Of all the things we thought might shake up the NFL playoff picture, a victory by the previously winless Jets wasn't high on the list. But that's exactly what happened Sunday, and it's enough to check in right away with this update of the league's playoff race.
The Jets' 23-20 win over the Rams shook up the NFC West. When the dust settled, the Seahawks were atop the division and in position to clinch it as early as next weekend.
Here are the full postseason outlook and clinching scenarios that lie ahead, along with analysis from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), including the ramifications of the Steelers' upset loss Monday night in Cincinnati.
Note: X denotes a team that has clinched a playoff berth, Y shows a team that has clinched its division and Z indicates a team that has secured a first-round bye.
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) -- Y
FPI chances to make playoffs: Clinched
FPI chances to win division: Clinched
The Chiefs won a physical game in New Orleans, adding to their case as the top team in football. But Buffalo's win on Saturday at Denver meant the Chiefs wouldn't be able to clinch home-field advantage in the AFC this weekend regardless of how their own game went. However, FPI considers it just a matter of time, and it could happen in Week 16 if they defeat the Falcons and the Steelers lose (in either Week 15 or 16). The Chiefs are holding a 96% chance to finish the season atop the conference.
Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons, vs. Chargers
2. Buffalo Bills (11-3) -- Y
FPI chances to make playoffs: Clinched
FPI chances to win division: Clinched
Saturday's victory in Denver did the trick for the Bills, who are now AFC East champions for the first time since Jim Kelly was their starting quarterback. Now the question is whether they can overtake the Steelers and Chiefs for the top spot in the conference. The short version: It's highly unlikely. They have a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Steelers, whose loss Monday night moved the Bills up to the No. 2 spot in the conference. They don't have a tiebreaker against the Chiefs, whom they lost to in Week 6. Regardless, the Bills will be a very difficult out in the playoffs. They have won seven of their past eight games, losing only when the Cardinals connected on a Hail Mary in Week 10.
Remaining schedule: at Patriots, vs. Dolphins
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3) -- X
FPI chances to make playoffs: Clinched
FPI chances to win division: 89.3%
Monday night's stunning loss was the Steelers' third in a row, and it cost them a chance to clinch the AFC North title. They'll have another opportunity in Week 16 against the Colts. If they lose that game, however, and the Browns beat the Jets, things will get interesting. It would make the Week 17 game between the Steelers and Browns a division championship game -- winner take all. At this point, FPI sees only a 10% chance of that scenario actually happening, but FPI didn't see the Steelers sleepwalking through much of Monday's game, either.
Remaining schedule: vs. Colts, at Browns
4. Tennessee Titans (10-4)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 98%
FPI chances to win division: 60.5%
The Titans maintained their hold on first place in the AFC South by dispatching the Lions and notching their first 10-win season in 12 years. The bad news now is that they face a more difficult task in Week 16, when they'll play at the Green Bay. The good news is that the Colts, whom they are trying to hold off for the division title, have a similarly tough task at Pittsburgh.
The Titans could clinch the division next week if they beat the Packers and the Colts lose to the Steelers; and overall, FPI is giving Tennessee a 61.9% chance to win the division by the end of Week 17.
Remaining schedule: at Packers, at Texans
5. Cleveland Browns (10-4)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 90.1%
FPI chances to win division: 10.7%
The Browns needed a victory Sunday night over the Giants to avoid falling out of a playoff picture they've been in the middle of throughout the second half of the season. And that's exactly what they got, giving them a 10-plus win season for only the third time since the franchise resumed play in Cleveland in 1999. They could clinch in Week 16 with a win over the Jets and losses by either the Ravens, Colts or Dolphins. And now they'll be keeping an eye on the Steelers' matchup against the Colts. If the Steelers lose that game, the Browns would win the AFC North if they beat the Steelers in Week 17.
Remaining schedule: at Jets, vs. Steelers
6. Indianapolis Colts (10-4)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 90.6%
FPI chances to win division: 39.5%
The Colts might not be able to catch the Titans -- who are holding a division-record tiebreaker over them -- but they are stacking wins in a way that will make them a scary playoff opponent, whether it's as a division winner or a wild-card team. Sunday's win over the Texans means the Colts have won three consecutive games and five of their past six. That momentum will be tested in Week 16 at Pittsburgh. They could clinch with a win and a loss by either the Ravens or Dolphins.
For what it's worth, FPI is giving the Colts a 38.1% chance to win the AFC South.
Remaining schedule: at Steelers, vs. Jaguars
7. Miami Dolphins (9-5)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 35.8%
FPI chances to win division: Eliminated
Sunday's victory over the Patriots guaranteed the Dolphins' second winning season in the past 12 years. It also allowed them to hold off the surging Ravens in the wild-card race; Miami is ahead at the moment because of a half-game lead in the conference-record tiebreaker.
The Dolphins finish the season with two road games, although it appears they will get the Raiders at a good time, and it's possible the Bills will have nothing to play for in Week 17. Regardless, FPI doesn't like Miami's chances of holding off the Ravens and is putting the Fins' playoff chances at 34.3%.
