Our panel of NFL experts predicts Week 12's biggest upsets, fantasy football flops and potential sleepers. Plus, they evaluate the race for the AFC South title and pick under-the-radar players to watch down the stretch.
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What's your top upset pick for Week 12?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Cowboys (+6.5) over Patriots. I know what the New England secondary can do. That's a lockdown unit. But I also believe Dallas has the second-best wide receiver corps in the NFL right now after Kansas City. If Dak Prescott can make enough plays in the pass game, then Dallas can steal a win in Foxborough.
Mike Clay, NFL writer: Jets (+2.5) over Raiders. The Raiders have won three in a row after sneaking past the Bengals on Sunday, but Oakland is 5-1 at home (all wins by one possession) and 1-3 on the road this season. The Raiders are 6-25 playing in the Eastern time zone over the past decade and have lost five consecutive games at the Jets. These are obviously different teams from past years, but traveling coast to coast has historically been tough on teams.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Jets (+2.5) over Raiders. I may go down with the ship here, but I'm still not seeing it with the Raiders. I don't understand how they're winning games. I think the Jets will be able to slow down Josh Jacobs and the run game, and Sam Darnold is starting to hit a little bit of a groove en route to what I still think will be a big, encouraging finish to the season for him.
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Rams (+3) over Ravens. Lamar Jackson in L.A. is going to be wild, but the Rams get Brandin Cooks back and found a little something with the running game last week. I'm not completely sold on the Ravens' defense -- too patchy early in the year -- and despite the Rams' issues, they have the pedigree for a December push. This game will spark a run.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Giants (+6) over Bears. While the Bears' defense remains an imposing group, the offense remains unsettling to watch. Meanwhile, the Giants are no consistent force themselves, but there's at least an extra week to prepare coming out of their bye and enough offensive horsepower to test that vaunted Chicago defense.
Who's your pick for an under-the-radar player who is going to break out down the stretch of the season?
Bowen: 49ers WR Deebo Samuel. In his past two games, Samuel has caught 16 of 21 targets for 246 yards. And while Samuel shouldn't be expected to keep up that pace when tight end George Kittle returns from injury, the rookie is a prime fit for the 49ers' pass game. The route-running traits are improving, and his run-after-the-catch ability pops.
Clay: Broncos TE Noah Fant. Fant went for 60 yards on 11 targets against Minnesota on Sunday. The rookie has handled 24 targets during three games since Emmanuel Sanders was traded. Fant has played 80% of Denver's offensive snaps during the span, while essentially operating as Brandon Allen's No. 2 target. The 2019 first-round pick is averaging a healthy 7.8 yards per target, and as long as his heavy usage doesn't change, he'll put up plenty of big games down the stretch.
Graziano: Titans WR A.J. Brown. Yeah, they're a run-first team and Corey Davis was a super-high pick once upon a time. But I know from talking to Titans coaches that they love Brown, think he has played better and more consistently than the numbers indicate and trust him to come up with big plays in big spots. I think he's in for a strong December run as Ryan Tannehill's top target.
Fowler: Steelers RB Benny Snell. It's shocking to see the Steelers' running game, with a proud line, toil among the league's worst rushing offenses. But with James Conner beat up and other backs not getting it done, the Steelers are relieved that Snell is returning from a knee injury. Coach Mike Tomlin made it a point this week to say he's happy Snell is back. Snell is a powerful runner who might be just what Pittsburgh needs for back-to-back AFC North matchups.
Yates: Broncos TE Noah Fant. The rookie is coming off a career-high 11 targets in Week 11, a game in which he also saw two carries. He's an athletic freak and should remain a centerpiece of the Broncos' passing attack going forward. His future is really bright.
The 6-4 Colts lead the 6-4 Texans in the AFC South ahead of TNF. Which team are you taking to win the division?
Bowen: Colts. Hard to pick against Deshaun Watson, but I keep going back to the balanced offensive attack in Indy, that nasty offensive line and the red zone efficiency with quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Give me the Colts, with a defense that has radically changed from a zone-heavy approach last season to man coverage in '19, as the AFC South champs.
Clay: Texans. Houston's Week 11 performance in Baltimore was beyond ugly, but this team has otherwise been very good throughout the 2019 season. That's especially been the case offensively, as they entered this past week fourth in the league in touchdowns. Houston is 3-1 at home this season and will play four of its final six games at home, including a big Week 12 showdown with the Colts. I expect Watson to get the better of Brissett and set the path toward the AFC South crown.
