Only in the NFL is June 1 not actually on June 1. On paper, June 1 plays a huge role for teams as they plan their futures and plot their roster moves. It serves as a line of demarcation for salary-cap purposes as players are cut and traded. It also mostly locks in the compensatory draft pick formula for each organization, allowing teams to sign players without having to worry about canceling out one of the picks they earned for losing a free agent.
But in the NFL's reality, June 1 came on May 3, if not earlier. Heading into the NFL offseason, each team is allowed to designate two players as post-June 1 releases. On May 3, the league announced to teams that they were able to process signings and other roster decisions as if they were post-June 1 moves. What amounted to an accounting decision spurred several signings and will result in a handful more in the weeks to come.
Let's get into how the June 1 deadline works for NFL teams, give a couple of examples of how it influenced decision-making over the past few months and then explore what happens next. Now that teams are on the other side of May 3, what sort of signings are more likely to happen? And more interestingly, perhaps, are there potential trades that make sense?
Jump to a potential deal:
Jones | Ertz | Houston | Sherman
Okung | Tate | Gurley
How 'June 1' works
Let's consider two examples of why June 1 matters. First, take the Baltimore Ravens, who have historically been as invested in the compensatory pick game as anyone else. Over The Cap projects that the Ravens are set to earn two fourth-round picks for losing pass-rushers Matt Judon and Yannick Ngakoue.
Baltimore wanted to address the offensive line this offseason in free agency, and by being very specific about who they signed, the Ravens were able to hold onto those comp picks. First, they signed guard Kevin Zeitler, who was cut by the Giants. (Players who are released by their former teams don't factor in the compensatory pick formula.) Then they waited until after the June 1 (really May 3) deadline to sign tackle Alejandro Villanueva.
Since free agents signed after that deadline don't impact the compensatory pick formula, the Ravens added two starters without canceling out either of those fourth-round picks. Those two fourth-rounders are important for a team like Baltimore, which routinely finds players like Judon in the mid-to-late parts of the draft.
Consider the Julio Jones situation for the second example. In terms of accounting, the June 1 deadline determines how much unpaid bonus accelerates onto a team's cap, which impacts their available space. As part of Jones' most recent extension, the Atlanta Falcons gave the wideout a $25 million signing bonus in 2019 and an $11 million option bonus in 2020. While Jones gets paid that money up front, NFL teams are allowed to spread the accounting for bonuses evenly over the remaining length of a player's contract, with a five-year maximum. This works out well for teams until they want to move on from a player.
Leaving the base salaries aside, this is what the accounting for Jones' bonuses looks like on Atlanta's cap:
If the Falcons want to move on from Jones during the 2021 offseason, there's an issue: They've paid Jones $36 million in bonuses but accounted for only $12.75 million of those bonuses on their 2019 and 2020 caps. Once Jones comes off their roster, that remaining $23.25 million comes due. While it's currently scheduled to hit the cap between 2021 and 2023, moving on from a player causes the remaining unaccounted bonus money to accelerate into the present. Paying this money for a player who isn't on your roster is what's commonly referred to as dead money.
Here's where the timing matters. If the Falcons traded Jones before the June 1 deadline, all of that $23.25 million has to be accounted for on their 2021 cap. By waiting until after the June 1 (again, May 3) deadline, the Falcons gain more flexibility. If Atlanta trades Jones now, it would be responsible for only the dead money already on the 2021 cap, which amounts to $7.75 million. The remaining $15.5 million would accelerate onto next year's cap, where the Falcons have a little more wiggle room.
Accounting is boring, I know, but this helps determine when and how NFL teams make decisions. So which moves can teams make now that they are unencumbered by the compensatory pick formula and can create some more short-term cap space? Let's start with what would be the biggest move of them all ...
An Aaron Rodgers trade ...
Obviously, the biggest news of the offseason would be the Green Bay Packers trading away the reigning MVP. I've already written a lengthy piece detailing possible trade offers for Rodgers, which you can read here.
Falcons trade Julio Jones to ... Jacksonville Jaguars
Atlanta Falcons get: 2022 second-round pick, WR Laviska Shenault Jr.
The rumor mill continues to focus around Atlanta's star wideout, with Jones telling FS1's Undisputed show this week that he is "outta there." The Falcons chose to restructure Matt Ryan's contract this offseason and then drafted Kyle Pitts to supplement their receiving corps. Calvin Ridley is coming up for a significant extension. Atlanta is in rough cap shape, and Jones, 32, is occupying $23.1 million in room this season, which is the largest hit for any wideout in football. Jones is just beginning his three-year, $66 million extension, a deal the Falcons handed him with two years left to go before the 2019 campaign.
