Predicting NFL Week 11 upset picks, fantasy football sleepers and flops, plus buzz and notes around the league

It's Week 11 of the 2021 NFL season, and we asked our insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler for insight on the biggest news and for their picks on games and players to watch this weekend.

First, though, they give their thoughts on a possible renaissance for Cam Newton back in familiar territory and on potential No. 1 seeds in the loaded NFC.

Graziano and Fowler also share their upset picks for Week 11, including one of those NFC favorites. And for fantasy managers looking to make all the right moves, they name must-start sleepers and point out potential fantasy flops of the week. They get into all of it, emptying their notebooks with everything they've heard this week, including injury news from Pittsburgh and New Orleans. Let's get started with the upset picks of the week, but you can also jump to other big questions for Week 11.

Jump to:
Newton's future | NFC No. 1 seed
Fantasy flops | Underrated gems
Notebook: Everything we're hearing

What's your top upset pick for Week 11?

Graziano: I'm going with Washington (+3.5) over the Panthers. Even with Chase Young going down, I think we saw a Washington defense Sunday that has turned a corner and is ready to look like the dominant unit it was supposed to be. Even with Cam Newton's return firing up the Panthers to an upset of the depleted Cardinals, Carolina still is a little bit short in too many areas to really make noise in the playoff race. Washington might not be able to make the run many predicted it would before the season started, but I don't think it is going to be a fun team to play the rest of the way.

Fowler: All aboard the Taylor Heinicke train. I could see that happening. My pick: Minnesota (+2.5) over Green Bay. Sure, Aaron Rodgers traditionally plays well in Minnesota, with a 7-6 career record there. But the Vikings will play with the urgency of a desperate team. Falling to 4-6 would stifle a playoff run. And that road win over the Chargers last week was impressive. The Vikings are battle tested because pretty much all of their games are close. They win a close one here; I'm thinking within three points.

Graziano: Interesting. I've been kind of liking the Packers and the way their defense has improved lately. And I have to figure Rodgers plays better after a week of practice than he did Sunday coming off two weeks without. Not sure what to make of Minnesota overall, but you're right that they don't really seem to be out of games even when they end up losing them.

Fowler: Love the Packers' D but not sure how long they can keep this pace up. And Minnesota, though erratic, can win games with the run or the pass on any given day. Part of me wants to take the Colts (+7) over the Bills, but I couldn't talk myself into it, though I've been endorsing Indy as a sleeper playoff team.

Does Cam Newton have a realistic shot of being the Panthers' opening-day starter in 2022?

Graziano: I think it's unlikely. Carolina will be big-game hunters on the quarterback market this offseason, as it was last offseason, when it tried to trade for Matthew Stafford and Deshaun Watson only to end up with Sam Darnold. This time, with Watson, Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins and others among the potentially available impact names at the position, I expect the Panthers to aim higher than Newton and be motivated enough to land one of the bigger names.

Fowler: I'm with Dan. This feels like a half-year rental. It's such a great story that I don't want to muddle it with concerns about Newton's long-term viability. Both parties know what this is -- a chance to win, and a chance for closure on a memorable run. We could see an unprecedented run of big-name quarterbacks going elsewhere, depending on how everything shakes out. Expect Carolina to be in the mix there. What's wild is that Carolina has Darnold's $18.858 million fifth-year option on the books for 2022. The organization made a two-year commitment to him. What does it do with that, Dan?

Graziano: Well, the Panthers could pay a chunk of it to make him go away, as they did when they traded Teddy Bridgewater to the Broncos just a few months ago. But (A) I can't conceive of what the market would be for Darnold at any significant price at this point, and (B) eventually they're going to run out of cap space. It's certainly possible that having to pay Darnold could affect their pursuit of a higher-end QB option, but I don't get the sense that they're overly worried about that at this point.

Fowler: Right. And I don't get the sense that team owner David Tepper will let a few million dollars thwart his quest for a long-term signal-caller. The Panthers are about as subtle as Jim Carrey's acting with that pursuit. The cap implications are what they are, but teams can work around it. They will try to get in the mix on the heavy hitters available.

Which team will end up as the 1-seed in the NFC?

