Week 12 of the 2020 NFL schedule features three games on Thanksgiving Day, capped by a showdown between AFC North rivals Baltimore (6-4) and Pittsburgh (10-0) at Heinz Field.
The holiday weekend continues on Sunday with several intriguing matchups, including the interconference showdown between Kansas City (9-1) and Tampa Bay (7-4) at Raymond James Stadium and Round 2 between Tennessee (7-3) and Indianapolis (7-3) for AFC South supremacy, this time at Lucas Oil Stadium.
We asked our experts to pick between the Titans and Colts, as well as the biggest potential upsets, fantasy football flops and sleepers, and what football fans should be most thankful for in this strange year.
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What's your top upset pick for Week 12?
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Panthers (+4) over Vikings. The Minnesota run game with Dalvin Cook makes this pick a little shaky, but I'm going with the scheme of Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady here. Look for Brady to set up quarterback Teddy Bridgewater with high-percentage throws versus the Vikings' split-safety coverages.
Jason Reid, The Undefeated senior NFL writer: Washington (+3.0) over the Cowboys. Don't be surprised if Washington's talented defensive line has its best outing of the season because, well, the Cowboys' offensive front simply isn't what it once was. A big performance from rookie defensive end Chase Young, the second overall pick, could help Washington earn its fourth victory and move into first place in the disappointing -- to say the least -- NFC East.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Buccaneers (+3.5) over Chiefs. If there is any team that can win a shootout, it's the Buccaneers. They've scored at least 30 points six times and more than 40 points twice. Free advice: Take the over.
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Broncos (+6) over Saints. Overall, Taysom Hill was solid in his starting debut against a weak Falcons defense, but he had a couple of ugly passes that didn't cost him and it's not always going to work out that way. Hill is still largely an unknown as a full-time quarterback, which means there's a lot variance there -- and that's good for an underdog.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Washington (+3.0) over the Cowboys. The Washington defensive front is the strength of that team, and while the Cowboys' offensive line performed better coming out of its bye in its Week 11 tilt against the Vikings, I expect Washington to control the line of scrimmage. With a win, it could catapult to first place in the NFC East.
It's the 7-3 Titans vs. the 7-3 Colts on Sunday. Who's your pick to win the AFC South?
Bowen: Colts. I'll take the Colts' team speed and disruptive traits on defense here, plus the ability of Philip Rivers to throw consistently as a dropback passer. That separates Indy from Tennessee.
Reid: Colts. For most of the season, the solid Colts lacked a signature victory. Then they produced two in the past two weeks, defeating the Titans and NFC North-leading Green Bay. The Colts really get after it on defense, and quarterback Philip Rivers appears to be developing something special with rookie wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr.
Seifert: Titans. I realize it can't be quantified, but the Titans have proved to be one of the most competitive top teams in the league. They won their first three games by a total of six points and have since won twice in overtime. They're prepared for a division fight over the final weeks of the season.
Walder: Titans. Whew, it's close, but I'm inclined to lean offense over defense. And specifically passing offense: Tennessee ranks third in EPA (expected points added) per pass play. Which is also why I think the Titans have more room to grow, too: They're a run-heavy team but that already-efficient offense would probably be even better with the ball in QB Ryan Tannehill's hands more often.
Yates: Colts. I'll concede that I've flip-flopped on this question a couple of times, which is a sign of just how competitive this division race will remain for the rest of the season. Indy has an exceptional and explosive defense, while the Titans' freight train running game is a nightmare for most defenses to handle. With the Colts at home this weekend, I think Indy will secure the season sweep and thus put itself on the inside track of the division.
Who is the under-the-radar player you think is going to break out down the stretch of the season?
Bowen: Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts. The rookie from USC is already starting to heat up, catching 14 of 18 targets for 223 yards over the past three weeks. With consistent volume -- in a Colts offense that caters to both his physical style and run-after-the-catch traits -- Pittman will play a key role for a team making a push to win the AFC South.
Reid: Le'Veon Bell, RB, Chiefs. I acknowledge I'm taking a bit of liberty in including a two-time first-team All-Pro in the "under the radar" category, but indulge me for a moment. After his disastrous tenure with the New York Jets, Bell has started slowly since being acquired by the Chiefs, having only 28 touches (23 rushes, five receptions) in his first three games. But Bell scored a go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter of the Chiefs' victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. He has the type of smarts and experience that coach Andy Reid could put to good use as the Chiefs pursue the No. 1 overall seeding in the AFC.
Seifert: Daniel Jones, QB, Giants. With his team in legitimate position to win the NFC North, all Jones needs to do is cut his turnovers in half. (He ranks second in the NFL with 13.) He doesn't need to be perfect. But if he can be more careful, and less of a drain on the rest of the Giants' operation, he can emerge as a division-winning quarterback.
