Our panel of NFL experts predicts Week 10's biggest upsets, fantasy football flops and potential sleepers. Plus, they look at the biggest surprises of the opening nine weeks of the 2019 season and go out on a limb with bold predictions for the second half of the campaign.
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What's your top upset pick for Week 10?
Mina Kimes, NFL writer: Raiders +1 over Chargers. The Chargers' pass rush dominated against Green Bay on Sunday, but Oakland's offensive line has been a surprising area of strength -- and a big factor behind Derek Carr's success so far this season. On the other side of the ball, I expect the Raiders' run defense, which is ranked ninth in Football Outsiders' DVOA, to shut down Los Angeles' mostly underwhelming rushing attack.
Jason Reid, The Undefeated, senior writer: Seahawks +6 over 49ers. Look, I absolutely love what Kyle Shanahan is doing with the 49ers. But here's the thing: Russell Wilson is playing at another level. The leader in the MVP race will remind everyone why he is out front on Monday night.
Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders: Lions +3 over Bears. The most stable part of a football team and the most predictive aspect for the future is passing offense. Right now, Detroit ranks fifth in passing offense in the DVOA ratings, while Chicago ranks 21st. Sure, the Lions can't run the ball very well, but frankly, neither can the Bears.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Seahawks +6 over 49ers. On paper, the 49ers have plenty going for them. They're playing at home and have extra rest following a Thursday night game, while the Seahawks are coming off an overtime outing on Sunday. But this is the biggest game the 49ers have played in six years, and the Seahawks will be ready to capitalize on any and all jitters.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Cardinals +4.5 over Buccaneers. It's the Bruce Arians Bowl, as the Bucs' head coach faces off against the team he coached through the 2017 season before spending a year away from the sideline in retirement. The additional three days of rest and preparation for the Cardinals -- plus the way I anticipate Kyler Murray to throw the football against a shaky Bucs secondary -- will be enough to propel Arizona to victory.
Every team has now played at least eight games. What has surprised you most through the first half of the season?
Kimes: The San Francisco 49ers' pass defense. After they added Dee Ford and Nick Bosa to a collection of high draft picks up front, I expected the Niners' defensive line to improve, but I didn't expect the secondary to play so well, even with the help of a fearsome pass rush. Thanks to the strong play of Richard Sherman & Co. -- safeties Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt have been pleasant surprises -- opposing offenses are converting less than 30% of their third downs.
Reid: The New York Jets being a complete mess (again). I didn't think they'd make the playoffs or even challenge for a wild-card berth, but they're in much worse shape than I envisioned. Even accounting for quarterback Sam Darnold's absence due to illness, there appears to be so much wrong in the front office and on the field.
Schatz: The collapse of the Los Angeles Chargers. I had them as my AFC favorite until the Derwin James injury. Now they are 19th in DVOA and have less than a 10% chance of making the postseason per our metrics. The James injury, combined with a number of others in the secondary, has dropped their defense to 26th in DVOA despite the fact that Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram III have remained healthy.
Seifert: The NFL sabotaging its own decision to make pass interference reviewable. Instead of working to find a reasonable standard for reversals, it has in essence rigged the system. Coaches challenges have been almost unilaterally rejected, regardless of the level of contact involved, leaving replay officials in the booth or in New York City to determine what will be overturned. What once seemed a new era of replay review is in reality a sham.
Yates: The 49ers' dominance. While I was of the mind that the Niners were going to be a decidedly improved team, I did not foresee the run of destruction they've provided so far this season. The defense is suffocating, the run game is dynamic and Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off of his best game of the season. They are the truth.
How about a bold prediction for the second half of the season that you feel strongly about?
Kimes: Jameis Winston plays well enough to keep his job in Tampa Bay, at least for one more year. I don't think the Buccaneers are in position to snag one of the better quarterbacks in the draft, and I don't think they'll view any of the free agents as an upgrade over Winston. They probably won't give him a big extension, but I don't see them moving on after another up-and-down season.
