Through two weeks of the NFL season, we've seen an improved Josh Allen in Buffalo, a struggling Carson Wentz in Philadelphia and an out-of-sync Drew Brees in New Orleans. We've also seen a dominant defense in Indianapolis, a bad defense in Detroit and an even worse offense in Minnesota. Which of these early-season surprises are sustainable, and which are likely to reverse course?
We asked our NFL Nation reporters to pick the biggest surprises for the team they cover, then give their verdict -- real or a mirage? -- on whether each surprise will continue for the rest of the season.
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys (1-1)
The biggest surprise: The Cowboys' pass rush hasn't shown up.
The verdict: Real. The Cowboys have two sacks in two games. It was supposed to be a lot better with additions of Everson Griffen and Aldon Smith, the return to form of DeMarcus Lawrence, the return to health of Tyrone Crawford and a more disguised scheme under new coordinator Mike Nolan. A big factor? The Cowboys have struggled getting their opponents in favorable third-down situations to get after the quarterback. Fourteen of the 17 third-down plays vs. the Rams were third-and-2-to-5. Against Atlanta, nine of 19 third-down plays were 6 yards or more. Dallas needs to do a better job on first and second down to allow its pass-rushers more opportunities to get home. That will be tough this week against Seattle's Russell Wilson. -- Todd Archer
New York Giants (0-2)
The biggest surprise: The Giants are tied for fifth in the NFL with six sacks.
The verdict: Mirage. This was supposed to be a weakness, getting to the opposing quarterback. But this might not be sustainable. The Giants had four sacks Sunday of Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, but those were their only four quarterback hits. In the first two weeks, they are getting sacks despite subpar overall pressure. Their pressure percentage is just 19.7%, according to NFL Next Gen Stats data, which ranks 24th in the NFL. It would seem the sacks will eventually come more in line with the pressure. -- Jordan Raanan
Philadelphia Eagles (0-2)
The biggest surprise: Carson Wentz is off to a brutal start.
The verdict: Mirage. Wentz is tied for most interceptions (four) through two weeks, ranks 29th in completion percentage (58.8), 32nd in yards per attempt (6.0) and is ahead of only Kirk Cousins in quarterback rating (64.4). The Eagles are now 14-15 under his stewardship since that magical 2017 run, and there are some flaws in his game -- such as a lack of situational awareness in spots -- that haven't gone away. There is legitimate concern here, but there's no doubt Wentz is better than what he has shown through two weeks and can calm the masses (some) by stringing a couple of good outings together. -- Tim McManus
Washington Football Team (1-1)
The biggest surprise: The lack of receptions by the running backs.
The verdict: Mirage. Third-down back J.D. McKissic and rookie Antonio Gibson have combined for just four catches for six yards. Part of their allure was their versatility, the ability to line up in receiver formations and help create mismatches. Against Arizona in Week 2, Washington used them in protection more and released on safety valve routes. But coach Ron Rivera knows both players could provide a punch for a sputtering attack. "We saw how dynamic those guys are when we hand the ball off to them," he said. "It does tell you if we can get the ball to them in space, they can be pretty good." -- John Keim
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears (2-0)
The biggest surprise: The defense has looked ordinary.
The verdict: Mirage. The Lions and Giants each marched down the field and had the ball inside the red zone with a chance to win on the game's final play. Both Detroit and New York came up short, but the Bears' defense didn't exactly slam the door shut. In fact, the Lions jumped in front 23-6 in Week 1, and in Week 2 the Giants -- without Saquon Barkley or Sterling Shepard -- scored 13 second-half points and had one touchdown drive go for 95 yards on 11 plays. Still, this defense is bound to improve as veteran outside linebacker Robert Quinn -- signed in free agency to rush the passer opposite Khalil Mack -- assumes a larger role. Chicago was cautious with Quinn's (ankle) snap count in Week 1, but coordinator Chuck Pagano is expected to eventually turn Quinn loose. Chicago also boasts Pro Bowlers (Akiem Hicks, Eddie Jackson, Mack) at every level of its defense. -- Jeff Dickerson
Detroit Lions (0-2)
The biggest surprise: The defense might not be improved from 2019.
The verdict: Real. The Lions are allowing 425.5 yards per game (28th in the NFL), 6.5 yards per play (28th) and an NFL-worst 204 rushing yards per game. They still can't pressure the quarterback (two total sacks over two games) and are allowing 31 points per game. With Arizona's No. 6-rated offense followed by the Saints coming up next, it doesn't seem like it will get better any time soon. -- Michael Rothstein
Green Bay Packers (2-0)
The biggest surprise: Rashan Gary looks like a different player in Year 2.
