Editor's note: This story was originally published in December 2019.
We're down to the final days in 2019, so it's time to identify the best teams and players of the past decade using Football Outsiders metrics: DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) for teams and DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) for players.
DVOA measures success on each play based on down and distance, then compares that to an NFL average baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. (You can read more of the details here.) It's built to balance a measurement of how well a team has played in the past with a forecast of how well a team will play in the future. Ratings each year are normalized, accounting for changes in the NFL's offensive environment. Even over just the past decade, the NFL has seen offense increase from 5.33 net yards per play in 2010 to 5.49 net yards in 2019. (That's down from last year's peak of 5.60 net yards per play.)
You can find DVOA stats for every season going back to 1985 on the stats pages at Football Outsiders, but the team ratings we run here will be a bit different. Our best of the decade team ratings account for postseason performance, boosting teams that went on strong championship runs and lowering teams that dominated the regular season only to trip over their own feet in the playoffs. This is an updated version of a piece that ran during the 2019 season, and 2019 teams are now updated through the playoffs.
It's important to remember that DVOA is measuring efficiency on a per-play basis, rather than looking at top-line wins and losses. And while we are including playoff performance here, it doesn't render the regular season moot. So we have a lot of teams ranked higher than teams that beat them in the postseason, and our top 10 overall list for this decade includes only one Super Bowl champion. Often, winning a Super Bowl is about getting hot at the right time rather than dominating the league over the course of the entire season.
Note: 0 percent DVOA represents the league average, a team with a +30 percent mark rated 30 percent better than an average unit. Also, stats other than total DVOA for each unit represent the regular season only unless noted.
Best overall
10. 2015 Carolina Panthers (+30.8%)
This list originally included the 2019 New England Patriots when it ran after Week 15, but with a poor performance against Miami in Week 17, the Patriots dropped off and the 2015 Panthers replaced them. This team was second in the league on defense and eighth on offense, losing only one game during the regular season.
9. 2014 Seattle Seahawks (+31.1%)
This is the first of four Seattle teams to appear in our top 10 for the decade, part of the four-year Seattle "DVOA dynasty." From 2012 to 2015, the Seahawks finished No. 1 in our regular-season ratings each year, although they only won the Super Bowl in 2013. This 2014 team finished fifth in the league in offense and led the league on defense for the second straight season but wasn't as good on special teams as the other DVOA dynasty Seahawks squads.
8. 2010 Pittsburgh Steelers (+32.8%)
The 2010 Steelers combined the best defense in the league with the No. 5 offense, going 12-4 against a top-10 difficult schedule. The Steelers didn't commit more than two turnovers in any game until they committed three in a narrow 31-25 Super Bowl loss. The Green Bay team that went just 10-6 in the regular season but beat Pittsburgh in that Super Bowl was ranked fourth in the 2010 regular season and has the No. 26 rating for this decade.
7. 2012 New England Patriots (+34.8%)
6. 2012 Denver Broncos (+34.9%)
It's not like the Baltimore Ravens had a bad team in 2012 -- they ranked eighth overall in DVOA -- but going on the road to beat Denver and New England was a phenomenal pair of back-to-back upsets. The Patriots combined the best offense of 2012 with top-five special teams and an average defense. The Broncos combined the second-best offense of 2012 with top-five defense and average special teams.
5. 2019 Baltimore Ravens (+36.7%)
The Ravens finished the season No. 1 in the league on offense and No. 4 on defense, as well as No. 9 on special teams. Fans may not realize just how good the Ravens are historically. Baltimore ended up as the No. 7 best team we had ever tracked in the regular season, going back to 1985. The teams ahead of them: the 1991 Redskins, 2007 Patriots, 1985 Bears, 1987 49ers (strike games excluded), 2010 Patriots, and 1996 Packers.
However, the Ravens played very poorly in their playoff loss to Tennessee and fall all the way from No. 1 to No. 5 this decade once we add playoff performance to regular-season performance.
4. 2012 Seattle Seahawks (+36.9%)
This was the first year of Seattle's DVOA dynasty: four straight years finishing the regular season No. 1 in total team efficiency. The Seahawks ranked fourth on offense, second on defense, and third on special teams. However, they went 11-5, partly because they played the fourth-hardest schedule in the NFL and partly because they were 5-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less. That record sent them on the road for the playoffs, and they lost 30-28 in Atlanta.
3. 2015 Seattle Seahawks (+37.8%)
The Seahawks led the NFL in DVOA in 2015 despite finishing the season 10-6. They were just 2-5 in regular-season games decided by a touchdown or less, including two overtime losses. The Seahawks started the 2015 season 2-4 and then slowly rose through the DVOA ranks until they were back on top at the end of the year. Seattle barely passed Cincinnati to rank No. 1 on offense when the Bengals declined after Andy Dalton's injury. The Seahawks also were No. 4 on defense and No. 3 on special teams. They lost at Carolina in the divisional round, 31-24.
The 2015 Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos are only 37th on this list, even adding on playoff performance, because they were so poor on offense during the regular season. The NFC Champion Panthers rank 11th.
2. 2010 New England Patriots (+40.6%)
Based on the regular season alone, the 2010 Patriots were the No. 5 team in DVOA history and the best team of this decade. Their offense ranks No. 2 all-time, and it was so powerful that the Patriots rank this high despite ranking 21st on defense in 2010. The Patriots were absurdly hot entering the postseason after winning their final five games by the combined score of 184-47. Then, somehow, they lost 28-21 at home to the New York Jets, a team they had defeated 45-3 just six weeks earlier. It was one of the greatest upsets in NFL history.
