The Cleveland Browns are one of the best teams in the NFL and a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
When was the last time you heard someone make that statement with a straight face? It has certainly been a long time for the Browns, but their emergence is hardly a surprise if you've been paying attention.
The Browns reached a franchise low point when they finished with the dreaded 0-16 record in 2017, but their Sashi Brown-induced rebuild was already underway, and a strong 2018 offseason set the foundation for their inevitable ascension to contender status in the AFC. The Browns jumped to 7-8-1 in 2018 before stumbling to 6-10 in 2019 and then making a big leap in 2020 with an 11-5 regular season -- followed by a playoff win over the division-rival Steelers. It was their most wins and first playoff victory since 1994.
Of course, naysayers will point out Cleveland's strong 2020 campaign was fluky. The Browns were the only one of 14 playoff teams with a negative regular-season scoring differential (minus-11). Of their 11 regular-season wins, eight were against teams with losing records, and another was a Week 17 game against Pittsburgh's backups. Cleveland went 0-2 and was outscored 85-48 in two games against the division-rival Ravens, and despite beating Pittsburgh in the playoffs, it was also crushed by the eventual division champs 38-7 in Week 3. Cleveland also lost in the playoffs to a Chiefs team that was without Patrick Mahomes in the fourth quarter. And, worst of all, they lost a regular-season game to the Jets.
There are some legitimate points in there, and Cleveland will need to overcome Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Kansas City in order to punch its ticket to Super Bowl LVI. So, the question is why now? Why will the Browns finally be able to get it done this time around? Here's the reasoning behind Cleveland's case as a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2021.
Ignore the obvious narrative
Remember the Pepsi Challenge? It was a marketing promotion in which random shoppers would taste test Pepsi and Coca-Cola while blindfolded and pick their favorite. They didn't know which was which and let their taste buds do the work.
That's essentially the same way I evaluate each team's roster talent each offseason. Ignore the uniform, the history and the narratives. As I pointed out back in 2018, a franchise's past success and failures are irrelevant to its future production. It's easy to mock the Browns' decades of struggles, but that's a lazy way to project the future. The fact is all 32 teams are currently 0-0 and what matters is the players and personnel currently in place. Do your own Pepsi Challenge with each of the 32 rosters, and good luck not slotting the Browns near the top of the NFL.
The young quarterback has a lot of help
I'll get to said "young quarterback" shortly, but let's start with his supporting cast. After all, a highly productive and talented offense was the primary reason for the Browns' 2020 emergence.
Cleveland's offensive line -- a key component to successful team building -- was tops in the NFL by most objective measures last season, and all five starters will be back in 2021. That includes 2020 first-round pick Jedrick Wills Jr., who was a serviceable left tackle as a 21-year-old rookie, and common logic suggests he'll take a step forward in his second season. Reigning first-team All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin ranked in the top 10 in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade and pass block win rate among tackles.
On the interior, center JC Tretter (top five in PFF grade and pass block win rate) and left guard Joel Bitonio (No. 1 at the position in pass block win rate and PFF's fifth-highest-graded guard) were their usually dominant selves. And right guard Wyatt Teller was a Cinderella story, as the unheralded 2018 fifth-round pick came out of nowhere to finish as PFF's top-graded guard while being voted to the All-Pro second team.
Cleveland also has a deep group of offensive skill position players. Odell Beckham Jr. has missed significant action due to injuries in recent years, but the 28-year-old is still one of the league's best wide receivers when healthy. We saw that last season when he accounted for 391 yards and four TDs in six full games. Reliable Jarvis Landry returns as the slot man, too. The 28-year-old has never finished a season with fewer than 72 receptions and ranks third in the category since he was drafted in 2014.
Cleveland's WR depth is a bit of a question mark, but Rashard Higgins was solid in Beckham's place last season, and the team spent a third-round pick on the speedy Anthony Schwartz in April.
Of course, Cleveland has built a roster with quality talent and depth at running back (Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt form the league's best RB duo) and tight end (Austin Hooper, David Njoku and Harrison Bryant), which has allowed head coach and playcaller Kevin Stefanski a ton of flexibility with personnel packages. Cleveland ranked 29th in three-plus WR sets (43%) last season but second in multiple TE sets (50%) and 10th in two-plus RB sets (15%).
Fourteen offensive skill position players handled at least 70 snaps for the Browns last season, and all 14 of them remain on the 2021 roster. Considering how well they performed last season, that's a very good thing.
