a giant hole in the middle of their defense) or altering his contract. If he's back, I highly doubt it will be on his current deal. Upgrading their offensive line has to be a priority, and not just because Wilson will be pushing hard for that, as he usually does.
They also need to add a pass-rusher and someone else on defense who can create turnovers. They can't rely on the big changes Carroll made to his coaching staff to make all the difference.
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
Graziano: There are factors at play here that don't apply in any of these other cases, and I don't want to minimize those. There are 22 active lawsuits against Watson with allegations of sexual assault and sexually inappropriate behavior during massage sessions. We don't yet know the outcome of the lawsuits. We do know he has a deposition coming up, and there's some hope that things could at least start moving toward a resolution after that happens. But we don't know how much legal trouble he'll end up in or the potential discipline from the league. And until teams know that, it's going to be hard for the Texans to get what they need to get in return for Watson.
Sarah Barshop, Texans reporter: The timing will be interesting for general manager Nick Caserio, who has made it clear by not trading Watson before the start of the 2021 season or leading up to the trade deadline that he's not going to get a deal done just to get the quarterback off the roster. As you said, Dan, there are still so many questions surrounding Watson's ability to play football next season. If the lawsuits are not settled, a trial date would not even be set until the beginning of May.
Watson also is waiting to find out whether he will face criminal charges. The Texans don't expect Watson to ever play for them again, but the closer it gets to the start of free agency and the draft, the more difficult it becomes to get a deal done that satisfies both Watson -- remember he has a no-trade clause -- and the team.
Fowler: Yeah, I agree that the Texans won't panic. They've waited this long. But it was easier to keep him under contract for $10.5 million last year. This year, the salary balloons to $35 million. No roster bonus is due in the short term, but still, that's something the Texans will want to get off their books eventually. If Watson's case gets resolved by April -- this is a big "if," but his deposition is scheduled for Feb. 22 -- then teams will have a clearer picture of what's next. Will the league suspend him? The team pursuing him will want to know. As I reported Wednesday, Tampa Bay is a team to watch. The Bucs have shown they aren't afraid of risk, and they want to keep open their championship window.
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
Fowler: Garoppolo's run with San Francisco should be commended. He won nearly 70% of his starts (31-14) and led the 49ers to four playoff wins. He completed more than 67% of his passes in each of the past three years. But with a $24.2 million salary due to Garoppolo in the last year of his deal and early pick Trey Lance waiting to play, Garoppolo appears poised to wear a new uniform in 2022. And then the real games begin: The 49ers will try to maximize Garoppolo's trade value by pretending they will keep him, and suitors will stay patient, knowing San Francisco doesn't want to keep Garoppolo's bloated salary on the books. But a lot has to play out before we get to that point.
Nick Wagoner, 49ers reporter: I think you nailed it in terms of the Niners trying to play coy. But while coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch attempted to leave the door open, at least publicly, for Garoppolo to return, the quarterback left little doubt. He expects a trade and hopes to have some say in landing in a spot he feels is best for him.
The 49ers would like to get at least one Day 2 draft pick (this year or next) for Garoppolo, along with something else. And that's with the idea that if a couple of the other big names on this list don't move, Garoppolo could be the best available option on the market. It helps the Niners' cause that there are teams in position to win now that have a need at quarterback, and that the draft class appears light on instant starters.
The Niners also know the biggest potential roadblock for a good return is Garoppolo's contract. It has just one year remaining with a $25.55 million cap charge for an acquiring team. That means an extension is all but certain to make Garoppolo fit this year (to soften that number). And that means he could have more say in his destination and, potentially, put a limit on what the Niners can fetch for him.
Graziano: One of the sneaky, underreported parts of all of this is that Garoppolo's contract included a no-trade clause for 2021 only. With the 2021 season having ended, Garoppolo no longer has any control over where he goes -- unless, as Nick pointed out, the salary is an impediment for an acquiring team and he needs to do an extension to get a trade done.
But that cap number really isn't a bad one for a competent starting quarterback in 2022. I think he's at the top of the list for teams in this market who can't get Wilson, Rodgers or Watson, and there might be some teams that prioritize him ahead of Watson due to the uncertainty around the Houston QB. The teams I keep thinking of for Garoppolo are Carolina and Washington, both teams that have a desperate need for a QB solution but for various reasons might not be able to land one of the big guys.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Courtney Cronin, Vikings reporter: The Vikings finally have their new leadership structure in place with head coach Kevin O'Connell and GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. Now Minnesota can finally get to work on solving the biggest piece of its offseason equation: Trade Cousins, let him play out the final year of his contract (which comes with a $45 million cap hit) or extend him.