The verdict: Real. After a disappointing rookie season that left some wondering if he was worth the 12th pick in the draft, Gary looks like a different player. He admitted he "didn't like the player I saw" when he watched 2019 film of himself. He should like what he sees now. Gary has 1.5 sacks so far, but as outside linebackers coach Mike Smith always says, it's not just about sacks. According to ESPN's video analysis, Gary already has seven plays in which he was the first player to get a quarterback pressure. That ranks tied for 10th in the NFL through two games. He was in the face of Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford in Week 2, which led to Chandon Sullivan's pick-six.
"He promised our defense he's going to be a difference-maker on defense," Sullivan said after the Lions game. "He was able to get pressure last week and pressure this week, and he came to me on the sideline and was like, 'I was definitely there. I had you.' And I already knew. I already know what you can do, so happy for him." -- Rob Demovsky
Minnesota Vikings (0-2)
The biggest surprise: The offense has struggled through two games.
The verdict: Real. The Vikings touted their continuity all offseason, and it was a driving factor behind many decisions. Kirk Cousins was going to be better in his second year under Gary Kubiak's leadership after having a new offensive coordinator every year since 2015. Cousins lost Stefon Diggs but still had a solid supporting cast around him. The offensive line remained a work in progress, but Minnesota drafted a future franchise left tackle and moved pieces around. Still, the offense has not been able to play at a level in which it can pull its own weight and that of a rebuilding defense. Simply put, the offense has not shown improvement thus far, and without a defense capable of bailing them out, it could be a very trying season. -- Courtney Cronin
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons (0-2)
The biggest surprise: Russell Gage's emergence as the team's No. 3 receiver.
The verdict: Real. The team had big expectations coming into the season for Gage, but no one expected him to be second on the team in receptions with 15, one behind Calvin Ridley and four more than star Julio Jones. Gage has been a reliable target for quarterback Matt Ryan even despite the team's 0-2 start. And he showed his versatility by lining up in the Wildcat and delivering a perfect strike to Jones against Dallas, although Jones dropped it. Gage, who played defensive back at LSU and quarterback in high school, has emerged as a nice weapon for the Falcons. -- Vaughn McClure
Carolina Panthers (0-2)
The biggest surprise: The Panthers are the only team with no sacks.
The verdict: Mirage. The front four appeared to be the strength of the defense heading into the season, but Carolina has zero sacks and only six quarterback pressures, which both rank last in the NFL. This is a highly rated group -- with Kawann Short and rookie first-round pick Derrick Brown at defensive tackle and Brian Burns, Stephen Weatherly and Yetur Gross-Matos at defensive end -- and there's too much talent for this to continue. Getting back Short, who missed the Week 2 loss to Tampa Bay, will help. He was one of the league's best at applying inside pressure before missing most of last season with a shoulder injury. Brown will improve with experience. When those two start playing well and demanding double teams, they'll open up the edge for Burns & Co. -- David Newton
New Orleans Saints (1-1)
The biggest surprise: Drew Brees and the passing game are out of sync.
The verdict: Mirage. The 41-year-old Brees is showing some signs of age. According to research by ESPN Stats & Information, his average of 4.82 air yards on passes this season is the lowest of any quarterback since Brett Favre in 2009. And he has shown some uncharacteristic accuracy issues on short and intermediate throws. It's not like Brees' arm strength suddenly vanished, though. He has been relying less and less on the deep ball in recent years -- and still found a way to post the two best passer ratings of his career in 2018 and 2019, with the two best completion percentages in NFL history. He and coach Sean Payton will manage their way through these early woes, especially once wide receiver Michael Thomas returns from an ankle injury.
"Well, my job is to execute the offense. ... My job's not to have the most air yards or throw the ball down the field most or anything like that," said Brees, who chuckled when asked about the narrative that he's showing signs of a steep decline. -- Mike Triplett
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
The biggest surprise: Rob Gronkowski's lack of production.
The verdict: Real. Gronkowski, Tom Brady's favorite target for much of the past decade, has run just 33 routes and been targeted four times, managing two catches for 11 yards. Until Brady gets in coach Bruce Arians' and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich's ears and convinces them to use the tight end more, though, it sounds like Gronk won't be playing a significant role in the Bucs' offense outside of his run blocking. "We're not throwing the ball 50 times to tight ends -- that's what we have receivers for [and] that's the way our offense is built," Arians said Monday. "Gronk's playing great run blocking in the fourth quarter, so I'm not concerned with his pass catches or his targets."
