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          How the 49ers, Chiefs win Super Bowl LIV: Game plan keys, X factors

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          Orlovsky: Mahomes needs 'Hall of Fame-worthy' performance (1:14)

          Dan Orlovsky breaks down what Patrick Mahomes needs to do in order to lead the Chiefs past the 49ers in the Super Bowl. (1:14)

          • Matt BowenJan 30, 2020, 07:20 AM ET
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              Matt Bowen is a fantasy football and NFL writer for ESPN. He joined ESPN in 2015, writes regularly for ESPN+ and spent multiple years on "NFL Matchup." After graduating from the University of Iowa, Matt played safety in the NFL for St. Louis, Green Bay, Washington and Buffalo over seven seasons.
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          Super Bowl LIV will feature two of the more innovative coaches in football in Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan. To win on Sunday, each will have to scheme to his team's strengths and exploit the weaknesses of his opponent.

          Can the San Francisco 49ers find a way to slow quarterback Patrick Mahomes in their zone coverage looks? How can they use pre-snap movement to continue their run-game domination? And will the Kansas City Chiefs find a way to take Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo out of his comfort zone?

          Here are three game plan keys -- and a few additional notes -- for both the 49ers and Chiefs that can create matchup edges and a path to victory. We also pick out an impact X factor for each team. Let's start the scheming with the NFC champ 49ers.

          Jump to: 49ers | Chiefs

          SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

          1. Utilize motion and shifts to create run game advantages

          Why it's important: Including the postseason, the 49ers have used pre-snap motion/shifts on a league-leading 71% of offensive snaps. It allows Shanahan to scheme leverage, blocking angles and numbers at the point of attack in the run game on offense.

          How it works: Shanahan can create advantages in the run game versus Kansas City's four-man fronts using both pre- and post-snap movement. This creates situations where the 49ers get added numbers with fullback Kyle Juszczyk and tight end George Kittle, while also manipulating defenders off jet and wide receiver reverse motion. The key here is Shanahan's ability to scheme both leverage and angles on zone and gap (power) runs.

          Here's an example on a counter scheme with wide receiver reverse motion, shown here with NFL Next Gen Stats animation. In the Week 3 matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Niners widen the edge defenders and create a run lane for running back Raheem Mostert.

          Given the amount of pre-snap movement we see from Shanahan's offense, plus the backfield misdirection that taxes the eyes of second-level defenders, the 49ers can make this a line-of-scrimmage game versus the Chiefs. And that has been the script for San Francisco during their postseason run.

          2. Win with the pass rush and a zone-heavy game plan versus Mahomes

          Why it's important: With a pass rush that can absolutely wreck the pocket and get home to the quarterback, the 49ers have played zone coverage 64% of the time this season. And they have allowed a league-low 5.9 yards per pass attempt in zone.

          How it works: It has to start up front with the 49ers' pass rush ability on the defensive line -- and you need that if you want to play heavy zone coverage given the movement skills and second-reaction ability of Mahomes. As we broke down previously on ESPN's NFL Matchup, San Francisco will scheme on the defensive line using multiple alignments, fronts and twist stunts to create both favorable one-on-ones and open rush lanes. Get those advantageous matchups for Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner.

          With that pass rushing talent, I would look for the 49ers to continue their zone-heavy approach in this one, playing both Cover 3 and split-safety coverages. That will allow San Francisco to top the inside verticals and cut crossers/over routes, while also tightening the throwing windows for Mahomes.

          3. Feature first-down play-action throws with Garoppolo

          Why it's important: Garoppolo led all quarterbacks during the regular season with 1,131 yards passing on first-down play-action throws, averaging 12.7 yards per attempt. This is where Shanahan can dial up open windows and get his quarterback into a quick rhythm after Garoppolo threw just eight passes in the NFC Championship Game.

          How it works: Mesh the same misdirection and pre-snap movement we discussed above with the pass game. By grabbing the eyes of defenders and using false run indicators, Shanahan can pull linebackers downhill to open up the middle of the field, while occupying secondary defenders to create coverage voids -- and defined reads -- for Garoppolo to target Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders.

          San Francisco did just that versus the Los Angeles Rams in Week 16, broken down here by Greg Cosell on NFL Matchup. The 49ers get downhill run action, jet motion and Kittle on a crosser. There's your void and your run-after-the-catch opportunity.

          Given the multiplicity of the Chiefs' defense under coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, Shanahan will need both zone and man beaters in his passing game script. But the plan won't change with Garoppolo: Put him in a position to identify his reads and deliver the ball to the windows Shanahan can create on first-down play-action throws.

          Quick hitters for the 49ers

          • Getting third-down pressure: The 49ers are not a heavy pressure team, showing a blitz rate of just 14.1% on first and second down. However, that blitz rate jumps to 29.3% on third downs. This is when San Francisco will heat up the pocket out of five-man fronts, with linebacker Fred Warner walked up to the line of scrimmage, to disguise both zone and man pressure. And I'm betting that Mahomes sees this look on Sunday.

          • Figuring out the right man-coverage matchups: The 49ers will play man coverage (36% of opponent dropbacks this season), but I don't love the matchups versus Kansas City. It starts with Travis Kelce. Given his formation flexibility and route-running traits, the 49ers will have problems checking the Chiefs tight end. I would look at a combo of Warner and safety Jimmie Ward here -- with Richard Sherman possibly in the mix, too.