Where do the three Super Bowl champion Patriots teams of the last decade rank on this list? The 2016 Patriots led the league in DVOA that season but rank No. 20 for the decade. The 2014 Patriots ranked fourth during the regular season and No. 27 for the decade. The 2018 Patriots had problems through much of the regular season -- remember, they only went 11-5 and lost to inferior teams such as Detroit and Miami -- so they only rank No. 55 for the decade, even after adding in their postseason performance. It's ironic that, except for 2004, the Patriots' best regular-season teams are not the Patriots teams that won Super Bowls.
1. 2013 Seattle Seahawks (+43.2%)
The 2013 Seahawks featured the No. 10 best defense in DVOA history (including playoffs). They also ranked seventh on offense and fifth on special teams for the regular season. Seattle's three losses all came by a touchdown or less, and their 43-8 Super Bowl blowout of Denver ranks as one of the 20 best single-game performances in DVOA history.
Bottom five
5. 2010 Arizona Cardinals (-37.1%)
4. 2019 Miami Dolphins (-37.4%)
3. 2013 Jacksonville Jaguars (-38.2%)
2. 2012 Kansas City Chiefs (-40.1%)
1. 2018 Arizona Cardinals (-40.7%)
Best offenses
10. 2016 Atlanta Falcons (+27.2%)
Matt Ryan's MVP season is even more impressive when you consider that the Falcons' offensive schedule ranked fourth during the 2016 regular season. Nine of their 16 games came against teams ranked 11th or higher in pass defense DVOA.
9. 2019 Kansas City Chiefs (+27.6%)
When we originally ran this article during the season, the 2019 Ravens were here. However, the Ravens drop to No. 12 because of their poor playoff performance against Tennessee, and Kansas City moves into the decade's top 10 because of their strong playoff performances including a 51-point surge against Houston in the divisional round. The 2019 Chiefs are the only team among the top 20 offenses of the decade that had negative value running the ball. Take out the three Matt Moore games, and Kansas City would have an offensive DVOA of +29.3%, which would still rank ninth for the decade.
8. 2013 Denver Broncos (+31.0%)
Peyton Manning blew away the NFL record with 55 passing touchdowns, which is how the Broncos rank so high despite a running game that was good not great (10th in DVOA). This Broncos team has the No. 7 best passing DVOA ever despite getting penalized for an easy schedule (30th that season). That schedule is also why the Broncos don't rank higher despite holding the NFL record with 606 points scored.
7. 2011 Green Bay Packers (+31.4%)
This was Aaron Rodgers' greatest season, though it's a bit tarnished by a 37-20 upset loss to the Giants in the divisional round. If we only look at the regular season, the 2011 Packers are the No. 6 offense in DVOA history and are tied with the 2004 Colts as the No. 2 passing offense.
6. 2012 New England Patriots (+31.8%)
The 2012 Patriots led the league in points scored despite facing one of the league's 10 hardest defensive schedules. They scored at least 40 points five times in the regular season, then a sixth time against Houston in the playoffs, but Baltimore limited them to a season-low 13 points to win the AFC Championship Game in Foxborough.
5. 2017 New England Patriots (+32.2%)
Here's another well-balanced Patriots offense, first in passing DVOA and third in rushing DVOA. Dion Lewis gained 5.0 yards per carry; Todd Gurley II, Le'Veon Bell, and rookie Kareem Hunt may have gained a lot more yardage, but Lewis led the league in rushing DYAR. Rob Gronkowski led all tight ends in DYAR. Brandin Cooks, in his one year with the Patriots, had 1,082 receiving yards with seven touchdowns.
4. 2018 Kansas City Chiefs (+32.2%)
The Chiefs' rating is somewhat blunted by just how strong offense was across the league as a whole in 2018: an all-time high league completion rate of 64.9% and a record 7.37 yards per pass attempt. But Kansas City's 6.84 net yards per play was the third highest in NFL history behind just the 2000 Rams and the 1954 Rams. And only two teams scored more than Kansas City's 565 points: the 2013 Broncos and the 2007 Patriots.
3. 2011 New England Patriots (+32.6%)
In 2011, Rob Gronkowski had the greatest season by a tight end in NFL history: 1,329 yards and 18 touchdowns with a 73% catch rate. The rest of the Patriots offense wasn't shabby either; Tom Brady and Wes Welker each finished third at their positions in DYAR, while BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Stevan Ridley, and Danny Woodhead combined to put the Patriots fourth in rushing DVOA. All this offense was enough to lift the Patriots to a 13-3 record and the Super Bowl despite ranking a dismal 30th in defensive DVOA.
2. 2011 New Orleans Saints (+35.3%)
The 2011 season saw three offenses play at a historic level, but the Saints were more balanced than the Packers or Patriots, ranking third passing and second rushing. Four different backs had at least 75 carries, but the standouts were Pierre Thomas (5.1 yards per carry) and Darren Sproles (6.9 yards per carry). Sproles led all running backs in receiving DYAR and caught 86 passes for 710 yards and seven touchdowns. This was also a big season for Marques Colston (sixth in DYAR among wide receivers) and Jimmy Graham (second among tight ends).