Baker Mayfield looks legit
Any offensive analysis is incomplete without a thorough look at the most important position in football: quarterback. And Mayfield is entering a critical season of his career.
The 2018 first overall pick has had his ups and downs, and Cleveland will need to decide whether or not he deserves an extremely expensive long-term contract extension. Mayfield will have no excuses this season, as he'll benefit from arguably the league's best supporting cast. If he plays good ball, Cleveland has a franchise quarterback and is a Super Bowl contender, while Mayfield becomes one of the richest players in the NFL. If he plays poorly, the Browns could go back to the drawing board next offseason.
Mayfield has looked good in two of his first three NFL seasons. As far as rookie QBs go, he was outstanding in 2018. Cleveland's 2019 season was such a mess that it's tempting to not hold it against him. And most recently in 2020, Mayfield was arguably one of the league's 10 most effective quarterbacks. He ranked 11th in QBR, 14th in PFF grade and 12th in net yards per attempt, with only a who's who of the league's best QBs ahead of him in most categories.
Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism that Mayfield is the real deal is the way he finished the 2020 season. After suffering through a three-game stretch of horrific wind and weather during Weeks 8-11, Cleveland leaned less on its running game and more on Mayfield. He responded well in the team's final eight games (two during the playoffs) with 16 TDs and two INTs while averaging 272.5 yards per game. Mayfield was already establishing himself as a capable NFL starter, but his finish to 2020 suggests he can be even more.
Cleveland's defense is the most improved unit in the NFL
The elephant in the room when talking about the Browns is a defense that ranked 25th in Football Outsiders' DVOA and no better than average in forced turnovers, sacks, yardage allowed and points allowed last season.
The team's front office decided that wasn't good enough, so the Browns cleaned house during the offseason. And when I say "cleaned house," I mean it. Of the team's top 10 players in terms of defensive snaps played last season, only two remain on the 2021 roster: stars Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward. Often times, this sort of development is bad news, but Cleveland upgraded at nearly every position.
Edge
The team's edge rushing group is, of course, led by 2020 first-team All-Pro Garrett. The 25-year-old racked up double-digit sacks in each of the past three seasons, and his 25.7% pass rush win rate was third best among edge rushers in 2020.
One of Cleveland's most impactful offseason moves was the addition of former first overall pick Jadeveon Clowney as Garrett's running mate. Clowney's critics will point out his sackless 2020 campaign and recent durability woes, but the vilification is not especially warranted. On the former, Clowney's 18.4% pass rush win rate ranked 17th among 81 edge rushers with 200-plus pass-rushing attempts last season. And that was a "bad" year for him after he ranked top five in the category in both 2018 and 2019.
As for his perceived injury red flag, yes, Clowney missed nine games last season, but he had missed a total of five games during the previous four seasons (2016-19). Clowney is only 28 years old and a strong candidate for a rebound campaign opposite Garrett.
Both Garrett and Clowney figure to see fewer double-teams when on the field together, and their presence could also free up newcomer Takkarist McKinley for more pressure and sacks. Though he missed most of 2020 and has struggled with consistency, McKinley's 24.0% pass rush win rate since he was drafted in 2017 is fifth best among edge rushers.
Secondary
Another strength for Cleveland is its overhauled secondary. Ward has emerged as one of the league's top corners and will be joined in the starting lineup by Troy Hill, who played 95% of the snaps for the Rams' elite 2020 defense. Hill has the ability to kick to the slot in nickel, which opens the door for either first-round rookie Greg Newsome II or 2019 second-round pick Greedy Williams -- who was effective as a rookie but missed all of 2020 with a shoulder injury -- to step in as the team's third corner. That's a very good group with elite upside.
At safety, Cleveland signed another former Rams standout in John Johnson III. Johnson played a Rams-high 1,116 of a possible 1,118 snaps last season and was one of the top available free agents on the market. And the 25-year-old was PFF's third-highest-graded safety in 2020. Ronnie Harrison would be a serviceable running mate for Johnson, but he has competition, as 2020 second-round pick Grant Delpit is expected back after missing his rookie season with an Achilles injury. Again, this has the potential to be a very good, and perhaps elite, unit.
