NFL free agency is consumerism at its best, and as with all such enterprises, shopping around is critical because the best value comes not from being first, or spending the most money, but from finding the best player at the lowest price.
Look no further than the league's 2019 sack leader, Shaquil Barrett. After accumulating 14 sacks in four seasons as a part-time player with the Broncos, Barrett signed on with the Buccaneers ahead of last season for one year at $4 million, plus incentives. He'd go on to post 19.5 sacks as one of best signings of the 2019 offseason. The best signings aren't always the big names.
With that in mind, Pro Football Focus looks at each position and highlights the most overrated and underrated players heading into 2020 free agency. All stats are from PFF, which grades every player in every game.
Jump to:
QB | RB | WR | TE | OL
EDGE | LB | DB
QUARTERBACK
Overrated: Philip Rivers
Navigating the quarterback market in free agency is always tricky, since it's unlikely that several of the top QBs will actually hit the open market, but Rivers seems to be among the most coveted. At his best, Rivers has been among the top quarterbacks in the NFL, but he is coming off a season in which he posted an overall PFF grade of just 74.3, the 17th-best mark in the league. The 2020 season will see him turn 39, and Rivers has already started to show signs of decline, which makes the Chargers lifer a risky acquisition.
Underrated: Case Keenum
Such is the state of the quarterback-driven NFL that none of the available starting-caliber players will truly be underrated. But you could find bargains once you get to the players who will be content with a backup role. Keenum, who spent 2019 with the Redskins, has plenty of poor play on his résumé but is just two seasons removed from an overall PFF grade of 81.4 and a trip to the NFC Championship Game. He may have exhausted starting opportunities but has real value as a backup, and a team wouldn't have to break the bank to acquire his services.
RUNNING BACK
Overrated: Derrick Henry
Henry is a great running back, but the PFF data has shown that running backs are far more a product of their environment than of their ability to generate yardage -- even those who eclipse 1,500 yards, as Henry did with the Titans last season. So any big-money contract sent his way will just not prove to be good value. Look at the recent history of big deals handed to backs and ask how many of those teams would rather turn back time and undo the deal.
Underrated: Kenyan Drake
Drake has been an underappreciated player throughout his NFL career, and he shined in the second half of 2019 once he joined the Cardinals. He has yet to be given more than 200 carries in a season but has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over his career, 3.1 of which have come after contact. He has broken at least 28 tackles in each of his past three seasons and is a capable receiver on top of that rushing skill. If you're going to invest in a free-agent back, get one who is inexpensive yet capable.
WIDE RECEIVER
Overrated: Amari Cooper
Just as Henry is a fantastic tailback, Cooper is an excellent receiver and was a big piece of the Cowboys' offense. He is coming off the best-graded season of his career, and he will be just 26 years old next season. In theory, he is the perfect free-agent target for a receiver-needy team. But he never quite seems to put it all together as consistently as the very best receivers in the game. The 2019 campaign marked the first season that he finished with a top-10 PFF grade, and even then, he still finished ninth. Cooper probably will want a market-defining deal at the position, but over the course of a whole season, he hasn't played like he deserves one in the same way that others have.
Underrated: Breshad Perriman
In the last few games of Tampa Bay's 2019 season, the former first-round draft bust flashed the potential that made him such an enticing prospect. Thrust into the starting lineup because of injuries, Perriman recorded 100-yard games in the final three outings, and he didn't drop a single pass in any one of them. He still represents a long shot, but he is also just 26 years old and could be signed for a bargain price because of his career history to date.
TIGHT END
Overrated: Austin Hooper
Hooper notched 787 receiving yards last season with Atlanta, and while his overall PFF grade of 78.3 was certainly respectable, there is cause for concern in how that grade was produced. Much of his production came through simply taking what defenses gave him, but when he was targeted against single coverage, his grade dropped to just 66.5, almost 30 points lower than the league's better receiving tight ends.
Underrated: Hunter Henry
Injuries have slowed Henry, and though he put up career highs in targets, receptions and yards in 2019, it was a significantly less efficient year than either of his first two seasons. He didn't look like quite the same dynamic player he did before injuries, and he wasn't particularly helped by Rivers' decline with the Chargers. If Henry can get back to his best, he has the potential to be one of the game's best. But the time to get him on a cheaper contract is now.
OFFENSIVE LINE
Overrated: Brandon Scherff
Scherff has always been a good-not-great player at the NFL level, but it takes a lot for teams to move beyond the top-five-pick label, no matter how long ago that player's draft happened. Scherff gave up just one sack and 10 total pressures this past season in Washington, but he was penalized nine times. His overall PFF grade of 75.0 was good enough for seventh among guards league-wide. While Scherff is undoubtedly a fine player, he has rarely looked like a truly elite player at the position and might not be entirely worth the big-money deal he'll command.
