Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season is just around the corner. What better way to raise -- or temper -- expectations than a complete breakdown of predictions and projections?
Below is a guide of what to expect once the season kicks off Thursday, from power rankings, to teams that will score the most points and defenses that will allow the least, to the toughest and easiest schedules, as well as predictions for the playoffs and Super Bowl LV.
I usually kick this thing off with a look at the best and worst positional units across the league, but I did an expanded version of that in August, so be sure to also check that out. Instead, let's begin with a look at the schedule.
Jump ahead to:
Schedule: Easiest | Toughest
Offense projections: Best | Worst
Defense projections: Best | Worst
Power Rankings | Super Bowl pick
Offensive, defensive unit rankings
Easiest schedules
1. Miami Dolphins
The departure of Tom Brady from New England leaves the door wide open for a new champ in the AFC East. Though Miami has work to do in terms of roster construction (more on that later), the league's lightest schedule will help the cause. Miami will benefit from six games against a division that got worse during the offseason (looking at you, Jets and Patriots), as well as unique games against the Bengals and Jaguars.
2. Indianapolis Colts
The combination of a quality roster and the league's second-easiest schedule have the Colts primed for a run at the AFC South title. They'll face off with both North divisions, and their unique AFC games are the underwhelming Jets and Raiders. At least prior to the playoffs, the Colts' only "cold" game will be a Week 16 trip to Pittsburgh.
3. Detroit Lions
Similar to Indianapolis, Detroit has a shot at a division title after a strong offseason and thanks to a light projected schedule. The Lions will face off with the South divisions and their unique games are Arizona and Washington.
Hardest schedules
1. Atlanta Falcons
Another year, another tough schedule for Atlanta. One quarter of the Falcons' slate will be against the loaded Saints and much-improved Buccaneers (all four games are after Week 10). They'll also be facing off with the NFC North and AFC West divisions, as well as unique games against Seattle and Dallas.
2. Carolina Panthers
A rebuilding Carolina squad faces similar issues to Atlanta, with New Orleans and Tampa Bay both on the schedule twice. The Panthers' unique games will be Arizona and Washington. Road games against the Chiefs, Chargers, Vikings and Packers just add to the tough slate.
3. New York Giants
As if facing the division-rival Eagles and Cowboys twice each wasn't enough, the Giants will face off with the NFC West and AFC North divisions this season. That slate includes road trips to Los Angeles, Seattle and Baltimore. New York's unique games are a trip to Chicago and a home game against much-improved Tampa Bay.
Projected highest-scoring teams
1. Kansas City Chiefs: 470 points
The Chiefs top this category for the second consecutive season. Last year, they fell short of a heavily regressed projection of 469 points (they scored 451), but it's fair to expect a slight boost with a healthy Patrick Mahomes under center. The Kansas City offensive line is solid, and Mahomes has plenty of weapons, led by Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
2. New Orleans Saints: 442 points
The Saints have ranked no lower than fourth in this category each of the past four seasons and haven't fallen below 12th during the Drew Brees era. Brees may be 41 years old, but he didn't show signs of falling off in 2019. New Orleans' offensive line is one of the league's best, and Brees will benefit from the presence of Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook and newcomer Emmanuel Sanders.
3. Baltimore Ravens: 416 points
Baltimore easily paced the NFL with 531 points last season, but like Kansas City last season (they fell from 565 in 2018 to 451 in 2019), we should anticipate some regression. Consider: Since 2007, 34 offenses have scored 50-plus touchdowns in a single regular season. Only four of the 34 increased its TD total the following season (none by more than two), and the average change was minus-11.9 TDs. Even with the inevitable drop, Baltimore has the quarterback (Lamar Jackson), weapons (led by Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown and Mark Ingram II) and offensive line (one of the league's best) to remain near the top of the league in scoring.
Projected lowest-scoring teams
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: 293 points
Jacksonville heads into 2020 with its offense riding on the heels of 2019 sixth-round pick Gardner Minshew II. Minshew impressed at times as a rookie, but he'll have his work cut out behind a shaky line and with a below-average group of weapons.
