Week 14 brought major changes at the top of both conferences as the NFL's playoff race enters its final stretch. The Chiefs replaced the Steelers atop the AFC, while the Packers overtook the Saints for the No. 1 spot in the NFC. The Chiefs and Packers also clinched their division titles, have favorable paths to earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and were the big winners of Week 14. The Steelers, it should be noted, clinched a playoff spot, too, despite their second consecutive loss.
All told, however, only four of the NFL's 14 playoff spots are accounted for. There's plenty left to be determined. Let's take a closer look at where the NFL playoff picture stands, using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to provide context where necessary.
Note: X denotes a team that has clinched a playoff berth, Y shows a team that has clinched its division and Z indicates a team that has secured a first-round bye.
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) -- Y
FPI chances to make playoffs: Clinched
FPI chances to win division: Clinched
FPI chances to receive a bye: 92.6%
After holding on for a win over the Dolphins, the Chiefs secured their fifth consecutive AFC West title. Then they watched the Steelers lose on Sunday night to the Bills, pushing them to the top spot in the conference. Although they have a tough matchup in Week 15 against the Saints, FPI considers the Chiefs the heavy favorite to hold on to the No. 1 seed and eventually clinch it. They can do it as early as Week 15 with a win, plus losses by the Steelers and Bills.
Remaining schedule: at Saints, vs. Falcons, vs. Chargers
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2) -- X
FPI chances to make playoffs: Clinched
FPI chances to win division: 99.0%
FPI chances to receive a bye: 6.9%
The good news is the Steelers are in the playoffs. They clinched a spot despite Sunday's loss, thanks to losses by the Dolphins and Raiders. But they have lost two consecutive games and were fortunate that the Browns lost Monday night to the Ravens. FPI still favors the Steelers heavily to win the division -- they can clinch with a win in Week 15 or a Browns loss -- but they're suddenly big underdogs to win home-field advantage.
Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Colts, at Browns
3. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 99.8%
FPI chances to win division: 98.8%
The Bills needed five games to fall the right way for them to clinch a playoff berth in Week 14. Only four of them did. They defeated the Steelers on Sunday night, of course. They also got losses by the Dolphins, Raiders and Patriots. But the Browns' loss Monday night to the Ravens prevented Buffalo from clinching.
Regardless, the Bills remain the heavy favorites to win the AFC East, having won six of their past seven games. They can clinch as early as Week 15 with a win or a Dolphins loss.
Remaining schedule: at Broncos, at Patriots vs. Dolphins
4. Tennessee Titans (9-4)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 92.9%
FPI chances to win division: 62.1%
The Titans' victory over the Jaguars allowed them to maintain a lead in the AFC South. They'll remain on pace to have a rematch against the Browns (Cleveland beat Tennessee 41-35 last week) in the first round of the playoffs. Although the Colts remain hot, having won four of their past five games, FPI is giving the Titans a roughly 3-in-5 chance of winning the AFC South.
Remaining schedule: vs. Lions, at Packers, at Texans
5. Cleveland Browns (9-4)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 82.2%
FPI chances to win division: 1.0%
Oh man. The truth is that the Browns' wild loss Monday night didn't hurt their playoff chances nearly as much as it helped the Ravens. It didn't even cost the Browns their position at No. 5 in the conference. Barring a total collapse over their final three games, the Browns are going to the playoffs. If anything, they got some genuine practice for what a playoff game will be like after so long away. Now, they'll play the two New York teams in consecutive weeks.
Remaining schedule: at Giants, at Jets, vs. Steelers
6. Indianapolis Colts (9-4)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 84.5%
FPI chances to win division: 37.9%
The Colts looked dominant on Sunday in a win over the Raiders, but they knew heading into the week that they were unlikely to gain ground on the Titans in the AFC South. (The Titans were heavy favorites to beat the Jaguars.) For that reason, FPI continues to give them a relatively small chance (about 1-in-3) to win the division. The Colts are going to the playoffs, barring a complete collapse over a manageable conclusion to their regular-season schedule, but it's very likely to be as a wild-card team. They remain at No. 6 even after the Browns' loss on Monday night because of the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Remaining schedule: vs. Texans, at Steelers, vs. Jaguars
7. Miami Dolphins (8-5)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 30.9%
FPI chances to win division: 1.2%
There's no shame in losing a close game to the Chiefs, as the Dolphins did Sunday. But it was a mostly expected start of a brutal stretch of the Dolphins' schedule, one that might keep them from the playoffs. The segment is so difficult that FPI sees less than a 1-in-3 chance of them making the playoffs. After hosting the Patriots in Week 15, they will finish the season at the Raiders and at the Bills. As we've been saying for some time, if the Dolphins make the playoffs, they will have earned it.
Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, at Raiders, at Bills
Also in the AFC mix
Baltimore Ravens (8-5): Their win Monday night was pivotal for the Ravens, whose postseason FPI chances would have fallen to 37.9% with a loss. Instead, they are very much in the thick of the race with an 86.0% chance to make it, according to FPI.
Las Vegas Raiders (7-6): Were it not for a miracle win over the Jets in Week 13, the Raiders would be in the midst of a four-game losing streak. FPI is giving them a 20.4% chance to make the playoffs.
New England Patriots (6-7): They're not eliminated yet, even if FPI is giving them only a 3.3% chance to make the playoffs.
