Matchups play a huge part in fantasy football managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchup -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchup highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based on those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Carson Wentz, Eagles (at Dolphins). I was torn here among Wentz, Sam Darnold (at Bengals) and Jared Goff (at Cardinals), and you'd think Darnold warranted the nod, considering he's the only one of the three to deliver a top-15 fantasy week (all three of them within the top seven, in fact). It's Wentz for me, though, because of both the lengthier track record of success and the locked-in favorable weather conditions in South Florida. Baker Mayfield just dropped 23.6 fantasy points on the Dolphins' defense, whose 5.2 adjusted fantasy points added for the full season are second-most behind the Raiders' 5.7.
Whether Alshon Jeffery (ankle) and Nelson Agholor (knee) can suit up for this game has some bearing on Wentz's success, but Monday's release of Jordan Matthews was a hint that either or both should return, not to mention Wentz has a pair of quality tight ends (Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert), plus a pass-catching running back (Miles Sanders) to throw to. The Dolphins grade a top-five matchup for tight ends using full-season data (and upper half using past-five-weeks numbers) as well as for pass-catching running backs (again upper half using past-five stats), so Wentz has options.
Unfavorable matchup: Deshaun Watson, Texans (vs. Patriots). Traditional note: This is not a recommendation to sit Watson across the board. He's still a top-10 quarterback in my rankings, and his mobility erases the chance of a completely disastrous fantasy point total. That said, the Patriots represent the absolute worst matchup Watson could ask for, having never allowed more than 10.6 fantasy points on passing plays in a game this season, not to mention affording the league's lowest fantasy points per pass attempt average (0.14). Lamar Jackson is the only quarterback to finish better than 20th at the position in a week while facing the Patriots -- he scored a third-best 28.6 fantasy points against them in Week 9 -- and he generated 18.1 of those points with his legs. That -- and, to a lesser degree, Josh Allen's 8.6 of 8.7 fantasy points in Week 4 being earned on rushing plays -- represents Watson's path to Week 13 success. He'll need a rushing score to have any hope of a top-five weekly finish.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Ronald Jones II, Buccaneers (at Jaguars). The Jaguars' run defense, since their Week 10 bye, hasn't at all looked like the unit that took the field the nine weeks prior. After posting minus-0.6 adjusted fantasy points added in the months of September and October, they served up 33.1 PPR fantasy points combined to Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson in Week 9, 16.9 points to Marlon Mack in Week 11 and another 15.7 points to Jonathan Williams after Mack's injury in that same game, and 28.5 points to Derrick Henry in Week 12. During November's four weekends, the Jaguars allowed seven total rushes of 20-plus yards, two more than any other team in the league, and that's despite the fact that they played only three games in the month. Jones, meanwhile, appears to have emerged as the Buccaneers' primary running back since their Week 7 bye, averaging 12.8 PPR fantasy points and 11.2 rushing attempts while playing 43% of the Buccaneers' offensive snaps in that time.
Unfavorable matchup: Leonard Fournette, Jaguars (vs. Buccaneers). Again, this isn't a recommendation to sit Fournette everywhere. After all, he amassed 24 rushing attempts in a Week 12 game in which his Jaguars trailed by multiple touchdowns for 40 minutes and 40 seconds, so he clearly is the focal point of this offense and benefits from volume regardless of matchup. The problem, though, is that the Buccaneers remain the game's stiffest running back matchup, their seasonal minus-9.4 adjusted fantasy points added is four points better than that of any other team in the league, not to mention their 70 rushes allowed of at least 5 yards are the second-fewest behind the Saints' 67. Yes, the Buccaneers' run defense has been slightly more human the past three weeks, but 35.9 of the 57.7 PPR fantasy points it has allowed to opposing running backs in that time (62%) have come on receiving plays. This is a matchup in which the Jaguars would be foolish not to pass, and that'll be the area where Fournette will probably have to do most of his damage.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: DK Metcalf, Seahawks (vs. Vikings). You could pick any of the Seahawks' top three wide receivers, Tyler Lockett and Josh Gordon being the others, and probably be in good shape. Metcalf stands out because he has run the largest percentage of his routes on the perimeter of the three, and the opposing Vikings have served up the second-most PPR fantasy points to perimeter receivers (257.3). Sure, he might see a majority of his routes matched up against cornerback Xavier Rhodes, but that matchup was more of a problem in seasons past than this year, as Rhodes has served up 118.8 PPR fantasy points on 348 coverage snaps. Incidentally, in Weeks 9-11, the Vikings afforded at least 17.6 PPR fantasy points to each of Amari Cooper (31.7 in Week 10), Tyreek Hill (26.5, Week 9), Randall Cobb (22.6, Week 10), Courtland Sutton (18.8, Week 11) and Michael Gallup (17.6, Week 10).
Unfavorable matchup: Kenny Golladay, Lions (vs. Bears). The Bears' defense might be disappointing in fantasy terms -- and in the on-field game particularly containing the run -- but one area in which it's still a tough matchup is for opposing wide receivers. That's in large part thanks to the performance of cornerback Prince Amukamara, who has allowed only 76.3 PPR fantasy points on 378 coverage snaps. In the past five weeks, no wide receiver has exceeded 14.7 PPR fantasy points against this defense, and Keenan Allen (12.3 points on 10 targets in Week 8), Alshon Jeffery (7.6 points on eight targets, Week 9) and Cooper Kupp (8.3 points on three targets, Week 11) had especially quiet games against the Bears. Golladay himself had just 14.7 points on nine targets against the Bears as recently as Week 10.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Ryan Griffin, Jets (at Bengals). He was on here last week and delivered with a 10.3 PPR fantasy point performance on a mere three targets, and he gets the repeat nod thanks to a second consecutive excellent matchup. Griffin's role has been expanding the past five weeks, his target share 14% and offensive snaps played rate 85% during that time, but more importantly, he has seen four red zone targets and converted three of them for touchdowns in that time span. The Bengals, meanwhile, struggle to contain tight ends, having served up 24.6 PPR fantasy points on eight targets combined to backup tight ends Nick Boyle, Hayden Hurst and Darren Waller in Weeks 10-11. No. 1 tight ends Mark Andrews and Darren Waller combined for 35.9 additional points on 15 targets in those games. In particular, this defense has been awful against tight ends in the red zone the past five weeks, serving up six catches on eight targets for 49 yards and three touchdowns in that time.
Unfavorable matchup: Mark Andrews, Ravens (vs. 49ers). Continuing this week's theme of "terrible matchups for players too talented to flat-out sit," we present Andrews, who has the misfortune of drawing a 49ers matchup. Only one tight end all season has managed double-digit PPR fantasy points against this defense: Jacob Hollister, who scored 20.2 on 10 targets in Week 10. Andrews could see a similar workload, but he's more dependent on touchdowns than the average tight end, his eight end-zone targets (four of which were successfully converted) are tied for the positional lead, and the 49ers have served up only five catches on eight red zone targets for 27 yards and two touchdowns to tight ends all season.