1. 2010 New England Patriots (+39.4%)
Only the New England Patriots could put a historically potent offense on the field during what was effectively a transition year. The Patriots traded one of the greatest receivers in NFL history, Randy Moss, just four games into the season. They rebuilt the offense around two-tight end sets featuring rookies Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and Brady threw 36 touchdowns with just four interceptions. The Patriots also put together a phenomenal running game with BenJarvus Green-Ellis averaging 4.4 yards per carry and Danny Woodhead averaging 5.6 yards per carry. In the 35-year history of our DVOA ratings, the only offense that comes out better belongs to the 2007 Patriots and their perfect regular season.
The 2010 Patriots led the league in scoring despite trading away Moss -- but what really drives the high DVOA rating of this season is that the Patriots did it while playing the toughest schedule of opposing defenses in the league. Including the upset playoff loss to the Jets, the Patriots had to play 10 of 17 games against teams that ranked ninth or better in defensive DVOA.
Bottom five
5. 2012 Arizona Cardinals (-30.9%)
4. 2010 Arizona Cardinals (-35.6%)
3. 2010 Carolina Panthers (-35.8%)
2. 2016 Los Angeles Rams (-37.8%)
1. 2018 Arizona Cardinals (-41.1%)
Best defenses
Note: Defensive DVOA is better when it is negative, because it represents preventing your opponent from scoring or gaining yardage.
10. 2011 Baltimore Ravens (-18.6%)
The Ravens had five of the top 12 defensive seasons in the previous decade, and this was sort of the last gasp of that defensive core. (I say "sort of" because these players won the Super Bowl the next year even though they ranked 19th in defensive DVOA for the 2012 regular season.) Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs were All-Pro, and Ed Reed and Ray Lewis joined them in the Pro Bowl.
9. 2016 Denver Broncos (-19.0%)
Only two defenses in 2016 faced a tougher schedule of opposing offenses. Nine of Denver's games came against the top dozen teams in pass offense DVOA, although the Broncos got a bit of an artificial boost because one of those games was against Oakland's backup and third-string quarterbacks. The Broncos had one of the best pass defenses of the past 35 years, but get dragged down our rankings in overall defense because they were below average against the run.
8. 2010 Pittsburgh Steelers (-19.5%)
A phenomenal run defense anchored by nose tackle Casey Hampton, the Steelers limited opposing runners to just over 3.0 yards per carry and is the No. 10 run defense in DVOA history. The Steelers also ranked third against the pass that season, and both outside linebacker James Harrison and safety Troy Polamalu were first-team All-Pros.
7. 2019 San Francisco 49ers (-21.1%)
Both the 49ers and Patriots defenses allowed 4.66 yards per play this season, but the 49ers fell behind the Patriots defense in DVOA because they weren't as strong on third downs and didn't have as many takeaways.
6. 2015 Carolina Panthers (-22.2%)
The 2015 Panthers would rank lower if we just included the regular season, but they get a boost from shutting down the powerful Arizona Cardinals offense in the NFC Championship Game. Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis, and Josh Norman were all first-team All-Pros.
5. 2019 New England Patriots (-23.3%)
The Patriots were originally first on this list when we ran it after Week 15, but they dropped a few spots after subpar performances in Week 16 and 17. They still end up as one of the top 20 defenses ever measured by DVOA (since 1985). Did the Patriots dominate an easy schedule? Yes, and it's even a little easier than the numbers show since they got games against Luke Falk and Josh Rosen while opponent adjustments are primarily based on Sam Darnold and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Still, some of the other best defenses in NFL history also played very easy schedules. The average offensive DVOA of New England's opponents was -5.5%. But the average offense faced by the 2002 Buccaneers was at -6.6%, and the average offense faced by the 2000 Ravens was at -7.7%.
4. 2018 Chicago Bears (-25.5%)
Chicago has a long tradition of great defenses, and last year's squad was just the latest in a long line of dominant units. The 2018 Bears had the only defense of the decade to be over 20% more efficient than average against both the run and the pass. Khalil Mack, Kyle Fuller, and Eddie Jackson were all first-team All-Pros.
3. 2012 Chicago Bears (-26.8%)
For nearly a decade, Lovie Smith's Bears had excellent defenses built around linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs along with cornerback Charles Tillman. This was the last gasp of that multi-year run -- and surprisingly, according to DVOA, the best. The Bears led the league with 44 takeaways and were tied for fourth at 4.95 yards allowed per play, despite playing one of the 10 toughest defensive schedules in the league.
The next year, Urlacher retired and Briggs and Tillman combined to play just 17 games, and the Bears defense completely fell apart, plummeting from first to 25th in DVOA.
2. 2013 Seattle Seahawks (-27.4%)
The Seattle defense dominated all season, allowing a league-low 4.42 yards per play, but they did that against the second-easiest schedule of any defense in the league. Things got harder in the postseason, but the Seahawks just kept dominating. They kept three of the top eight offenses of 2013 -- including Denver, one of the best offenses in NFL history -- to an average of 13.3 points.
