Predicting NFL Week 12 upsets and fantasy football sleepers, plus buzz and notes around the league

It's Week 12 of the 2021 NFL season, and we asked our insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler for insight on the biggest news and for their picks on games and players to watch this weekend.

After naming their NFC top picks last week, they tackle the favorites in the AFC, choosing their top teams in the conference. Are the current No. 1-seeded Tennessee Titans still the best of the AFC? They also look at players who could break out as the calendar churns toward December. Who are the names to watch for huge stretch runs?

But first, they give their thoughts on possible upsets this week. Will the Indianapolis Colts keep it rolling against the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers? And for fantasy managers looking to make all the right moves, our insiders name must-start sleepers. They get into all of it, emptying their notebooks with everything they've heard this week, including the health of the Green Bay Packers' defense and the Titans' wide receivers.

Let's get started with the upset picks of the week, but you can also jump to other big questions for Week 12.

Jump to:
Stretch-run breakout stars
AFC No. 1 seed | Underrated gems
Notebook: Everything we're hearing

What's your top upset pick for Week 12?

Fowler: Colts (+2.5) over the Buccaneers. I rode with the Colts all year but failed to pick them over Buffalo. I'm back on the Jonathan Taylor train. Bucs run-stopper Vita Vea is not a slam dunk to play, but if he is back, Indy's running game is still good enough to control the pace. And it's not like Indy can't pivot to a pass-heavy attack under Carson Wentz, who has a 56.1 QBR thanks to 18 touchdowns and three interceptions.

Graziano: Yeah, I was thinking Colts too until I watched the Bucs on Monday night and now I don't feel as good about it. Love what the Colts are doing, but if -- IF! -- there's a defense out there that can slow down Taylor right now, it's Tampa Bay's.

My problem is, I don't really see another upset I feel great about. I could see the Giants upsetting the Eagles in a division-rivalry game, but I can't pick them after Monday night. I could see the Steelers beating the Bengals because of all the history they have of doing just that, but Cincy's the better team right now.

So let me take the Browns (+3.5) over the Ravens just because Baker Mayfield is all fired up and the Ravens seem to be living on the edge. I don't feel great about it.

Fowler: And the Browns could be getting running back Kareem Hunt back this week. That offense was really good when Nick Chubb and Hunt were in the same backfield for those first five weeks. And that offense needs ... something.

Who is an under-the-radar player you think could break out down the stretch of the season?

Graziano: Broncos running back Javonte Williams. He's still splitting time with veteran Melvin Gordon, but the second-round rookie looks like the better and more explosive player. Plus, the Broncos' schedule down the stretch sets up brilliantly for them to just run the ball down teams' throats constantly. So there should be enough to go around even if they don't move off of the timeshare.

Fowler: Give me Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson. He's quietly putting together a banner season, leading the Steelers in receptions (59) and yards (714). He struggled mightily with drops last year but has largely curbed that issue. He has at least 80 yards in three of his past four games, and Ben Roethlisberger looks more comfortable passing after a sluggish start to the year behind an inexperienced offensive line. Chase Claypool is the vertical threat, but Johnson is the volume receiver.

Graziano: Good call there on a team you know well, and I think the Steelers' remaining schedule sets up well for their pass game. Johnson does seem to be the guy Ben trusts the most when he has to have a play.

Fowler: San Francisco wideout Brandon Aiyuk is another good one. He has recorded at least 80 yards and a touchdown in two of his past three games.

Last week you both predicted the NFC 1-seed, so let's go to the other side: Which team will end up as the 1-seed in the AFC?

Fowler: Tennessee Titans. They have a penchant for curious losses, which is why I'm not sure if their 31st-ranked remaining strength of schedule is a good or bad thing. But let's assume it's a good thing, because a) the Titans already played the red-hot Colts twice (both wins), b) they are among the league's most physical teams, which matters late in the year, and c) they should, in theory, learn how to slam the door on weaker opponents after dropping games to the Jets and Texans. I'll assume Ryan Tannehill's four-interception performance serves as an aberration and Tennessee regains its footing in the running game.

Graziano: Tennessee is a strong call. I hesitate with the Titans because they're so banged up right now, but yeah, after this week's game in Foxborough, the only game they have left against a team with a winning record is against 5-4-1 Pittsburgh, which couldn't even beat the Lions.

But my pick is the Kansas City Chiefs. Three or four weeks ago, we were talking about how they had the toughest remaining schedule, but a lot of that was based on the records of the Packers and Cowboys, whom they've played now and beaten. The defense is playing great, and the offense obviously has greatness inside of it waiting to come out. I think Kansas City comes out of this week's bye hot and piles up a bunch of division wins en route to that first-round bye.

Fowler: Yeah, even when panic presided over Kansas City's struggles, the Chiefs still had too much talent and history to fall apart. And how often did the Raiders or Chargers or Broncos hold on to the AFC West crown in recent years? At the very least, Kansas City had an inside track at the divisional crown. And the defense looks different now that Chris Jones is back inside wrecking shop. It also has an emerging star in L'Jarius Sneed.

Who's a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 12?

