A former NFL MVP getting cut is always major news, but what quarterback Cam Newton's release from the New England Patriots represents is far juicier: Mac Jones is QB1 in New England, becoming the third rookie quarterback of the 2021 class to earn a starting job in the NFL, alongside Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville and Zach Wilson in New York.
By all accounts, Jones took the starting job from Newton because of his accuracy and decision-making in the preseason -- especially with Newton in COVID-19 protocol last week, which caused him to miss five days and opened a door Jones swiftly entered. But Newton was once poised to take ownership of this job, with several sources saying months ago that Pats coach Bill Belichick would roll with Newton until something happened, or someone changed that plan by earning it on the practice fields. Newton signed a one-year deal in March, just over a month before the Patriots used the No. 15 overall pick in the draft on Jones.
With the news still fresh, we made some calls and texts around the league to properly assess the situation and forecast what's next for Jones, Newton and the Patriots. Why did the Patriots make this decision, and what will their offense look like with Jones at the helm? And where could Newton land now?
Reaction on the move
The Patriots hoped a healthier Newton, in Year 2 of the Patriots' system and with better weapons around him, would result in stronger command of the job. But save for an 8-of-9 performance in the second preseason game, Newton didn't deliver this summer.
"The tape doesn't lie. Cam just wasn't good," said an NFL personnel evaluator, citing Newton missing basic throws during preseason-game action. But another evaluator didn't totally agree, pointing out that Newton threw with good timing and location against the Philadelphia Eagles two weeks ago, and not all of his incompletions last week against the New York Giants were on him.
For others, a declining overall skill set is the bigger issue. Asked where Newton should land next year, one NFC exec said, "on TV." Last season, Newton attempted 1.9 passes per game at least 20 yards downfield, the lowest single-season average of his career by far. And he had eight touchdown passes in 15 starts, the fewest by a QB who started at least that many times in one season over the past 20 years.
Newton's contract included a $2 million signing bonus, a $100,000 workout bonus and $1.5 million in guaranteed salary -- for a total of $3.6 million -- which suggested his roster spot was safe. But teams aren't afraid of cutting players to whom they owe money. The Houston Texans just converted $7 million worth of Shaq Lawson's base salary into a signing bonus, then shipped him to New York for a sixth-round pick. He never played a down for them. And in the Patriots' case, the salary offsets if Newton gets a job elsewhere.
Jones outplayed him, both in terms of efficiency and volume. While Newton finished 14-of-21 for 162 yards, one score and one interception in preseason action, Jones went 36-of-52 for 389 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions. Pro Football Focus rated Jones the highest-ranked rookie passer in the preseason, with a 92.2 grade.
And when Newton missed five days last week while in the COVID-19 protocol, Jones capitalized with a stellar joint-practice session against the Giants. Reports out of camp say Jones completed 35 of 40 passes one day against New York, taking all the reps. The Patriots were grooming Jones, putting him in every situation to ensure he could check boxes.
What sealed the job for Jones?
It's not just what Belichick saw. It's what teammates and opposing coaches and evaluators noticed. One source who watched Jones at the Patriots-Giants practice said that although it's unfair to compare Jones to Tom Brady, Jones simply does some things like TB12.
"With his ability to make the right read, the decision-making, getting the ball out quickly and feeling the pocket, some of that stuff is there," the source said. "You watch him and you're like, 'OK, they have something.'"
Then you have team leaders such as linebacker Dont'a Hightower raving about Jones, who apparently has been reading the team's defensive playbook to understand all facets of the game. Hightower called him a "real smart dude" who is "going to go over the edge" by how hard he works. When the locker room knows, the coaches usually do, too.
Jones becomes the first quarterback drafted outside of the top 10 to start in Week 1 since EJ Manuel did so for Buffalo in 2013. The Patriots got an up-close look at Manuel in the AFC East and will be hoping for much more from Jones.
How does Jones change the offense?
Jones will see less designed runs -- a Newton specialty -- but his status as the starter signals a return to a signature Patriots offense. Truth is, New England had to tailor things around Newton, who can throw from the pocket or tuck and run. (With 5,398 career rushing yards, Newton is 711 rushing yards behind Michael Vick for the most by a QB in NFL history, and he had 592 yards and 12 TDs on the ground in 2020.)
I reached out to esteemed ESPN NFL analyst Matt Bowen, who said Jones will likely see plenty of quick-passing concepts out of an empty formation, with play-action over the middle of the field, schemed shot plays and leveled throws into the boundary area. This preseason, Jones went 10-for-12 for 148 yards on play-action passes, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
You can also expect a lot of running behind Damien Harris, James White and others, giving Jones manageable third downs. And considering the Patriots committed $25 million per year to free-agent tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry to keep defenses off balance, look for the Patriots to utilize intermediate throws to those tight ends and take deep shots when available.
More straight dropbacks should be in the playbook, as those are Jones' strength.
"When you look at his Alabama tape, Mac Jones had just about as good of a performance as you can; he wasn't just a byproduct of good players around him," said a veteran NFL assistant coach. "You can do a lot with him. He can handle it. They won't be throwing him 50 times a game, but they don't have to dumb it down, either. He takes it, sees it and rips it."
If Jones builds on his preseason, there's no reason why the Patriots can't contend for at least a wild-card spot. But I have a hard time putting them above the loaded Buffalo Bills in the AFC East.
Still, there aren't a ton of weaknesses on the roster. The defense will be better, and the playmaking options are markedly improved on offense. An experienced offensive line will give Jones time to throw. New England isn't as dynamic as the top-tier AFC teams but has plenty of balance.
Why release Newton instead of making him the backup?
Some people around the league believe Belichick gave Newton the option to be the backup or be released outright, out of respect. He appreciates Newton, who was a hard worker and tone-setter in the locker room. This likely wasn't the typical cut of a young player -- the "Coach wants to see you, give me your playbook."
Newton is also a larger-than-life personality, and some teams prefer backups to elude the spotlight. That's not to say Newton couldn't do that, but he was unwilling to accept a backup job as a free agent last year, so why would he want that now? Perhaps New England made that calculation.
Brian Hoyer was also cut, though there is an expectation that the Patriots will re-sign him. And Jarrett Stidham is still on the roster, but he won't be back for a while due to back surgery.
What's next for Newton?
To start, there isn't a starting job in the NFL available. But what Newton has going for him if he vies for a supporting role: He's just 32 years old and has 45 wins as a starter since 2015. That carries value.
"He will find a home as a backup," an AFC exec said. "I don't doubt that at all. I could see Minnesota bringing him in. They need a QB, a No. 2. [Kellen] Mond isn't ready."
Dallas is a natural spot, with Cooper Rush the only quarterback on the current roster behind Dak Prescott. The Cowboys will at least look into this one. Newton obviously wouldn't be a threat to Prescott, who is due $160 million over the next four years. But while he was durable through his first four seasons, Prescott is coming off ankle and shoulder issues. Having a trusted veteran such as Newton isn't a bad thing.
A few execs floated the Steelers as a possibility, but I'm not sure I see it. Coach Mike Tomlin pursued Dwayne Haskins as his high-pedigree project, and Mason Rudolph is under contract for two more years.
The question now becomes: Will Newton embrace a No. 2 job? The answer lies in a simple NFL axiom: You're only as good as your options.