He can't go out like this. Not Superman.
Cam Newton, a quarterback whose presence can be more imposing than that of most defensive ends, should be prepping for a second Super Bowl run and savoring his prime years at age 30.
Instead, a combination of poor play, mysterious injuries and the respectable performance of Kyle Allen have left many wondering how a former MVP becomes a potential salary-cap casualty or trade bait. The bedazzled hats, double-take touchdown dives and ear-to-ear smiles can't mask the toll of Newton's 597 hits since 2015, the most of any NFL quarterback during that span -- and 25 more than Russell Wilson, who has started 14 more games.
"He hasn't been the same since the Super Bowl," one AFC exec said.
Newton's football story is far from at its conclusion. The aftermath of Newton's wasted year on injured reserve is sure to send ripples through the league in 2020, whether Newton stays in Carolina or starts for a new offense. Newton is staying quiet about his injury, offering the simple message "Charlotte is home" at his Thanksgiving event last week. And there's really no decision for Newton or the Panthers to make right now. He's entering the last year of a five-year, $103.8 million extension that has run out its guaranteed money.
With reporting from around the league and help from ESPN Stats & Information, let's attempt to sort out the Cam conundrum from all angles.
Long-term health concerns
Newton takes more punishment than any other quarterback. The numbers, and the injury reports, bear that out.
After taking a league-high 1,135 hits since entering the league in 2011, Newton's body appears to be breaking down. He missed two games in 2014 with a fractured rib and a back injury (the latter from a car accident), one game in 2016 with a concussion, two games in 2018 with a shoulder injury and the 14 games this year with a Lisfranc sprain. He has undergone separate right shoulder surgeries in March 2017 and January 2019 for a partially torn rotator cuff and an arthroscopic repair.
That's an exhausting list, and it leaves two primary issues with Newton's future: whether the shoulder holds up, and the lack of clarity on his Lisfranc sprain.
The first is a bigger concern for many personnel evaluators, because at least the foot is getting extended time to heal. The Panthers and Newton handled his Lisfranc injury with caution and hopefulness. Newton wasn't right, so the Panthers gave him months to try to get there.
That's largely a positive. Playing through the injury could have wrecked his 2020 campaign. Despite the mystery around whether he's actually getting surgery, the map to recovery should take months, not years. That Newton hasn't had the procedure yet suggests he can regain his explosion for a free-agency or trade turn after extended rest.
But before he aggravated the foot problem in Week 2, those who watched him throw had arm-strength concerns coming off the latest shoulder surgery. One scout estimated Newton threw with about 80-85% of his old velocity in the season opener against the Los Angeles Rams.
A fraction of Newton's zip is still pretty fast, he noted. But as it stands, Newton's two best qualities -- unleashing the cannon and legging out first downs -- are jeopardized, raising questions about whether he can keep up his running style and whether he can deliver deep balls from the pocket.
"Part of what makes him great is the vertical threat with that arm," the scout said. "You hope that he regains that. His game is so much about power. Loss in arm strength would be a concern."
What the NFL thinks of Newton's new ceiling
Supporters point to his legitimate MVP candidacy through the first half of 2018 with 19 total touchdowns (four rushing) for the 6-2 Panthers. The team hired offensive coordinator Norv Turner to install a Cam-friendly offense, which worked ... for a while.
Newton and the Panthers visited Pittsburgh, where T.J. Watt's blindside sack caused the QB to slam his shoulder into the Heinz Field turf and the Panthers suffered a soul-stripping 52-21 loss that derailed their season. Newton already had appeared on the injury report with a shoulder issue, and despite finishing the year with a career-high 67.9 completion percentage, it became painfully obvious by season's end that going vertical was a problem.
That doesn't discount what Newton was doing before then. He's 13 months removed from playing good football. But a well-rested Newton will need to overcome some ugly numbers that suggest a steep decline.
Only Chris Weinke has more consecutive losses as a Panthers quarterback than Newton's current eight-game streak. During that stretch, he has the second-worst QBR (33) in the NFL, ahead of only Josh Rosen. Newton's 178 consecutive passes without a touchdown is the longest streak in the league since Ryan Lindley in 2012 (228). That was Lindley's last year in the league, and now he coaches quarterbacks in Cleveland instead of playing the position. Since 2016, Newton ranks 30th in QBR (48.6), slightly behind draft mate Andy Dalton, who became a backup for part of the season in Cincinnati. Newton is keeping below-the-Mendoza-Line quarterback company.
