One of the most underrated things about the NFL draft is that it doesn't matter whether a prospect goes in Round 1 or Round 7 as much as which team drafts him and whether that team is a fit for his skill set and puts him in the best position to succeed.
That's one of the biggest reasons that we see first-round busts; talented prospects sometimes land with poor fits. It's also why we see so many late-round picks or even undrafted free agents have good pro careers; they land in a situation that fits them.
There was a ton of talent in the 2021 class, but I wanted to find my favorite fits -- the prospects who landed on teams that fit them perfectly. Scheme fit and coaching are vital parts of early development and production in the league, and so I picked 10 who could thrive early below.
I also chose five of my favorite value picks, along with five more potential Day 3 steals. These are guys who weren't first-round picks but could play early and often because of their high-end physical traits and the situation on the team that picked them. Let's go:
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Rookies who landed in ideal spots
Value picks who could play early
Day 3 picks who could be steals
Ten rookies who landed with the perfect team
Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Round 1, No. 3 overall (North Dakota State)
This is my favorite fit among the five first-round quarterbacks. Let's focus on the arm talent and processing ability of Lance in Kyle Shanahan's play-action-heavy pass game. Back in 2019, when Lance led North Dakota State to an undefeated season and the FCS national title, he averaged 10.6 yards per attempt on play-action throws, with 16 touchdown passes and no interceptions, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
The play-action mechanics jump on Lance's college tape, and so does his decision-making. In Shanahan's system, Lance can read it out, making layered throws to intermediate windows and attacking vertically on scripted deep-ball shots. Plus, with the physical element he brings to the position, expect Shanahan to scheme Lance on designed rushes, where he averaged 6.8 yards per carry in 2019.
The 20-year-old has a steep learning curve in the NFL, but he landed in a stellar spot with San Francisco.
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Round 1, No. 5 (LSU)
Rookie quarterback Joe Burrow completed 73% of his passes -- with a QBR of 90.0 -- on throws inside the numbers last season. Those are the hi-lo concepts, shallows, crossers and seam balls. And with a healthy Burrow back in the mix in 2021, the Bengals can scheme up Chase, who brings a physical, competitive playing style to Cincinnati and easy juice after the catch in the open field.
During his time at LSU, Chase averaged 4.1 yards after contact per reception -- the highest career mark of any Power 5 wide receiver over the past 10 seasons. He's a difference-maker with the ball in his hands who can also be targeted by Burrow on slot fades, deep in-breakers and outside verticals to complement wide receivers Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd in the Bengals' 11 personnel sets.
With A.J. Green no longer in Cincy, Chase could be the most-targeted pass-catcher as a rookie.
Jamin Davis, LB, Washington Football Team
Pick: Round 1, No. 19 (Kentucky)
Davis is an ascending talent, a 6-foot-4, 234-pound linebacker with three-down ability who should see some free access to the ball behind one of the NFL's best defensive fronts in Washington. That will allow him play sideline to sideline, cutting off the ball on edge schemes, while Washington can use his second-level range and coverage skills in sub-package personnel.
Davis, who logged 102 total tackles and three interceptions last season, has the length and short-area speed to muddy throwing windows in the middle of the field. And I expect Washington -- a defense that had a 31.2% blitz rate in 2020 -- to deploy him as a rusher in pressure schemes.
Christian Darrisaw, OT, Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Round 1, No. 23 (Virginia Tech)
I really liked the tape on Darrisaw because of his easy movement skills in both the run and pass game. Watch him reach block or climb on zone schemes, which is an ideal fit for the Minnesota run game with Dalvin Cook. Create an edge for Cook to bounce the ball, or wall off linebackers at the second level to open up daylight on cutback runs. Plus, with his long frame and balance in pass protection, Darrisaw has the skills to mirror in space or drop his anchor against power rushers.
The Vikings got great value here -- they traded back from No. 14 and added extra third-round picks -- and also upgraded the offensive line with a player who fits their offensive identity.
Greg Newsome II, CB, Cleveland Browns
Pick: Round 1, No. 26 (Northwestern)
Last season, Cleveland played Cover 1 (man-free) on 28.1% of its coverage snaps, while also showing Cover 3 (27.6%) and quarters (18.9%) coverages. That's a fit for the versatile Newsome, who has long speed and can match up in both man and zone schemes in the Browns' defensive structure. He's a smooth technician who can play press or pedal/bail to stick in coverage from an off-man position.