1. 2015 Denver Broncos (-28.3%)
The Super Bowl champions were dominant against both the pass (No. 1 in DVOA with a league-leading 5.1 net yards allowed per pass) and the run (No. 4 in DVOA with a league-leading 3.3 yards allowed per carry). The Broncos put up these numbers against the fourth-toughest defensive schedule in the league. The issue wasn't too many games against the best offenses, but almost no games against bad defenses: Indianapolis and Cleveland were the only Denver opponents ranked 21st or lower in offensive DVOA. Then, like the 2013 Seahawks, they had to vanquish three of the top eight offenses in the playoffs on the way to the Lombardi Trophy. Remarkably, Von Miller was the only player on this defense elected to the AP All-Pro first team.
Bottom five
5. 2010 Houston Texans (+17.5%)
4. 2010 Jacksonville Jaguars (+17.7%)
3. 2016 Detroit Lions (+18.5%)
2. 2019 Miami Dolphins (+22.2%)
1. 2015 New Orleans Saints (+26.1%)
Best special teams
Great special teams will often make offense and defense look better. It's not just because of field goals and the occasional touchdown return. Good returns let the offense start closer to the end zone. Strong kickoffs and punts give your defense more room to work with.
Football Outsiders' special teams ratings combine measurement of five main phases of special teams: field goals, kickoffs, punts, kick returns, and punt returns. We measure field goals by comparing each kick to the average expected value of a field goal attempt from the same spot. We measure the other four areas of special teams by comparing each kick or punt to the league average based on the expected point value of field position at the yard line where each kickoff/punt is kicked, caught, and returned to. All of our special teams ratings are adjusted for weather and altitude, because it's easier to kick indoors or in the thin air of Denver.
A longer explanation of our special teams method can be found here. Ratings for each season are normalized to reflect the changes in NFL rules for special teams and variations in the overall strength of the NFL's kickers and punters.
10. 2010 Chicago Bears (+7.4%)
This was the third of Devin Hester's three All-Pro seasons, and perhaps his best. He returned a punt for a touchdown three times and averaged a league-leading 17.1 yards per punt return, making this the most valuable punt return season in our 35-year database. Hester shared kickoff returns with Danieal Manning, and together they were second in the league with 25.4 yards per return.
9. 2013 Kansas City Chiefs (+7.5%)
The Chiefs are on this list for value on returns, but not because of just one player. Thanks to Dexter McCluster's 11.8 yards per return and two touchdowns, the Chiefs were second behind Minnesota in kick return value. Meanwhile, they led the league in punt return value thanks to a combination of Quintin Demps and Knile Davis, who each averaged over 30 yards per return with a touchdown apiece.
8. 2016 Kansas City Chiefs (+7.7%)
Tyreek Hill exploded on the league with two scores on punt returns and another on a kickoff return. The Chiefs also got a Pro Bowl-caliber year from punter Dustin Colquitt.
7. 2016 Philadelphia Eagles (+7.8%)
Darren Sproles made the Pro Bowl as the NFC's return man, but the Eagles got more value from kick returns, where Wendell Smallwood and Josh Huff both scored touchdowns. Kickoff coverage was also stellar, allowing only five returns past the 25 and none past the 35.
6. 2011 San Francisco 49ers (+7.8%)
A great all-around performance, the 49ers were worth at least 4.5 points over average in all five areas of special teams. Kicker David Akers and punter Andy Lee were both voted first-team All-Pro, while Ted Ginn Jr. scored touchdowns on both kickoff and punt returns.
5. 2014 Baltimore Ravens (+7.9%)
A strong year for kicker Justin Tucker (85%), but an even better year for kick returner Jacoby Jones (led NFL with 30.6 yards per return) and punter Sam Koch (led NFL with 47.4 gross yards per punt).
4. 2018 New York Jets (+8.1%)
In his only year with the Jets, 30-year-old Andre Roberts had a career year, making All-Pro with 14.1 yards per punt return, 29.4 yards per kickoff return, and one touchdown on each. Kicker Jason Myers also had a Pro Bowl season, connecting on 92% of his field goals including 17-of-19 from 40 or more yards away. The Jets finished fourth in our metrics for both field goals and net kickoff value. Both Myers and Roberts left the Jets in free agency, but the Jets are second in our special teams ratings through 15 weeks in 2019.
3. 2014 Philadelphia Eagles (+8.3%)
Another Pro Bowl year for Darren Sproles, who had two touchdowns with 13.0 yards per punt return. Josh Huff and Chris Polk each scored a touchdown on a kickoff return. Kickoff coverage forced two fumbles and stopped a league-leading 20 returns short of the 20.
2. 2011 Chicago Bears (+8.5%)
Sort of a weird off-year for Devin Hester on kickoff returns: he had a touchdown return against Minnesota, but was tackled behind the 20 on 17 different returns. He was his usual awesome self on punt returns, with a 16.2-yard average and two touchdowns. Kicker Robbie Gould went 6-for-6 on field goals over 50 yards, while the punt coverage team, led by Pro Bowl special-teamer Corey Graham, allowed just seven returns over 10 yards.
1. 2017 Baltimore Ravens (+9.2%)
Justin Tucker is the greatest kicker in NFL history, and 2016 was his best season, when he missed only one field goal all season and went 10-for-10 from 50-plus yards. But the rest of the Baltimore special teams had an off year in 2016. They rebounded big time in 2017. Tucker once again led the NFL in our field goal metric and was fourth in net kickoff value. The Ravens also led the league in kick return value despite using five different players to return kicks. Together they averaged 27.5 yards per return with no other NFL team averaging above 25.0. Baltimore was also above average in both punting and punt return value.