2. Washington Football Team: 296 points
Washington scored 281 points in 2018 before ranking dead last with 266 points last season. The offensive line is in rough shape, and the skill positions are severely lacking in depth, with the likes of Logan Thomas, Dontrelle Inman and fourth-round rookie Antonio Gandy-Golden set to play significant (likely starting) roles.
3. Chicago Bears: 296 points
Despite acquiring Nick Foles during the offseason, Chicago is sticking with Mitchell Trubisky as its quarterback. That's not ideal considering Chicago's Trubisky-led offense averaged 1.75 TDs per game last season (26th). It also doesn't help that minimal upgrades were made to Trubisky's supporting cast.
Projected defenses to allow the fewest points
1. Pittsburgh Steelers: 316 points
Despite scoring an embarrassing 10 offensive TDs during their final nine games last season, the Steelers almost made the playoffs thanks to a dominant defensive effort in which they allowed 20 TDs during their final 13 outings. The unit's top eight players in terms of 2019 snaps return in 2020, led by T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Minkah Fitzpatrick.
2. Buffalo Bills: 318 points
Sean McDermott's defense put together another dominant season in 2019, allowing the second-fewest points. Similar to Pittsburgh, the unit's top-nine defenders in terms of snaps will be back in 2020. Tre'Davious White, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde and Jerry Hughes are the proven stars, while the likes of Ed Oliver and Tremaine Edmunds are names to watch for a potential leap this season.
3. Denver Broncos: 331 points
This may surprise some, but the Denver defense allowed 28 touchdowns last season, which was fourth-fewest in the league. The unit only got better during the offseason following the additions of Jurrell Casey and A.J. Bouye, and with Bradley Chubb and Bryce Callahan returning from injury. Coach Vic Fangio led Chicago's loaded defense to a breakout in 2018, and this Denver squad is positioned for one in 2020.
Projected defenses to allow the most points
1. Carolina Panthers: 440 points
Carolina allowed the second-most points in 2019 and that was before the offseason housecleaning of veteran talent. Of the 15 defenders who played at least 300 snaps for Carolina last season, only four remain on the roster. The departures include Eric Reid, Luke Kuechly, James Bradberry, Gerald McCoy, Bruce Irvin and Mario Addison. Aside of perhaps defensive tackle, Carolina is young and/or shaky at every level. This is a rebuilding year, and it will show up on the scoreboard.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 431 points
It's been quite the fall for a Jacksonville defense that finished among the top-five defenses in points allowed as recently as 2017 and 2018. Stars of the past like Calais Campbell, Jalen Ramsey, Yannick Ngakoue and A.J. Bouye are long gone. There's some pedigree here in the form of recent first-round picks Taven Bryan, Josh Allen, K'Lavon Chaisson and CJ Henderson, but the holes on nearly every level suggest a rough 2020 is on the horizon.
3. New York Giants: 409 points
The Giants allowed the third-most points in 2019, and their defense remains in rough shape nearly across the board this season. Defensive tackle is an obvious strong point, and the signings of James Bradberry, Logan Ryan and Blake Martinez help the cause. However, injuries, opt-outs and suspensions have left the back seven with severe weak spots in the starting lineup and without much depth.
My preseason Power Rankings
Note: The first 14 teams are projected to make the playoffs.
1. New Orleans Saints
The Saints top these ranks for the third consecutive season. Although the first two didn't lead to a Lombardi Trophy, they went 26-6 during the two regular seasons, outscoring their opponents by 268 points. This season doesn't figure to be much different, with Drew Brees back under center and the roster absolutely stacked across the board. Expect yet another run at a title in what is expected to be Brees' final season.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
The defending champs are in good shape for a run at back-to-back titles. Considering what it looked like on paper, the Kansas City defense seemed to play quite a bit over its head last season, and that remains a concern again in 2020, with weak spots appearing at edge rusher, linebacker and corner. Of course, the Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid-led offense can more than overcome any potential step back defensively.
