You think you know some stuff about the NFL, and then they play the games and you find out you were wrong about a ton of it.
Just look at Sunday, the final regular-season day of the 2021 season. The Colts looked like a shoo-in for the playoffs. All they had to do was win at lowly Jacksonville. The Jaguars had nothing to play for and had looked lifeless for months. The Jaguars beat the Colts 26-11.
The Steelers had some of the worst-looking losses in the league in November and December, and Ben Roethlisberger's retirement tour had already begun. Surprise! They made the playoffs! Yes, really!
The Rams were 45-0 with Sean McVay as their coach when leading at halftime. They blew a 17-3 halftime lead to the 49ers and needed Arizona to lose to Seattle in order to clinch the NFC West.
Now, some of the stuff in that last paragraph does fit some old narratives. Matthew Stafford's late interception feeds into the idea that he can't get it done in the clutch. Arizona's late-season fade feeds into the idea that Arizona can't finish. The Patriots always seem to lose in Miami late in the season, and they did just that.
But honestly, as much happens every week in this league that you can't predict as you can. You think you know a lot about the NFL's 14 playoff teams, I bet. But a lot of what you know about them is actually wrong.
For the final week of the season, we are ditching overreactions and going instead with myth-busters. Here's what you think you know about the playoff field, and why you might not want to be so sure.
AFC:
1. Titans
2. Chiefs vs. 7. Steelers
3. Bills vs. 6. Patriots
4. Bengals vs. 5. Raiders
NFC:
1. Packers
2. Buccaneers vs. 7. Eagles
3. Cowboys vs. 6. 49ers
4. Rams vs. 5. Cardinals
NFC
1. Green Bay Packers (bye)
The myth: Aaron Rodgers can't win the NFC Championship Game.
The Packers have lost in the conference title game each of the past two seasons, including last year, when they went into the playoffs as the No. 1 seed and earned the only bye in the conference. Tom Brady's Buccaneers went into Lambeau Field in late January and ended Rodgers' dreams of a second Super Bowl title. The year before, the Packers got crushed by the 49ers in San Francisco. Rodgers has played in five NFC Championship Games and has won only one of them -- his very first, 11 years ago en route to his only Super Bowl title.
The Packers enter the playoffs as the NFC's top seed again this season, with Rodgers potentially in his final season in Green Bay and focused on beating the hex.
Why it's wrong: Rodgers isn't entirely blameless. He has thrown six interceptions during his four-game conference title game losing streak, as opposed to seven in his other 17 career postseason games. But the defense is the main reason the Packers have lost these games. They have allowed 140 points in the four NFC Championship Games they've lost with Rodgers as their starter -- an average of 35 per game. (They allowed only 14 to the Bears in the conference title game he won.)
Overall, the Packers have allowed 26.6 points per game in Rodgers' playoff starts, the highest figure among all of the 34 quarterbacks who've started at least 10 postseason games. The 2021 Packers are allowing 20.9 points per game (before Week 18), the eighth-lowest figure in the NFL in 2021.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. PHI)
The myth: Tom Brady doesn't have enough playmakers around him.
Chris Godwin leads the Buccaneers in catches (98), targets (127) and receiving yards (1,103), and he hasn't played since suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 15. Running back Leonard Fournette was second on the team in catches (69, one ahead of Mike Evans) through 17 weeks, and he injured his hamstring in Week 15. Fournette could be back next weekend. Antonio Brown had 42 catches in seven games and was believed to be in line to soak up some of Godwin's targets before he walked off the field midway through Tampa Bay's Week 17 game against the Jets.
At this point, Brady will likely open the playoffs leaning on Evans, tight end Rob Gronkowski and a group of relatively inexperienced wideouts that includes Breshad Perriman, Cyril Grayson (who injured his hamstring Sunday), Tyler Johnson and Scotty Miller.
Why it's wrong: Because he's Tom Brady, and you never count out Tom Brady. This is the guy who threw for a Super Bowl-record 505 yards in Super Bowl LII even though top receiver Brandin Cooks suffered a concussion early in the game and did not return. The Patriots' leading receivers in his first three Super Bowl championship seasons were Troy Brown, Deion Branch and David Givens.
The Tampa Bay offensive line is still healthy, the defense was the real key to last year's title run, and as for targets, Brady is spending practice time now trying to develop as much trust as he can with the less experienced pass-catchers on the roster. You betting against his ability to figure it out?