Reid: Led by Russell Wilson, the Seattle Seahawks will overtake the 49ers in the NFC West. Winning the division will strengthen the MVP argument for Wilson and, much to Mina's delight, provide the springboard to the Seahawks' third Super Bowl appearance of the Pete Carroll era.
Schatz: Still-unbeaten San Francisco will not represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. There's just too much competition from other good teams, and the schedule gets much harder from here on out. We also don't know how the 49ers' offense would do having to come back from a deficit; they are the only team in the NFL that hasn't been down by more than one score yet this season.
Seifert: Kirk Cousins' roller-coaster performances will leave the Minnesota Vikings in no-man's land in planning their long-term future. A strong finish likely would compel them to extend a contract that expires after the 2020 season. A horrible finish might mean moving on. But Cousins will land somewhere in the middle, meaning he could enter 2020 in the final year of his deal and set up more franchise-tag-or-free-agency drama.
Yates: The Mitchell Trubisky era comes to an end for the Chicago Bears. This might not come across as bold, given the struggles of both the Bears and Trubisky so far this season, but it would have felt unfathomable a few months ago with Super Bowl buzz permeating Chicago. The Bears are limited by their offense, and it starts with Trubisky, whose confidence seems nonexistent at the moment.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Kimes: Damien Williams, RB, Chiefs. After a monster game against Minnesota, it's hard to go away from Williams. But I expect the Chiefs to lean more on the pass with Patrick Mahomes likely back against a Titans defense that's much, much better at stopping the run.
Reid: Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns. The disappointing Browns have lost four straight, and their second-year quarterback hasn't come close to living up to the hype. The Bills rank third in the league in passing yards allowed per game, so don't rely on Mayfield this week.
Schatz: Kenyan Drake, RB, Cardinals. The newest Cardinal had a great debut, with 162 total yards and a touchdown. But David Johnson is supposed to return this Sunday. Don't play either of them. Tampa Bay has the best run defense DVOA in the NFL and is near the bottom of the league in receiving yards per game allowed to running backs.
Seifert: Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals. Cincinnati has the worst rushing offense in the NFL at 59.5 yards per game. The Ravens have the best run defense in the league at 78.1 yards per game. Even if you think the Bengals will emphasize the run to protect rookie quarterback Ryan Finley, it's difficult to imagine the Ravens giving much up.
Yates: Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions. The veteran has been red hot of late, scorching opponents to the tune of 11 touchdowns over the past three games. But he next faces a still-excellent Bears defense that has allowed just eight passing touchdowns this season, while intercepting five passes, and has yet to surrender a 300-yard passing effort.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 10.
Kimes: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Lions. The Bears' defense is allowing the fourth-most points, on average, to tight ends. Enter Hockenson, who had a nice game against Oakland (56 yards) and should be on track for more targets.
Reid: Ronald Jones II, RB, Buccaneers. He was just named the Bucs' No. 1 back, and the Cardinals give up an average of 126.9 rushing yards per game.
Schatz: O.J. Howard, TE, Buccaneers. He is healthy for next week, and Arizona has the worst defense in the league against tight ends, both in DVOA and fantasy points allowed per game.
Seifert: Mark Ingram II, RB, Ravens. In addition to a terrible run offense, the Bengals, as it turns out, also have a horrible run defense. They're allowing an NFL-high 177.6 yards per game, 27 more than the next-highest team. And Ingram -- as well as the rest of the Ravens' offense -- should feast.
Yates: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans. Six quarterbacks head off for a bye this week, including customary starters Deshaun Watson, Tom Brady and Carson Wentz. Tannehill has started three games for Tennessee and has 19-plus fantasy points in each of them. He is athletic enough to do damage with his legs, as we saw in Week 9, and the Titans will need to keep up against a Kansas City offense that could welcome Mahomes back.