The NFL promises change. Impatient owners and general managers fire coaches after one or two years. Quarterbacks like the sound of new homes. Franchises embrace rebuilds with more frequency, and draft picks are traded like baseball cards on a school bus. And if Tom Brady can sign with Tampa Bay in 2020, then nothing appears off the table in 2022.
At the end of last season, we asked league executives and coaches to make predictions about what was next for the NFL in the coming year. That list included a surprising number of hits: Carson Wentz to Indianapolis, Alex Smith retiring, a potential Julio Jones deal, the 49ers keeping Jimmy Garoppolo but getting QB help and the Patriots drafting a quarterback high. Sure, the misses -- Mitchell Trubisky re-signing with Chicago and Sam Darnold to Pittsburgh -- were glaring. But this is less about the batting average and more about the canvas of topics people around the league discuss.
This year's edition -- predictions for 2022, from offseason movement to what happens on the field next fall -- will bring more of the same, with execs and insiders offering insights into league thinking as free agency and the draft approach. What's next for the NFL this year?
Here are 10 big things that people around the league think could happen in the next 12 months, starting with a big quarterback decision for an AFC team.
Jump to 2022 predictions for:
C. Wentz | J. Hurts | J. Garoppolo
C. Ridley | R. Wilson
A. Rodgers | B. Mayfield
Colts will think long and hard about replacing QB Carson Wentz -- but ultimately decide to keep him
The Colts' noncommittal approach to Wentz in postseason news conferences got the attention of opposing teams. Neither coach Frank Reich nor GM Chris Ballard endorsed Wentz as the unquestioned starter in 2022.
"I won't make a comment on who's going to be here and who's not going to be here," Ballard told reporters last week. "That's not fair."
Fair enough. But when your quarterback is due $22 million next season and was acquired for first- and third-round picks via trade, anything less than a full commitment stands out. Some evaluators are starting to wonder if the Colts are frustrated enough to make another change at quarterback. One NFC scout could see Indy pursuing the Raiders' Derek Carr -- assuming he's available, which is a big assumption after he led Las Vegas to the playoffs.
"[The Colts] should be in the playoffs, that's what I keep going back to," an NFC exec said. "They are on the cusp. At the very least, I bet they look at all of their options and eventually make that move if there's an opening."
Wentz played respectable football, completing 322 of 516 passes (62.4%) for 3,563 yards, 27 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. But he couldn't elevate Indianapolis in big moments, most notably the 11-point clunker in an ugly Week 18 loss to Jacksonville that kept Indy out of the playoffs.
Financially, Indianapolis could trade or cut Wentz with minimal penalty. His contract carries a $28.3 million cap hit in 2022 against $15 million in dead cap, so the Colts could save money by walking away (a post-June 1 trade or release could prorate that dead cap over multiple years). But in that scenario, they'd have to pay the quarterback replacing Wentz, which could offset that cost and then some.
What could stall any move is the scarcity of cost-effective options. A team that values draft picks like air wouldn't want to give up capital for a second consecutive year to secure another team's quarterback. And it's hard to say the free-agent or draft pool offers better quarterback play in the short term.
And so the Colts and Wentz might be stuck with each other. Unless owner Jim Irsay has completely lost patience, which could be the case after he issued a statement and a social media video expressing deep disappointment with the team's performance this season.
"I just think [Ballard] is trying to send the message that everything is about competition after that bad loss, so there's no reason to publicly endorse Wentz now," an AFC exec said. "But I'm guessing they will eventually."
Eagles will shop for a new QB in 2022
Jalen Hurts led the Eagles to the playoffs but struggled at times with accuracy and bailing on the pocket too early. As one NFL personnel evaluator said, "He just doesn't see it fast enough" as far as diagnosing the defense and making the correct read on time.
That's why, behind aggressive GM Howie Roseman, the Eagles should at least scour the quarterback market. Contention might require it.
"When you have three first-round picks and you don't have a top guy at quarterback, you have to exhaust that option," an AFC exec said.
The Eagles were long rumored to be interested in Houston's Deshaun Watson, so they could monitor his market once again and see if Watson would be willing to go there. There hasn't been much momentum around him wanting to do that, though. (Watson has been accused of sexual assault and inappropriate behavior in 22 active lawsuits, and there would obviously need to be clarity on that situation before such a move.) Alternatively, Minnesota's Kirk Cousins is the kind of established passer who might interest Philly, though his $45 million cap hit would be an issue.
Washington will trade for Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo
Though Garoppolo would be a solid option for the 49ers' offense in 2022 -- which would give Trey Lance another year to develop -- most execs agree that starting Lance is probably best because San Francisco can capitalize on the rookie-wage-scale savings while also giving him valuable experience. And so, the 49ers should spend part of the offseason pumping Garoppolo's trade market.
Meanwhile, it's time for Washington to solidify its passing game for the first time in the Ron Rivera era. One NFC scout says Washington's offense can accommodate Garoppolo's skill set.
"I have some concerns about Garoppolo outside of the Kyle Shanahan offense, but Washington has some in-breaking stuff that would be similar," the exec said. "It wouldn't be as much of an issue if you can define throws for him."
I don't get the sense a return for Garoppolo would be that pricey, either. Some teams believe you shouldn't have to give up a first-round pick for him because it's known that San Francisco is probably ready to play Lance, thus hurting its leverage. Plus, his $24 million salary on the last year of his deal must be reworked. But Garoppolo has played well enough to garner at least a strong Day 2 pick.
Falcons will trade WR Calvin Ridley to a contender
Ridley missed 12 games after stepping away from football to work on his mental health. But assuming he's back in an NFL lineup in 2022 and is in a good space, several teams view him as a top-10 receiver. His market would be robust. Ridley is due a fifth-year option of $11.16 million next season.