3. Dallas Cowboys (vs. SF)
The myth: The Cowboys need their high-powered offense to win games.
"What's wrong with the Cowboys' offense?" has been a hot talk-show topic for several weeks now, and there has developed some feeling that Dallas' improved defense is the main reason for its success this season. Rookie Micah Parsons has been a revelation. Trevon Diggs leads the NFL with 11 interceptions. The defense has shown the ability to make big play after big play all year, and if you like the Cowboys' chances in the playoffs, it's likely because of your faith in Dan Quinn's group to deliver in the big moments.
But you're also probably hoping the offense can be more consistent -- Saturday's 51-point outburst was a start -- and catch back up with the defense in time to make a real Super Bowl run.
Why it's wrong: Dallas ranks second in the NFL in total offense and 19th in defense. The defensive improvement is one of the stories of the Cowboys' season, and ranking second in offense surely doesn't indicate that much is wrong.
But look deeper, particularly at the stats that are determined on a play-by-play basis. Through 17 weeks, the Cowboys ranked ninth in offensive efficiency (11th since Week 9) and second in defensive efficiency. Dallas' 12-5 record and NFC-best plus-172 point differential have as much to do with how it has been able to limit opponents as they do with the Cowboys' ability to score.
4. Los Angeles Rams (vs. ARI)
The myth: Matthew Stafford can't win the big game.
This is a little bit skewed, of course, because how many "big games" did Stafford even play in during his 12 years with the Lions? The Rams' first playoff game this season will be just the fourth of Stafford's career, and he and the Lions went 0-3 in the first three.
This postseason is a significant test for Stafford, whose backers want to believe the lowly Lions were the thing that was dragging down his otherwise promising career. If he goes one-and-out with the Rams, the idea that he's not a clutch quarterback will only gain steam.
Why it's wrong: Well, we really don't know that it is. But why it might be wrong? The Lions were underdogs in all three of those playoff games -- in New Orleans against Drew Brees (2011), in Dallas against the Tony Romo/DeMarco Murray Cowboys (2014) and in Seattle against Russell Wilson and a still-formidable Seahawks defense (2016). Stafford is 3-5 this season and 11-70 in his career against teams with winning records, but his teams have been underdogs in 59 of those 81 games.
A point in Stafford's favor is that through 17 weeks he was the NFL's leader in fourth-quarter QBR in one-score games -- an indication that he can come through when it matters. But we're all about to find out together whether that translates into the postseason.
5. Arizona Cardinals (at LAR)
The myth: The Cardinals have enough wide receiver depth to overcome DeAndre Hopkins' injury.
Hopkins had a healthy start to the season, but he injured his hamstring in a Week 7 game against Houston. He tried to gut it out in Week 8, in a Thursday night game against the Packers, but he played only 15 plays in that game and didn't play again until Week 12. Then in Week 14, he injured his knee and has not played since.
The Cardinals still have A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore and Antoine Wesley, who has performed well in Hopkins' absence. Plus, they have Zach Ertz at tight end and Chase Edmonds as a good pass-catching running back. Kyler Murray ostensibly has plenty of options at his disposal even without Hopkins.
Why it's wrong: Whether it's a direct result of Hopkins' injury or a coincidence, Arizona's offense hasn't been the same since Week 7 over the second half of the season. The Cardinals ranked fourth in the league in offensive efficiency through Week 8 and 14th from Weeks 9 through 17. They averaged 29.9 offensive points per game in the first eight weeks of the season (fourth best) and then 21.6 (15th) over the next nine.
It's unclear whether Hopkins will return for any or all of Arizona's playoff games, but it's almost certain that the team would function better -- or at least force defenses to play it differently -- if it could get him back in the passing game.
6. San Francisco 49ers (at DAL)
The myth: This is the same team that made a Super Bowl run in 2019.
Yes, the 49ers were in the Super Bowl just two seasons ago, behind a dominant defense and a sharp, run-centric Kyle Shanahan offense with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. The defense might not be dominant, but those last couple of things are still the case, and the personnel on both sides of the ball is largely the same -- at least relative to the level of turnover we see around the rest of the league. The Niners were one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the league last season, and many expected them to bounce back to Super Bowl form with better injury luck.