The rumblings that the Vikings would consider extending Cousins to lower his cap figure to a more manageable number make sense for several reasons. It's the ultimate posturing move if they're looking to move him, for one. Considering Cousins' $35 million base salary for 2022 has already been fully guaranteed, the team needs to give off the notion that it places high value on its quarterback and isn't going to give him away unless a trade partner is willing to pay a sizable portion of what Cousins is owed and dole out considerable draft capital in return.
While O'Connell might have sold the Vikings on his vision for the offense that includes Cousins, it's fair for a new head coach to want to take command of the position under his terms -- even if that means working with Cousins for one season before moving on. From what I'm hearing, I would not be surprised to see Cousins' camp try to force the Vikings' hand by not wanting to go back to the negotiating table just yet. That means he'd play out his expensive contract or force the team to trade him.
Graziano: That's the thing about Cousins. His contract gives him so much control. He has no reason to do any kind of extension that doesn't come with the same kind of team-compromising salary guarantees his last two deals did. If they decide they have to extend him, he and his agent can insist on the exact structure he wants and continue to crush the NFL income game in ways more players should be trying to copy.
If the Vikings decide they want to trade him, that $35 million fully guaranteed salary will probably mean the acquiring team has to do an extension before agreeing to a trade, which gives him a ton of leverage as well -- unless Minnesota just wants to be rid of him and the cap hit and will take pennies on the dollar. The Vikings would save $35 million in cap space if they traded him, so if they've decided they don't want to commit to him beyond 2022 and they want to get started on whatever their new plan is right away, there'd be some motivation to sell at a discount just to be rid of the financial burden.
Cronin: If the Vikings believe they can be competitive in 2022, which ownership has been adamant about, the team will probably be willing to bite the bullet to let Cousins play out his deal before moving on. After all, the loss to Green Bay in Week 17 when Cousins was sidelined by COVID-19 is what the offense will look like if the team does not have a viable option at quarterback.
Fowler: Teams are only as good as their options, and the Vikings don't have a clear-cut alternative to Cousins. Third-round pick Kellen Mond is developmental at this stage. Many quarterbacks in this year's draft are in a similar stage. Free agents aren't upgrades. That's largely why the Vikings and Cousins continue the marriage.
But O'Connell really sold his vision for Cousins in the interview process. The sense is the coaching candidates who interviewed with Minnesota like Cousins more than GM candidates who must worry more about the big-picture implications. Something has to give.
Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts
Graziano: The Colts are really upset with the way the 2021 season ended -- and with Wentz's role in their late-season flameout. Our own Chris Mortensen reported over the weekend that he expects them to trade or release him, even though $15 million of his $22 million salary for this coming season is already fully guaranteed and the remainder becomes guaranteed on the third day of the league year.
My sense is that the Colts will pursue an upgrade and are willing to eat that $15 million if they find one. The question then is what happens to Wentz, who forced his way out of Philadelphia and to Indianapolis thinking he'd flourish under coach Frank Reich and in a less intense environment. He did not, and it's fair to wonder if any team would be willing to try him as its starter in light of that fact. But Mike, if the Colts can't find an upgrade, do you think they'd give Wentz one more shot?
Mike Wells, Colts reporter: There have been so many bread crumbs dropped, starting with the lack of commitment from Reich and GM Chris Ballard, that the end is near for Wentz in Indy. Outside of one series in Arizona on Christmas night, Wentz didn't take over and win a game for the Colts. That's inexcusable. But is there really an upgrade the Colts can find, considering the lack of trade assets (no first-round pick this year), a weak QB draft class and a mediocre free-agent group? And if I'm another team, I have to ask myself: "If Reich, with whom Wentz is close, can't fix him, can we fix him?"
Trading Wentz after just one season is the Colts' way of admitting that the move -- Indy sent the Eagles a first-rounder and a third-rounder for Wentz -- was a complete failure. And Reich will be the one impacted the most because he was the one who stuck his neck out and suggested they trade for Wentz.
Fowler: I'm admittedly having a hard time processing this one, because of the makeup of the team involved and all of the moving parts. The Colts love the draft, and they draft well. Giving up two precious picks for Wentz last offseason was a stretch for this regime. And now, after one season, they are going to deal Wentz for lesser value only to relinquish more draft capital for a new QB via trade?
Whether or not they want to move on from Wentz, the logistics are challenging to overcome, unless there's a free agent or draft pick the Colts believe can help them win. Jim Irsay sounded like an exasperated owner in his comments after the Week 18 Jacksonville loss, so maybe his impatience forces Ballard into action. But without a clear upgrade available, a desperation move doesn't bode well for Indy's build-through-the-draft plan.
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
Fowler: After years of waiting, new coach Josh McDaniels most likely doesn't take the Raiders job without feeling really good about the quarterback outlook. Carr was more of a selling point than a hindrance for coaches interviewing for the Raiders job. He's not perfect, but many high-end evaluators consider him a top-12 passer. And with a cap hit of $19.8 million in the final year of his deal, extending Carr would be relatively easy for McDaniels and new GM Dave Ziegler. Paul, how do you expect this offseason to play out with Carr and Las Vegas?
