We know by now which NFL teams have the best offenses heading into the 2021 season. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have reloaded, adding help along the offensive line. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are all-in on Super Bowl or bust. And Tom Brady and the Bucs are bringing back everyone.
But how can defenses stop them -- or at least slow them down? The best offenses aren't all built the same; each has different strengths and weaknesses that make them unique.
That's what I'm trying to figure out here. I picked the NFL's top six offenses and evaluated how they beat opponents. Then I detailed how I'd defend them if I were an NFL defensive coordinator and chose the current team that is best set up to follow that game plan.
We'll use the new ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) projections as a guide, but the six offenses I picked differ a little bit from FPI's. I'm including the Ravens (No. 8) and Cowboys (No. 10) because of how unique they are to the rest of the league -- and because they have high ceilings, provided they can stay healthy and click together. Plus, they're extremely difficult to defend.
Let's start with the Chiefs' offense and a defense that has gotten the best of Mahomes before.
Jump to a team:
Bucs | Bills | Chiefs
Cowboys | Packers | Ravens
Kansas City Chiefs
Projected offensive rank, per FPI: 1st
What the Chiefs do best: Andy Reid's offensive system is elite at creating explosive plays and isolation matchups out of 3x1 sets. Patrick Mahomes had 67 explosive-play throws in the regular season in 2020. And 28 of those -- nearly 42% -- came out of the "trips" formation. Those 28 explosive plays with three wideouts tied for second in the league. In this alignment, Kansas City can stretch defenses vertically and scheme deep crossers with Tyreek Hill, while also isolating Travis Kelce as the boundary X receiver to create defensive matchup issues. Look for the lightning-fast Mecole Hardman to be the third pass-catcher in this formation more this season.
What has changed in 2021: The Chiefs rebuilt and upgraded the offensive line, and they could have new starters at all five positions. Kansas City signed guard Joe Thuney to a big contract in free agency and traded for left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., while also investing draft capital in rookie center Creed Humphrey (Round 2) and guard Trey Smith (Round 6). And don't forget that guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, who opted out of the 2020 season, is back, though he is currently sidelined with a broken hand. Kansas City's O-line struggled in the Super Bowl LV loss to Tampa Bay, and general manager Brett Veach made it a priority to upgrade this offseason.
How I would defend Kansas City: Heavy split-safety coverage to limit explosive-play throws. Mahomes had a QBR of 87.6 against single-high coverage last season, with that number dipping to 81.7 against split-safety looks. Teams need to play with zone discipline (depth and eyes) in Quarters, Cover 2 and Cover 6. Here, I'd push my weak safety to the field side of the formation in Quarters "lock" (looking to cut the deep crosser), while using a linebacker/edge player to disrupt the release of Kelce into the boundary -- with a defender matching in man technique.
Team best set up to defend the Chiefs: New England Patriots.
We all know what the Bucs did to Kansas City's banged-up offensive front in February, but I still see Bill Belichick's Patriots unit as the best matchup against Mahomes & Co. In Week 4 last season -- the game in which New England had to play Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham at quarterback -- the Patriots played heavy dime (six defensive backs) and dollar personnel (seven DBs), varying both zone and man coverage.
A heavy single-high man defense, New England played Cover 2 -- with late secondary movement -- on 20% of Mahomes dropbacks to limit deep throws, while also using underneath lurkers and robbers in man schemes to manage the crossing routes in Reid's playbook. Mahomes managed only 236 passing yards in the 26-10 win, putting up his second-worst game of the season, according to QBR (55.5).
These two teams won't match up in the regular season, but another playoff game between them in January would be fun to watch. Keep an eye on corner duo Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson, who can match up to the Chiefs' receiving weapons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected offensive rank, per FPI: 5th
What the Bucs do best: Bruce Arians' system puts Tom Brady in a position to carve up defenses by throwing seams and overs off play-action out of 12 and 11 personnel. Brady averaged a league-leading 10.3 yards per attempt and had a QBR of 88.2 on play-action throws last season. If we include his four-game postseason run, that QBR number jumps to an otherworldly 91.2. This is classic Brady, delivering the ball with high-level location and accuracy to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. And we have to give credit to Arians and coordinator Byron Leftwich, who helped take this offense to the next level at the end of the season.