Fowler: The Buccaneers. The Washington loss doesn't move me off the belief that Tampa Bay (6-3) is still the best team, with the best roster, in the NFC. It went through a similar midseason funk before figuring things out in the second half in 2020. The Bucs have dealt with significant injuries all season. If the secondary can get healthy and jell by December, I'm expecting them to clean up their play on defense. The Packers will be right there. Arizona has proven it's, at the least, a viable playoff contender. And with Dallas, I still want to see more, but it is trending toward a top-3 seed.

Graziano: I'll take the Packers. While the public behavior of their quarterback makes this a tough pick to feel good about karmically, it just feels like there's something going on here. Aaron Rodgers came back Sunday and didn't look fantastic (he hadn't practiced in two weeks), but they didn't really need him to. The defense shut out the Seahawks, and the depth they have at running back as a result of the AJ Dillon pick everybody ripped at the time came up big when Aaron Jones got hurt. There's little doubt that Rodgers wants to make this a "Last Dance"-style ending for himself in Green Bay, and at just about every turn the Packers have looked more than capable of cashing it in. I picked them to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl before the season started, and I'm sticking with them.

Fowler: What the Green Bay defense is doing under new coordinator Joe Barry has been impressive. No Za'Darius Smith, no Jaire Alexander, no problem. The Packers haven't given up more than 21 points since early October. This side of the ball struggled in the playoffs last year, but maybe the corner has officially turned. What do you make of the Rams' slide, Dan? No team needs a bye week more.

Graziano: The Rams definitely need a reset. I still think they're as talented as anyone in the conference, but a lot has gone on there the past couple of weeks, and it's a lot to digest. The most significant development with them, to me, is the loss of wideout Robert Woods, who does so many different things in their offense that will be hard to replace. Regrouping over the bye week is important if they want to hang with the rest of the top NFC contenders.

Who's a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 11?

Graziano: Raiders running back Kenyan Drake. He had been carving out a decent role in the Raiders' offense prior to Sunday's debacle, and the Bengals have definitely been susceptible to running backs who can catch the ball. Remember Michael Carter's Week 9 breakout? The Raiders need to get back on track this week, and Drake should be a part of that effort even with Josh Jacobs in place as the team's starting running back.

Fowler: Saints wideout Tre'Quan Smith. He finally awoke from his slumber. The Saints had big plans for Smith in the preseason, but he missed the start of the year with a hamstring issue and looked lost against Seattle on Monday Night Football. But he has caught a touchdown in two of his past three games with Trevor Siemian, and four of his seven targets last week against Tennessee came in the red zone. Feels like a safe play that Siemian will keep looking his way.

Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop for Week 11?

Fowler: Eagles running back Miles Sanders. Sanders is eligible to return from short-term injured reserve this week, and as much as I love his game, the Eagles' running game is cooking without him right now. Jordan Howard and Boston Scott each have 180-plus rushing yards and three touchdowns over the past three weeks, two in winning efforts. The Eagles will find ways to get Sanders involved -- he's too talented to keep on the sideline -- but Howard's between-the-tackles style has proven reliable at the goal line, and Scott has earned playing time.

Graziano: Washington running back Antonio Gibson. Carolina's defense just doesn't give up yards on the ground. Gibson looked great Sunday coming off a bye, but he's still playing with a fracture in his shin and won't have had the benefit of two weeks' rest this time around.

Fowler: That shin injury has been an issue all year. He's playing through some pain.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Fowler

• The Steelers are facing serious availability questions entering Week 11, starting with the quarterback. Pittsburgh is bracing for the potential absence of Ben Roethlisberger for another week, partly based on precedent -- vaccinated players who test positive for COVID-19 often miss more than seven days of action. Arizona pass-rusher Chandler Jones and Green Bay receiver Davante Adams each missed around 10 days before activation, for example. It will be eight days between kickoff against the Chargers and Roethlisberger testing positive on Saturday. Tough turnaround. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is now under the COVID-19 protocol. T.J. Watt is day-to-day but beat up with rib and knee issues. Guard Kevin Dotson will miss multiple weeks because of a high right ankle sprain. Chase Claypool, Joe Haden and Trai Turner are injured. Pulling off a win over the Chargers would be a Mike Tomlin special with a group this depleted.