Bottom five
5. 2017 Denver Broncos (-7.4%)
4. 2017 Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5%)
3. 2017 New York Giants (-7.5%)
2. 2010 San Diego Chargers (-10.2%)
1. 2013 Washington Redskins (-12.0%)
Best individual seasons
We use DVOA to measure players too, but we also use an additional metric called DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement). DYAR takes DVOA and translates it to a measurement of total value instead of value per play. It also compares players to a "replacement-level" player at the position, instead of average, reflecting that there is some value in a player who can give a team average performance over a large volume of carries or pass targets. You can find player DYAR and DVOA stats for the entire decade on the stats pages at Football Outsiders. Quarterback numbers add together passing and rushing; other stats add together rushing and receiving.
Ratings each year are normalized, accounting for changes in the NFL's offensive environment over the past decade. While our team ratings include the postseason, the numbers for players only include regular-season performance so that we can measure every player over a similar 16-game sample. (We do point out some places where players had notable postseasons.) It's also important to note that DVOA and DYAR do not fully separate a player from his teammates and scheme. A quarterback's numbers will somewhat be determined by his receivers, and a receiver's numbers by his quarterback, and everyone's numbers partially reflect coaching and offensive line play.
Quarterbacks
A quick note about Lamar Jackson's 2019 season: Quarterback rushing tends to be much more successful and efficient than running back rushing. In some advanced metrics, this leads to a higher rating for quarterbacks who gain a lot of ground yardage. In FO's metrics, it leads to a lower rating because quarterbacks rushing are only compared to other quarterbacks rushing. Since the average baseline is higher for quarterbacks, the value over average gained by quarterbacks is smaller. This helps explain why Jackson's likely MVP season does not appear in our decade top 10.
10. Philip Rivers, 2013 Chargers (1,793 DYAR)
Rivers' finest year by DVOA and QBR was 2009, but this was the year he set career highs in both DYAR and completion rate (69.5%). He threw for 280 yards per game (8.2 yards per attempt) with 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Rivers added 8.0 yards per attempt in two playoff games but the Chargers fell to the Broncos 24-17 in the divisional round. Rivers' main receivers were Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates, and Danny Woodhead.
9. Peyton Manning, 2012 Broncos (1,807 DYAR)
Manning's first season in Denver is only the sixth-highest season of his career by DYAR, trailing 2013 as well as four different seasons with Indianapolis. Manning was first-team All-Pro and led the league with both a 68.6% completion rate and 7.5 net yards per attempt. He had 37 touchdowns with 11 interceptions throwing primarily to Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, who had 1,000 yards apiece.
8. Tom Brady, 2010 Patriots (1,909 DYAR)
Brady was third in the league with 7.2 net yards per pass, but what really stands out about his 2010 season is that he led the NFL with 36 passing touchdowns and threw only four interceptions. He also took just 25 sacks. He did this despite the Patriots playing the hardest schedule of opposing defenses in the league that year. Based on DVOA (value per play instead of total value), this is the best quarterback season of the decade, with Aaron Rodgers 2011 in second place and Peyton Manning 2013 in third.
7. Matt Ryan, 2016 Falcons (1,917 DYAR)
Ryan has been a consistently good quarterback in the NFL but his MVP season really stands out. It's the only Ryan season that ranks in the top 30 for the decade. Ryan led the NFL with 8.25 net yards per attempt and had 38 touchdowns with only seven interceptions. With 4,944 yards, he finished just short of 5,000, and he completed 69.9% of passes. He did all this against the fourth-toughest schedule of opposing defenses. In the playoffs, Ryan averaged 338 yards per game, completing over 70% of his passes with nine touchdowns and no interceptions.
6. Tom Brady, 2011 Patriots (2,051 DYAR)
Statistically, Brady was the third-best quarterback in a year when three different quarterbacks happened to have historically great seasons. So Brady didn't lead the league in anything, but he did throw for 5,235 yards with 39 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The Patriots also faced a tougher schedule of defenses (13th) than the Packers (26th) or Saints (27th).
5. Patrick Mahomes, 2018 Chiefs (2,070 DYAR)
The greatest year ever for a first-year starting quarterback, passing the 1,601 DYAR that Kurt Warner had with the 1999 Rams. Part of the reason was that the 1999 Rams played a very easy schedule, while Mahomes played a tougher-than-average schedule that added over 100 DYAR to his total with opponent adjustments. Mahomes had 5,097 yards with 50 touchdowns and 12 interceptions and only 26 sacks.
4. Tom Brady, 2012 Patriots (2,092 DYAR)
Brady's most valuable season of the decade by DYAR included 4,827 yards and 34 touchdowns with only eight interceptions. Brady only had 7.0 net yards per pass attempt, but the Patriots played the No. 8 most difficult offensive schedule. Brady's top receivers this season included Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and Rob Gronkowski (who only played 11 games).
3. Aaron Rodgers, 2011 Packers (2,130 DYAR)
Rodgers led the league with 8.22 net yards per pass, in a year when Tom Brady (7.87) and Drew Brees (7.81) also led historically powerful offenses. Rodgers had a touchdown on 9.0% of his passes, only the second quarterback since the merger to reach 9.0%. (Peyton Manning in 2004 was the first, and Lamar Jackson at 8.9% is close to becoming the third.) Rodgers also threw only six interceptions.