What has changed in 2021: The Bucs kept their offensive core in place by re-signing Godwin, Gronkowski and Brown. The Super Bowl champs aren't losing any starters off the offense, but they will get back tight end O.J. Howard, who ruptured his Achilles tendon in October, and also signed veteran pass-catching back Giovani Bernard. Both fit well in one of the league's most proficient pass games.
How I would defend Tampa Bay: Arians & Co. will go heavy 12 personnel (two tight ends) to get opposing defenses into single-high coverages, which means the defense will likely spin a safety down to get an extra run defender. Here, I'd sticking with Quarters and Cover 6 on early downs to top and match the inside seams, before going with loaded fronts and 2-man coverage in clear passing situations. That would allow my defense to scheme pass-rush matchups and stunts that prevent Brady from climbing the pocket, while also putting my safeties in a position to drive top down on the ball with aggressive underneath coverage.
Team best set up to defend the Bucs: New Orleans Saints.
Dennis Allen's defense got the best of Brady in the two regular-season matchups last season, as Brady had a Total QBR of 40.3 in Week 1 and a horrific 5.7 in a Week 9 blowout. And yes, the Bucs did win the divisional-round playoff game in January, but Brady completed only 54.5% of his passes and averaged 6.0 yards per attempt. It's clear that Allen has a recipe for success here.
The Saints led the NFL in 2-man coverage snaps last season, but it's more about how Allen schemes his defensive front and secondary to create pressure with four- and five-man rushes, while using his safeties -- Marcus Williams and Malcolm Jenkins -- to jump in-breaker routes.
I can't wait to see these NFC South teams play two more times this season, with New Orleans at home in Week 8 and Tampa at home in Week 15. Plus, there's always a chance at another playoff battle, with the expanded, seven-team field in each conference.
Buffalo Bills
Projected offensive rank, per FPI: 4th
What the Bills do best: Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll knows how to scheme up man coverage to get the matchups he wants. As my NFL Matchup teammate Greg Cosell says, the Bills "run away from man coverage." Daboll designs his game plan around giving his wide receivers free access off the ball to run crossers, overs and deep in-breakers. Including the playoffs last season, Josh Allen threw 31 of his 42 touchdown passes and had an elite QBR of 84.9 against man-to-man coverage. Stefon Diggs, one of the league's best route runners, ranked first in the NFL in total catches (127) and yards (1,535), and seven of his eight TDs came against man coverage.
What has changed in 2021: The Bills are bringing back nearly their entire starting offense, with the only change being veteran wideout Emmanuel Sanders -- a nuanced route runner -- replacing John Brown. The Bills used their first two draft picks on the defensive side of the ball, and I was surprised they didn't try to upgrade at tight end over Dawson Knox, who has been inconsistent since he was drafted in Round 3 in 2019.
How I would defend Buffalo: Everything runs through Allen and the pass game, so I'd try to make the fourth-year quarterback work post-snap with late secondary movement and disguise. Given Daboll's ability to game plan man coverage, I'd be heavy on zone coverage. Get six defensive backs on the field, spin the safeties late to two-deep zone shells and force Allen to throw the ball into contested windows. Simply put, defensives can't give Allen clean looks to read it out from the pocket after the ball is snapped. He proved last season that he will light up teams if they don't change up things.
Team best set up to defend the Bills: Kansas City Chiefs.
I like the Chiefs here because of coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's aggressive playcalling and the ability to use Tyrann Mathieu as a matchup wild card. In the AFC Championship Game win over Buffalo in January, the Chiefs brought zero-man pressure -- all-out blitzes -- on 17.5% of Allen's dropbacks. That's a big number.
Kansas City also played Cover 2 -- and 2 Robber, with Mathieu moving late as the middle hole defender -- on 28.1% of the snaps. That allowed the defense to heat up Allen in the pocket, forcing him to make quick reads while also making him work after the snap to decipher what the defensive backs were doing. The result? Allen threw 48 passes, but he only averaged 6.0 yards per attempt, and he was sacked four times.