• The Vikings plan to continue playing running back Dalvin Cook, who faces a civil lawsuit claiming he assaulted an ex-girlfriend in 2020. Cook maintains he's being extorted and told the media last week the "truth will come out." Vikings officials have talked with Cook and his attorneys on the matter, and the NFL is monitoring the situation but is unlikely to discipline the player in the short term because of the case's civil standing. Unless something drastic changes, Cook will remain a fixture in the Vikings' lineup.

• Many around the league are closely watching Matthew Stafford's play after a terrible two-game stretch. There's a large faction of scouts and execs who believed his transcendent talent would shine once out of Detroit, and when paired with Sean McVay's savvy game-planning. But there was always uncertainty attached to that. "Some feel he'll let you down at some point," an AFC scout said. "Maybe that's true, maybe not. ... He still has the ability and the smarts and the system to [change that narrative]." Stafford now has the bye week to find a rhythm with Odell Beckham Jr., who played 15 snaps vs. San Francisco. That will increase as Beckham has two weeks to absorb the Rams' three-receiver packages.

• Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa actually had more swelling on his broken middle finger coming out of last week's win over Baltimore than he had going in, when the team didn't want to play him. A primary reason he was active in Week 10 is because the Eagles had claimed Reid Sinnett, a fixture in Miami's system for nearly two years. Miami didn't have a reliable backup, so it opted for an injured Tagovailoa as the No. 2 behind Jacoby Brissett. When Brissett hurt his knee, Tagovailoa entered the game and orchestrated two scoring drives without his fastball due to the finger. A team source called his performance "incredibly gutsy," and it bodes well for him over the final seven games as he auditions for the future.

• A couple of running back injuries to monitor: There's a realistic chance Alvin Kamara needs a second week of rest on that sprained knee. Kamara had knee issues in 2019 and the Saints want to be cautious with their prized tailback. ... Seattle is in a tough spot with Chris Carson (neck), who wants to play but also wants to preserve his long-term playing ability. He has what's being classified as a neck stinger, and scans don't show structural damage, but obviously neck injuries are tricky and can lead to problems for a between-the-tackles runner. I still get the sense he could be shut down or placed back on IR, but perhaps things perk up this week. Seattle could really use the lift Carson provides.

Graziano

• In Foxborough, Massachusetts, on Sunday, Cleveland people I talked to were optimistic that Kareem Hunt could return to action fairly soon. They hadn't even ruled out the possibility he could play this week against Detroit, though it sounded more likely that the Week 12 game in Baltimore could be the spot. (The Browns have a bye in Week 13.) As for Nick Chubb, who missed Sunday's game after testing positive for COVID-19 early in the week, I was told he showed some mild symptoms during the week, but as long as those have cleared up and he tests negative this week, then there's legitimate reason to hope Chubb, a vaccinated player, could return for this week's game against the Lions. The biggest injury question around the Browns might be the health of quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has been playing with a significant left shoulder injury all season and left Sunday's game after injuring his knee. Cleveland has to weigh Mayfield's determination to play through the pain against the possibility that a fully healthy Case Keenum might give them the better chance to win at this point.

• Carolina using Cam Newton when it got close to the goal line in his first game back Sunday wasn't a total surprise. The low-red zone area is where the coaches believe P.J. Walker struggles the most, and Newton obviously can be a difference-maker in that area, turning a weakness into a major strength. Even as Newton transitions into his role as the full-time starter, possibly as early as this week, they'll likely continue to deploy him that way when they get in close.

• The Eagles still project to have three first-round picks in April, assuming Carson Wentz stays healthy and ends up playing 75% of the Colts' offensive snaps, but what if they don't have to use them to get a quarterback? Jalen Hurts has the league's No. 1 QBR over the past five weeks, and the Eagles are pleased with the improvements he has shown with his accuracy as the season has progressed. A renewed commitment to the run game over the last three games has allowed the Eagles to ask a little bit less of Hurts than they were for most of the season, and they feel like that's bringing the best out of him. If they get to the end of the season and think Hurts is their franchise QB of the future, they could kick-start a rebuild around him pretty quickly with those three first-rounders. Also, don't dismiss Philly as a dark horse playoff contender this year. The Eagles' remaining schedule still includes two games each against the Giants and Washington and one against the Jets.