One AFC exec says Denver showed the best way to attack Newton in Super Bowl 50 by stopping the run and letting pass-rushers contain him in the pocket for third-down sacks. The Broncos sacked Newton seven times that night, and though he's had elite moments since then (including 754 rushing yards in 2017), he also has thrown 44 interceptions in his 47 regular-season games since the Super Bowl.
Everyone interviewed says Newton is among the league's toughest quarterbacks. Sometimes that's not enough.
"Denver stole his Superman cape," said the exec about Newton's 18-of-41 passing performance on the biggest stage. "They had him on the ground all game. They took something from him that day."
Still, a separate evaluator sees Newton, off sheer talent alone, as equal to Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins or Jared Goff in the NFL QB pantheon.
"That's not all on him," the evaluator said. "They need to do a better job protecting him. The OL is trash. Also, they need more perimeter playmakers. I believe he can be successful in the right situation."
The Panthers haven't exactly surrounded Newton with elite offensive line and receiver play. Twenty-nine NFL teams spent more on their 2019 offensive line than the Panthers' $21.4 million. The two teams behind Carolina are the Miami Dolphins and Chicago Bears, and have you seen their lines?
Despite receiver DJ Moore's Year 2 breakthrough, his skill set is best-suited for short-to-intermediate work. For years, Carolina patched together outside receiver crews with journeymen (Jerricho Cotchery, Ted Ginn Jr., Jarius Wright), underwhelming draft picks (Devin Funchess) and hybrid models (Curtis Samuel).
Part of Newton's brilliance is that he made it all work for so long. But as one exec added, running quarterbacks usually stall out eventually. Might take two years. Might take close to a decade. But true pocket passers prevail.
Looming question: Who will the new head coach want?
Big changes in the organization are looking likelier by the week after Sunday's brutal home loss to the Washington Redskins to drop a fourth straight game. The once-inspired team looks flat on both sides of the ball, and Allen wasn't great against a bottom-tier Washington defense.
Panthers owner David Tepper, who took over the franchise in 2018, didn't want to make sweeping changes in the first year, but two straight losing seasons would not sit well with an impatient hedge-fund billionaire. Many NFL people had been bracing for the coaching job to potentially open -- which came to pass with Ron Rivera's firing on Dec. 3 -- along with the position of general manager Marty Hurney.
"And the next coach could have a huge say on who the quarterback is," a team source told ESPN.
A new person in power will have every option available: draft a quarterback in the top half of the first round, supplement Allen with a veteran, revive Newton. A late-season slide could put Carolina in a good spot to find a future quarterback, or move up with draft capital.
That would signal a fresh start for the franchise and Newton, who might welcome it at this point. Not many NFL quarterbacks need one more than he does.
The impact of a Cam release or trade, and a timeline
This can't be stressed enough: The Panthers can walk away from Newton with zero salary-cap responsibilities, and they actually earn $19.1 million in salary-cap savings if they release him outright.
There are no losses here, only gains -- the $18.6 million salary off the books along with a $2 million prorated roster bonus, a $500,000 workout bonus and $2 million in dead money. Rarely is a contract for a $100 million player this clean and escapable.
All this was supposed to give Newton incentive to ball out in 2019 and re-up with Carolina. He wants in on that new QB money, which makes his 14 games missed so costly. He really didn't get to bet on himself like Prescott did.
There's no rush for Carolina, which can move on from Newton whenever it wants. Roster bonuses typically aren't due until later in the spring. League-wide trade discussions begin at the NFL scouting combine in late February as agents and execs amble through hotel hallways and crowded bars.
But as one exec told ESPN, he wouldn't give up more than a third-round pick for Newton because he's "damaged merchandise" after all the hits. Getting a first- or second-rounder would be more palatable for a fan base that relished his star power for the better part of the past decade. Getting that is hardly a guarantee, though.
The options are clear cut: Let Newton play out the final year of his deal or use the money elsewhere.
With $26.36 million in 2020 cap space, releasing or trading Newton would provide breathing room for future deals for Christian McCaffrey, Shaq Thompson and others. Recent running back deals have backfired, but Carolina's offense is built around McCaffrey touching the ball 25-30 times per game. Without him, the Panthers are Falcons Lite. McCaffrey looks like a worthy exception to a high-risk tailback market.