Remaining schedule: at Raiders, at Bills
Also in the AFC mix
Baltimore Ravens (9-5): Three consecutive victories have the Ravens pushing hard against the Dolphins and in position to capitalize on any collapse by the Browns, Titans and/or Colts. FPI is giving the Ravens an 84.6% chance of finding a way to the playoffs.
Las Vegas Raiders (7-7): The Raiders' chances to make the playoffs all but disappeared on Thursday night after a ridiculous overtime loss to the Chargers. Las Vegas' FPI chances are now 0.9%.
NFC
1. Green Bay Packers (11-3) -- Y
FPI chances to make playoffs: Clinched
FPI chances to win division: Clinched
The Packers put some additional distance between themselves and the Saints. The first part of that process occurred Saturday night, when the Packers controlled the Panthers at Lambeau Field, and the second part happened Sunday when the Saints lost to the Chiefs.
The Packers can't clinch the No. 1 spot in the NFC if the Saints lose, but they could have a chance to do it as early as Week 16 with a win and a Seahawks loss. FPI gives them an 84.2% chance to lock it up.
Remaining schedule: vs. Titans, at Bears
2. New Orleans Saints (10-4) -- X
FPI chances to make playoffs: Clinched
FPI chances to win division: 95.6%
The Saints had several avenues for clinching the NFC South this weekend, but none of them materialized. They needed either a win on Sunday over the Chiefs, a loss by the Buccaneers to the Falcons or for both games to end in a tie. But the Saints could still clinch the division as early as Friday if they beat the Vikings in a Christmas Day game.
Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings, at Panthers
3. Seattle Seahawks (10-4) -- X
FPI chances to make playoffs: Clinched
FPI chances to win division: 60.3%
What an unexpected surprise Sunday brought for the Seahawks! They're back in first place in the NFC West, courtesy of the Rams' stunning home loss to the Jets in addition to Seattle's own victory at Washington. Seattle has clinched at least a playoff spot and can secure the division title by beating the Rams at home in Week 16.
Remaining schedule: vs. Rams, at 49ers
4. Washington Football Team (6-8)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 73.3%
FPI chances to win division: 73.3%
Washington made a game of it at home against the Seahawks, coming back from a 20-3 deficit to finish within one score. The Giants helped lessen the blow by losing Sunday night to the Browns, ensuring Washington would remain atop the NFC East for another week. One certain consequence of Sunday's game is it ensured the eventual division winner won't have a winning record. Washington can clinch it with a win and a Giants loss in Week 16.
Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers, at Eagles
5. Los Angeles Rams (9-5)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 98.1%
FPI chances to win division: 39.7%
What a disastrous day Sunday turned out to be for the Rams. To clinch a playoff spot, all they had to do was beat -- or tie! -- the winless Jets at home. Instead, they lost, and the Rams now trail the Seahawks in the NFC West. The two teams face each other in Week 16, and the Seahawks can now clinch the division with a victory.
Still, the Rams are near locks for a postseason spot. The only way they won't make it is if they lose their last two games, the Bears win their last two games, the Buccaneers win one of their last two games and the Cardinals lose to the 49ers in Week 16.
Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, vs. Cardinals
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 99.1%
FPI chances to win division: 4.4%
The Buccaneers' big comeback in Atlanta kept them squarely in the wild-card race, but they missed out on clinching a playoff spot because of the Bears' win in Minnesota. That could still happen next week with a win or a Bears loss. And while they haven't been eliminated from the NFC South race, the Bucs are still essentially two games behind the Saints because of the head-to-head tiebreaker. However, Tampa Bay has two very winnable games to finish the season.
Remaining schedule: at Lions, vs. Falcons
7. Arizona Cardinals (8-6)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 65.8%
FPI chances to win division: Eliminated
The Cardinals have now won two consecutive games after losing four of their previous five. They have been eliminated from the NFC West race, but they are hanging tough for a wild-card spot. If they had lost Sunday to the Eagles, the Cardinals would have flipped spots with the Bears. That's how close the race is at this point. They could clinch a playoff spot in Week 16 with a win and a Bears loss.
Remaining schedule: vs. 49ers, at Rams
Also in the NFC mix
Chicago Bears (7-7): After defeating the Vikings in Minnesota, the Bears put themselves in the best position to pick off the Cardinals if they falter down the stretch. FPI gives them a 33% chance.
Minnesota Vikings (6-8): The Vikings aren't eliminated yet, but their loss on Sunday to the Bears means it will take a near miracle to advance.
New York Giants (5-9): It won't get any easier for the Giants to catch Washington in Week 16, when they'll face the resurgent Ravens.
Dallas Cowboys (5-9): If you're in the NFC East, you're in the running for the playoffs. That's the best we can say about the Cowboys right now.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-9-1): The Eagles aren't eliminated yet, and they have plenty to celebrate with the emergence of quarterback Jalen Hurts. But their chances to win the NFC East are bleak.