MVP winners don't always come from obvious places. On one hand, you could argue that the Associated Press' MVP pick in 2021 will probably be a quarterback, and chances are that you'll be right. On the other, think about the past two winners and what their situations looked like heading into their award-winning years.
Lamar Jackson had just been shut down by the Chargers in the 2018 playoffs, and there were people who believed that the Ravens star's rookie season was just a flash in the pan. Jackson then threw five touchdown passes against the Dolphins in the 2019 season opener and was an easy MVP pick by the end of the year.
Last season, of course, the Packers were seemingly preparing to move on from Aaron Rodgers after they picked Jordan Love in Round 1 of the 2020 draft. Rodgers was a two-time MVP and a future Hall of Famer, but it looked like he had transitioned into a low-risk, low-reward quarterback in his late-30s. Despite Green Bay failing to add significant help for Rodgers last offseason, however, he leveled up and threw 49 touchdown passes in an incredible campaign, claiming his third MVP award in the process.
Who will be the MVP in 2021? Let's use history to provide a list of plausible candidates for the nod. Doing so requires more names than you might think. If we solely go off the players who have won the AP's MVP award in prior years and use their archetypes to identify candidates in 2021, you have to name 237 players as possible options. If that seems ridiculous, well, read on and you'll understand why it's not.
I've split the candidates up into nine groups. With each group, I'll explain how and why they've produced an MVP candidate and identify both a favorite and a player who is far less likely to take home the trophy. I'll start with the most likely group of winners and work my way toward the least plausible options.
Jump to a tier:
HOF QBs | QBs on rookie deals
Established QBs | Middling QBs
The other 79 QBs | Record-breaking RBs
Star WRs/TEs | Elite pass-rushers | Kickers
Group I: The Hall of Fame quarterbacks
Well, duh. If you're already good enough to be enshrined in Canton, you're not going to have much trouble competing for an MVP award. This group delivered the eventual MVP last season, and it is the favorite to do so again in 2021.
Candidates (5): Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson
My favorite from this group: Mahomes. I thought that he had already done enough to be enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame before the 2020 season began, so even though the Chiefs came up short in Super Bowl LV, my opinion on the 25-year-old Kansas City starter hasn't changed. With the move to 17 games, Mahomes has the best shot of any quarterback at setting passing records this season. That alone wouldn't be enough to win an award, but the Chiefs are also huge favorites in the AFC West. The most productive quarterback in the league who wins his division usually wins MVP.
My least favorite from this group: Roethlisberger. Usually, the easy pick would be to go against the reigning MVP, if only because it's so difficult to take home the award in back-to-back seasons. It'll be tough for Rodgers to win his fourth MVP, but Roethlisberger looked like he was fading fast during the second half of last season. The Steelers star posted a 56.3 QBR during the final eight weeks, wedging him between Drew Lock and Jared Goff. With a makeshift offensive line attempting to protect him, it's tough to see the 39-year-old Roethlisberger producing MVP numbers.
Group II: The starting quarterbacks on rookie deals
This set of players has produced a number of MVPs and near MVPs in recent years, including Carson Wentz's near win in 2017, Mahomes' victory in 2018 and Jackson's successful run in 2019. This list almost always has the trendiest candidate of the bunch, although I wonder if a post-hype option might be best this season.
Candidates (13): Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Sam Darnold, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Drew Lock, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson
My favorite from this group: Murray. While he was the trendy candidate in 2020 following the second-year successes of Mahomes and Jackson, his season peaked with that Hail Mary in the win over the Bills. Injuries and inconsistency cost Murray down the stretch. All the arguments around him from a year ago should still be in play in 2021, though, and the Cardinals finally added some speed they'll want to play at wide receiver by drafting Rondale Moore in Round 2. MVPs typically need to have a better season than they had in the prior year to win this award, which pushes Murray ahead of Allen for me, if only because Allen was so good in 2020.
My least favorite from this group: Wilson. The Jets starter has more to work with than Darnold across the latter's three seasons in New York, but the other marginal quarterbacks on this list each have more weapons and/or better protection than 2021's second overall draft pick.
Group III: Established, effective starting quarterbacks
Average to very good starting quarterbacks aren't the first players who come to mind when we think about possible MVP picks, but they win the award more often than you might think. Remember Matt Ryan waking up from a mid-career lull as a pretty good quarterback to post one of the best seasons in league history in 2016? Russell Wilson was in this group a year ago and looked like he was about to win the award after his hot start, only to cool down during the season's second half. These guys aren't yet (or might never be) Hall of Famers, but they're threats to take home the award with a career year.