That seems like a waste considering the Bucs are paying Gronk $9.8 million for the season and have committed $18.9 million to their tight ends this year -- more than any other team in the league at that position, according to ESPN's Roster Management System. -- Jenna Laine
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals (2-0)
The biggest surprise: Kyler Murray's sacks are down by 37.5%.
The verdict: Real. Murray and the rest of the Cardinals' offense has made it a priority to cut down on sacks. Last season, Murray was sacked 50 times -- including eight in the first two games. He has been brought down just five times in 2020, a small but marked improvement from a year ago, and a sign that the Cardinals' focus on reducing sacks is already working. It's also a sign of Murray's maturity. He has cut down on trying to force plays when the pocket breaks down and has continued to throw the ball away when he doesn't have any more options, something he started doing at the end of last season. -- Josh Weinfuss
Los Angeles Rams (2-0)
The biggest surprise: An improved defense under first-year coordinator Brandon Staley.
The verdict: Real. The Rams are one of only two teams (Ravens) that haven't allowed an opponent to score 20 points this season. Staley, an outside linebackers coach the past three seasons under Vic Fangio, has his unit playing fast and making stops when they count most. Defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey are the known stars of the unit, but their supporting cast -- including several first-year starters and a rookie safety -- have quickly stepped up to produce game-changing plays. They stopped Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys in Week 1, then dismantled Carson Wentz and the Eagles in Week 2. As their young players gain more experience, and the entire unit becomes more familiar with Staley's scheme, they will only continue to improve.
"I don't want to put like a ceiling on it or a cap on it," Ramsey said about the defense's potential. "We have so much more to tap into." -- Lindsey Thiry
San Francisco 49ers (1-1)
The biggest surprise: The sheer amount of bad luck the 49ers have had.
The verdict: Mirage. Injuries are a part of the NFL, but the Niners have been hit by an avalanche that only the Broncos can relate to in the first two weeks. San Francisco has either played without or seen roughly six of its 10 best players in either or both of the first two games. It's not just injuries, either. Its MRI truck in West Virginia broke down before the team could even use it. The good news? Many of their injured players -- save for defensive linemen Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas -- should be back soon and the schedule is light for the next three weeks. If nothing else, the 49ers' luck figures to get better because it can't get much worse. -- Nick Wagoner
Seattle Seahawks (2-0)
The biggest surprise: The Seahawks' pass rush has (statistically) been worse than it was last season.
The verdict: Mirage. Yes, that was their biggest question mark heading into this season, but the their pass rush looked as though it could at least be slightly better than 2019, when they finished near the bottom of the league in sacks and pressure rate. They don't appear to have the firepower to finish near the top of the league in those categories -- they have only three sacks so far -- especially now that Bruce Irvin will miss the rest of the season. But Seattle still has enough talent on defense to be good enough to mount a credible pass rush. That could mean relying more on blitzers like Jamal Adams and Bobby Wagner. -- Brady Henderson
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills (2-0)
The biggest surprise: Josh Allen has emerged as the NFL's premier passer.
The verdict: Real. No quarterback has thrown for more yards than Allen's 729 through two games, and he looks like a bona fide star in his third season. Beyond the yards, Allen has thrown six touchdown passes and zero interceptions while completing 70% of his passes. His 122.9 passer rating ranks behind only Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson. His two performances have come against the Jets and Dolphins, but the kind of numbers he has put up cannot be ignored. He has looked like the real deal, and the Bills are winning games because of what he can do with his arm, which they couldn't say in either of the past two seasons. Allen will be tested from here on out with one of the league's most brutal schedules from Week 3 to Week 14, but he'll be an MVP candidate if he keeps up this level of play. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Miami Dolphins (0-2)
The biggest surprise: Myles Gaskin leads the Dolphins' backfield in snaps and touches.
The verdict: Mirage. Two weeks in a row, it has been the 2019 seventh-round pick Gaskin -- not veteran offseason additions Jordan Howard or Matt Breida -- leading the running backs, but I still believe this will balance out closer to what we expected as the year goes on. With 146 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, Gaskin has been impressive in his increased role. His dual skill set as a runner and receiver makes him the most balanced back on the roster, but the early trend seems to be leaning toward him because of comfort. By the midpoint of the season, Howard and/or Breida will likely overtake Gaskin. -- Cameron Wolfe
New England Patriots (1-1)
The biggest surprise: Cam Newton looks like his superstar self.