Walder: Darious Williams, CB, Rams. This is sort of cheating because he's really mid-breakout already, but Williams fits the under-the-radar moniker and has been putting up impressive numbers. Among outside corners, Williams ranks fourth best in completion percentage over expectation allowed at -8.4%. His elite teammate, Jalen Ramsey, is just ahead of him at -8.5%.
Yates: Julian Blackmon, S, Colts. The raw stats from Blackmon might not jump off the page (23 tackles, two interceptions, one forced fumble), but the impact is too good to ignore from this rookie safety. Blackmon has been an essential piece for a defense that has been one of the league's very best, stepping into a full-time role early in the year and making impact plays all over the field. It's time we all catch up on just how legit Blackmon is, as he looks like yet another star draft pick from general manager Chris Ballard.
In honor of Thanksgiving week, NFL fans should be thankful for _________ this year.
Bowen: The competitiveness of the league in 2020. With no clear front-runner in the NFC, and a battle for the AFC wild-card spots, the door is open here for multiple teams to make a push for the playoffs. And with an extra team making the postseason tournament this year, we could see some upsets in January.
Reid: The fact Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are still going strong and the position is in good hands behind them. In a quarterback league, there's nothing more important than quarterback play, and Brady and Rodgers continue to display the art of playing the position better than most have in the game's history. With Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, among others, thriving, the league is in great shape where it matters most.
Seifert: Money. Not to be crass, but the NFL season wouldn't have made it this far without the backing of owners who were willing to invest tens of millions of dollars toward a pandemic response to save billions of dollars in revenue. Much of American life has been disrupted because citizens don't have access to the daily coronavirus tests, electronic data trackers and premium medical staffs that NFL players and coaches do.
Walder: A trio of exciting rookie quarterbacks. The league is more fun when there's more talent under center, and Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow -- despite his injury -- all are showing promise for the future. Plus, they'll provide plenty of material for best-in-class debates that could rival the Carson Wentz vs. Dak Prescott vs. Jared Goff arguments of yore.
Yates: The diligence of NFL players, coaches, staffers and medical experts. It took a massive effort to get this season up and running -- and will continue to take a massive effort to finish this season -- and I am exceedingly thankful for all of those involved. The football season is a rigorous one under normal circumstances, but players, coaches, front-office personnel, medical experts and all involved are showing a level of determination and discipline that should be applauded. Having the opportunity to watch football each Sunday this fall has been special.
Who's a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 12?
Bowen: Rashard Higgins, WR, Browns. In a positive matchup versus the Jaguars' single-high coverage schemes, you can roll the dice here on Higgins as a WR3 in deeper leagues. The Browns wide receiver has caught six of eight targets in his past two games, and he will have opportunities on schemed play-action throws from quarterback Baker Mayfield in this one.
Reid: Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts. In recent weeks, the rookie has made a move. Don't sleep on him.
Seifert: Adrian Peterson, RB, Lions. The visiting Texans enter Week 12 allowing an NFL-high 159.3 rushing yards per game. Peterson will get plenty of chances in this one.
Walder: Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. It's a tough matchup against a great defense in the Steelers, but after Baltimore's top two running backs -- Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins -- tested positive for COVID-19, Edwards figures to get plenty of work on Thanksgiving.
Yates: Derek Carr, QB, Raiders. Coming off yet another solid outing in Week 11, Carr now has four games with at least 20 fantasy points this season. I suspect he'll continue to stand tall for the Raiders on the road against the Falcons, whose secondary remains a work in progress.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this week?
Bowen: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Broncos. Jeudy has seen at least eight targets in each of his past four games. However, given the inconsistent ball location of quarterback Drew Lock -- in a game versus an aggressive Saints defense -- I would look for a better matchup at the WR3 spot in your lineup.
Reid: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. In the Cowboys' 31-28 victory over the Minnesota Vikings, Elliott had his first 100-rushing game of the season. But he had only 45 yards rushing in Washington's 25-3 Week 7 victory. Again, Washington's defensive line appears ready for the challenge.
Seifert: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens. The Steelers are holding opponents to the NFL's lowest Total QBR (54.1). There isn't going to be much room for Jackson to operate.
Walder: Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles. With Carson Wentz struggling, I don't expect the Eagles to be able to keep up with Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense at all. Which will only force more obvious passing situations for Wentz -- and none of that equals a lot of opportunity for Sanders. Seattle ranks eighth in EPA per rush on defense, too.
Yates: Melvin Gordon III, RB, Broncos. Gordon is coming off of a terrific 15-carry, 84-yard, two-touchdown effort, but now he draws one of the elite run defenses in the game in the Saints. The Saints have not allowed a 100-yard rusher since Nov. 19, 2017. Wow.