Candidates (11): Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Cam Newton, Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz
My favorite from this group: Prescott. There were five instances of a quarterback throwing for 450 or more yards in a game last season. Three of them came from Prescott, who only finished four games before breaking his ankle in the fifth. The Cowboys starter was on pace to throw for 6,760 yards after the first four weeks of the season, and while that was partly because the Dallas defense was so horrific, Prescott has the opportunity to post some historic numbers in 2021 given the players around him.
My least favorite from this group: Let's leave Watson aside, since it seems like he might not play at all because he is facing 22 lawsuits alleging sexual assault and inappropriate behavior. I'll go for Goff, who is moving to a new offense in Detroit with the worst group of wide receivers in football. It's tough to imagine him posting career-best numbers or winning the division as the Lions rebuild.
Group IV: Low-end starting/high-end backup quarterbacks
A borderline starter winning MVP? We've seen quarterbacks who looked like they were fading out of starting work win this award in the distant past. You have to go back 40-plus years, but Ken Anderson (1981) and John Brodie (1970) won years removed from their last appearances in the Pro Bowl. The year before he won MVP, Anderson threw six touchdown passes against 13 picks. Nobody would have pegged the veteran as a plausible candidate -- and yet, that's what happened.
Candidates (6): Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Taysom Hill, Tyrod Taylor, Jameis Winston
My favorite from this group: Winston. I'm tempted to pick Fitzpatrick, given that the Harvard product is joining a Washington team with a great defense and has actually been a very good quarterback for most of the past two seasons. But Winston is the easy pick here. Playing for Sean Payton with Michael Thomas at wide receiver behind an excellent Saints offensive line, Winston has the chance to blow away expectations and his previously established label as a gaffe-prone quarterback. He certainly could lose the quarterback competition in camp to Hill and spend the entire year on the bench, but we're looking for the highest upside, not the highest floor.
My least favorite from this group: Taylor. As much as I defended Taylor as a viable starter during his time with the Bills, there's no denying that he has been a mess since splitting up with offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Taylor has barely completed 51% of his passes and has averaged 5.9 yards per attempt across 121 throws over the past three seasons. He would be first in line for the Texans if Watson doesn't report to camp, but that also seems to be the definition of being set up to fail.
Group V: Literally any other active quarterback
Yes, we have to consider any quarterback on an NFL roster as a possible MVP winner. For that, you can thank the most unlikely Hall of Famer in league history. In 1999, Kurt Warner was a 28-year-old backup out of Northern Iowa with 11 career pass attempts playing for a Rams team that had just ranked 24th in scoring. The Rams had added weapons that offseason in Marshall Faulk and Torry Holt, of course, but they were supposed to be for starting quarterback Trent Green.
When Green tore his ACL in the final preseason game, the job went to Warner, who responded with one of the best seasons in NFL history. Warner's story is incredible, and it's a reminder that we can't write off any quarterback until he actually gets the opportunity to play.
Candidates (79): Brandon Allen, Kyle Allen, C.J. Beathard, Kurt Benkert, David Blough, Ian Book, Blake Bortles, Tim Boyle, Jacoby Brissett, Jake Browning, Shane Buechele, Chase Daniel, Ben DiNucci, Joshua Dobbs, Jacob Dolegala, Jeff Driskel, Eric Dungey, Jacob Eason, Sam Ehlinger, Danny Etling, Justin Fields, Joe Flacco, Nick Foles, Feleipe Franks, Jake Fromm, Blaine Gabbert, Garrett Gilbert, Mike Glennon, Anthony Gordon, Will Grier, Ryan Griffin, Dwayne Haskins, Taylor Heinicke, Chad Henne, Devlin Hodges, Brian Hoyer, Tyler Huntley, Mac Jones, Case Keenum, DeShone Kizer, Trey Lance, Kyle Lauletta, Jordan Love, Jake Luton, Marcus Mariota, A.J. McCarron, Colt McCoy, Alex McGough, Trace McSorley, Davis Mills, Gardner Minshew, Kellen Mond, Steven Montez, James Morgan, Jalen Morton, Nick Mullens, Bryce Perkins, Nathan Peterman, Josh Rosen, Mason Rudolph, Cooper Rush, Brett Rypien, Kyle Shurmur, Trevor Siemian, Reid Sinnett, Geno Smith, Nate Stanley, Easton Stick, Jarrett Stidham, Chris Streveler, Nate Sudfeld, Clayton Thorson, Kyle Trask, Mitchell Trubisky, P.J. Walker, Davis Webb, Mike White, John Wolford, Logan Woodside
My favorite from this group: Lance. I'm well aware the 49ers are insisting that Garoppolo will be their starter, but they would save more than $24 million in cash and cap space by getting rid of him by the end of camp. Even if Garoppolo is on the Week 1 roster, he has made it out of September healthy once in four tries. Lance could have this job by Week 3, and the rookie's upside as a passer and runner is astronomical. The North Dakota State product might not be ready to play in Year 1 -- but what if he is?