          • Creating explosive play opportunities for Juszczyk: The 49ers can script a downfield shot to Juszczyk off play-action with the fullback releasing from the backfield. That can put Garoppolo in a position to target Juszczyk on a wheel route or a throwback concept that goes opposite the play-side flow.

          • Playing fundamental football in zone coverage: For all the talk about scheme and matchups in this Super Bowl, we can't forget about the base fundamentals in zone coverage. It's angles to the ball and tackling here. If you miss tackles versus the speed of Kansas City on a simple curl or slant route, it's time to strike up the band.

          San Francisco X factor: Deebo Samuel, WR

          During the regular season, Samuel averaged 8.1 yards after the catch. He's a sudden mover with the physical traits to finish in the open field. And that translates to the run game, where Shanahan will set up Samuel off jet and reverse schemes to get him to the edge. Given the amount of middle-of-the-field throws in this offense -- plus the smoke screens, bubbles and the touches for Samuel as a runner -- the rookie wide receiver could provide an impact as an explosive play threat in Super Bowl LIV.

          KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

          1. Scheme the 49ers' zone coverages out of 3x1 sets

          Why it's important: With the expectation that the 49ers go zone-heavy, the Chiefs can scheme Cover 3 and split-safety beaters out of 3x1 sets -- three pass-catchers on one side of the field and one on the other -- to create downfield coverage voids for Mahomes, who registered a QBR of 99.3 versus zone coverage this season.

          How it works: Working out of 3x1 sets, Reid can scheme coverage voids versus the 49ers' zone looks using over routes, crossers and flood concepts that overload one side of the field. With Kelce aligned as the backside X receiver opposite of trips, Reid can utilize his tight end to occupy cornerbacks in Cover 3 or as a deep target versus split-safety coverage, as he did earlier this season against the Los Angeles Chargers.

          Given the track speed that Kansas City has at wide receiver in Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson, Reid can create space versus zone for Mahomes to throw the deep crossers or read high-to-low on leveled flood concepts.

          2. 'Rob' the middle of the field with safety Tyrann Mathieu

          Why it's important: During the regular season, Garoppolo completed 72% of his throws between the numbers, with an average of 9.2 yards per attempt. The Chiefs must close the throwing windows in the middle of the field with Mathieu playing a "robber" technique.

          How it works: The Chiefs can use Mathieu's natural playmaking traits and high-level football IQ here. Look at how the Chiefs get to Cover 2, with the secondary spinning post-snap and Mathieu playing as the middle-hole defender. Or you can start in a split-safety look and roll Mathieu down to the weak side as the robber in single-high coverage to cut crossers. Here's an example from the Chiefs' win over the Baltimore Ravens earlier in the season, via NFL Next Gen Stats animation.

          Mathieu rolls down at the snap and jumps the underneath throw from quarterback Lamar Jackson. This is the same idea I have for Mathieu in Super Bowl LIV. He needs to make impact plays, and you do that versus the 49ers by setting some traps for Garoppolo on throws inside the numbers.

          3. Use base personnel versus the 49ers' run game

          Why it's important: The 49ers led the NFL in 21 personnel snaps this season (2 RB, 1 TE) and averaged 5.7 yards per carry. In one of the game's biggest matchups, the Chiefs have to limit the run game production out of their base 4-3 front.

          How it works: Unlike the game plan we saw from the Packers' defense in the NFC title game, which leaned on sub-packaged personnel and five-man fronts, I believe Spagnuolo will play the run with his base 4-3 personnel on the field. The Chiefs need linebackers Anthony Hitchens, Reggie Ragland and Damien Wilson to play downhill versus outside zone. You set the edges here, utilize Mathieu and Daniel Sorensen as extra box defenders and bump that snap count up for defensive tackle Chris Jones as an early-down run defender.

          As I mentioned, the 49ers will make this a line-of-scrimmage game if you let them. This is a great test for the Kansas City defense. You can't get moved off the ball on Sunday.

          Quick hitters for the Chiefs

          • Using running back Damien Williams in the screen game: Don't forget about Williams' impact in Reid's screen game, especially when the Chiefs have the ball in the high red zone (10- to 20-yard line). This is where Reid can use misdirection (jet) to get Williams loose in the open field with blockers out in front.

          • Letting Mahomes cut up zone coverage: In addition to the 99.3 QBR versus zone coverage, Mahomes also completed 74% of his passes with 9.4 yards per attempt and 14 touchdowns against zone this season. Give him time, and Mahomes can carve up zone schemes.

          • Scheming early-down RPOs: Mahomes can attack inside throwing windows off run-pass options. Pair the stretch/zone-run game with the quick pop pass or slant to pepper the voids in the 49ers' zone coverage.

          • Reviewing the 2018 tape: Why would I look at the Chiefs' 38-27 win over the 49ers in Week 3 last year? Because coaches game plan for coaches. And in that matchup, the 49ers played zone 67.5% of the time. Break it down by scheme, and the 49ers were heavy Cover 3, playing three-deep zone 42.5% of the time. In my opinion, we might see more split-safety zone on Sunday.

          Kansas City X factor: Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher, OT

          The 49ers will scheme pass rush matchups to occupy interior blockers while getting those one-on-ones on the edge. That's why I'm looking at the offensive tackles for Kansas City here. Can both Schwartz and Fisher hold up versus the speed, power and technique of Bosa, Ford, Armstead and Buckner? If they can win their one-on-ones and give Mahomes time in the pocket, I think the Chiefs leave Miami as Super Bowl LIV champs.