Our panel of NFL experts predicts Week 13's biggest upsets, fantasy football flops and potential sleepers.
Plus, they evaluate the race for the final playoff spot in the AFC and the future of Cam Newton in Carolina. Newton is out for the season and could be released or traded this offseason with a manageable cap hit for the Panthers.
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What should the Panthers do at quarterback in 2020?
Mina Kimes, NFL writer: It's a cop-out, but this is impossible to answer without knowing the state of Newton's health. Kyle Allen has shown real upside, but he also has been inconsistent; I'd bet on him as the starter only if (A) Newton is injured or (B) you can get an extremely attractive trade package.
Jason Reid, The Undefeated, senior writer: Often, relationships grow stale. That's what has happened with the Panthers and Newton. It's time for the Panthers to trade Newton, who probably would benefit from a fresh start in the right situation. As for Kyle Allen, I mean, c'mon. Yeah, he has had some nice moments. He also has been wildly inconsistent. The Panthers' next long-term QB is playing college football.
Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders: If Newton can be fully healthy, he's a guy you sign long term, but I get the feeling Newton might never be fully healthy again. There's a good chance owner David Tepper is going to clean house after a losing season, and it makes sense for a new GM and new head coach to start a new era with a new quarterback. Trade Newton for picks, draft a franchise quarterback in the first round and let Allen be the caretaker until the youngster is ready.
Marcus Spears describes Lamar Jackson as a "transcendent talent" that has never been seen in the NFL before.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: The Panthers need to accept that physical stability isn't likely to increase with age. In other words, keeping Newton would be more about sentiment and hope than any cold calculation that he can get and remain healthy. The smartest decision would be to get what they can for Newton and install Allen as at least a short-term starter. Allen has shown enough promise in nine starts to merit a 2020 starting job.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Keep Newton as the clear No. 1. He's a difference-making quarterback who has become underappreciated. Allen is a rock-solid developmental backup quarterback for the team next season.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Kimes: Texans QB Deshaun Watson. Honestly, I wouldn't feel great about starting anyone against the Patriots' defense, which is holding quarterbacks, wide receivers and running backs to the lowest number of points per game of any team.
Reid: Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins. Did you see what Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore did to Dallas wide receiver Amari Cooper last week? Gilmore held Cooper, the Cowboys' No. 1 wideout, without a catch for the first time since he joined the Cowboys. On his 26 routes, Cooper had only two targets. Gilmore is such a monster.
Schatz: Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette. The Tampa Bay Bucs are still the second-best defense in the league against running backs in fantasy football. It's not just run defense; because you can throw downfield on Tampa, opponents don't tend to throw the ball to their running backs in the passing game either.
Seifert: Vikings QB Kirk Cousins. Although he is having a career year in many respects, Cousins will face stiff competition and a high-pressure situation Monday night in Seattle. The Seahawks' defense has given up the eighth-fewest passing touchdowns (13) in the NFL this season and is tied for the seventh-most interceptions (13). That all adds up to the Vikings riding Dalvin Cook in the ground game and minimizing Cousins' opportunities for mistakes.
Yates: Seahawks RB Chris Carson. I don't feel particularly strong about this pick, but I'm a little less confident this week on Carson than normally expected. First of all, Rashaad Penny played nearly as many snaps as Carson last week (35 to 30), with Penny busting open the game vs. Philly with a long run, while the Seahawks now host an awesome Vikings run defense in Week 13. Still starting Carson? Yes, but also a little nervous.
Who's your pick to get the No. 6 seed in the AFC?
Kimes: It's close, but I'll go with Oakland. Yes, the Raiders looked bad on Sunday. But after next week, they have four winnable games. The Titans' and Steelers' schedules look tougher, and I just don't see the Browns catching up.
Reid: Since I have to give an answer, I'll say the Browns. That established, I'm not married to this choice. With this bunch, who could really be comfortable with any pick right now?
Schatz: Based on my upset pick above and the Football Outsiders playoff odds report, I'm narrowly going with Pittsburgh. It's really up in the air, as our playoff odds give seven different AFC teams (including likely No. 5 seed Buffalo) at least a 10% chance of winning a wild card.
Seifert: Titans. I'm answering this based purely on who is playing the best of the group right now. Tennessee has won four of its past five games since replacing quarterback Marcus Mariota with Ryan Tannehill. The Titans have defeated only one team with a winning record during that stretch (Chiefs), and their remaining strength of schedule is the fourth hardest in the league. But easier schedules are less relevant for teams that aren't playing well or are struggling. The Titans have an opening.
Yates: I'll go with the Browns, as I view their recent success as not merely a product of the schedule but also of a team that is starting to jell. The offense can be outstanding. I expect them to continue their winning streak Sunday in Pittsburgh. My sleeper pick is the Titans.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 13.
Kimes: Seahawks WR DK Metcalf. The rookie had a couple of bad drops Sunday, but Russell Wilson keeps targeting him -- and the Vikings' secondary has been exploited all year.
Reid: Panthers QB Kyle Allen. He has proved he's capable of producing big numbers. Washington has proved it's a bad football team. Advantage: Allen.
Schatz: Rams QB Jared Goff. He has had an off year, but he has all his receivers back, and no defense gives up more fantasy points to quarterbacks than that of the Cardinals.
Seifert: Jets WR Robby Anderson. When you play the Bengals' pass defense, you load up. Whether it's Anderson or Jamison Crowder, the Jets have a good chance to run up some big numbers.
Yates: Titans QB Ryan Tannehill. He has totally catalyzed the Titans' offense, accounting for multiple touchdowns in each of his five starts. He's a threat with his legs but is doing work as a passer right now. It has been really fun to see Tannehill seize this chance to start for the Titans, and he's a top-12 quarterback play for Week 13.
Happy Thanksgiving! This year, NFL fans should be thankful for _________.
Kimes: Lamar Jackson. He's the greatest show on earth (and beyond).
Reid: This one is easy: Lamar Jackson. He has changed the game. And historic change has never been more fun to watch.
Schatz: Analytics! Not only do they help teams win, but they lead to a more exciting brand of football. More passing, fewer handoffs for no gain. More going for it, fewer punts. More 2-point conversions, fewer extra point attempts. Aggressive football is simply more fun.
Seifert: Three-man rushes and tight ends assigned to block pass-rushers. These "strategies," seen far too often this season, self-identify the boneheads and make it easier on the rest of the league.
Yates: Michael Thomas, who is on pace for arguably the most dominant season of all time by a receiver. He is unstoppable. He is getting better by the season. He is relentless. Appreciate him. You just can't guard him.