The NFL's MVP award is quite often the most valuable quarterback award. As maybe it should be, given that is the most important position. But the game is played by 21 non-quarterbacks on a given scrimmage play, and some of those players were awfully valuable themselves -- even if they aren't true candidates for the actual MVP award. Aaron Donald, T.J. Watt and Jonathan Taylor had incredible seasons, but likely won't ever get that national recognition.
They deserve their own award -- the non-QB MVP.
So I'm casting my 10-player ballot for this hypothetical award. As always, my selections lean heavily on metrics -- like our Expected Points Added (EPA) numbers and NFL Next Gen Stats player tracking metrics -- to make these votes. No matter how you go about this, it's a tricky exercise. Because when we expand to any non-quarterback position, there are a ton of great players to consider -- including many who did not make this list. But top 10 means top 10, so that is all that is making the cut today.
Let's break down the ballot.
1. Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
A season ago, Aaron Donald took the top spot on my ballot for dominating the rest of his position group in production. This season, his teammate earns the honor -- at the position that research suggests is the second-most valuable in the sport. The Rams generated 115 expected points added on Kupp targets this season (interception plays removed), which was way more than the rest of the receiving field. Only Ja'Marr Chase cracked 80 EPA for his team on targets, and he was just at 85.
There's an argument for looking at completions only when evaluating wide receivers, but Kupp dominates that way too with 143 EPA to Justin Jefferson's 116, the next highest. Kupp ranked second -- only behind Chase -- in receiving yards over expectation based on air yards, expected completion probability and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats. But Kupp's 32% target per route rate was also much higher than Chase's, making his expected receiving yards alone more than Chase's total season yardage.
2. Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams
How, exactly, did Donald beat out T.J. Watt when the Steelers pass-rusher tied the single-season sack record? I'll admit, I was conflicted here. But the regularity of Donald's incredible performances should not diminish the absurdity of them. I present below the following chart of the top 50 players in pass rush win rate (y) and how often they were double-teamed (x).
Double team rate (x) by pass rush win rate (y), regardless of where players line up.
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) January 31, 2022
2021 regular season. Top 50 PRWR players shown.
(ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats) pic.twitter.com/7OsnokOa8R
I mean, that's ridiculous. There's an argument for Watt -- in what we call plus-EPA -- but I'm just not sure we can get past the play-to-play relentlessness of Donald even when he doesn't appear in the traditional box score. There's a volume case for Donald, too. He recorded 94 pass rush wins to Watt's 53 (partially because Watt only played 15 games). And crucially, as the above chart implies, there are other elite edge rushers in the realm of Watt, even if they don't get quite as many sacks. But there are no other elite 3-techniques in Donald's orbit.
3. T.J. Watt, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Now that I've explained why Donald is ranked above Watt, let's focus on Watt's season. And it all starts with the 22.5 sacks that tied Michael Strahan's single-season record. We often talk about how pressures and pass rush wins give us an every-play view of the impact of a pass-rusher, but sacks still matter, too. Sacks are a guaranteed negative play for the offense. And actually converting a pressure or pass rush win into a sack is a skill in and of itself -- and one that Watt possesses. The result is that Watt led all pass-rushers in plus-EPA -- which is the team EPA generated on positive plays for the defense where a player is mentioned in the play-by-play description.
Watt forced five fumbles and recovered three others, which are crucial to plus-EPA. Watt also recorded seven passes defensed -- another effective tool -- just like his brother. And he also ranked seventh in run stop win rate at edge.
4. Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Samuel's receiving numbers alone wouldn't get him quite this high on this list. But his receiving and rushing numbers combined? Now we're talking. Samuel generated plus-65 EPA on his targets and more YAC over expectation (plus-403 yards) than any other player in the league. But he also generated plus-20 EPA as a rusher -- more than every running back other than the Colts' Jonathan Taylor.
Samuel ranked second in rush yards per carry over expectation (plus-1.98) and seventh among all running backs or wide receivers in total rush yards over expectation (plus-113), despite having just 59 carries. In other words, Samuel was a productive receiver and an incredibly efficient runner at the same time. The 49ers ranked seventh in offensive efficiency, and Samuel is a big reason.