Falcons owner Arthur Blank has already paid Jones $36 million of that deal in bonuses, which is just one of the ways this trade would be painful. Jones is due a little over $38.3 million over the next three seasons, which would be reasonable enough for an acquiring team. Given that the top-tier wideout market cratered this offseason, though, and Jones missed chunks of 2021 with a hamstring injury, what would the market for Jones look like?
There's always a chance that some team gets blown away by the name and offers a first-round pick to the Falcons for their future Hall of Famer, but I don't think that's likely. At this point of the offseason, most teams would struggle to fit Jones into their cap situation, even with a restructure. Outside of the Colts, who aren't the type of team to give away significant draft capital for a player in his 30s, and the Raiders, who are out on their own limb, every team that would be in the running for Jones would have a quarterback on a rookie contract.
And even those teams would have some trouble justifying a Jones deal. The Browns, Chargers, Dolphins, Cardinals and Panthers are already set at wide receiver. The Ravens, Giants and Bengals just used a first-round pick on a wideout. The Eagles don't have cap space. The Bears don't have cap space and are already down their first-round pick in 2022.
I think you could limit this to five teams with quarterbacks on rookie deals in the Jaguars, Broncos, Jets, Patriots and 49ers. The Broncos have one of the deepest wideout depth charts in football. The Jets just spent big money on Corey Davis and have used consecutive second-round picks on wide receivers. The Kyle Shanahan link makes the 49ers a tantalizing option, but San Francisco is already down so much draft capital from the Trey Lance deal -- and it will need to use its cap space to re-sign guys like Fred Warner and Nick Bosa in the years to come.
So, then: Patriots or Jaguars? I know Bill Belichick has bought low on veteran receivers before and come away with one of the best seasons in league history from Randy Moss. When Belichick traded for Moss, though, he wasn't taking on much risk. The Pats dealt a fourth-round pick for Moss, who was 30 at the time. Moss agreed to take a massive pay cut and played on a one-year, $3 million pact. I don't think Jones is about to take a similar haircut, nor should he. Belichick just got burned sending a second-round pick to the Falcons for Mohamed Sanu Sr., who immediately suffered a high-ankle sprain and never recovered. I think he would tread very carefully here.
For the Jaguars, though, this deal is plausible. Jacksonville has plenty of cap space, and Trevor Lawrence is at least three years away from an extension. The Jags already established that they want to surround Lawrence with weapons, which is why they signed wideout Marvin Jones Jr. and drafted running back Travis Etienne in the first round this offseason. Etienne is taking snaps at wide receiver in minicamp, suggesting that the Jaguars want to use him in a hybrid role as a runner and receiver.
That role seemed earmarked for Shenault, which opens up a trade possibility. Shenault flashed promise as a rookie, but he was drafted by the now-deposed Dave Caldwell regime in Jacksonville. The 22-year-old still has three years left on his rookie deal, which would make him a low-cost option at receiver for a Falcons team that desperately needs cost-controlled talent. Shenault is not the sort of plug-and-play downfield weapon Arthur Smith had in Tennessee, but there's plenty to like with the Colorado player.
So, this trade might satisfy both team's needs. The Jaguars get a true No. 1 at wideout to play alongside Jones and DJ Chark Jr. while helping Lawrence develop. The Falcons get a low-cost solution to try to start replacing Jones and a second-round pick that projects to fall in the top half of the round. It's no fun to see a team move on from a franchise icon, but if it's going to happen, this would be one logical way for Atlanta to clear out cap space and get valuable players in return.
Eagles trade Zach Ertz to ... Buffalo Bills
Philadelphia Eagles get: 2022 seventh-round pick, TE Tommy Sweeney
It has become clear that Ertz's future isn't in Philadelphia. The Eagles didn't offer the tight end an extension last season, owing to their cap woes, the presence of Dallas Goedert and what ended up as a disastrous campaign for the veteran. Ertz set career lows across the board in virtually every measure of any kind, a scary sign for a player who just turned 30. On top of all that, Ertz's $12.7 million cap hit is the largest at his position in 2021.
The Eagles can save $8.5 million in cash and on their 2021 cap by moving on, but Ertz is not going to have a market at that price tag. Ertz would probably be looking at something in the $3 million to $4 million range on a one-year deal if he were released, so it wouldn't be surprising if he took a pay cut as part of a deal.
Naturally, with coach Frank Reich and QB Carson Wentz in Indianapolis, the Colts have been popularly linked with Ertz. They already have plenty of tight ends, though, and there's another team I think makes more sense. Bills general manager Brandon Beane proclaimed at the beginning of the offseason that his team needed to upgrade on Dawson Knox at tight end, but the only move Buffalo has made at the position is signing Jacob Hollister to a one-year deal.
Beane has been aggressive -- and successful -- in rehabilitating players who seemed to be struggling elsewhere over the past few years. He has also repeatedly gone after weapons for QB Josh Allen. Dealing a late-round pick and a player on the bottom of the roster in Sweeney for Ertz would give the Bills a well-regarded teammate and a player who was thought of as a premier tight end as recently as a year ago. With Ertz reducing his salary to $3.5 million as part of the deal, I love this low-risk, high-reward move for Buffalo.