That transition speed to drive on the throw pops here, and so does his ability to compete and create on-the-ball production. The Browns could also "lock" Newsome in coverage to backside of 3x1 sets in their single-high and split-field zone coverages given his matchup and scheme versatility. This team has targeted its struggling secondary this offseason, drafting Newsome and bringing in a new safety (John Johnson III) and slot corner (Troy Hill) as starters.
Odafe Oweh, OLB, Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Round 1, No. 31 (Penn State)
Oweh didn't record a sack last season, but I wouldn't be surprised if 6-foot-5, 257 pound outside linebacker leads all rookies in pass-rush production given his explosive traits and the versatile fronts we see in Baltimore. This is a great fit for Oweh, who can be schemed as a rusher to use his high-end bend in a pro defense.
Create the one-on-ones here, use twists/loops to get him open rush lanes and set-up Oweh in the Ravens pressure packages. Last season, Baltimore had a blitz rate of 40.3%, the second highest in the league behind Pittsburgh. This is where Oweh can deployed from various alignments on the defensive front. With Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue both leaving the Ravens in free agency, there are plenty of pass-rushing snaps to fill.
Christian Barmore, DT, New England Patriots
Pick: Round 2, No. 36 (Alabama)
I see alignment versatility with Barmore in the New England defense. He had eight sacks last season, and he can play as a nose, 3-technique defensive tackle or align as a 5-technique end. That fits in a Patriots system that will scheme interior stunts, slants and also create matchup advantages for the 6-foot-4, 310-pounder.
You can see the upfield juice on tape with Barmore here, and he won't play from stagnant alignments with the Patriots, who use titled fronts, overload looks and more. I expect Barmore to create interior disruption versus both the run and pass game in this defense.
Trevon Moehrig, S, Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Round 2, No. 43 (TCU)
With coordinator Gus Bradley now running the defense in Vegas, the Raiders needed a safety with post and split-field range to pair with Johnathan Abram. And I see that with Moehring, who can match to inside verticals from a quarters alignment or drive top-down on in-breakers to create ball production.
Only three defenders with at least 500 coverage snaps over the past two seasons broke up a higher percentage of their plays as the primary defender than Moehrig (25%). That speaks to his fit in Bradley's Cover 3/split-safety scheme, while also pointing to his coverage traits when spinning down over the slot. And with the Raiders releasing veteran Jeff Heath last week, expect Moehrig to play early and often.
Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, Carolina Panthers
Pick: Round 2, No. 59 (LSU)
Paired with Joe Brady, his former college coordinator at LSU, Marshall is a tremendous fit in the Carolina pass game. Marshall had 48 receptions in seven games last season, with 22 of those catches on shallows/crossers. And that's how I expect Brady to scheme him up in the pros. Run the Michael Thomas route tree to work the middle of the field from the slot, and then attack vertically on seams and corners with his 6-foot-2, 205-pound frame.
Marshall should compete for the WR3 role in Carolina, next to DJ Moore and Robby Anderson. There's matchup ability with Marshall inside, plus the catch-and-run traits to produce on defined throws for new starting quarterback Sam Darnold.
Amari Rodgers, WR, Green Bay Packers
Pick: Round 3, No. 85 (Clemson)
Regardless of who is taking the snaps at quarterback for the Packers, Rodgers has the traits to fit as a motion/movement player in Matt LaFleur's system. The Packers used motion on 52% of offensive snaps last season, with 21% of motion coming at the snap. That's where LaFleur can cater to Rodgers' physical style and short-area juice on manufactured touches -- fly sweeps, screens, reverses and backfield touches -- off misdirection given his 5-foot-10, 212-pound frame.
Plus, Rodgers can also be schemed a slot target, with the straight-line speed to threaten defenses vertically, to pair with Davante Adams in the Packers' route tree.
Five value picks who could make an early impact
Azeez Ojulari, OLB, New York Giants
Pick: Round 2, No. 50 (Georgia)
I saw Ojulari as a late Day 1 pick given his quicks off the ball and the ability to bend and close to the quarterback. I believe Ojulari, who had 8.5 sacks against SEC competition last season, has a high ceiling as a pass-rusher, plus the skills to play off contact versus the run game. The fit works here, too, for defensive coordinator Patrick Graham in New York. Run twist stunts with Ojulari and veteran Leonard Williams. Scheme him up in one of the more multiple NFL systems we see on tape.