The @Chiefs late movement and disguise in Steve Spagnuolo's defensive system. Here, we will focus on Cover 2 Robber, a staple scheme that allows safety @Mathieu_Era to play the "robber" technique as the middle hole defender. @MattBowen41 on the breakdown. pic.twitter.com/tKiSu1MoJC
— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) January 22, 2021
This year, the Bills and Chiefs meet in Week 5 on "Sunday Night Football," one of the best early games of the season.
Green Bay Packers
Projected offensive rank, per FPI: 2nd
What the Packers do best: Matt LaFleur's offense creates defined throws for Aaron Rodgers off play-action and motion. The reigning MVP played much more within the structure of LaFleur's game plan last season, putting up a league-best 94.2 QBR with 23 touchdown passes -- to zero interceptions -- on play-action throws. Rodgers also ranked No. 1 in completion percentage (76.5%) out of play-action, and he was only sacked on two of those dropbacks. This offense allows concepts that put Rodgers in a position to anticipate the window and deliver the ball with location -- in addition to the one-on-ones that he consistently identifies, particularly to Davante Adams, who is one of the NFL's best receivers.
What has changed in 2021: The Packers re-signed running back Aaron Jones, who is one of the best three-down backs you can find anywhere. They used a third-round pick on Amari Rodgers, a motion/movement player who can be used as a versatile offensive weapon, and traded for veteran slot receiver Randall Cobb. Green Bay also drafted center Josh Myers in Round 2, and he is slated to start, with veteran Corey Linsley leaving in free agency. This offensive line, however, still ranks near the top of the league.
How I would defend Green Bay: Start every defensive snap in a two-high shell and move from there. Given the efficiency of the Packers' zone run game with Jones and AJ Dillon, I'd play some Cover 3 and man-free to spin a safety late cut off the ball on the edge. Plus, I also can play some 3 Robber to put a safety in weeds -- waiting to close the window on the play-action throws. The core of my call sheet, though -- in addition to simulated pressures -- will lean on two-high schemes. You'd see Quarters and Cover 2/2-man from me against Rodgers to limit middle-of-the-field throws and get help over the top of Adams.
Team best set up to defend the Packers: Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
I like the Bucs here because of coordinator Todd Bowles' aggressiveness to scheme pass-rush matchups with their front four -- Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul, Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh -- from multiple fronts and alignments. Plus, with the pursuit speed of linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David, they can close angles to limit the Green Bay zone schemes.
In the two matchups against the Packers last season -- wins in Week 6 and in the NFC Championship Game -- the Bucs had blitz rates of 40.5% and 43.4%, respectfully. Rodgers did not play like he did the rest of his season. Bowles will attack the pocket with second-level blitzers and play coverage with two deep safeties over the top.
The Bucs and Packers don't play in the regular season in 2021, but it'd be no shock to see another entertaining matchup in January. They'll also both be targeting the No. 1 seed in the NFC, which is now the only team that gets a postseason bye.
Baltimore Ravens
Projected offensive rank, per FPI: 8th
What the Ravens do best: Coordinator Greg Roman puts his offense in the best position to gain a numbers advantage with a multidimensional run game. Yes, Baltimore's 191.9 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry both led the NFL during the 2020 season, but I'm not talking about totals when I say "gain numbers." I'm talking about the ability to have more blockers than the defense has tacklers. The Ravens moved to a more gap-heavy system last season, leaning on both counter and GT (guard and tackle pull), with the influence of quarterback Lamar Jackson as a runner. Jackson produced 650 yards rushing on designed QB carries, which complements the downhill style of backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Roman's system uses motion and pre-snap movement to gain numbers and blocking angles to the play side. No other team plays like this one.
The @Ravens love to get dynamic runners on the perimeter, namely @Lj_era8 and @Jkdobbins22. @MattBowen41 gives detail on how they create confusion for opposing defenses. pic.twitter.com/qHdZeV6pNl
— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) January 9, 2021
What has changed in 2021: With right tackle Orlando Brown Jr. requesting and receiving a trade, the Ravens addressed the right side of the O-line with veteran guard Kevin Zeitler and tackle Alejandro Villanueva, while stellar left tackle Ronnie Stanley also is back after a season-ending ankle injury in November. Plus, to boost the pass game with Jackson, the Ravens signed wide receiver Sammy Watkins and drafted two rookies in Rashod Bateman (Round 1) and Tylan Wallace (Round 4). Baltimore should have a more complete offense this season -- if it can stay healthy.
