Dak Prescott's season-ending injury rocked the NFL world on Sunday. The image of a clearly emotional Prescott leaving the AT&T Stadium turf on a cart resonated with hundreds of NFL players who tweeted support and respect.
When a top-10 quarterback leading the league's most popular franchise five games into a franchise-tag year is brought to tears over the brutality of the sport, the ripple effect is massive. A right ankle compound fracture and dislocation leaves Prescott with a lengthy rehab process and Dallas without its unquestioned leader.
The player with 42 wins since 2016, third among NFL quarterbacks, was a threat to throw for 400 yards every week in 2020.
The good news is Prescott remains, in the words of Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones on Monday, "our future," with the Sunday night ankle surgery deemed successful.
But the next six months will bring answers for the state of the franchise, Prescott's place in it and a former Pro Bowl quarterback out of Cincinnati looking to reignite his career.
After talking with league personnel, here's a look at the aftermath of the Dak injury from several angles.
Jump ahead:
How the league views Dak's injury
Dak's future with the Cowboys
Two potential free-agency front runners
Can Andy Dalton lead them to the playoffs?
How the league views Dak's injury
Execs aren't overly concerned about Prescott's return to an NFL lineup as an impact player. This doesn't appear to be an Alex Smith or Teddy Bridgewater situation in which Prescott should miss multiple years, and there's precedent for players returning from a compound fracture.
In 2011, for example, former NFL pass-rusher Connor Barwin recorded 11.5 sacks one year after he suffered a similar injury to his right ankle.
But those same execs floated some potential concerns: Whether the dislocation will cause circulation issues post-surgery; and the impact of the injury occurring on his planting (right) foot.
"You'd probably rather it be the front foot," said an NFL exec. "It could take some time for him to rediscover strength pushing off and getting explosion on his throws."
Whether these are long-term issues can't be immediately traced, but they are at least examples of what could complicate Prescott's return. Mostly, coaches are saddened to see a good quarterback in his prime go down like this.
A Dallas team pounded by injuries looked to Prescott for stability. The Cowboys have had 10 players on injured reserve this year, missing two high-level tackles (Tyron Smith and La'el Collins), their most versatile linebacker (Leighton Vander Esch) and an ascending tight end (Blake Jarwin).
Multiple coaches said Prescott appeared to be strengthening his place among the league's better quarterbacks. They also pointed to his durability, having never missed a game since entering the league in 2016. Prescott's 69 consecutive starts are by far the most for a quarterback drafted in the fourth round or later beginning his career, outdistancing Mike Pagel (20) and Kyle Orton (14), according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
"He was at the point where he had complete control of that offense," said an NFL coordinator familiar with game-planning against the Cowboys. "He's putting them in the right plays and has a real chemistry with [offensive coordinator Kellen Moore]. He'll take what the defense gives him. He might not be top-top tier, but he's close."
As a separate coordinator added, "Obvious leadership qualities and intangibles ... extremely physical for the position ... very difficult to take down, can drive the ball to any part of the field ... doesn't get enough credit for taking care of the ball. ... He can create and isn't afraid of the moment."
Conversely, one exec said he still hasn't seen improvement in Prescott's ability to quickly process tendencies pre- and post-snap or throw with elite touch.
There are whispers in some coaching circles that next year's offseason work could be done virtually due to COVID-19, which could actually help Prescott. If he needs at least six months to recover, he can do so without the spotlight of OTAs.
Dak's future with Cowboys
Before forecasting Prescott's contract status with Dallas, let's quickly lay out some context.
Last offseason, the Cowboys put together a deal that sources said would have guaranteed Prescott more than $100 million, with an average annual payout similar to those of the highest-paid quarterbacks at the time. Though the exact number is unknown, one source with knowledge of the situation said the deal wasn't far off from Russell Wilson's $35 million per year.
There were issues with the overall structure of that deal. The Cowboys don't do deals of less than five years for top veterans, which can sometimes lead to back-loaded contracts. So once Prescott decided he wasn't taking the offer, the Cowboys weren't comfortable going higher in price, instead opting to play this out on a one-year pact with plans to act in good faith in 2021.
Make no mistake: This was a deal that some people in NFL circles believed Prescott should have taken. They consider Prescott very good but also a fringe top-10 quarterback who won't see the Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson market crest.
But Prescott and agent Todd France swung big and for good reason: Two franchise tags would have paid out close to $70 million over two seasons, offering unprecedented leverage to the young quarterback.
Prescott bet on himself with the big, one-year payout. With that bet now ending at least 11 games early, here's the general belief among NFL officials:
The Cowboys could be less inclined to pay a second franchise tag of $37.68 million in 2021 if it comes to that. Prescott's current tag of $31.4 million is the highest quarterback cap hit in the league this year, while next year's number would be third highest, behind Matt Ryan's $40.9 million and Ben Roethlisberger's $41.25 million. That's a steep hit for a one-year pact.
The Cowboys could try to aggressively re-sign Prescott with a long-term deal early after the season to get ahead of things.
Prescott would be making a huge mistake to entertain an incentive-heavy deal as a result of his injury, knowing his value is still very high, despite his injury.