3. Baltimore Ravens
Following a 2019 season in which they went a league-best 14-2, Baltimore got even better on paper, adding Calais Campbell, Derek Wolfe, first-round pick Patrick Queen and a healthy Tavon Young to a defense that was already one of the league's best units. The loss of Earl Thomas, as well as questions at edge rusher and wide receiver are the red flags, but they're mostly offset by a Baltimore roster loaded with high-end talent at key positions. That, of course, includes league MVP Lamar Jackson.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
Elite defensive play kept them alive, but 2019 was essentially a lost season once Ben Roethlisberger went down for the season in Week 2. Big Ben is back, and the Steelers are loaded for a Super Bowl run. The offense is solid despite a few unproven commodities -- Will James Conner be healthy? How will the young WRs perform? -- and a defense that is already stacked could be even better if youngsters Devin Bush and Terrell Edmunds make a leap.
Jake Trotter looks at the Browns' key additions that could help Baker Mayfield prove that he is the long-term answer at quarterback.
5. San Francisco 49ers
The defending NFC champions traded away arguably their best player in DeForest Buckner during the offseason, but the roster remains in terrific shape. It starts with one of the league's top defenses, led by Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Richard Sherman and Jimmie Ward. Wide receiver injuries and youth aside, the offense is solid. Jimmy Garoppolo figures to have more on his shoulders this season, but he'll have at his disposal George Kittle, a good line that now includes Trent Williams and, of course, Kyle Shanahan's genius.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is on the rise following the offseason signing of Tom Brady. He joins an impressive (albeit top-heavy) offense that includes Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Ali Marpet and Rob Gronkowski. Though all eyes are on the offense, don't overlook an emerging defense that includes veteran stars (Ndamukong Suh, Shaquil Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul, Lavonte David), as well as a whopping seven players drafted on Day 1 or 2 over the past three seasons (including first-rounders Vita Vea and Devin White).
7. Dallas Cowboys
The wheels fell off the wagon in Dallas last season, but this roster looks very good on paper. Offseason additions Dontari Poe, Everson Griffen, Aldon Smith and Randy Gregory help plug some defensive voids/losses and fill out a solid unit. The Dallas offense led the NFL in yardage last season and added first-round pick CeeDee Lamb to a group that already includes Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and one of the league's best lines. The team's success will come down to whether or not Dak Prescott plays at a high level for the entire season.
8. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks roster may be a bit top heavy, but it includes three of the league's best players in QB Russell Wilson, LB Bobby Wagner and now S Jamal Adams. Question marks in the trenches, especially along an unproven defensive line, are reason for concern, but this team has the top-end talent to make another run at the NFC West title.
9. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts' roster isn't free of uncertainty, but the offseason brought plenty of reason for optimism. For starters, they finally filled the Andrew Luck void by upgrading to Philip Rivers. Next, they traded for game-changing DT DeForest Buckner. Finally, they brought back 100% of the league's best offensive line. It's close, but Indianapolis is the best team in the AFC South.
10. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles aren't quite as good as division rival Dallas on paper, but there's no doubt this team has big upside, especially after winning the NFC East in 2019 despite an offense that was overwhelmed with injuries. The skill positions are in better shape entering 2020, although the line has already taken a hit with LT Andre Dillard and RG Brandon Brooks out for the season. The defense remains loaded at defensive tackle, especially after Javon Hargrave was signed, and a trade for Darius Slay highlights an improved cornerback room (finally!). However, linebacker, safety and edge-rushing depth are noticeable concern areas.
11. Tennessee Titans
The Titans exceeded all expectations following the switch to Ryan Tannehill last season, but it's hard to assume the 32-year-old can continue producing elite level efficiency after what we saw throughout most of his career. The offensive line and secondary are strong points on the roster, and a Front 4 that looked shaky earlier in the offseason looks much better following the addition of Jadeveon Clowney to a group that also includes Jeffery Simmons and Harold Landry. Offensive regression to the mean coupled with a very good defense figure to lead to another playoff berth for Tennessee.