How I would defend Baltimore: I'd steal a little bit from the Patriots, who defended the Ravens extremely well in Week 10 last season, and specifically regarding how they used safeties Adrian Phillips and Kyle Dugger. I'd get both of my safeties on the field in sub-package personnel to play as overhang defenders to limit edge run schemes and account for Jackson's speed. I'd mix up my front looks too, jumping from four-man alignments to bear fronts. I'd also stay in zone coverage to limit Jackson's ability to escape and extend outside of the pocket. Get to Cover 3 here -- which the Patriots played on 72.5% of Jackson's dropbacks in that game last season.
Team best set up to defend the Ravens: Buffalo Bills.
I could go with the Patriots here again, but the Bills have the defenders to shut down Jackson & Co. The Bills are much more multiple on defense than most expect, and we saw that in the 17-3 divisional-round win over the Ravens in January.
Coordinator Leslie Frazier put up a blitz rate of 41.3% in that game, using safety Micah Hyde and linebacker Matt Milano to crash the edges against the Ravens' run game. Buffalo also mixed fronts, spinning from its split-safety looks to get a numbers advantage at the point of attack. This Bills defense is one of the league's most fundamentally sound units, which is important with all of the motion the Ravens use.
We won't see the Ravens and Bills play in the regular season this year, but both are FPI's favorites to win their division and make the playoffs.
Dallas Cowboys
Projected offensive rank, per FPI: 10th
What the Cowboys do best: Dak Prescott attacks defenses vertically in the pass game. This is far from a dink-and-dunk offense. From Weeks 1 to 5 last season, before Prescott suffered his season-ending ankle injury, the quarterback led the NFL with 1,856 passing yards and averaged 8.4 yards per attempt. That's a small sample, but Prescott was on pace to shatter Peyton Manning's passing yards record (5,477). Coordinator Kellen Moore allows Prescott to attack the middle of the field and stretch defenses over the top, and the Cowboys have an excellent trio with top wideouts Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup.
What has changed in 2021: The offensive personnel won't change for Dallas, but this is more about having a healthy offensive front, in addition to getting back Prescott. With left tackle Tyron Smith, right tackle La'el Collins and right guard Zack Martin all seeing time on injured reserve last season, the Cowboys enter 2021 with their O-line starters ready to go. If they can stay healthy, there's no doubt this is going to be one of the NFL's best offenses.
How I would defend Dallas: I'd try to close the middle of the field to limit Lamb on seams and benders, while also putting a cover corner on the backside to match both Gallup and Cooper on vertical throws. I'd want to play a mix of Quarters and 3-match to account for inside verticals and overs, plus the run game carries for Ezekiel Elliott, while also having the personnel to lock the backside X receiver. Look for both Lamb and Gallup to align both outside and in the slot this season, and we could see more two-tight end play-action looks with Prescott under center to throw in-breakers and attack the edge on boots.
Team best set up to defend the Cowboys: Washington Football Team.
Washington has an outstanding defensive front filled with first-rounders Chase Young (2020), Montez Sweat (2019), Daron Payne (2018) and Jonathan Allen (2017). Coordinator Jack Del Rio and coach Ron Rivera can run games on the defensive line and scheme one-on-ones for Young, who is already one of the league's best edge rushers. Attack the pocket with four and get crafty with situational pressure to change up looks for Prescott.
Washington was more zone-heavy last season, leaning on Cover 3, Quarters and Cover 2. With the addition of free-agent cornerback William Jackson, though, we could see an uptick in man coverage reps. Jackson also could be the "lock" corner when Washington wants to put him alone to the backside of zone coverage schemes.
This is a great NFC East matchup that we get to watch twice in 2021, both coming in the final stretch of the season. Washington is the home team in Week 14, while Dallas plays host in Week 16.