INDIANAPOLIS -- No free-agent quarterback in the 2020 class has more to offer than Jameis Winston.
More yards. More All-Pro potential and prime years remaining.
More interceptions and fumbles. More polarizing opinions from his own team, which doesn't seem to know what to do with him. More confusion about his true identity despite 70 starts, which is usually more than enough to evaluate a quarterback.
More beliefs that his current team is simultaneously the exact right and wrong place for him.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have spent a half decade trying to win with Winston, whose 2019 season sparked a fascinating case study for NFL quarterbacks: Will historic numbers on the best and worst ends of the quarterback spectrum earn a lucrative contract extension, or a one-year, prove-it deal as a Ryan Tannehill-style backup role?
He doesn't have many natural team fits outside of Tampa, but his talent and pedigree probably will be attractive. The two sides could be stuck with each other or bound for contentious divorce -- and each scenario feels realistic.
The Bucs are dizzying their fanbase with mixed signals about Winston, either out of strategy or raw honesty. Bruce Arians highlights the good and bad with equal fervor any time he addresses a hot mic. And there were whispers out of the combine last week that the Bucs took the same stance in private conversations with people around the league.
This star-filled quarterback free-agent class has its flaws. Tom Brady approaches age 43, Philip Rivers was nearly benched in Los Angeles, Teddy Bridgewater is pegged as a system guy, Andy Dalton and Nick Foles are tradeable, Marcus Mariota ran out of steam in Tennessee.
And Winston stands alone, a 26-year-old who's about to find out what 5,109 yards, 33 touchdowns, 30 interceptions and an 84.3 passer rating are really worth.
What we know
As we understand it, there are at least four key layers to this:
Winston entered the process expecting a franchise tag ($26.9 million) or transition tag ($24.4 million), but the Bucs have not committed to either, and if Winston becomes available, he feels strongly about his market. In fact, he's almost welcoming the chance.
The Bucs are playing coy because they are vetting the quarterback market, including veterans Brady and Rivers, knowing they have until March 12 (the franchise tag deadline) at the earliest before having to make a decision.
The looming collective bargaining agreement -- which could be renewed before free agency begins March 18 -- affects the Bucs, who, like the other NFL teams, can tag only one player once the new deal passes. Right now, they can use the franchise and transition tags as part of an uncapped year -- theoretically, the franchise tag for pass-rusher Shaq Barrett and transition tag for Winston -- but that might only last for a week or two. Once the new deal goes through, one tag fits all. As a result, Tampa is staying patient. If it had to pick one player to tag right now, that player would probably be Barrett, whose 19.5 sacks led the NFL last season.
Doing a short-term deal with Winston would probably cost, at the very least, $20 million per year. And possibly more. "The Bucs would be betting on Arians to bring out the best in him," an NFC exec said. "Jameis could be his masterpiece."
Why Tampa Bay is waffling
Because the Bucs have been on the JameisCoaster for five years now. The highs are incredibly thrilling. The lows make you want to get off, usually about 10 seconds into the ride.
The strong sense from the combine is that the Bucs simply have some trust issues with Winston, who will counter an MVP-type play with a pick-six in the same series. The Bucs have wanted to see the Winston project through but are taking a hard look at whether another option makes them better.
Tampa believes it can contend right now. It is really high on the roster, and has two elite receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Repeating the 7-9 performance from a year ago won't work. Last year, executives and coaches were left banging tables or quietly seething from the press box after each pick-six. They'd like to avoid that scenario in 2020.
That's why, as one NFL offensive coordinator put it, the Bucs will re-sign Winston "only if they can't get Rivers. I think [Arians] likes Rivers, and the chance to recreate the Carson Palmer magic. They have weapons."
And some of those weapons, despite showing Winston support publicly, might welcome a quarterback with Rivers' pedigree. Winston's leadership has come into question in the past.
And despite Winston's best efforts to curb character concerns, some teams might not be willing to forget the sexual assault allegation from Florida State or the three-game suspension in 2018 for violation of the league's substance abuse policy after a female Uber driver accused him of groping her in Scottsdale, Arizona.
The pros of keeping Winston
Tampa is still, by a fairly wide margin, his best fit as a player, and his style of play suits Arians' personality. Winston has the big arm to go vertical, which Arians loves. He's unafraid to make mistakes, obviously.
And the Bucs can convince themselves Winston will reduce the mistakes, as his previous high for interceptions in a season was 18. Railing on Winston's 30 picks is a layup, but Arians' attack-at-all-costs offensive approach can't be discounted here, and the numbers back that up.