Why it's wrong: The 2019 49ers had a better supporting cast around Garoppolo. They ranked second in rush yards per game that season, and they were seventh this season. They ranked third in defensive efficiency that season, and they were 11th through 17 weeks this season. Nothing wrong with those numbers, but again, the 2019 team leaned on a monster run game and a monster defense (which is why the Niners were the 2-seed in 2019 and are a wild-card team this season).
If the 49ers are just a little bit off from that season, they're going to need to ask more of Garoppolo, who has performed well over the second half of the season but still isn't the most trustworthy quarterback in the NFC field.
7. Philadelphia Eagles (at TB)
The myth: Jalen Hurts won't be able to win a playoff game with his arm.
The Eagles' first-year starting quarterback has shown great improvement since the start of the season, but their success really began once they started leaning on the running game. Through 17 weeks, Hurts ranked 20th in the league in passing yards, 19th in Total QBR, 23rd in touchdown passes and 24th in completion percentage (61.3%). He has been a big part of the aforementioned run game, with 784 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns, but he hasn't been a topflight passer yet.
Why it's wrong: From Weeks 8 through 17 -- he rested in Philly's Week 18 loss to Dallas -- Hurts ranked ninth in the league in completion percentage above expectation (CPOE), which indicates he has an ability to make tough throws. And over the season's first 17 weeks, he had the 10th-lowest off-target rate among passers in spite of posting the fourth-longest average pass distance.
Hurts feels like a guy it's not wise to underestimate, and while the Eagles' DNA on offense is the run game and he's a huge part of that, there's at least some evidence to indicate he can make throws when he has to.
AFC
1. Tennessee Titans (bye)
The myth: This is the same Titans team that lost in the first round last season.
This is Tennessee's sixth consecutive winning season (fourth under coach Mike Vrabel) and second season in a row with at least 11 wins. The Titans reached the AFC Championship Game two years ago but otherwise have not translated their regular-season success into postseason success. Last season, they took a 10-0 first-quarter lead on the Ravens at home in their first playoff game only to lose it 20-13. It is surely fair to wonder why this season would be any different.
Why it's wrong: You mean other than the fact that the Titans have a first-round bye and are already past the round where they lost? The main reason the Titans are different is the defense. Last season, they ranked 25th in defensive efficiency, 32nd in third-down conversion percentage allowed and 30th in sacks. Heading into their season finale this season, they ranked eighth in defensive efficiency, sixth in third-down conversion percentage allowed and ninth in sacks.
That is significant across-the-board improvement under coordinator Shane Bowen, and the ability to get the defense off the field and get the ball back in Ryan Tannehill's hands (and maybe Derrick Henry's!) makes this Tennessee team a more formidable foe. Plus, it is the only team that beat both the Chiefs and Bills this season.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. PIT)
The myth: The Chiefs had a down year on offense.
We are so used to seeing Patrick Mahomes & Co. dominate with breathtaking plays that this season has felt odd. Things didn't seem to come as easily for them, and the discussion around the Chiefs for much of the regular season centered on what was wrong with Mahomes.
Why it's wrong: They ranked second in the league in offensive efficiency this season, which is exactly where they ranked in that category in 2020. They averaged 28.2 points per game, which is down from last year's 29.6 but still a top-five figure in the league.
Much of the criticism of Kansas City's offense felt like a result of the league-leading 17 turnovers the Chiefs committed in their first seven games. But Mahomes and the Chiefs got the turnover issues cleared up over the second half of the season, and but for a furious Week 17 comeback by Joe Burrow and the Bengals they'd be on a 10-game winning streak right now.
3. Buffalo Bills (vs. NE)
The myth: The Bills are too one-dimensional on offense.
This time last year, the Bills' passing game was operating at such a high level, no one cared that they weren't running the ball at all. They finished 20th in the league in rushing yards and 17th in rushing attempts in 2020, but they were second in the league in total yards and points scored, so it didn't really matter.
During their midseason slump this season, however, the Bills were roundly criticized for offensive coordinator Brian Daboll's refusal to balance the offense and run the ball more.
Why it's wrong: From Weeks 10 through 17 this season, only the Eagles, Colts, 49ers, Patriots and Titans averaged more yards per game than did the Bills, and only the Seahawks and Jets averaged more yards per carry. They have, in fact, found a run game.
Now, they're still a pass-first offense, don't misunderstand, but not as much as some other teams are. They call a designed pass play on 65.1% of their offensive snaps, which is a lot, but it's just the sixth-highest such percentage in the league. The Chiefs and Buccaneers, of whom you don't hear the same types of criticism, rank first and second in the league in that category, at 68.7% and 68.2%, respectively.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. LV)
The myth: The Bengals have one of the league's best offenses.