12. Minnesota Vikings
Mike Zimmer's defenses have been dominant for a long time, but he'll be in for perhaps his biggest test in 2020. Gone are Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph and the team's top-three corners from last season (Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, Mackenzie Alexander). The defense still has plenty of star power (Danielle Hunter, Harrison Smith, Anthony Harris, Eric Kendricks, Yannick Ngakoue), but deficiencies and/or unproven commodities at corner and defensive tackle are palpable. Offensively, the line and wide-receiver depth remain concern areas, although Kirk Cousins showed last season that he's an above-average quarterback.
13. Cleveland Browns
Another year, more Browns hype from this guy. Here's the thing: regardless of them falling short (again) in 2019, the Cleveland roster is pretty solid on paper, and that can't be ignored. The defense has holes at linebacker and perhaps safety, but the likes of Sheldon Richardson, Myles Garrett, Olivier Vernon and Denzel Ward offer firepower. The offensive line is one of the league's best following the signing of RT Jack Conklin and first-round investment in LT Jedrick Wills Jr. And Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and newcomer Austin Hooper fill out an elite group of skill players. The team's 2020 prospects will, of course, come down to what new coach Kevin Stefanski can get out of third-year QB Baker Mayfield.
14. Buffalo Bills
The departure of Tom Brady from the AFC East has the Bills licking their chops as they target their first division title since 1995. They certainly have the top roster (albeit in the league's worst division), thanks primarily to one of the league's top defenses. The pressure will be on the Buffalo offense this season, with third-year Josh Allen now armed with a good WR trio led by newcomer Stefon Diggs, one of the game's most intriguing young RB duos (Devin Singletary and Zack Moss) and a solid line.
15. Denver Broncos
Denver enters the 2020 season as one of the league's most intriguing teams. The aforementioned defense is strong on every level with the likes of Von Miller, Justin Simmons and newcomer Jurrell Casey leading the way. Denver made the offense the priority during the offseason, adding Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler to Phillip Lindsay, Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant. It will all come down to the play of second-year QB Drew Lock. If he's good, Denver will be great. If he struggles, it may be all for nothing.
16. Green Bay Packers
It's no secret that Green Bay's 2019 win total (13) was a bit inflated, but nonetheless, it's not hard to make a case that this is best team in the NFC North (though I obviously lean Minnesota). Aaron Rodgers is no longer elite, but he's still good, as is his high-end line and top weapon Davante Adams. The defense is solid and has some upside if 2019 first-round picks Darnell Savage and Rashan Gary make a leap. The Packers' short-term outlook would be better if they didn't spend their first three draft picks on a developmental QB, third-string RB and a FB/TE.
17. Detroit Lions
Detroit is our third team from the NFC North here in what should be a wide-open division. The Lions were trending up last season, having started 3-4-1 (which included a game against Kansas City they would've won if not for a freak goal-line play) prior to Matthew Stafford's season-ending injury (they went 0-8 without him). Detroit looks even better on paper in 2020 after overhauling its defense with the likes of Danny Shelton, Jamie Collins Sr., Desmond Trufant, Duron Harmon and first-round pick Jeff Okudah. The front seven still has some question marks, but the back end is good, and the offense is solid pretty much across the board. A light schedule helps position Detroit for a legitimate run at a division title.
18. New England Patriots
The Patriots had about as rough an offseason as one franchise can have. New England's defense was nothing short of elite last season, but Jamie Collins Sr., Duron Harmon, Danny Shelton and Kyle Van Noy are no longer on the roster, and Dont'a Hightower and Patrick Chung both opted out. The secondary remains strong, but the front seven is very shaky. Tom Brady is, of course, the biggest loss of all, and New England will, in turn, be hoping for a bounce-back season from Cam Newton. That's not impossible, but his supporting cast is essentially the same as the one many blamed Brady's recent struggles on. Bill Belichick is the best to ever do it and will face his biggest challenge in 2020.