Because a summer holdout three years into McCaffrey's rookie deal isn't totally out of the question, the Panthers should plan for his future now. That means at least $15 million per year on a four- or five-year extension.
Potential destinations: What's the right fit?
A healthy Newton would improve several NFL offenses right now, the most desperate of which could potentially be willing to part with a high Day 2 pick to get him. Whether he is released or traded, a new contract is part of the conversation for Newton, who is too accomplished for a bridge quarterback deal but carries too much uncertainty for top-of-market money.
The NFL's new normal is paying close to $30 million per year for guys who are slightly above average. One league source said Newton could probably command a deal that pays somewhere in the mid-20 millions annually, assuming the shoulder checks out.
As for the new location, the whispers grew louder in the days after Newton's move to IR: It has to be Chicago. Get Mitch Trubisky out of there.
Though the Bears would make some sense on paper, there's one reality most can't overlook.
"Ryan Pace doesn't want to give up on Mitch," one NFC exec said.
Trubisky's 338 yards and three touchdowns during a Thanksgiving win at Detroit gives the Chicago GM another excuse to stand by the No. 2 pick of the 2017 draft. If Jameis Winston got five years in Tampa Bay after 76 turnovers, there's reason to believe Trubisky will get a fourth in Chicago. And it's not as if the Bears have some potent running offense that evolves Newton's skill set.
Many evaluators agree that the Chargers are a viable new home for Cam. Newton's aggressive downfield game aligns with Los Angeles' big, physical targets Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Philip Rivers might be playing his way out a contract extension with each interception. And the Chargers could get weird with a running game trio of Newton, Melvin Gordon (if re-signed) and Austin Ekeler.
With $53 million in 2020 cap space and Tyrod Taylor ($5 million) as the only primary quarterback on the books, adding Newton's current or revised contract would be seamless.
Here's one shocker floated by a personnel evaluator: New Orleans.
"Sean Payton is intrigued by Lamar Jackson and a quarterback with the ability to run," the evaluator said.
That has played out with Taysom Hill in a complementary role, but in this case Newton would be a successor to Drew Brees, a role many unofficially reserve for Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater has acquitted himself well for free agency, though, and Payton would know exactly how to use Newton after coaching against him twice per year.
More pre-snap motions and run-game trickery from one of the game's best playcallers sounds like a good time for everyone involved. That's an empty dream if Brees continues to complete 74% of his passes, 14 points higher than Newton's career average, and the Saints extend him.
Are the Panthers sold on Kyle Allen?
Here's my understanding after talking with sources on the matter: Carolina very much likes Allen but needs all of 2019 to fully evaluate him. He has done everything the team has asked, players have responded to him, and he has thrown for five touchdowns and one interception in the two games after his dud performances. Those duds against San Francisco and Atlanta were must-look-away bad, but for an undrafted free agent, he's been solid. And that's part of the issue: Undrafted free agents tend to have a lower ceiling than top-10 picks -- guys like Newton.
The plus? Allen is crazy cheap. The only thing NFL teams like better than rookie-draft-pick contracts are undrafted-free-agent contracts. Allen is finishing a two-year, $1.05 million deal and is slated for an exclusive rights free-agent tender; players absolutely hate these, but have little negotiating power in this situation.
He's two years from free agency, and if Carolina decides Allen is an option for the future, it could offer bridge starter money (think Jacoby Brissett's two-year, $30 million deal) to assuage player relations at the most important position while taking advantage of Allen's lack of leverage.
"Everyone is a believer in Kyle," a team source said. "The locker room plays hard for him. What else do you want? But who really knows what the future holds? There's a lot of time for all this to play out."
The Panthers don't have to tell Allen he's the guy, but he has done enough to prevent them from saying he isn't. The way Allen battled New Orleans blow for blow in a 34-31 Week 12 loss in the Superdome at least puts him in the conversation.
As one evaluator said, his anticipation on throws is strong, and he might be a better fit for Turner's offense than Newton because he's a "distribution quarterback." That's important for an offense with good short-space playmakers.
On the other hand, Allen can struggle when forced out of the pocket, throwing four picks in Atlanta off trying to do too much. Those broken plays are when Newton takes over and flexes his star power.
That's exactly what Newton did on what might be his final drive as a Panther: completing six passes for 62 yards in the two-minute drill against the Bucs in Week 2, until the Panthers were stuffed on fourth-and-goal on a Wildcat play with Newton as a decoy receiver, an odd potential ending to a historic run.