2. Drew Brees, 2011 Saints (2,293 DYAR)
Rodgers had the highest DVOA of 2011 but it was Brees who had the most total value because his historic performance came on 141 more pass plays with nearly 900 more yards. Brees set an all-time completion rate record at 71.2%, a record he's since broken twice himself. He also led the league with the lowest sack rate, taking just 24 sacks.
1. Peyton Manning, 2013 Broncos (2,446 DYAR)
Manning's 55-touchdown year has the most value of the decade in part because of volume; Manning had 679 pass plays. Still, this is also the No. 3 season of the decade by DVOA (value per play instead of total value). It's the top season of Manning's career by DYAR and third by DVOA (behind 2004 and 2006). These numbers for Manning would be even higher if not for opponent adjustments. Denver played a very easy schedule of opposing pass defenses in 2013; without the adjustments, Manning would be 200 DYAR higher.
Bottom five
5. Jimmy Clausen, 2010 Panthers (-805 DYAR)
4. Blake Bortles, 2014 Jaguars (-855 DYAR)
3. Jared Goff, 2016 Rams (-884 DYAR)
2. Blaine Gabbert, 2011 Jaguars (-1,046 DYAR)
1. Josh Rosen, 2018 Cardinals (-1,122 DYAR)
Running backs
10. Adrian Peterson, 2012 Vikings (455 DYAR)
"Nine yards what?" Peterson famously said after the last game of the season when a sideline reporter informed him that he finished just nine yards short of Eric Dickerson's all-time rushing yardage record. So with 2,097 yards on the ground, 6.0 yards per carry and 12 touchdowns, why is this season all the way down at No. 10? It's because we're combining rushing and receiving value, and Peterson had negative receiving value with just 5.4 yards per reception. So while this is the No. 1 rushing season of the decade, it's only 10th on the list of total running back value.
9. LeSean McCoy, 2016 Bills (456 DYAR)
The 28-year-old McCoy was outstanding in his second year with Buffalo, averaging 5.4 yards per carry (third among qualifying running backs) and 7.1 yards per reception with an 88% catch rate. He also scored 14 touchdowns: 13 on the ground, 1 through the air. But what really pumps this season up is a very difficult schedule of opposing run defenses, adjustments for which add nearly 100 rushing DYAR to McCoy's total. Half of McCoy's games came against teams ranked seventh or higher in run defense DVOA, with AFC East foes the Jets and Patriots both in the top five.
8. Todd Gurley II, 2018 Rams (464 DYAR)
One of the great seasons of the "do running backs matter?" debate. On one hand, Gurley had phenomenal production. In just 14 games, Gurley was third in the league with 1,251 rushing yards and 580 receiving yards, plus 21 combined touchdowns. He was very efficient as a runner, with 4.9 yards per carry and the highest DVOA of any back with at least 100 carries. He fumbled once all season. The debate comes because when Gurley got hurt, the Rams picked up C.J. Anderson off the scrap heap and he ended up with a partial season even more efficient than Gurley's. DVOA has Gurley as 23% above average on 256 carries but Anderson as 41% above average on 67 carries. Then in the postseason, the Rams gave the ball to Anderson more than Gurley and the two backs were roughly equal in production.
7. LeSean McCoy, 2013 Eagles (478 DYAR)
McCoy's best season saw him chosen as first-team All-Pro after he led the NFL with both 314 carries and 1,607 yards. He also scored nine rushing touchdowns, and his 5.1 yards per carry average was still fifth among all qualifying running backs. McCoy added on 52 catches for 539 yards and two more touchdowns.
6. Todd Gurley II, 2017 Rams (504 DYAR)
Gurley's 2018 season has more rushing value but his 2017 season has more than twice as much receiving value. Gurley had 788 receiving yards on 64 catches for a 12.3 yards per reception average (second among running backs behind Chris Thompson) plus six touchdowns. He added 13 touchdowns on the ground to go with 1,305 rushing yards.
5. Jamaal Charles, 2010 Chiefs (514 DYAR)
Charles made first-team All-Pro in 2010 thanks to an almost-record 6.38 yards per carry. It was the highest average for any running back with at least 100 carries since Mercury Morris in 1973 and worked out to 1,467 yards on just 230 carries. This is tied with DeMarco Murray's 2014 as the No. 2 season of the decade in rushing value. (Murray's season is 15th in combined value.) Charles also added on 45 catches for 468 yards and three touchdowns.
4. Le'veon Bell, 2014 Steelers (520 DYAR)
Bell's second NFL season is the No. 1 season of the decade in receiving value for running backs, with 316 DYAR. Danny Woodhead for the 2013 Chargers is second with 282 DYAR, while Alvin Kamara's 2017 season is third at 278 DYAR. (We'll get to that in a moment.) In conventional stats, Bell had 83 catches for 854 yards and three touchdowns. Bell added 290 carries for 1,361 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. However, he loses a lot of rushing value in our metrics because the Steelers played a very easy schedule of run defenses in 2014.
3. Alvin Kamara, 2017 Saints (533 DYAR)
Kamara had only 120 carries as a rookie but gained 728 yards on those carries for a league-leading 6.1 yards per carry average. DVOA rated Kamara's running over 40% more efficient than average and he had 255 rushing DYAR. Then Kamara added 278 receiving DYAR; as noted above, that's the third-highest total of any season this decade. Kamara caught 81 of 100 targets for 826 yards and five touchdowns.