Carson Palmer threw a career-high 22 interceptions in 2013, his first year in Arians' offense. He never sniffed that number again as Arians and Palmer made multiple playoff pushes in Arizona.
As a rookie in 2012, Andrew Luck threw 22 picks with Arians calling plays. He never hit that number again.
The aberration is Ben Roethlisberger, who averaged 40 passing attempts per interception during a five-season stretch with Arians, slightly better than his career average of 37.8.
"Anybody in that offense takes on high levels of risk," one AFC personnel evaluator said. "Bruce wants his quarterback to stand in that pocket and deliver on difficult throws, and most of the time the results are great, but there are going to be head-scratchers. Tampa knows that."
There's also a simple question that's yet to be answered: Can the Bucs do better? Tampa isn't considered the favorite for Brady, and Rivers' lack of mobility is a major concern. Neither quarterback was as prolific as Winston in 2020.
The potential fits
A quick sampling of NFL sources reveals two potential landing spots for Winston based on a football fit:
Los Angeles Chargers: They have a true No. 1 receiver in Keenan Allen, the vertical threat in Mike Williams and the sure-handed tight end in Hunter Henry, who might get the franchise tag. Winston didn't always have a steady running game in Tampa, and the Chargers might rely more heavily on do-it-all back Austin Ekeler in the post-Rivers era.
But many around the league suspect the Chargers are content rolling with Tyrod Taylor and taking a quarterback with the sixth overall pick -- or swinging big for Brady.
This is a roster that needs to upgrade a few spots but is largely ready to win games now. Coach Anthony Lynn has made it clear he wants a quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over, which rules Winston out on paper, but a different system that asks him to assume less risk could rejuvenate him.
The Chargers have unique off-field challenges. They rank last in the league in attendance by a wide margin. After two seasons in a Los Angeles soccer stadium they couldn't fill, they will share SoFi Stadium with the Rams in 2020. Pushing for Brady makes sense for ticket sales alone. Winston doesn't have the same appeal, but he can stretch the field. Some NFL evaluators believe the Chargers will be tempted to select Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert at No. 6.
Tennessee Titans: Tennessee is trying to sort out Ryan Tannehill's future. The word out of the combine was that Tannehill wants huge money -- possibly up to $30 million per year -- after leading the league in passer rating last season. The Titans value Tannehill and want him back, but also are believed to be in the running for Brady. If neither option pans out, Winston could be a fallback option to utilize the play-action game, athletic tight ends and emerging receiver A.J. Brown.
The franchise tag allows the Titans to keep Tannehill or Derrick Henry, whose tag is far less costly, at $12.8 million. Keeping Henry on a one-year pact rewards Tennessee's workhorse back without assuming the risk of giving a tailback long-term money. Teams are nervous about that after the New York Jets' remorse with the Le'Veon Bell deal, Todd Gurley's knee issues since signing his Rams extension and the Arizona Cardinals benching David Johnson two years into a $39 million deal.
Short of Brady, the Titans want a quarterback who can make a few big plays every game but doesn't have to throw 40 times to win. Tannehill has shown he can handle that. But the Titans don't want to pay an exorbitant amount for a player whose responsibilities they limit.
With Winston, offensive coordinator Arthur Smith can do the same for less cost, and lean heavily on Henry.
"If Winston lets teammates help him and doesn't try to win the game by himself, he can be a very capable quarterback in those offenses," an AFC exec said.
Bucs' roster outlook
The Bucs have done a sound job of maintaining a healthy cap -- entering free agency with $83,547,573 in space -- with minimal dead money and several key players under contract.
But that number will reduce in a hurry based on plans for this year and next. The team has made clear in its meetings at the combine that it's all-in on keeping the defense intact. That means paying Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and possibly Ndamukong Suh now, and the team has expressed interest in re-signing linebacker Lavonte David to a new deal this offseason, according to a source. He has one year left on his contract.
That doesn't account for Godwin. He's considered by some to be a top-10 receiver, and top-10 guys get $20 million a year now. Both sides are in no rush on a Godwin deal, though.
The Bucs have saved for this moment, and they should escape the offseason with cap space to spare. But they'll probably need to structure these deals with escape clauses after two or three years to avoid a future money crunch.
The verdict
There are too many variables to definitively say where Winston ends up. The entire NFL universe is waiting on Brady. Once he decides, the dominoes will fall.
But there's still a reasonable chance Winston plays a sixth season in Tampa if the free-agent dominoes don't fall the Bucs' way.
Multiple league sources expect Tampa to eventually land back on Winston. "They'll explore their ability to replace him, but won't be able to," one NFC exec said.