Kawann Short, DT
Prediction: signs one-year, $3 million deal with the Buffalo Bills
This one's too obvious, right? The Bills love adding former Panthers players, especially if they cost a fraction of their former price tag. They've also built a deep defensive line that relies on rotating players in and out of the lineup from snap to snap.
Short is three years removed from his last truly impactful season, and he has missed 27 games over the past two seasons with injuries. But Buffalo is where former Panthers go to revitalize their careers. The Bills may not really need another defensive lineman on paper right now, but at this price tag, the upside Short offered during his peak would be too valuable to pass up.
Sheldon Richardson, DT
Prediction: signs one-year, $6 million deal with the New Orleans Saints
The Browns turned over both of their starting defensive tackles this offseason by letting Larry Ogunjobi leave and cutting Richardson. The latter move came after the Browns signed Jadeveon Clowney, and while the organization suggested that it would like to bring Richardson back, that reunion has yet to transpire.
Richardson can be a valuable three-down defensive tackle, which is something the Saints could use after losing Sheldon Rankins this offseason. It would obviously involve voidable years, but Richardson would slot in as the starter next to David Onyemata and allow Shy Tuttle to stay in a situational role.
Geno Atkins, DT
Prediction: signs one-year, $2.5 million deal with the Minnesota Vikings
You may see a theme of players reuniting with their former coaches in this piece. Atkins' breakout years came when Mike Zimmer was the defensive coordinator in Cincinnati, and the Vikings head coach could use some pass-rushing help in Minnesota. Atkins was anonymous last year as the Bengals reduced his role in the lineup, but the 33-year-old is only two seasons removed from a 10-sack campaign. Atkins would slot in as an interior rusher on passing downs as part of a rotation with run-stuffer Michael Pierce.
Melvin Ingram III, EDGE
Prediction: signs one-year, $5.5 million deal with the Los Angeles Chargers
Despite his success over the past several years, Ingram had zero sacks in seven games with the Chargers in 2020. The 2012 first-rounder struggled with a knee injury, which has undoubtedly limited his market. Given the need for edge-rushing talent around the NFL, though, it's hard to imagine Ingram not finding an opportunity at some point this offseason.
One of the teams most in need of help on the edge is the Chargers, who haven't really replaced Ingram this offseason. Los Angeles has one spot locked down with pass-rusher Joey Bosa, but if he were to get injured, coach Brandon Staley would be left with the likes of Kyler Fackrell and Uchenna Nwosu as his primary options on the edge. Bringing back Ingram would suit both parties.
Justin Houston, EDGE
Prediction: signs one-year, $6 million deal with the Baltimore Ravens
It hasn't even been a great market for healthier pass-rushers. Houston posted eight sacks and 12 knockdowns for the Colts this past season, but possibly owing to the knee injuries in his past, there hasn't been much interest in a new deal for the former Defensive Player of the Year. It wouldn't be a surprise if Houston re-signed with the Colts, but Indy did use a first-round pick on Kwity Paye and hasn't yet made a move to bring Houston back.
One natural landing point for Houston would be in Baltimore, where the Ravens will have to try to replace standout linebacker Matt Judon. John Harbaugh's team used a first-round pick on Odafe Oweh, but he might not be ready to contribute at the highest level as a rookie. Signing Houston would give the Ravens another option on the edge as part of their exotic blitz packages while allowing Oweh to ease his way into a larger role.
Since this deal comes after the June 1 cutoff, Baltimore would also be able to sign Houston without losing a compensatory pick.
Steven Nelson, CB
Prediction: signs one-year, $4.5 million deal with the Arizona Cardinals
One of the casualties created as Pittsburgh attempted to get under the salary cap, Nelson didn't attract any trade interest on his prior deal before being released. Despite reports that 14 teams have inquired about the former Chiefs cornerback, none of those teams have actually gotten a deal over the finish line. Per Pro Football Reference, Nelson allowed a 97.0 passer rating last year, up more than 31 points from his 2019 mark with the Steelers.
Plenty of teams need cornerback help, but the Cardinals appear to be punting on it. Arizona did use a pair of midround picks at corner, but its current starters on the outside appear to be Malcolm Butler and Robert Alford. Butler is a viable reclamation project, but Alford hasn't played since 2018 as a result of injuries. Nelson would give the Cardinals a replacement in their lineup for Patrick Peterson and prevent them from having to count on Alford to stay healthy.