Paul Gutierrez, Raiders reporter: Talk about a loaded question. I expect a whole lot of hurrying up and waiting, though the ultimate decision will belong to McDaniels and Ziegler. Sure, the presence of a franchise QB on the roster had to be alluring in getting them to pull up their New England stakes to head to Southern Nevada, but so, too, would the bounty Carr might reap in a trade. Especially if Carr's skill set doesn't exactly transfer into McDaniels' scheme.
Despite what you might have heard or read, former coach Jon Gruden was Carr's biggest supporter in the Raiders' building, and while owner Mark Davis insists this isn't a rebuild to go the Patriot Way, it sure feels like one. And it would most definitely be one should the Raiders choose to move on from the guy who holds virtually every passing record in franchise history but has a career record of just 57-70 and has yet to win a playoff game in eight seasons.
Carr is entering the final year of the five-year, $125 million extension, and all of his guaranteed money is paid out. A top-of-the-market extension seems in the offing, just to give both player and regime a chance to see how they work together. Maybe even just one or two extra seasons. Still, could you blame McDaniels and Ziegler for blinking if a team were to offer at least a first-rounder for Carr to help jump-start their own path in Las Vegas?
Graziano: Not at all -- especially considering that, as you laid out, it's not about just keeping Carr. It's about extending his contract and committing to him long term at big money. And that might well be the right decision! Carr is a good quarterback! But the very existence of this discussion is proof that this could be a very interesting quarterback market.
It's entirely possible McDaniels and Ziegler have someone else in mind they'd consider an upgrade. If they don't, I would predict very strongly that they stick with Carr, because Jeremy is right. McDaniels wasn't going to hop back into head coaching in a spot where he couldn't win right away. With all that went wrong in Denver and then him flaking out on the Colts a couple of years ago, I don't see how McDaniels' head-coaching career could weather a rebuild. I'm betting the Raiders keep Carr unless they can get Rodgers, Wilson or Watson ... or Tom Brady?!
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Graziano: Under the new collective bargaining agreement, beginning with Mayfield's draft class, the fifth-year options for first-round picks are now fully guaranteed at the time they're picked up. That means when the Browns decided to pick up Mayfield's 2022 option last May, they were committing to paying him a fully guaranteed $18.858 million this season. It's not a ridiculous number for a starting quarterback by any means, so they could carry it and even bring in competition for him if they wanted.
If they wanted to trade him, they might find a wider market than some of these other teams with more costly options. Sam Darnold is sitting there in Carolina at the same fully guaranteed number, and it's not going to stop the Panthers from swinging big in this market. My feeling is the Browns would deal Mayfield if (a) they found another option they clearly like better and (b) someone offered them a price that makes them feel they weren't just giving away a former No. 1 overall pick. But I don't know the likelihood of the latter happening, especially with Mayfield coming off injury.
Jake Trotter, Browns reporter: I think you're right, Dan. Yes, the Browns have publicly declared that they are moving forward with Mayfield as their starter in 2022. But that doesn't mean they won't also be exploring potential upgrades. The question the Browns have to resolve is how significantly the shoulder injury negatively impacted Mayfield's play. He finished 27th in the league in QBR and especially struggled in the fourth quarter. But only a year ago, he quarterbacked the Browns to their first playoff victory in 26 years.
While Cleveland boasts a roster ready to make a Super Bowl run now, pulling off a Matthew Stafford-like trade could prove difficult. That's why the most likely scenario at this point seems to be Cleveland running it back with Mayfield one more season and hoping that with a healthy shoulder he can return to being the quarterback he was in 2020.
Fowler: Yeah, the Browns' brain trust of GM Andrew Berry and coach Kevin Stefanski is measured and patient. It can evaluate the quarterback landscape without overreacting, knowing there's no pressure to extend Mayfield. The only decision is whether he gets one more year. If the Browns do grant Mayfield that year, he's a free agent in 2023 and both sides can move on if it doesn't work out. And if Mayfield rekindles that 2018 and 2020 form -- the Browns know he can get it done because they've seen it twice now -- then you can revisit contract talks.
Meanwhile, the Browns can quietly survey the QB market for alternatives, but there isn't much buzz on some of the top passers available targeting Cleveland as their desired destination via trade. The Cousins-Garoppolo class of quarterbacks might make more sense, but Cleveland would need a partner eager to absorb Mayfield and his option year. In that case, Mayfield must go to a team that believes in him, which is why it's worth noting Seattle and Detroit both have executives from the Cleveland front office that took Mayfield No. 1 overall in 2018. Not that that's enough to spark a trade, but I'm at least keeping that note in my back pocket.