NFC
1. Green Bay Packers (10-3) -- Y
FPI chances to make playoffs: Clinched
FPI chances to win division: Clinched
FPI chances to receive a bye: 59.0%
The Packers made quite a move in the NFC standings on Sunday afternoon. Their win in Detroit, combined with the Vikings' loss in Tampa, clinched their second consecutive NFC North championship. And because the Saints unexpectedly lost in Philadelphia, the Packers leapfrogged them into the top position in the conference.
They hold the head-to-head tiebreaker because of their Week 3 victory in New Orleans, and FPI essentially considers them a 2-1 favorite to stay there and clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs in the coming weeks.
Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers, vs. Titans, at Bears
2. New Orleans Saints (10-3) -- X
FPI chances to make playoffs: Clinched
FPI chances to win division: 98.4%
FPI chances to receive a bye: 29.5%
The Saints made it a game in Philadelphia after falling behind 17-0, but they ultimately suffered what could be a crucial blow in their hopes of clinching the NFC's top seed. They also failed to clinch the NFC South, which would have happened if they had won or if the Buccaneers had lost at home to the Vikings. They can do it in Week 15 with a win or a Buccaneers loss. Regardless, it now gets tricky. While the Packers are hosting the 4-9 Panthers in Week 15, the Saints will be hosting the 12-1 Chiefs.
Remaining schedule: vs. Chiefs, vs. Vikings, at Panthers
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 99.9%
FPI chances to win division: 66.9%
The Rams' easy win on Thursday night over the Patriots kept them a step ahead of the Seahawks in the race for the NFC West title, and FPI now sees them as a 66.9% favorite to win the division. No matter what else happens, the Rams can clinch the division with wins in their next two games. They'll first need to dispatch a winless Jets team at home, but then they'll travel to Seattle with a chance to complete a season sweep. That would clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker with one week remaining in the regular season. The Rams can clinch a playoff spot with a win in Week 15.
Remaining schedule: vs. Jets, at Seahawks, vs. Cardinals
4. Washington Football Team (6-7)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 69.0%
FPI chances to win division: 68.7%
Is Week 14 the moment when the NFC East found its winner? After defeating the 49ers hours after the Giants lost at home to the Cardinals, Washington is the only team in the division that resembles a playoff outfit. It has won four consecutive games, and its plus-12 point differential makes Washington the only division participant that hasn't been outscored for the season.
Washington faces a difficult game in Week 15 against the Seahawks, and victories Sunday by the Cowboys and Eagles kept things semi-tight. Quarterback Alex Smith's calf injury is concerning, too, but at the moment, FPI considers Washington a strong favorite to clinch the division later this month.
Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks, vs. Panthers, at Eagles
5. Seattle Seahawks (9-4)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 99.1%
FPI chances to win division: 31.7%
The Seahawks received the gift of a game against the Jets in Week 14, but now that gift will shift to the Rams next week. The Seahawks have a much more difficult task; they're facing a cross-country trip to play a surging Washington team. Unless the Rams somehow lose to the Jets, the Seahawks' hopes to win the NFC West will rest on the teams' Week 16 showdown in Seattle. FPI doesn't love their chances for that, but the Seahawks can at least secure a playoff spot in Week 15 with a win.
Remaining schedule: at Washington, vs. Rams, at 49ers
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 97.0%
FPI chances to win division: 1.6%
The Buccaneers emerged from a bye with enough of their act together to hold off the Vikings at home. The victory ensured their first non-losing season in four years and further made a case for their first postseason appearance since 2007.
The Saints' loss in Philadelphia makes things a little more interesting in the NFC South, but remember that the Buccaneers would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker between the teams. FPI is giving them only a tiny chance to pull it off. Regardless, the Bucs' schedule is more than friendly the rest of the way.
Remaining schedule: at Falcons, at Lions, vs. Falcons
7. Arizona Cardinals (7-6)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 56.2%
FPI chances to win division: 1.4%
The Cardinals climbed back into playoff position by snapping their three-game losing streak against the Giants. It has been difficult this season to project a team based on its performance against an NFC East team, but the Cardinals got back to the fundamentals of what makes them a playoff contender. Quarterback Kyler Murray and receiver DeAndre Hopkins connected for 136 passing yards, and the defense harassed Giants quarterbacks all afternoon -- most notably via five sacks by linebacker Haason Reddick. The Cards are looking pretty solid for their first playoff appearance in five seasons.
Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, vs. 49ers, at Rams
Also in the NFC mix
Minnesota Vikings (6-7): Sunday was the Vikings' chance to cement their playoff chances. But after losing to the Buccaneers, they'll likely need to win their final three games -- including a Week 16 matchup in New Orleans -- to make it. FPI says they have a 21.2% chance to finish with a berth.
Chicago Bears (6-7): More people are talking about the future of the Bears' leadership team and quarterback. But the Bears could be in the No. 7 spot by the end of Week 15 if they beat the Vikings and the Cardinals lose to the Eagles.
New York Giants (5-8): The Giants are in position if Washington falters, but they have a tough two-game stretch coming against the Browns and Ravens.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1): If the Eagles come back to win the division, they will have earned it. They're facing consecutive road games against the Cardinals and Cowboys, followed by a home game against Washington in Week 17.