Richard Sherman, CB
Prediction: signs one-year, $4 million deal with the San Francisco 49ers
The future Hall of Famer could make sense for a number of teams, which is why he has been linked to the Jets, Saints and even the Seahawks this offseason. Sherman is 33 and missed 11 games in 2020 with a calf injury, but he was an effective cornerback during his time with the 49ers. He's not going to be the All-Pro corner from the peak Seattle days, but Sherman is still a very viable NFL starter at this point of his career. Sherman's understanding of the game and insight into preparation may also be valuable to teams as they develop younger corners on the roster.
San Francisco was able to get by without Sherman, thanks in part to a remarkable season from Jason Verrett. Verrett signed a one-year, $5.5 million deal to return to the 49ers, but the former Chargers star had missed 70 out of 96 possible games across his first six pro seasons before suiting up 13 times in 2020. Adding Sherman would protect the 49ers against another Verrett injury and bring back a key part of their locker room, which could mean more than it would in a typical year given Robert Saleh's departure.
K.J. Wright, LB
Prediction: signs one-year, $2.5 million deal with the Los Angeles Rams
Sherman's former teammate played well last year in Seattle, but the market for veteran off-the-ball linebackers is typically bleak, and Wright has been one of the players squeezed. The Seahawks have talked about bringing Wright back, but coach Pete Carroll could also be ready to insert 2020 first-rounder Jordyn Brooks into the lineup as Wright's replacement. Wright said he wouldn't take a hometown discount to stay with the Seahawks, but he's probably looking at a short-term deal in the $3 million range.
Just as Sherman used the opportunity of leaving Seattle to sign with a division rival in San Francisco, what about Wright making a move to Los Angeles? The Rams basically have a void at linebacker as a product of their cap issues and heavy spending elsewhere on the defensive side of the ball. Wright would step in on the weak side as an immediate starter, possibly alongside rookie third-rounder Ernest Jones.
Russell Okung, OT
Prediction: signs one-year, $6.5 million deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers
One more first-rounder to complete the set. I'm stunned that Okung hasn't yet signed a contract, given that he's the last useful left tackle standing on the open market in a league where a handful of competitive teams still need to lock down their quarterback's blindside. Okung missed time with a pulmonary embolism in 2019 and a calf injury last season, but he was a solid left tackle when on the field.
The Steelers have been pinching pennies just to get under the salary cap, but if there's any position where they need to spend money, it's at left tackle. Pittsburgh let Alejandro Villanueva move on this past season, leaving Chukwuma Okorafor as the favorite to start on the line's most important position. Okorafor started last year at right tackle after Zach Banner went down injured, but Ben Roethlisberger would be staring down one of the least imposing sets of starting tackles in the league on paper without an addition. It might take voidable years or a Dogecoin option to get the deal done, but Okung would be a major upgrade for a team that has one more shot with Roethlisberger.
Trai Turner, G
Prediction: signs one-year, $4.5 million deal with the Detroit Lions
An imposing run-blocker who made five straight Pro Bowls from 2015 to 2019, Turner was limited to nine games by multiple injuries last season. The Chargers cut Turner after the season in a quiet market, but there are too many lineman-needy teams out there for Turner to start the year without a job.
The Lions are starting over on offense, and we know how much coach Dan Campbell wants wrecking balls at the line of scrimmage. Turner would step in at right guard and help solidify the line in front of new Detroit quarterback Jared Goff.
Golden Tate, WR
Prediction: signs one-year, $1.1 million deal with the Tennessee Titans
If we assume that Larry Fitzgerald is retiring, Tate is the most notable wide receiver available on the market. The former Seahawks draftee didn't look great in his two-year run with the Giants, although you could blame Daniel Jones for some of those problems. Tate is likely looking at a one-year deal for the veterans minimum if he wants to continue playing.
With the Titans cutting Adam Humphries and losing Corey Davis this offseason, I think there's a reasonable fit for Tate as the third or fourth wideout in Tennessee, where his tenacity as a blocker could make him a useful part of the offense.
Todd Gurley II, RB
Prediction: signs one-year, $1.1 million deal with the Kansas City Chiefs
Let's finish up with Gurley, who is still somehow only 26 years old. The former two-time All-Pro averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and ranked 44th out of 47 backs in DVOA last season. At this point, Gurley will have to be realistic: He's not going to get an opportunity to serve as a starting back. He hasn't been an explosive receiver over the past couple of seasons, but his best role might be as a third-down back, where he can block and serve as a sure pair of hands on checkdowns.
At this point of the offseason, though, just about every running back spot is filled. Gurley could wait for an opportunity to open up via injury, like Devonta Freeman did a year ago, but I wonder whether there's a fit on the AFC champs. The Chiefs obviously are moving forward with Clyde Edwards-Helaire as their starter, but the backups for their first-round pick are the unconvincing duo of Darrel Williams and Jerick McKinnon.
Gurley would have to come into camp and compete with those guys for a roster spot, but there's an opportunity for a few snaps per game on one of the league's best offenses behind Edwards-Helaire.