The verdict: Real. The top questions surrounding Newton after he officially signed with the Patriots in July were: 1. Is he healthy? 2. How will he acclimate to the Patriots' system and culture? The surprise is how decisively he has answered both questions, as he's the best thing the Patriots have going right now. Newton has thrown for 552 yards and racked up five total touchdowns -- four on the ground -- so far. -- Mike Reiss
New York Jets (0-2)
The biggest surprise: Mekhi Becton's quick transition to the NFL.
The verdict: Real. Everybody knew the Jets were getting a talented left tackle when they drafted Becton with the 11th overall pick, but there figured to be a learning curve, especially with no preseason games to get acclimated to NFL speed. We figured wrong. Becton hasn't played like a rookie. He's dominant at times, especially in the running game. He plays with power, leverage, sound technique, rare athleticism and an overall nastiness. Becton already has held up well against outstanding pass rushers, Jerry Hughes (Bills) and Nick Bosa (49ers), so there's every reason to believe this isn't a fluke. As quarterback Sam Darnold said, "Becton has been awesome." -- Rich Cimini
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens (2-0)
The biggest surprise: The decline of Lamar Jackson's rushing yards.
The verdict: Mirage. The reigning NFL MVP is running as much as last season, which is a surprise within itself. He has just been less effective at it. Jackson has 99 rushing yards after two games, which is far below last year's pace (an average of 80.4 yards rushing per game). He's averaging 4.3 yards per carry -- far from his 6.9-yard average a year ago -- and his longest run has been 16 yards. He is third among quarterbacks in rushing, trailing Kyler Murray (158 yards) and Cam Newton (122). Jackson didn't go from being the NFL's most explosive playmaker to a pedestrian runner in one year, however.
Defenses have done a great job at containing him in the pocket with their pressure packages to keep him from scrambling and have been more prepared for his designed runs. But Jackson has been one broken tackle away from a couple of long runs. He likely won't surpass his own NFL record of 1,206 rushing yards, but no one should be surprised if he bounces back and produces 900 yards. -- Jamison Hensley
Cincinnati Bengals (0-2)
The biggest surprise: The Bengals are using their tight ends at one of the highest rates in the league.
The verdict: Real. Through two weeks, Cincinnati is tied for third with 10.5 targets per game, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. In 2019, the Bengals were 15th in that category. Even with C.J. Uzomah out for the season with an Achilles injury, expect them to continue to use the position group in the passing attack. Second-year player Drew Sample has made significant strides as a receiver, including an impressive one-handed grab that he said was the first of his playing career. Sample has caught eight of 10 targets for 52 yards. -- Ben Baby
Cleveland Browns (1-1)
The biggest surprise: The Browns' offensive line has been good.
The verdict: Real. After fielding one of the most inconsistent offensive lines in 2019, including porous pass protection off the edge, Cleveland's unit up front has been strong through two weeks. The Browns rank fourth in ESPN's new run block win rate metric, paving the way for the league's second-best rushing offense. On top of that, they're seventh in pass block win rate, giving Baker Mayfield plenty of time to find receivers downfield. The Browns made revamping their offensive line their top priority in the offseason, signing right tackle Jack Conklin and drafting left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr in Round 1. That investment looks like it has paid off. -- Jake Trotter
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0)
The biggest surprise: The Steelers have a depleted offensive line.
The verdict: Real. Entering the season, one of the Steelers' deepest positions was the offensive line. There was slated to be only one new starter -- a battle between Chuks Okorafor and Zach Banner for right tackle, with the loser becoming the team's top backup and extra lineman. They also added Stefen Wisniewski in free agency, giving the line veteran depth. But a week in, the team had to call on Wisniewski to start for injured veteran guard David DeCastro. After that game, though, the Steelers put both Wisniewski and Banner on injured reserve, forcing the team to start rookie fourth-round pick Kevin Dotson in Week 2. DeCastro's timeline is unclear, but Wisniewski is out for at least three weeks and Banner is done for the season. Suddenly, the Steelers' line is operating on a razor-thin margin. -- Brooke Pryor
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans (0-2)
The biggest surprise: Deshaun Watson's pedestrian numbers so far.
The verdict: Mirage. The Texans' star quarterback is off to a slow start, with two touchdown passes, two interceptions and 528 passing yards. His 55.1 Total QBR ranks 20th in the league. That should change, however, as the schedule starts getting easier after games against the Chiefs and Ravens to begin the season. He likely won't put up Patrick Mahomes numbers, but Watson will single-handedly win the Texans games this season, as he had done many times in his first three NFL seasons. -- Sarah Barshop
Indianapolis Colts (1-1)
The biggest surprise: The Colts have the NFL's top-ranked defense, allowing just 208 yards per game.