Andre Cisco, S, Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Round 3, No. 65 (Syracuse)
Cisco is coming off a knee injury, but his ball production is a boost for the Jaguars' defense; he had 13 interceptions in 24 college games. Cisco has easy range from the post, with the ability to track the ball vertically. He can also play as a half-field defender to overlap boundary throws.
The Jags landed a safety with playmaking traits at the top of the third round. That's smart value for a team that has upgraded the secondary through free agency and the draft under new coach Urban Meyer.
Chazz Surratt, LB, Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Round 3, No. 78 (North Carolina)
With veteran linebacker Eric Wilson leaving Minnesota in free agency, Surratt has an opportunity to compete for that weakside linebacker spot next to Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr. The pursuit speed jumps here with Surratt, and so does his ability to match underneath in coverage and close downhill on the ball.
I also like what I see from Surratt as a schemed blitzer. The converted quarterback had 12.5 sacks over his past two seasons at UNC, and the physical traits here are a fit for Mike Zimmer's defense at the second level.
Trey Sermon, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Round 3, No. 88 (Ohio State)
The 49ers will use multiple backs under Shanahan, but Sermon has the upside of a RB1 given his pro running style in a zone-heavy system. Go to Sermon's tape versus Northwestern and Clemson last season. That's where we saw his ability to find daylight, using his one-cut running style on outside zone schemes, plus the contact balance -- which is a critical factor at the position.
Sermon broke 24 tackles and averaged 3.64 yards after first contact last season. The 49ers got solid value here for a back who can handle volume in the pros.
Elijah Molden, DB, Tennessee Titans
Pick: Round 3, No. 100 (Washington)
Molden, who had four interceptions and three forced fumbles two seasons ago, can be a tone-setter in the league. He's a versatile defensive back who has game speed and instincts to find the football, and he can play as a slot corner or safety in a Tennessee defensive scheme that utilizes late movement and disguise. That will allow the Titans to spin Molden post-snap from various alignments as a sub-package defender who can play in space and tackle in the run game.
Five potential Day 3 steals who could overperform
Jordan Smith, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Round 4, No. 121 (UAB)
I watched the tape on Smith early in the draft process because he has the tools to develop into a productive edge rusher. With a long, 6-foot-6 frame, Smith has upside under pro coaching. He needs to develop hand usage/counters and add more upper-body strength. The Jags are betting on the ceiling with Smith, and I would do the same for a team that needs more pass-rush production off the edge.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Round 5, No. 150 (Memphis)
Gainwell is a dual-threat running back who can be deployed like Austin Ekeler in the Eagles' system. Gainwell caught 51 passes for 651 yards in 2019 before he opted out of last season. He's a patient route runner who can release from the backfield or flex outside to run crossers, corners and fades.
The Eagles signed Kerryon Johnson after the draft, but that shouldn't affect Gainwell's role in Philly. New coach Nick Sirianni can use two-back personnel with both Gainwell and Miles Sanders on the field at the same time to create schematic advantages in the game plan.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Round 5, No. 157 (Iowa)
Smith-Marsette brings a vertical element to the Vikings' play-action pass game on deep overs, crossers and go balls. He produced 24 explosive-play receptions during his college career (receptions of 20 or more yards), and you can see the straight-line speed on tape. In Minnesota, Smith-Marsette should be in a position to compete for the WR3 role opposite Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.
Plus, with his kick-return ability, Smith-Marsette brings some juice to the Vikings' special teams as well.
Hamsah Nasirildeen, S/LB, New York Jets
Pick: Round 6, No. 186 (Florida State)
The 6-foot-3 Nasirildeen has the physical traits to find a role in Robert Saleh's defense as a hybrid linebacker/sub-package defender. I see "forward ability" on the tape with Nasirildeen -- he drops to depth and explodes downhill on the ball. That fits today's game with rangy, dime/nickel defenders who can play in space. Nasirildeen also has the speed to develop quickly as a special-teams coverage player in New York.
Trey Smith, G, Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Round 6, No. 226 (Tennessee)
The Chiefs added offensive line depth and a potential future starter with Smith late in the sixth round. At 6-foot-6, 321 pounds, he is a mauler in the run game, a blocker who can move defenders off the ball -- and finish them. Plus, with enough movement ability and strength/power to win in pass pro, Smith can develop into an interior presence to keep the pocket clean for quarterback Patrick Mahomes.