Sam Darnold has been traded to the Carolina Panthers. The New York Jets dealt the 23-year-old quarterback on Monday for a sixth-round pick in the the 2021 NFL draft and second- and fourth-round picks in 2022.
Darnold started 38 games for the Jets since he was picked No. 3 overall in the the 2018 draft, completing 59.8% of his passes while throwing 45 touchdown passes and 39 interceptions. New York had a 13-25 record in games in which he started. His 40.1 Total QBR last season ranked last in the league. The Jets have the No. 2 overall pick in this month's draft and appear set to take a quarterback. ESPN NFL draft analyst Todd McShay projected them to take BYU's Zach Wilson in his latest two-round mock draft. Wilson is McShay's second-ranked quarterback in the class, while draft analyst Mel Kiper has Ohio State's Justin Fields as his No. 2 quarterback.
We asked our panel of ESPN NFL experts to weigh in on the Jets-Panthers trade, what to make of Darnold's fit in Carolina and where Teddy Bridgewater -- who started for the Panthers in 2020 -- could land next:
What's your gut reaction to the trade?
Mike Clay, NFL analyst: It's a sensible move for the Jets, who will almost certainly select a quarterback with the No. 2 pick. It's also understandable for the Panthers. Darnold has not played well through three seasons, but he was in a poor situation and is only 23 years old. The Panthers wanted an upgrade at quarterback and now they have some hope.
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: This feels like an uninspired move by Carolina, but it didn't have many options. The franchise made no secret that it wanted to trade for Matthew Stafford and Deshaun Watson, and getting the right QB at No. 8 overall was hardly a slam dunk. The Jets got about as much as they could from the deal. If Philly couldn't get a guaranteed first-rounder for Carson Wentz, the Jets weren't getting a first for Darnold, who has averaged below 46.0 in QBR in each of his three NFL seasons.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: The Jets did all right here, considering they had to trade Darnold. They were telling teams they could keep him even if they drafted Wilson, but that was likely just tough talk, as it would have created a sticky situation for both QBs and the new coaching staff. Getting a second-round pick is solid, and the fact that it's a 2022 pick doesn't matter. They already have 10 picks in this year's draft!
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Yawn. It has been clear for some time that the Jets were moving on. They did OK given that context, but it's a long time to wait for that 2022 second-rounder. It's hard to view the deal as anything more than a potential incremental upgrade for the Panthers, though. By most statistical measures, including QBR, Darnold has been one of the NFL's worst quarterbacks since 2018. Maybe he gets better with Carolina coach Matt Rhule, but three seasons is usually long enough to find out whether a potential superstar is budding.
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: This was a significant overpay by Carolina. The Panthers are committing both draft picks and financial resources -- they're reportedly picking up his fifth-year option -- to a quarterback who played poorly last season ... and the season before that ... and the season before that.
What's your grade for the trade from the Panthers' perspective?
Clay: C+. On one hand, Darnold has not done enough in three seasons to warrant this compensation. On the other, Carolina is clearly betting that he's not a finished product at age 23 and that he can succeed away from the Adam Gase offense. The Panthers were clearly desperate for an upgrade and weren't assured of getting one on draft day, so, even though risky, this move gives them hope at the position in both the short and long term.
Fowler: C+. Fixing Darnold's penchant for drive-killing interceptions is hardly a slam dunk. You could argue incumbent Teddy Bridgewater is more reliable. But Darnold's upside is obvious, and offensive coordinator Joe Brady can utilize his athleticism with play-action, throws on the move and a steady running game with Christian McCaffrey. Now, Carolina can use the eighth overall pick to get the best player available.
Graziano: B-. This is a lot of picks to give up for a guy with a lot more bad than good on his NFL résumé. But Darnold is six months younger than Joe Burrow, who played for Carolina offensive coordinator Joe Brady at LSU, and still could have his best football in front of him. It's worth taking a shot to see if Brady can unlock something. And even if they exercise Darnold's 2022 option, they're still getting him for a tick under $24 million total for the next two years. That's peanuts if he can be their starter and deliver even average performance.
Seifert: C-. I won't claim that Bridgewater deserved to come back as the unquestioned starter. But if your plan for the next two seasons is to start Darnold -- quarterback who ranked No. 35 in QBR over the past three seasons -- then, well, I don't know how excited I can be about that.