The verdict: Mirage. Led by defensive lineman DeForest Buckner and linebacker Darius Leonard, they should have one of the league's best defenses, but it's a stretch to believe it will continue to be the stingiest unit in the league, especially with them leading Baltimore and Pittsburgh by 97 yards allowed per game. That's not sustainable. The Colts still have to face quarterbacks Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson (twice) and Ben Roethlisberger this season. -- Mike Wells
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1)
The biggest surprise: Running back James Robinson's rise.
The verdict: Real. Robinson, the undrafted rookie the team opted to keep over Leonard Fournette, ran for 102 yards and a touchdown and caught three passes for 18 yards in the Jaguars' 33-30 loss at Tennessee on Sunday. He now has 164 yards on the ground this season, the most by a player in franchise history through his first two games. Coach Doug Marrone said in the days after Fournette's release that the plan was to go with a committee approach, but that fell apart after Ryquell Armstead landed on the reserve/COVID-19 list for the second time (he also battled a groin injury and another illness in camp) and Devine Ozigbo went on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. After what he has done the first two weeks, Robinson has a firm grip on being the Jags' RB1. -- Mike DiRocco
Tennessee Titans (2-0)
The biggest surprise: The Titans have just two sacks.
The verdict: Mirage. Tennessee is tied for the third-fewest sacks in the league through two games. The pass rush was supposed to be improved with the additions of Jadeveon Clowney and Vic Beasley Jr. and progressions from Jeffery Simmons and Harold Landry. Although they haven't racked up sack totals, the defense is still impacting the quarterback -- it has 10 QB hits. Clowney has gotten a few pressures that led to near interceptions. Simmons was able to tip a pass at the line of scrimmage that as intercepted by Landry. The Titans miss retired defensive coordinator Dean Pees' well-schemed blitz packages, but they have found some success blitzing safety Kenny Vaccaro. The sack numbers will come in due time. More importantly, they have to keep pressuring quarterbacks. -- Turron Davenport
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos (0-2)
The biggest surprise: Noah Fant leading the team in catches (nine), receiving yards (138) and touchdowns (two).
The verdict: Real. The surprise isn't that the 2019 first-round pick has showed his vast potential; it's that the tight end wasn't expected to be the top target. With Courtland Sutton's season-ending knee injury -- and the fact that three of the six other wide receivers on the roster are rookies -- Fant is going to have to do plenty of heavy lifting in the passing game for the remainder of the season. He is also the only matchup the Broncos can consistently win in the passing game, and as the team works to find more ways to get him loose, his numbers will consistently be the best among NFL tight ends. -- Jeff Legwold
Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)
The biggest surprise: The Chiefs' rookie class has made a big impact.
The verdict: Real. They have received significant contributions in the first two games from five rookies, not just running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. This is an important development for the team because it didn't have a first-round draft pick in 2018 or 2019. At least three of these players look like they have staying power. Edwards-Helaire is seventh in the league in rushing (176 yards) and averaging 5.0 yards per carry, cornerback L'Jarius Sneed leads the league in interceptions with two, and punter Tommy Townsend is off to a good start. The Chiefs have also been receiving meaningful production from defensive linemen Mike Danna and Tershawn Wharton, one a fifth-round pick and the other undrafted. -- Adam Teicher
Las Vegas Raiders (2-0)
The biggest surprise: The defense's lack of sacks.
The verdict: Real. After garnering 32 sacks last season, the Raiders have one sack through two games, and it is shared by defensive tackle Maurice Hurst and defensive end Carl Nassib. What gives? Well, Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Brees were just nimble enough in Weeks 1 and 2, but with Cam Newton, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes on the horizon, Las Vegas' pass rush has to figure something out, and quick, to make the lack of sacks in this early and small sample size more mirage than real. -- Paul Gutierrez
Los Angeles Chargers (1-1)
The biggest surprise: Rookie Justin Herbert's surprise Week 2 start.
The verdict: Real. Nobody expected the No. 6 overall pick to play this early, but he was forced into starting after Tyrod Taylor's pregame injury. Will Herbert keep the job? We shall see what happens Week 3 against the Panthers. Fans are screaming for Herbert, but Coach Anthony Lynn said Monday that if Taylor is healthy, he's the starter. Herbert flashed during his debut, becoming the first player with a rushing and passing touchdown in the first half of their first game since the Giants' Bobby Clatterbuck in 1954. Overall, he passed for 311 yards, completing 66.7% of his throws, with a TD and an INT. It was a promising debut. -- Shelley Smith