My least favorite from this group: Peterman. I don't want to pick on the former Bills starter, but he has a career adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A+) of 22. If Jon Gruden coaxes an MVP season out of Peterman, the Raiders should rip up the coach's 10-year deal and give him one for 100 years.
Group VI: Running backs who could top 2,105 yards
As the league has moved toward the pass, running backs have become less likely to take home this award. Just one running back has been named MVP over the past 15 years, and that required Adrian Peterson to put the Vikings on his back for a 2,097-yard season and a division title in 2012. Last season, Derrick Henry joined Peterson in the 2K club with a 2,027-yard campaign, but Henry failed to net even one of the 50 MVP votes.
The 17-game season might open up a possibility for running backs to sneak back to the head of the table. Two-thousand yards might not be enough, but what if a running back sets the rushing record? Eric Dickerson ran for 2,105 yards in 1984, and while that was across 16 games, the voters might not be interested enough to care about a new rushing record requiring that extra contest. If a player breaks Dickerson's mark and no quarterback sets that position's own single-season record, the oft-discouraged halfback could come back into MVP vogue.
Candidates (25): Cam Akers, Saquon Barkley, Chris Carson, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Mike Davis, J.K. Dobbins, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Gibson, Melvin Gordon, Najee Harris, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, David Johnson, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, David Montgomery, Raheem Mostert, James Robinson, Miles Sanders, Jonathan Taylor
My favorite from this group: Cook. Henry was my favorite here a few weeks ago, but I keep thinking about the workload he endured last season, the change at offensive coordinator and the addition of Julio Jones. The chances of Henry getting 379 carries again in 2021, even in a 17-game season, are slim. Cook plays for a coach in Mike Zimmer who would happily run the Vikings standout into the ground, although injuries have been an ever-present thorn in Cook's side.
My least favorite from this group: Robinson. I'm as optimistic about the 2021 Jaguars as anyone, but I don't think they're going to be running the ball enough for Robinson to threaten the rushing record. The second-year undrafted free agent also is going to split time with Carlos Hyde and first-round pick Travis Etienne.
Group VII: Franchise wide receivers (and tight ends)
This group has actually never produced an AP MVP, although Jerry Rice won the PFWA's version of the award with his ridiculous 1987 campaign, in which he had 23 touchdowns in 12 games. I limited this tier to wide receivers last year, and I'm changing that given how productive Travis Kelce and Darren Waller have been over the past two seasons.
Star receivers have a better chance of winning the MVP than our final two groups, even if those latter two categories have actually produced winners in the past. There's a chance that 2021 will produce the first 2,000-yard season from a receiver in league history, which would attract MVP attention.
Candidates (33): Davante Adams, Brandon Aiyuk, Keenan Allen, Odell Beckham Jr., A.J. Brown, DJ Chark, Ja'Marr Chase, Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Tyreek Hill, T.Y. Hilton, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Jefferson, Julio Jones, Travis Kelce, CeeDee Lamb, Jarvis Landry, Tyler Lockett, Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Allen Robinson II, DeVonta Smith, Courtland Sutton, Adam Thielen, Michael Thomas, Jaylen Waddle, Darren Waller, Robert Woods
My favorite from this group: Adams. It would be tough for Aaron Rodgers to repeat as MVP, but if Adams is healthy for 17 games and plays like he did a year ago, the Green Bay wideout would have a credible case. Strip out the two games he missed and the game in which he got hurt last season and then prorate his performance for 17 games. You'll get a wild line: 146 catches for 1,750 yards and 24 touchdowns. With the Packers neglecting to add much receiving help this offseason, Adams is in line for another mammoth target share.