19. Atlanta Falcons
This ranking feels a pinch low for Atlanta, but there are enough areas of concern to justify it. Matt Ryan is terrific and remains underrated, and while he has some star power in terms of weapons, depth is a severely lacking across the board. The offensive line is loaded with former first-round picks, but the likes of Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary remain unproven. The defense is the bigger issue. There's some star power (Deion Jones, Grady Jarrett, Keanu Neal), but also huge question marks at edge rusher, cornerback and linebacker.
20. Houston Texans
Houston's recent history of shaky trade decisions may finally catch up with it this season, as the defense is one of the league's shakiest on paper. Yes, J.J. Watt remains a game-changer at age-31, but after losing D.J. Reader, defensive tackle, corner and safety are major concern areas. The offensive line still has a ways to go, and although depth is now strong, trading away DeAndre Hopkins is an obvious knock to the wide receiver room. The saving grace could be Deshaun Watson, who has emerged as one of the league's best players.
21. Los Angeles Chargers
It was only two seasons ago that the Chargers matched the Chiefs' 12-4 regular-season record during Patrick Mahomes' MVP campaign. Much has changed since that point, most notably the team's QB switch from Philip Rivers to Tyrod Taylor and eventually first-round pick Justin Herbert. The downgrade at the league's most important position figures to lead to step back for offense, especially considering that the line remains a work in progress. The saving grace may be a defense that added Linval Joseph, Chris Harris Jr. and first-round pick Kenneth Murray to a unit that already includes Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram III, Casey Hayward Jr. and Desmond King II, although the loss of Derwin James certainly hurts the cause.
22. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have put together three consecutive winning seasons under Sean McVay, but the franchise missed the playoffs at 9-7 in 2019 and lost more talent than it gained during the offseason. Gone are five of the team's top eight defenders in terms of 2019 snaps, including Cory Littleton, Eric Weddle and Dante Fowler Jr. Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and John Johnson III are big-time players, but they may not be enough to cover up major holes at edge rusher, linebacker and corner. McVay may save the day with his genius, but the team's offensive personnel doesn't jump off the page, especially after a line that took a major step back last season wasn't addressed during the offseason.
23. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is buried down here outside the top 20, but make no mistake: This team has breakout potential. It starts offensively, with coach Kliff Kingsbury and QB Kyler Murray both entering their second NFL season. The offensive line remains a major concern area, but adding DeAndre Hopkins and a full-season of Kenyan Drake supplies plenty of firepower. The Arizona defense is the bigger worry, with holes along the line, as well as major issues in the secondary behind Patrick Peterson and Budda Baker. Murray will need to put the team on his back, but it's very possible the 2019 first-overall pick has it in him.
24. Las Vegas Raiders
GM Mike Mayock continues to improve the Raiders roster, but mediocrity (at best) at quarterback and a lengthy list of unproven players at key positions suggests Las Vegas is still a year away from competing for a wild card. Offensively, the line is good (assuming Kolton Miller makes a leap), the skill position players are talented but young, and Derek Carr will need to show he can make more plays downfield. The defense got better during the offseason with the additions of Cory Littleton, Nick Kwiatkoski, Maliek Collins and Jeff Heath, but youngsters like Maxx Crosby, Clelin Ferrell, Trayvon Mullen, Damon Arnette are Johnathan Abram are high-pedigree unknowns. This defense has a ton of upside but a lot to prove.
25. New York Giants
A lot will be riding on second-year QB Daniel Jones this season, as a big leap from the 2019 sixth-overall pick could help cover up quite a few roster holes. Jones has a decent and healthy offensive supporting cast led by Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard, though Nate Solder's opt-out raises some concerns along the line. Of course, the Giants' defense is the larger issue. James Bradberry and Logan Ryan help solidify cornerback, and the Leonard Williams-led interior line ranks among the league's best. But edge rusher, safety and overall depth are major problems.