Underrated: Stefen Wisniewski
Wisniewski has been underrated for his entire career. All he does is come into the starting lineup for teams and perform at a solid level -- and he often outperforms the player he replaced. He has now played for four different teams and started on two Super Bowl-winning offensive lines (earning grades above 65.0 in each game) despite having been a backup to start both seasons. He will assuredly be brought in by a team needing depth along the line once again, as he was with Kansas City, but he could easily start for several clubs.
EDGE RUSHER
Overrated: Jadeveon Clowney
Clowney wants to be the highest-paid edge rusher in the league, but he has never topped 65 total pressures over a season in his NFL career. Fourteen different edge rushers topped 65 in 2019 alone, and the league leader, Za'Darius Smith, had 93. Clowney's run defense is arguably better than his pass rush, but even that is inconsistent, as his run defense grade of 77.4 ranked just 14th among all edge rushers last season in Seattle. And that's just one year after he earned a second-ranked mark of 91.0. Clowney can be a dominant force but not across 16 games.
Underrated: Dante Fowler Jr.
This crop of free-agent edge rushers is far more stocked with overrated players than value finds, but if there's one who qualifies as underrated, it would be the Rams' Fowler. He has quietly improved his overall PFF grade in each of the past two seasons. This past year, he not only posted a career high in sacks but also notched 21 more total pressures (67) than in any other season of his career.
INTERIOR DEFENSIVE LINEMAN
Overrated: Jordan Phillips
Some will point to Phillips' 9.5 sacks as evidence of solid pass-rush skills for a man of his size (341 pounds), but those sacks represent 10 of just 25 total pressures over the season. And frankly, if you run through Buffalo's tape and look at them, you will be far from impressed by those sacks. Phillips has never earned an overall PFF grade north of 60.0 for a season, and he has yet to clear 30 total pressures over 16 games.
Underrated: D.J. Reader
By contrast, Reader stepped into an expanded role in 2019 and showed he could be more than just a big run-stuffer at north of 340 pounds for Houston. Reader played more pass-rushing snaps than ever before and responded by notching 35 total pressures, 11 more than his previous career high. Reader also made more plays overall. He bettered his previous career high in defensive stops by nine and earned the best PFF grade of his career (85.5).
LINEBACKER
Overrated: Jon Bostic
We're slowly moving away from surface-level box-score analysis in the NFL. However, it can still have an irresistible allure, and a linebacker registering 100-plus tackles will entice some. But even when you use the "official numbers," you'll see that a large number of those tackles were assists, and that alone should make you wonder about the accuracy of that data. That's precisely the case with the Redskins' Bostic in 2019. He took the opposing ball carrier to the ground 101 times last season, but 24 of those were charted as an "assisted tackle" in our grading system. He also missed 11 attempts and earned a PFF run-defense grade of only 50.7.
Underrated: Cory Littleton
Over the past couple of seasons, Littleton has been one of the best coverage linebackers in the game. Only Lavonte David and Luke Kuechly had a higher PFF coverage grade than Littleton's 90.1 over the past two seasons. And in that span, he has notched 16 forced incompletions, the third-best figure among all linebackers. The Rams' Littleton carved a niche as a coverage specialist at a time when that has never been more valuable in the NFL.
CORNERBACK
Overrated: Bradley Roby
A year ago, Roby took a one-year deal with the Texans in an attempt to have a strong season and return to free agency with a stronger market for his services. He will be only 28 years old next season, but his performance in 2019 was barely better than the previous year's, and it was short of his best play that came in 2017. That season's grade was largely built on an impressive number of pass breakups (15). In the two years since, he has tallied just 16 across more than double the amount of targets.
Underrated: Byron Jones
Cornerbacks who don't come down with interceptions will always be underrated, especially by teams that view dropped picks as missed opportunities rather than good coverage plays. Jones, who has spent all five years of his career in Dallas, has just two interceptions, and none in the past two seasons. But over that span, he does have the seventh-best PFF coverage grade (85.1) among all corners and 28 forced incompletions (tied for eighth).
SAFETY
Overrated: Jimmie Ward
Ward is coming off a career year as part of a transformed 49ers defense. He was a legitimate playmaker this past season despite not making an interception, registering a 30-point jump in overall PFF grade from his previous two seasons. A former first-round pick, Ward clearly has talent, but paying for players coming off such an outlier contract year is risky at best.
Underrated: Anthony Harris
You could make the argument that the same is true for Harris, but while Harris' 2019 was by far the best season of his career, he has consistently graded well any time he has seen the field for the Vikings. He was finally rewarded with a chance to start all season last year, and he finished with the best PFF coverage grade (91.6) among all safeties. He tallied six interceptions and five pass breakups in the regular season before picking off Drew Brees in the postseason.