My least favorite from this group: Golladay. The new Giants wideout moves to a team that will offer plenty of competition for targets from a quarterback in Daniel Jones who hasn't been good over his first two NFL seasons. Golladay's injury history -- he played in only five games last season -- also makes it tough to count on the 27-year-old to play 17 games.
Group VIII: Superstar pass-rushers
Two defensive players have won the MVP award: Alan Page did it for the Vikings in 1971, and Lawrence Taylor took home the trophy for the Giants 15 years later. Page did it in an era before recorded sacks, while Taylor was able to put a number to his production. Taylor's 20.5 sacks weren't an NFL record at the time, as Mark Gastineau had hit 22 three years earlier, but Taylor was the focal point of a 14-2 team. Gastineau's Jets went 7-9.
The NFL record now stands at 22.5 sacks, but the league's best pass-rushers will get an extra game to try to hit 23 this season. I'm not sure a 23-sack season in itself would attract MVP attention, but 25 might have a shot. If a transcendent defender on a dominant defense blows away the prior record, he is going to earn some votes.
Candidates (31): Josh Allen, Shaq Barrett, Joey Bosa, Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner, Brian Burns, Calais Campbell, Bradley Chubb, Frank Clark, Fletcher Cox, Aaron Donald, Bud Dupree, Dante Fowler Jr., Myles Garrett, Trey Hendrickson, Jerry Hughes, Danielle Hunter, Chandler Jones, Chris Jones, Cameron Jordan, Matt Judon, DeMarcus Lawrence, Carl Lawson, Khalil Mack, Whitney Mercilus, Von Miller, Jason Pierre-Paul, Za'Darius Smith, T.J. Watt, Leonard Williams, Chase Young
My favorite from this group: Donald. I'm not picking against the three-time Defensive Player of the Year. I'd love to throw Garrett or one of the Bosa brothers out there given the havoc they can wreak on the edge, but Donald already has a 20.5-sack season to his name. If the Rams have a banner season on offense and force other teams to throw more in the second half, look out.
My least favorite from this group: Hendrickson. The new Bengals end only has one year of significant sack production on his record, and a closer look suggested most of his totals amounted to coverage sacks or cleaning up other people's work. The Bengals don't cover well enough to create many coverage sacks.
Group IX: Kickers
Yes, we have to finish up with kickers. In the abbreviated season of 1982, Washington kicker Mark Moseley went 20-of-21 on field goals and did enough to convince the electorate that a kicker was the most valuable player in football. He was a valuable kicker that season, but when I took a closer look at Moseley's milestone 33 years later, I'm not even sure the future Five Guys executive was even the best kicker in the league in 1982.
Moseley's award was a perfect storm. It came in an era before Sunday Ticket or wall-to-wall weekly coverage; most voters weren't able to see out-of-market games. The nine-game season meant quarterbacks and running backs didn't post impressive cumulative numbers, and the top six quarterbacks posted passer ratings within eight points of one another. The smaller sample played into Moseley's hands, since the chances of a kicker hitting more than 95% of his kicks in a 16-game season in that era were close to nil. I don't think this could happen again, but it has happened before, so ...
Candidates (34): Michael Badgley, Tyler Bass, Rodrigo Blankenship, Chris Boswell, Randy Bullock, Harrison Butker, Daniel Carlson, Mason Crosby, Jake Elliott, Ka'imi Fairbairn, Sam Ficken, Nick Folk, Graham Gano, Matt Gay, Robbie Gould, Dustin Hopkins, Greg Joseph, Younghoe Koo, Josh Lambo, Wil Lutz, Tucker McCann, Brandon McManus, Jason Myers, Cody Parkey, Riley Patterson, Matt Prater, Aldrick Rosas, Jason Sanders, Cairo Santos, Austin Seibert, Joey Slye, Ryan Succop, Justin Tucker, Greg Zuerlein
My favorite from this group: Tucker. Surely the consensus best kicker in football, Tucker's established reputation would help in an MVP race. It would take something dramatic for him to win, like hitting seven or eight game winners in the final minute for Baltimore. There's no kicker I would rather have in the NFL right now in those situations than him.
My least favorite from this group: Patterson. A rookie out of Memphis, Patterson hit 68.2% of his field goals during his final season in school. He is competing for the starting job in Minnesota, where kickers are seemingly cursed. Perversely, I'd like to find out what Mike Zimmer would do if his kicker performed well enough to win MVP, but I don't think this one is likely.