5. Micah Parsons, LB, Dallas Cowboys
While not at the top of my list, there's a legitimate case for Parsons as Defensive Player of the Year as a mere rookie. Parsons ranked first in pass rush win rate among all qualifiers this season (29%). That rate alone would not be enough to make his case because his versatility as an effective edge rusher and an off-ball linebacker means he rushed the passer less frequently than the other sack artists. In other words: he does all the other stuff well, too.
He ranked 22 out of 76 qualifiers in run stop win rate when lined up as an off-ball linebacker. And his 0.6 yards per coverage snap allowed as a nearest defender was fourth-best among linebackers with at least 200 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. As a rookie, he made his place among top linebackers.
6. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
For the second time in his two-season career, Jefferson is making this top-10 list, firmly establishing himself as one of the league's top-five wide receivers (at least). He ranked second among all players in receiving yards, second in EPA on completions and fifth in EPA on targets (interceptions excluded). He was a force on third down, leading the EPA numbers and ranking second in receptions over expectation (plus-6). And he did all that with a non-elite quarterback in Kirk Cousins getting him the ball.
7. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
Adams' value is apparent due to how reliant Green Bay's offense was on him. He was targeted on 32% of his routes run, the highest rate among wide receivers in the league on the most efficient passing offense in the league. He ranked fourth among all players in receptions over expectation (plus-10.5) and total EPA generated on targets (interceptions excluded). Adams' production numbers were strikingly similar to Jefferson's, but Adams had the better quarterback throwing to him. Thus, the nod for Jefferson being slightly ahead.
8. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Originally, I thought Chase would miss the cut here due to a lower target rate (23%, a full nine percentage points below Adams). But what's incredible about Chase is how much value he created even on that lower target volume. His EPA generated on non-interception targets ranked second only to Kupp (and fourth on completions). The Bengals should have been throwing to him much more (and handing off to Joe Mixon less).
Chase also led the league in receiving yards over expectation with plus-578. Think about how wild that number is. Based on the targets he received, an average receiver should have had in the ballpark of 900 receiving yards. He managed over 1,400 -- fueled by both a positive catch rate over expectation and the second-highest YAC over expectation total in the league.
9. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
It's true that rushing is (usually) far less efficient than passing and that a successful ground game is often a product of more than just a running back. But an excellent running back can still bring significant value to their team, and that's exactly what Taylor did with the Colts.
Taylor blows away other backs in multiple metrics. Taylor recorded 481 rush yards over expectation based on information at the time of handoff, per NFL Next Gen Stats. The next-highest running back was Nick Chubb at just 269. On a per-carry basis among backs with at least 50 carries, Taylor ranked third on rush yards over expectation per carry behind Rashaad Penny and D'Ernest Johnson, but had far more carries than either.
EPA-wise, he destroyed his peers. The Colts generated 36.5 expected points added on Taylor carries... with Penny the next-highest among running backs at just 13.7 (Samuel was at 20.1). And remember when I said passing is more efficient than rushing? That's usually the case, but not for the 2021 Colts, who were best off when handing the ball to Taylor. The Colts' EPA per Taylor handoff was the equivalent of the EPA/P of the Cowboys' and Chargers' overall offenses.
10. Jordan Poyer, S, Buffalo Bills
Let's start with Buffalo's defense as a whole: It was the best in the league. No. 1 in EPA per play and No. 1 -- easily -- in EPA per dropback. They allowed just 12 passing touchdowns all year, less than half the number the average team allowed. And the Bills did it without a ton of superstars, plus Tre'Davious White was out for the last third of the season. How?
One part of the equation was excellent safety play. While nearest defender information isn't perfect because it doesn't necessarily capture a defensive back's responsibility on a play, it's hard not to notice Poyer as an outlier.
Opponents lost 30 total EPA (including five interceptions) when Poyer was the nearest defender to the target at the time of ball arrival, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That is the best of all players who played deep safety at least 60% of the time. His yards per coverage snap allowed was just 0.3, second-best in the same group and fueled by a minus-17% completion rate over expectation (negative is better), also second-best.
It is a little bit of a leap of faith to have Poyer here instead of bigger names like Myles Garrett or Nick Bosa, particularly given we don't have as advanced safety metrics as we do for pass-rushers. But in what metrics we do have for safeties, Poyer was elite. In order for the Buffalo defense to produce like it did, it needed exceptional play from some of its players.