2. Arian Foster, 2010 Texans (552 DYAR)
This may have been the most unexpected great season of the decade. Foster was an undrafted free agent who had a good partial season as a rookie: 257 yards on 54 carries in six games. Nobody could have expected him to be the All-Pro running back in his second year, leading the league with both 1,616 rushing yards (on 4.9 yards per carry) and 16 touchdowns. Foster also added in 604 receiving yards on 66 catches with two touchdowns. He was No. 1 among running backs in receiving value and No. 2 in rushing value (behind Charles) in the same season.
1. Christian McCaffrey, 2019 Panthers (664 DYAR)
McCaffrey has the sixth-best running back season of the past 35 years by combined rushing and receiving DYAR. The only other running backs to ever top 650 DYAR in a season were Marshall Faulk (1999-2001) and Priest Holmes (2002-2003). McCaffrey finished third in rushing yards (behind Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb) and led the league in receiving yards for running backs, becoming only the third back in history with 1,000 yards both rushing and receiving. McCaffrey got more usage than any other running back, especially as a receiver, with 25 more targets than any other running back. But he's also hugely efficient. Among running backs with at least 25 targets this year, the only players with a better receiving DVOA than McCaffrey are Mark Ingram II, Kyle Juszczyk, and Austin Ekeler. And carrying the ball, only four players with at least 100 carries have a better rushing DVOA.
Bottom five
5. Tashard Choice, 2011 Bills/Cowboys/Redskins (-156 DYAR)
4. Bernard Pierce, 2013 Ravens (-158 DYAR)
3. LeGarrette Blount, 2018 Lions (-163 DYAR)
2. Ray Rice, 2013 Ravens (-190 DYAR)
1. Darren McFadden, 2012 Raiders (-235 DYAR)
Wide receivers
10. Jordy Nelson, 2014 Packers (482 DYAR)
Chris Godwin's 2019 season pro-rates to 486 DYAR, which would put it 10th, but Godwin's injury in Week 15 kept him out of the last two games. So instead, Nelson gets to keep one of his two spots in our decade top 10. Surprisingly, this was Nelson's only Pro Bowl season. He caught 98 balls for 1,519 yards and 13 touchdowns.
9. Mike Wallace, 2010 Steelers (487 DYAR)
Early in his career, Wallace was the NFL's most dangerous deep threat. He had 60 catches for 1,257 yards in 2010, a career-high average of 21.0 yards per reception. He also had 10 touchdowns, and he did this all against a top-10 schedule. However, Wallace had an underwhelming postseason, with only four catches for 26 yards in the first two games before he had 89 yards and a touchdown in Pittsburgh's Super Bowl loss. Wallace's 2011 season is also in the decade's top 20.
8. Randall Cobb, 2014 Packers (489 DYAR)
This is the second receiver from the 2014 Packers in our top 10, but of course Cobb got to his numbers in a much different way than Nelson. Nelson had a 65% catch rate with his average depth of target at 11.9 yards; Cobb had a 72% catch rate with his average depth of target at 9.2 yards. However, both receivers put up big totals. For Cobb that meant 91 catches for 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns.
7. Tyler Lockett, 2018 Seahawks (489 DYAR)
Lockett's season set the all-time record for receiving DVOA by a wideout with at least 50 targets, going all the way back to 1985. Lockett caught 57 of 70 balls for an astounding 81% catch rate, but those weren't short passes. His average depth of target was 15.3 yards downfield. He ended up gaining 965 yards, plus he added six defensive pass interference flags for 182 yards. He also scored 10 touchdowns. Lockett also balled out in Seattle's playoff loss to Dallas with catches of 25, 40, and 53 yards, plus a 52-yard kickoff return.
6. Emmanuel Sanders, 2014 Broncos (513 DYAR)
Sanders had a pretty steady rise through four years in Pittsburgh, but he really exploded once he came to Denver and connected with Peyton Manning. Sanders went from 67 catches for 740 yards and six touchdowns in 2013 to 101 catches for 1,404 yards and nine touchdowns in 2014. Those numbers are all career highs for him. His catch rate of 72% was the second highest of his career.
5. Jordy Nelson, 2011 Packers (520 DYAR)
This season is about efficiency, even though Nelson got less usage than most of the other receivers listed here. He caught 68 of 96 passes for 1,263 yards, a career-high 18.6 yards per reception. He did that with a 71% catch rate. And he had 15 touchdowns on those 68 catches. Nelson's 2011 ratio of catches to touchdowns was the best for any wide receiver this decade who had at least 50 catches in a season.
4. Michael Thomas, 2019 Saints (538 DYAR)
Thomas set a new NFL record with 149 receptions in a season, but what's most remarkable about him is his catch rate. Thomas caught 80% of pass targets this season, the highest rate for any receiver with at least 50 targets. Thomas' career catch rate of 79% is the highest for any receiver this decade, and no other receiver with over 400 targets is even above 70%.
3. Antonio Brown, 2015 Steelers (542 DYAR)
Brown and Julio Jones both had 136 receptions in 2015, which is tied for second all-time behind Marvin Harrison's 143 receptions in 2002. However, Brown had the superior season to Jones that year: he caught those passes with fewer targets (193 vs. 203), caught more touchdowns (10 vs. 8), and did it against a tougher schedule. Brown also tacked on 28 rushing yards and 196 yards when he drew defensive pass interference.