It can be captivating to watch the Bengals play offense. Quarterback Joe Burrow ranked fifth in the league in passing yards through Week 17 (he didn't play in Week 18), and the talent he has around him at the skill positions is among the best in the league. Joe Mixon is a top-level running back. Ja'Marr Chase, Burrow's college teammate, is one of the most productive rookie receivers of all time. Wideouts Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd would start for many, many teams in the league. Cincinnati ranked fifth in the league in points scored per game (27.8) through Week 17, and what better measure is there of an offense than how many points it scores?
Why it's wrong: This is the playoffs, and the competition stiffens up here, so we like to dig a little deeper than points per game to try to figure out if things are sustainable. Cincinnati ranked a solid-but-not-elite 11th in offensive efficiency. Among playoff teams, the Bengals ranked better than only the Eagles, Patriots, Titans, Raiders and Steelers.
What's more, Burrow was sacked 51 times this season, which is, historically, way too much for a Super Bowl team. Prior to 2021, there were 54 quarterbacks who'd been sacked 50 or more times in a season, and not a single one of them made it to the Super Bowl. The Bengals were 31st in the league in pass-block win percentage. Burrow has overcome a lot to post those big numbers.
5. Las Vegas Raiders (at CIN)
The myth: The Raiders can't rush the passer.
This is the major issue that seemed to define the ill-fated second Jon Gruden Raiders era, after he traded Khalil Mack upon arrival. They had a league-low 13 sacks in 2018, finished tied for 24th in 2019 with 32 sacks and 29th in 2020 with just 21 sacks. Entering Sunday night's game, they had just 32 this season, which ranked 24th in the league.
Why it's wrong: Entering Sunday, the Raiders actually had the eighth-highest pressure rate in the league and the seventh-best pass-rush win rate. And they do this in spite of the fact that they blitz at the lowest rate of any team in the NFL. Not only do this year's Raiders have a pass rush, they have a pass rush that works even without sending extra guys. Which is huge.
6. New England Patriots (at BUF)
The myth: You can't get to the Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback.
This one's easy to figure out. No rookie quarterback has started the Super Bowl. The Patriots are trying to buck history behind Mac Jones. He has done basically everything they've asked him to do, but when they have had success this season it has been because they were running the ball and their defense was forcing turnovers.
The Patriots entered the final week of the season ranked 16th in yards and eighth in points per game. Their offense is responsible with the ball and productive when it isn't turning it over, but it is by no means dynamic. If Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels need to ask Jones to lead the team to a comeback win in a road playoff game, there's reason to be skeptical.
Why it's wrong: New England has the No. 1 scoring defense in the league, so it generally doesn't need to score a ton of points to win. And while it's true that no rookie quarterback has ever made it to the Super Bowl, once upon a time Belichick did the next-best thing. The 2001 season was Tom Brady's second in the NFL, but he threw only three passes during his rookie year of 2000 and he'd started just 14 NFL games when the 2001 playoffs began. He and Belichick ended up holding a Lombardi trophy at the end of that season.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (at KC)
The myth: The Steelers have a dominant defense.
This is axiomatic, really, since the 1970s. You think about the Steelers, you think about defense. And they do have some big stars on that side of the ball: T.J Watt just tied the single-season record for sacks. Minkah Fitzpatrick is a big-time playmaker at safety. Cam Heyward, Devin Bush, Joe Haden ... In the twilight of Ben Roethlisberger's career, that's the side of the ball that supposedly carries this team -- a team that I honestly don't think anyone can believe actually made the playoffs.
Why it's wrong: Mainly because they're downright awful against the run. The Steelers allowed a league-worst 146.1 rushing yards per game and a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry in the regular season. It's the first time since 1939, according to Elias Sports Bureau, that they ranked last in those two statistics. Their 215.1 passing yards allowed per game is the 10th-lowest figure in the league, so that's something, but they allow 7.1 yards per pass attempt, which is right in the middle of the pack. Teams like to run the ball against the Steelers, and it shows.
The good news? Their first-round opponent will be the Chiefs, who destroyed them 36-10 in Week 16 but aren't the league's most fearsome running team. The Steelers actually out-rushed the Chiefs 130-127 in that loss.