"The injury doesn't help, but I still think he'll be looking at a top-five-quarterback contract when this is all said and done," an NFL exec said.
That means $33 million per year is the floor. And that's not a bad bet in the end, especially with Prescott's hefty loss-of-value insurance policy in case the money is lower.
Not everyone sees a clear path to that number just yet. One prominent NFL agent said he isn't so sure the Cowboys would give the same offer from last offseason, at least initially, while trying to exercise whatever leverage they have.
Dak as a 2021 free agent
Exploring Prescott's options as a true free agent is clear-cut but also complicated by his Dallas ties.
Prescott would likely be the top signal-caller on a market that includes an immobile Philip Rivers, a benched Mitchell Trubisky and Ryan Fitzpatrick's beard.
The only reason to say "likely" is in case Cam Newton continues to build on his momentum with the New England Patriots, recaptures his former MVP magic and repositions himself for a large payout in March. Even then, however, Prescott in his prime is probably atop the list, and he would have attractive options.
One NFC exec prioritizes two above all others: the Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears.
The Colts are built to win now with a stout offensive line and a good defense. Rivers, who signed a one-year, $25 million deal with the Colts in March, has five interceptions in his first five games with Indianapolis, and 25 picks in his last 21 games overall. His lack of mobility could be an issue over 16 games. Rivers and backup Jacoby Brissett ($21.375 million cap hit) both come off the Colts' books in 2021, freeing up nearly $50 million in cap space.
"[Prescott] could be even better in an offense where he's not throwing the ball 58 times a game," said the NFC exec, referring to Prescott's 58 passing attempts in a Week 4 loss to Cleveland, which led by 27 points in the third quarter. "He could really flourish there because of the balance they have."
The exec also said Chicago is where "[Matt] Nagy is implementing more of the RPOs that would help Prescott," with Nick Foles' 2021 cap hit of $6.66 million good value as a bridge starter while Prescott gets healthy or as a backup. Of course, Foles could cement himself as Chicago's long-term starter with his performance this year. But that's hardly determined yet.
Several other teams will be looking for quarterbacks, but the New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars and others at the bottom of the standings can capitalize on a deep QB pool in the draft.
A separate NFC exec said Dallas is still Prescott's best fit because the Cowboys know him so well.
"He's the face of that franchise and can continue to be," the exec said. "It's not like they have a five-year plan at quarterback outside of him. He's the plan."
The Andy Dalton effect
Rarely does a team have a three-time Pro Bowler ready to take over for an injured starting quarterback.
The Andy Dalton signing in May was significant because Dallas hadn't inked a true established backup for the better part of the past decade. Dalton is arguably Dallas' most accomplished No. 2 since Brad Johnson in 2007 and '08 (not counting Tony Romo, who went to the bench because of injury).
Prescott's presence and rocky contract negotiation made Dalton's signing curious, but the Cowboys saw wild value at $3 million for a player some considered more coveted on the market than Newton at the time.
Dalton completed 9 of 11 passes for 111 yards in Sunday's 37-34 win over the New York Giants, including a 38-yard dime to Michael Gallup down the sideline to set up Greg Zuerlein's game-winning field goal as time expired.
"Dalton is no slouch, especially in an offense that's better than any he's ever played on," an NFC exec said. "He played with confidence [on Sunday]."
Dalton doesn't possess Prescott's ability to leave the pocket to make a play; that isn't Dalton's strength. So the Cowboys might accentuate the quick-decision passing game.
Prescott's absence offers the Cowboys the chance to reset the offense behind Ezekiel Elliott, who emerged from last year's Cabo-induced preseason eyeing a bigger impact.
The Cowboys would welcome explosive plays from Elliott, who doesn't have a run longer than 35 yards since Sept. 30, 2018, against the Detroit Lions.
"Dalton will manage it. With a beat-up offensive line, they should still lean heavily on Zeke and their play-action passing game," an NFC exec said.
Dalton has three reasons to make this work: Be part of another playoff team, bolster his résumé for another starting job somewhere and make millions this year.
Dalton's contract has $3 million in base salary and signing-bonus money but includes up to $4 million in incentives. If he leads the Cowboys to the playoffs, he gets $1 million. Dalton has already made $86 million over his career, so let's safely assume for this situation that he prioritizes winning above basic financial considerations.
And he has one of the game's best receiving corps to make that happen. One coordinator said Dallas essentially has three No. 1s in Amari Cooper, Gallup and CeeDee Lamb. No other team can boast that.
The best news for Dallas
On a dark day for the franchise, optimism is one Google search away.
The NFC East standings suggest six or seven victories might win the division. At 2-3, Dallas takes a commanding lead over the 1-3-1 Philadelphia Eagles.
Some evaluators don't see a .500-or-above team in the lot. Still, Dallas has a 48.4% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN's projections for the entire league, compared to 34.3% for the Eagles. Those same projections give Dallas a 47.6% chance to win the division.
"New York and Washington won't be close, and Philadelphia doesn't have the playmakers for that offense to function," an NFC exec said. "The running game isn't great, and no receivers scare you. Dallas at least has that."