2. Antonio Brown, 2014 Steelers (559 DYAR)
Brown's raw totals were higher in 2015, but his 2014 season was more efficient and better in the red zone, so it comes out a bit higher in our advanced metrics. He had a league-leading 129 catches and 1,698 receiving yards with 13 touchdowns and a 71% catch rate.
1. Calvin Johnson, 2011 Lions (575 DYAR)
Megatron at his most dangerous: 96 catches for 1,680 yards and 16 touchdowns. Johnson had eight 100-yard games and two 200-yard games, with five different two-touchdown games. Johnson's 2012 season, which set the all-time record with 1,964 receiving yards, comes out lower in DYAR (No. 16 for the decade) because it took 203 targets to get to that record, and Johnson had only five touchdowns.
Bottom five
5. Breshad Perriman, 2017 Ravens (-158 DYAR)
4. Devin Aromashodu, 2011 Vikings (-171 DYAR)
3. Greg Little, 2013 Browns (-171 DYAR)
2. Tavon Austin, 2016 Rams (-173 DYAR)
1. Cecil Shorts, 2014 Jaguars (-183 DYAR)
Tight ends
10. Rob Gronkowski, 2014 Patriots (237 DYAR)
Welcome to the Gronk Show. Rob Gronkowski has six of the top 11 tight end seasons of the past decade (2015 is ranked No. 11). This season included 82 catches for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns. Gronk added another 204 yards in the playoffs with a touchdown in each game on the way to a Super Bowl title.
9. Jimmy Graham, 2011 Saints (238 DYAR)
Graham had a career-high 99 catches and 1,310 yards in his second season, plus 11 touchdowns. An easy schedule that year does knock his value in our numbers down a bit. Graham's 2013 season, with 16 touchdowns, is the No. 13 tight end season of the decade.
8. Rob Gronkowski, 2010 Patriots (243 DYAR)
Gronk had only 59 targets in his rookie year and turned 42 of those into catches, with 546 yards and 10 touchdowns. Of all the tight end seasons this decade, only Antonio Gates' 2010 season had a higher DVOA (per-play value).
7. Tyler Eifert, 2015 Bengals (247 DYAR)
Eifert has played at least 10 games for just the third time in 2019, but he's a shadow of the player he was when he had a phenomenal 2015 season. That version of Eifert scored 13 touchdowns in just 13 games, on 52 catches for 615 yards with a 70% catch rate.
6. Travis Kelce, 2016 Chiefs (261 DYAR)
Kelce's best season by our numbers, even though it featured the fewest touchdowns (4). Kelce had 85 catches with a 73% catch rate for 1,125 yards. His average of 7.4 yards after catch is one of the highest for a tight end this decade. Kelce did this against a difficult schedule so adjustments increase him from 222 to 261 DYAR.
5. Rob Gronkowski, 2012 Patriots (279 DYAR)
This was a remarkable partial season where Gronk only played 11 games and averaged a touchdown per game. He also had 55 catches for 790 yards.
4. Tony Gonzalez, 2012 Falcons (286 DYAR)
Gonzalez had 93 catches for 930 yards and eight touchdowns, with a career-high 75% catch rate. This is the third-highest season of Gonzalez's Hall of Fame career behind 2000 (362 DYAR) and 2004 (334 DYAR).
3. Rob Gronkowski, 2017 Patriots (339 DYAR)
Gronk played 14 games in 2017, but had 69 catches with 1,084 yards and eight touchdowns. He also added 116 yards and two touchdowns in the Super Bowl loss to Philadelphia.
2. Antonio Gates, 2010 Chargers (361 DYAR)
Gates' greatest season wasn't even a full season. Gates was only healthy for the first half of the 2010 season, suffering plantar fasciitis that limited him to just two games after October. But in the 10 games he did play, he was remarkable. The standard stats -- 50 catches, 782 yards, 10 touchdowns -- don't quite do it justice. Gates had a touchdown in every game he played that season but two. He had a 77% catch rate, the highest in his career and the highest of any tight end with at least 30 targets that year. What's more remarkable is that Gates did all this even though he was the only elite target Philip Rivers had in 2010. Vincent Jackson played only five games; San Diego's leading starters at wide receiver were Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee.
1. Rob Gronkowski, 2011 Patriots (461 DYAR)
The best tight end season ever, and nothing else really comes close. Gronk caught 91 passes for 1,329 yards and 18 touchdowns. George Kittle and Travis Kelce (in 2018) are the only tight ends to have more receiving yards in one season, though it took them more targets. Jimmy Graham (16 in 2013) is the only other tight end to ever catch more than 13 touchdowns in a season. And no tight end in 2011 with at least 50 targets could beat Gronk's 73% catch rate, a career high. Gronk then added in a 145-yard, three-touchdown game against Denver in the playoffs, but got hurt and had only 26 yards in the Super Bowl.
Bottom five
5. Levine Toilolo, 2014 Falcons (-115 DYAR)
4. Brandon Pettigrew, 2012 Lions (-122 DYAR)
3. Daniel Graham, 2010 Broncos (-140 DYAR)
2. Ricky Seals-Jones, 2018 Cardinals (-158 DYAR)
1. Marcedes Lewis, 2011 Jaguars (-161 DYAR)