Tackle and linebacker
The potential weak spots on the Cleveland defense are on the interior defensive line and off-the-ball linebacker. Up front, Cleveland signed Malik Jackson and Sheldon Day, will get Andrew Billings back from the COVID opt-out list and will expect production from recent mid-round picks Jordan Elliott and Tommy Togiai. It's also possible Sheldon Richardson (a cap casualty after the Clowney signing) returns at a lesser salary. That would certainly solidify the unit, but for now, there is plenty of uncertainty.
At linebacker, it will be a competition between incumbents Malcolm Smith, Sione Takitaki, Mack Wilson and Jacob Phillips, as well as free-agent signing Anthony Walker and rookies Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (second round) and Tony Fields II (fifth round). Considering Cleveland figures to lean on more three-safety sets, it really only needs standout play from one or two of these players.
Despite the question marks, Cleveland is extremely strong where it counts most, at edge and in the secondary, which positions it to be a top-10 defense on paper. That's a vast improvement from where this unit was exactly one year ago.
Kevin Stefanski is an asset
Coaching matters, and the past few seasons in Cleveland provide some pretty strong evidence of that. Cleveland had a playoff-caliber roster when it struggled to six wins under Freddie Kitchens in 2019, but when it upgraded to Stefanski last offseason, the former Vikings offensive coordinator maximized the team's roster talent en route to a five-game improvement in wins. Appropriately, he was named the coach of the year by the AP, PFWA and Sporting News.
Stefanski is only 38 but has emerged as one of the league's top offensive minds. He has been a playcaller for two full NFL seasons, and both of his offenses overcame preseason question marks and/or key injuries en route to emerging as high-scoring and efficient units. That includes a 2019 Minnesota offense that ranked ninth in offensive DVOA and a 2020 Cleveland unit that ranked 10th.
The AFC can be had
Aside of the Browns, the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills remain the obvious favorites in the AFC, but will anyone else join them? I think you could make the case that eight of the league's 12 best teams reside in the NFC. The Patriots and perhaps the Broncos and Chargers have potential -- but also significant question marks. The Dolphins and Colts both won 10-plus games last season, but I'm expecting a step back for both in 2021.
One glaring omission from the list is the Steelers. Pittsburgh looked like a powerhouse while beating up on bad teams during most of 2020, but things came to a head down the stretch, as the Steelers lost four of their final five games (including the Week 17 rest game).
Pittsburgh's defense still has plenty of talent, but it's not quite as good as it was last season after the offseason departures of Bud Dupree, Steven Nelson and Mike Hilton. Offensively, the team's skill position players are very good, but Ben Roethlisberger's play slipped last season, as he finished outside the top 20 in QBR, PFF grades and net yards per attempt. Perhaps most concerning is a Steelers offensive line that is arguably the worst in the NFL after losing three starters during the offseason. Only two linemen on the roster played more than 340 snaps in 2020.
This is all a long way of saying that a potential decline by the Steelers plays right into the Browns' hands as a legitimate AFC threat.
The schedule may be the division's easiest
Though the Browns made the playoffs last season, they finished third in the AFC North. That's notable as it pertains to the 2021 schedule. The division-champion Steelers' unique games will be against the Bills, Titans and Seahawks, and the second-place Ravens' uniques are against the Dolphins, Colts and Rams. The Browns, meanwhile, draw the Patriots, Texans and Cardinals.
Based on current rosters, I have the Browns projected to have the league's 15th-toughest schedule, compared to 11th toughest for Baltimore, fifth toughest for Cincinnati and the second toughest -- and toughest in the AFC -- for Pittsburgh. It's worth noting that the Browns open their season at Kansas City, which will be an opportunity to quickly establish themselves as an AFC powerhouse.
The bottom line
When I wrote my aforementioned Browns hype piece back in 2018, I wrapped it up with a "bottom line" section just like this one. I said: "The Browns are probably still one good offseason away from contending in the AFC." As it turned out, they were two offseasons away from a return to the postseason.
Today, things are different. This is no longer just a potential playoff contender. If the Browns are anything less than legitimate threats to Kansas City for the AFC crown, the season will be a letdown.
In the words of legendary Browns coach Paul Brown, "Feathered with hoarfrost, skeletal trees loom closer; fog shrouded arches." I have no idea what that means, but he added: "Leave as little to chance as possible. Preparation is the key to success."
The coach is in place. The quarterback is ready. Top to bottom, the roster is one of the best in the NFL. The preparation has been done. Time will tell if this group can get Cleveland its first league title since 1964 -- or if it'll just end up covered in hoarfrost.