"Atlanta is cash-strapped and needs pieces along the offensive line, so they could use the draft capital," an NFC scout said.
What could the Falcons get in return? One league exec says a conditional second-round pick -- which could turn into a first-rounder based on playing time -- seems like a sweet spot for Ridley. That would allow the team to cover itself if he can't play a full season. The Patriots, Saints and Dolphins are among receiver-needy teams that could covet a top pass-catcher like Ridley.
Seattle QB Russell Wilson will wear a new jersey in 2022
What's funny is Seattle and Wilson might be in a better place after this 7-10 season than last year's 12-4 campaign. Seahawks coaches and Wilson had positive conversations about the offense throughout the season, and Wilson likes offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Whispers of discord aren't as prevalent right now as they once were.
But it's no secret that Wilson wants to quarterback a team in contention, or at least a team willing to make the necessary moves to get there. And as one team source says, Carroll and Wilson, though friendly, have philosophical differences on how to build a team and attack a defense. Carroll's method is tried and true, focused on a steady running game. Wilson, at least in the past, has wanted to open things up. Something might have to give if Wilson forces the issue this offseason.
"I don't think they are as high on him as they let on," an AFC exec said. "You've got to remember they've looked into trading him multiple times now. You don't do that with a top guy unless you're comfortable with it."
The Saints were on Wilson's original list of preferred destinations should the Seahawks try to trade him -- he has a no-trade clause -- and it would surprise if New Orleans didn't at least discuss the pros and cons of such a move. Jameis Winston, who went 5-2 as a Saints starter, also will be in the mix for them. The other preferred teams (Cowboys, Raiders and Bears) seem set at quarterback, barring a surprise like Seattle taking over Justin Fields' contract from the Bears.
But Wilson can always expand that list, too. The Giants are loaded with two top-10 picks to dangle, for example, and they have the market that might attract Wilson.
Steelers will draft Ben Roethlisberger's eventual QB successor
The prevailing theme league-wide is that the Steelers value draft picks too much to relinquish several first-rounders for the right to pay a big-name quarterback $35-40 million per year.
To be sure, expect Pittsburgh to exhaust all QB options, from veterans to in-house candidates (Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins) to the draft. A free-agent option such as Jameis Winston could also be a cost-effective alternative to the bigger trade targets. And with several evaluators pegging this as the weakest QB draft class since 2013 (the EJ Manuel/Geno Smith/Mike Glennon draft), perhaps a top passer will be available for Pittsburgh at No. 20 overall.
"They've got [Pitt's] Kenny Pickett in their own building," said an AFC exec, referencing the Steelers-Pitt split practice facility. "They have intimate knowledge of him, so if they believe he's got a chance to be great, expect them to look awfully hard there."
A major coaching name -- Pete Carroll, Sean Payton or Sean McVay -- will leave for TV
As I prepared for the coaching carousel this offseason, several well-informed people brought up Payton or Carroll becoming television stars sooner than later. Nothing was founded, but the chatter was prevalent enough to become a prediction in the eyes of some evaluators.
From the traditional networks to new players such as Amazon, the salaries are mushrooming.
"Not sure I see Payton walking away from coaching -- he loves it too much -- but there's definitely some buzz there that maybe he's being courted on that side," an NFL coordinator said. "Maybe he goes and does that and returns one day to coach the Cowboys or something."
Carroll's sunny disposition would be perfect for TV, and he turns 71 in September. He doesn't appear ready to give up coaching, but a cushy spot on-air could be waiting for him.
McVay is half Carroll's age (35), but several execs have made the Jon Gruden comparison with his career path (minus the email scandal, obviously).
"I think he's trying to get that Super Bowl ring quickly so then he can have options. ... If he wants to do TV for a while, he'd be great at it and can always go back and coach any team he wants after that," an NFC exec said.
Denver will break through with its first playoff berth since 2015, with a star QB to be named later
Projecting the Broncos' quarterback next year is difficult because there's still no hard evidence the Packers will trade Aaron Rodgers, and Deshaun Watson's lawsuits are not resolved. (We discussed Wilson above, but going to the Broncos and making the playoffs is the kind of legacy play for him that we could get behind.)
But here's what to keep in mind with Denver's roster strength: The Broncos had a winning record late in the season with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. No knock on Bridgewater, but he's considered a backend No. 1 at this point. Upgrade the passer, coupled with another strong draft from GM George Paton, and the Broncos are galloping to progress.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will stay in Green Bay
Maybe some execs just can't accept reality and wrap their heads about a nonsensical choice. But the fact is, Rodgers has it really good in Green Bay, where he's cooking up Super Bowl vibes with coach Matt LaFleur. And GM Brian Gutekunst is slowly bridging the relational gap with his QB.
"Why would you leave?" an NFC exec said. "He has everything he needs. He had beef with the front office, but the front office got him a great roster. I still don't understand it."
Money talks, and Rodgers' $46 million cap hit in 2022 suggests the team is ready to move on. But a lot can happen from now until March.
Browns will look to trade QB Baker Mayfield
The Mayfield-Kevin Stefanski relationship seems salvageable, and the franchise shouldn't be eager to dump a quarterback with winning experience after two decades of futility in that spot.
"But at the end of the day, it's not a great fit. He'd be best in a shotgun, up-tempo offense like they have in Arizona," an NFC exec said. "The Browns will get rid of the only good quarterback they've had in years and fall into the same traps of the past."
In this scenario, Mayfield would be looking for support. If the Seahawks did move on from Wilson, I wonder if the Browns would get involved. Seattle exec Alonzo Highsmith was on the Browns' staff that drafted Mayfield, and that offense -- though not like Arizona's unit -- could at least support him with a good running game while unlocking some of the up-tempo/shotgun stuff he might like.