Graziano: Texans RB Rex Burkhead. You're looking at the 40 yards on 18 carries last week against Tennessee. I'm only looking at the 18 carries. The Texans play the Jets this week. The Jets are allowing the most points per game to fantasy running backs this year and it's not even close. Maybe you like David Johnson better than Burkhead, I don't know. But if you're desperate at running back this week, Houston is the place to turn your attention.

Fowler: Packers WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling. MVS took advantage of Allen Lazard's absence in Week 11 with four receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown on a team-high 10 targets. Expecting such output each week is not reasonable. But Valdes-Scantling is always a deep threat, and if defenses continue to double Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers won't have a problem looking his way.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Fowler

• With the smoke surrounding Matt Nagy's job status in Chicago building, Thursday's game against the Lions has an interesting subplot. But Chicago isn't known for acting hastily with coaches, which is why some people around the league wouldn't be surprised if Nagy gets more time to play this out. Bears management never has fired a coach midseason in its 101-year history. As one league source said, "I just don't think they will be reckless with it." At 3-7, Nagy's tenure is tenuous at best. But if the Bears beat Detroit, which is largely expected, it would be odd for ownership to fire a coach after a win.

• The Packers are among the league's most beat-up teams; they're without five Pro-Bowl-caliber players on offense or defense after Week 11. But I'm hearing defensive reinforcements should be on the way. There's a good chance pass-rusher Za'Darius Smith returns sometime in the final six weeks of the season. He's aiming for that window coming off early-season back surgery. Smith has an easy out in his contract, with the last year of his deal carrying a $28.1 million cap hit vs. $12.4 million in dead money. There's incentive for Smith to play and play well before March, reminding people what he can do -- unless the Packers keep him out, which is possible since they are typically conservative with player health. As for corner Jaire Alexander (shoulder), he continues to rehab and should know his outlook "soon" for the rest of the year, a source said.

• This has been a painful year for tight end Rob Gronkowski, who played 46 snaps Monday night against the New York Giants after missing most of the past two months with a rib issue. At one point, Gronkowski was in such discomfort that, at times, he slept in a recliner instead of a bed. Now healed up, Gronkowski caught six passes for 71 yards against New York.

• QB Jared Goff is pushing to play Thanksgiving against the Bears. Coming off Lions coach Dan Campbell saying Goff is trending toward playing, Goff's oblique injury improved early this week, with the feeling as of Tuesday morning that he would be good to go. Barring unforeseen change, Goff is getting the start over Tim Boyle.

• A couple of roster-related notes: RB Phillip Lindsay, released by the Texans on Tuesday, could have several teams placing a waiver claim on him Wednesday. The Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens are among teams intrigued by versatile tailback help ... Steelers tight end Eric Ebron will miss extended time because of likely knee surgery, per source. He's getting a second opinion but it doesn't sound good. It's the Pat Freiermuth show at tight end for Pittsburgh.

Graziano

• The Tennessee Titans head into this week's very important game against the Patriots with significant injury concerns at the wide receiver position. Julio Jones is on IR and has to miss at least one more game. A.J. Brown injured a hand and his chest in Sunday's loss to Houston, and as of this writing the team was waiting for more test results before determining whether Brown would be able to practice or play this week. Marcus Johnson injured a hamstring in Sunday's game. Josh Reynolds, who was signed in the offseason as a free agent, was waived a couple of weeks ago and now plays for the Lions. It's possible that Ryan Tannehill's top wide receivers for this game will be Chester Rogers, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and rookie Dez Fitzpatrick. Oh, and it will be against a team that will have had 10 days' rest and hasn't allowed a single point in its past seven quarters.

• What the Saints have done with Taysom Hill's contract over the past couple of years offers a blueprint for teams that might have to get creative with big quarterback salaries in the coming offseason. Example: The Carolina Panthers have Sam Darnold under contract for 2022 at a fully guaranteed $18.858 million. It feels safe to say they would prefer to make other plans at quarterback for next year and beyond. But let's say they acquire Russell Wilson from the Seahawks. Wilson would cost them $24 million, which would jack their total QB spending up to $42.858 million. What they could do in this hypothetical case is convert $17.823 million of Darnold's 2022 salary (all but the $1.035 million minimum salary for his level of service time) into a signing bonus, do a dummy contract like the Saints did with Hill by adding four void years from 2023 to 2026, and spread the cap hit of the bonus out over five years. That would drop Darnold's cap cost in 2022 to about $4.6 million and create a dead-money charge of about $14.26 million for him on their 2023 cap. A lot more manageable.

• The hot topic among agents last week was the issue of Pro Bowl voting. Specifically, some agents are upset about the rule that prevents players who are on injured reserve from appearing on the ballot. Why do they care? Because Pro Bowl selections carry direct financial consequences now for players on rookie contracts. For example, the fifth-year-option salaries for first-round picks, which are determined after the player's third year, are higher for players who have been selected to one Pro Bowl and even higher for players who have been selected to two. If you're being kept off the ballot for a couple of weeks while voting is going on because you're temporarily on IR, that could cost you several million dollars in Year 5 and also set you back in terms of your future earnings, because you start extension talks at a lower salary than you otherwise would.