26. Chicago Bears
Chicago remains in a similar position to the past few seasons: good on defense, shaky on offense. Nick Foles was thought to be an upgrade on Mitchell Trubisky under center, but couldn't beat him out for the Week 1 job. Meanwhile, the team's biggest offensive skill position additions were 35-year-old Ted Ginn Jr. and 33-year-old Jimmy Graham. The defense isn't quite the dominant unit it was in 2018, but Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and Eddie Jackson lead what is a top-10 unit.
27. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals were aggressive (finally) on the defensive side of the ball during the offseason, adding underrated star DT D.J. Reader and revamping its secondary with Mackenzie Alexander, Trae Waynes (he'll miss time with an injury) and Vonn Bell. There are still significant holes off the ball, but the defense is now more average than bad. That's notable because the offense has some upside. Led by Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd and A.J. Green, the skill positions are strong, leaving first overall pick Joe Burrow's effectiveness as the big wild card. It might be tough for the rookie to make noise behind of the league's shakiest lines, but the future will be bright in Cincinnati if Burrow is the real deal.
28. Miami Dolphins
The rebuild continues in Miami. One year after cleaning house, the Dolphins went the opposite direction this past offseason, spending up on the likes of Kyle Van Noy, Byron Jones, Shaq Lawson and Jordan Howard, while also adding Tua Tagovailoa, Noah Igbinoghene and Austin Jackson during Round 1 of the draft. The roster is better than last season, but aside of arguably the league's best CB trio, the roster still stacks up poorly at most positions in the short term. Miami is headed the right direction but likely needs another year or two to get to contender status.
29. Washington Football Team
The good news is that Washington has put together one of the league's best young defensive lines, led by five first-round picks, including 2020's second overall selection Chase Young. The bad news is that pretty much every other positional unit is either weak or unproven. That includes key positions like cornerback, offensive line, wideout and, of course, quarterback. The team's 2020 prospects will bank on the development of second-year Dwayne Haskins Jr., but he'll need to overcome arguably the league's worst offensive supporting cast.
30. New York Jets
It was yet another one-step-forward, one-step-back offseason for the Jets. New York smartly completely overhauled the league's worst offensive line but then lost C.J. Mosley to an opt-out and traded away superstar defender Jamal Adams. That trade may work out long term but certainly will be a detriment in 2020. The Jets sneaked their way to a 7-9 record last season after beating up on bad teams down the stretch, but the defense is one of the league's worst on paper. Coach Adam Gase hasn't had a good offense since Denver, but he will look to get Sam Darnold in the right direction with one of the league's shakiest supporting casts. A lot needs to go right for this team to compete this season.
31. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers made a regime change during the offseason, turning to Matt Rhule as its new face of the franchise. As noted earlier, Rhule & Co. started by cleaning house defensively, leaving the unit extremely young (100% of the team's draft picks were spent on that side of the ball) and likely in for what we could politely call a "learning curve" in 2020. Rhule's offense is solid on paper, although that's aside from a QB position that is a major unknown. Teddy Bridgewater hasn't been a full-time starter since 2015.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars polished off their plummet from AFC runner-ups in 2017 to the worst team in the league in 2020 when they traded away Yannick Ngakoue and cut Leonard Fournette in August. It's not hard to make a case that each of Jacksonville's positional units are below average, which obviously suggests the team is in for a rough 2020. On the plus side, recent first-round picks Josh Allen, K'Lavon Chaisson and CJ Henderson provide some upside defensively, and QB Gardner Minshew II played a lot better than a sixth-round rookie last season. The team's new undisputed starter will need a breakout second season to stop the team from selecting its future franchise quarterback with what may be the first overall pick of the 2021 draft.
Super Bowl prediction
Saints over Chiefs
It's tempting to pick the defending champions, who are armed with one of the league's best coaches in Andy Reid and arguably its best player in Patrick Mahomes, but the Saints are pretty darn good in those two areas, as well, with Sean Payton and Drew Brees. New Orleans' all-around roster is also noticeably better, so as long as they can find a way to avoid another postseason collapse, the Saints will be on their way to a Super Bowl title in Brees' final season.