Graziano: Texans. I always go with the better quarterback, and while I'm impressed with Brissett, that title here still belongs to Watson. Thursday's game is massive, and the Colts have definitely had Houston's number these past couple of years. But I expect an angry Texans team, off its Baltimore beatdown, and I think the loss of Marlon Mack is a big one for Indy.
Fowler: Colts. They might be 8-2 without Brissett's knee sprain. The Texans have more talent in spots, most notably at quarterback, but the most balanced teams typically prevail over four months. Indy has the better roster, it can win in different ways and the defense is primed for more splash plays. This race will be t-i-g-h-t. The way Baltimore lived in Houston's backfield Sunday is alarming, though.
Yates: Texans. While I believe the Colts have the more balanced overall roster, the Texans have a couple of edges going forward beyond just the quarterback advantage. This game on Thursday is being played in Houston (the Texans are 3-1 at home), and the Colts' forthcoming schedule includes four of six games on the road, including a trek to New Orleans.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Bowen: Bengals RB Joe Mixon. He posted solid RB2 numbers over the past two weeks, with 199 yards rushing and a touchdown on 45 carries. Volume and production are there. But I'm going with the Steelers' defense this week. That unit controls the line of scrimmage vs. Cincy in this one.
Clay: Cowboys WR Amari Cooper. He was held to a 3-38-0 receiving line on eight targets while dealing with Darius Slay shadow coverage Sunday. Life will be even tougher this week with Stephon Gilmore set to travel with him. Gilmore has consistently shadowed No. 1 receivers while emerging as one of the league's top corners over the past season and a half. New England has allowed the fewest fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers this season, which is where Cooper aligns 87% of the time.
Graziano: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. It's Foxborough, Jake ... er, I mean Dak. Unless your name is Lamar Jackson, the Patriots aren't letting you score fantasy points as a quarterback this year. Prescott is on a major roll, and it's absolutely possible the Pats focus on stopping Ezekiel Elliott and allow Prescott chances to beat them down the field. But between Gilmore and the way the Pats play up front, I think this is a step-back week in a monster year for Dak.
Fowler: Packers WR Davante Adams. So every Cowboys playmaker is going to struggle in New England? Got it. I'm looking to the Bay, where Richard Sherman's length will bother Green Bay's top weapon. That's gonna be a matchup of two crafty players, and though Adams will get Sherman on a few, think modest production as the 49ers force Aaron Rodgers to go elsewhere or check into run plays.
Yates: Cowboys WR Randall Cobb. He has three straight games of at least six catches and back-to-back games with at least 100 yards, but the Cowboys travel to Gillette Stadium to face the outstanding Patriots secondary that has done a consistently stellar job of limiting passing games this season. Cobb's hot streak might cool off Sunday.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 12.
Bowen: Jets WR Jamison Crowder. He has caught 13 of 17 targets for 159 yards and two touchdowns in his past two games. And he was started in just 37.6% of ESPN leagues in Week 11. Think of the quick passing game here, and slot targets, versus the Raiders zone-heavy defense.
Clay: Falcons WR Calvin Ridley. He is fresh off an impressive 8-143-1 performance against Carolina on Sunday, but the big day marks only his third top-20 fantasy week of the season. In fact, Ridley has finished 45th or worse four times. Despite the inconsistency, Ridley is a good bet for back-to-back strong performances with a Tampa Bay pass defense allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers, including the third-most to the perimeter, on tap this week.
Graziano: Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky. I know. I know, I know, I know. I've watched it. The Bears' offense doesn't look as if it could win a father-son Turkey Bowl game right now. BUT ... if you play the Giants this year, you're almost always guaranteed to get healthy. Dak Prescott's best fantasy day of the year was against the Giants. Jameis Winston and Sam Darnold had their second-best fantasy days of the year against the Giants. Josh Allen had his third best. Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford had their fourth best. The Giants' defense is a giving bunch, man, and if Trubisky can't get it done in this one ... well, I just don't know what will be left to say about him.
Fowler: Lions RB Bo Scarbrough. The Lions are desperate for backfield playmaking and might just have settled on this former practice squad player to shoulder the burden. Scarbrough ran for 55 yards and one touchdown on 14 carries against Dallas, and Washington's run D is far inferior. Jeff Driskel's running ability could offset some of Scarbrough's production, but the Lions also don't want Driskel throwing a ton, which helps Scarbrough's case. Plug and play the former Alabama standout.
Yates: Jets QB Sam Darnold. He is hot of late, and I expect that to continue over the next three weeks. He posted north of 25 fantasy points against the Redskins on Sunday and now faces an Oakland defense that has been better lately but still not strong enough to derail my confidence. Darnold should have a strong finish to the season.