Walder: D. While it's true that Darnold was in a terrible situation with the Jets, the Panthers are still betting on the quarterback who finished last in QBR last season. I would not have committed a second-round pick (and then some!) to that bet, I would not commit his 2022 salary to that bet, and I certainly would not have done all that before the draft -- when it's possible a quarterback could fall to the No. 8 pick.
What's your grade for the trade from the Jets' perspective?
Clay: A-. It's tempting to dock the Jets for turning the 2018 third-overall pick into one Day 2 and two Day 3 picks, but that has sunk cost fallacy written all over it. In the here and now, the Jets have a different general manager, coaching staff and scheme than they did in 2018, and they'll also have a new QB when they select Wilson with the second overall pick later this month. Perhaps Darnold will shine elsewhere, but they feel Wilson is the better prospect and so swapping the incumbent for assets is the right move.
Fowler: B+. Getting three picks is a decent haul. Even though the Jets actually discussed keeping Darnold and drafting a quarterback No. 2 overall, that would have unnecessarily complicated matters. Take WIlson and don't look back. At some point, though, GM Joe Douglas must turn this massive rebuild into a winner. Continuing to flip former first-rounders for assets year after year is not sustainable. Douglas' strength is drafting, and he has 21 picks in the next two years to remodel the Jets.
Graziano: B+. It's tough to trade up to take a guy No. 3 overall and then three years later you can't do better than a second-rounder and a couple of late-rounders for him. But given where the market seemed to be for Darnold -- and given the fact that everyone knew they had to trade him -- getting anything more than a third-rounder has to be considered decent work.
Seifert: B. If you can squeeze three draft picks out of a quarterback that everyone knows you're trading, and one of them is a second-round pick, that's decent enough. It reflects awfully on the franchise -- they either botched the pick or submarined Darnold's career by, well, being the Jets -- but it was time to cut ties before he lost all value.
Walder: A. Given the circumstances of Darnold's underperformance and the Jets sitting in a situation where they'll land another quarterback in the draft, this is as much as they could have gotten for him. Actually, it's more than I would have thought they could have gotten for him.
What happens now for Teddy Bridgewater? Where could he land?
Clay: Bridgewater was not horrific in 2020. He averaged 7.6 yards per attempt, had 20 total touchdowns and just 11 interceptions and and his 69% completion percentage was fifth-best in the league. Carolina still wanted an upgrade -- and that's understandable -- but Bridgewater is, at least, a good backup. A team with a good overall roster but uncertainty at quarterback should be interested. The Broncos (Drew Lock) come to mind and perhaps the Patriots (31-year-old Cam Newton on a one-year deal) or Saints (post-Drew Brees reunion) could be in the mix. I suspect a Day 3 pick would be the compensation.
Fowler: The Broncos would be a prime spot for Deshaun Watson, who's intrigued by Denver's offensive playmakers. But that situation is too murky to figure out right now, and Bridgewater would be the perfect veteran to push Lock without supplanting him. New Denver general manager George Paton helped draft Bridgewater to Minnesota in 2014. He knows Bridgewater's strengths and limitations.
Graziano: Bridgewater has $10 million of his $17 million 2021 salary fully guaranteed. I'm not sure which team would take that on right now, and it doesn't make sense to cut him and have to pay that. Honestly, the Panthers should keep him. Who's to say he doesn't beat out Darnold for the job in camp? Having both on the roster this season would cost the Panthers a total of $22-$23 million, which is a totally reasonable amount of money to spend on that position and only $7 million more than they'd be paying them both if they cut Bridgewater.
Seifert: They'll struggle to get much, if anything, in a trade. I know it sounds crazy, but to me the Saints are the best place for Bridgewater. He was great as their backup and any quarterback should jump at the chance to play for Sean Payton. And to put it politely, there's room for him in the competition the Saints are setting up between Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill to replace Brees.
Walder: He makes sense in Denver, but if I were the Broncos, I'd only make that deal (for a late-round pick) if I struck out on quarterbacks in the draft. The tricky thing here for Carolina is that if no one wants Bridgewater's $17 million salary, and you only save $7 million by cutting him, it might be best to just keep him. Because he's probably still your best quarterback ... which goes back to why this trade is problematic in the first place.