Analysts love to predict schedule strength before the season starts, and Football Outsiders is no different. But we know that schedule strength looks a lot different once some games have been played. We also know schedule strength plays a big role in deciding who gets into the NFL playoffs. Playoff races for the stretch run look a lot different when you know which teams are playing tough schedules and which teams have it easy.
For this article, we've gone through and analyzed each team's schedule both in the games so far (Weeks 1-8) and in the games to come (Weeks 9-17) based on Football Outsiders DVOA ratings (explained here). We're using a version of our DVOA ratings that still incorporates a little bit of our preseason projection, but most of the ratings we're using are based on 2019 performance. (This year's performance is 85% of the rating for teams with eight games and 75% for teams with seven games.) Our numbers also include adjustments for changes in quarterback situations, both in the future ratings and the past ratings. For example, the Chiefs are considered an easier team to play last week and this week because of the injury to Patrick Mahomes.
As we did before the season began, we've also made small adjustments based on a couple of important situations. All numbers are adjusted for home, road or neutral-site games, which is important because teams aren't all playing the same number of remaining home games. Opponents get a small adjustment if they are coming off a bye week, and a smaller adjustment if they are coming off a "half-bye" (Thursday night game). We've also given a small penalty to teams playing on the road on Thursday nights. These adjustments don't count if both teams are coming off the same amount of rest (i.e., both playing consecutive games off the bye week).
We're also going to take a look at schedules in terms of fantasy football scoring, analyzing which defenses have done the best preventing points at each position with small adjustments for home and away. We'll list some of the teams on the extremes below. When we rank fantasy schedules, we're adjusting for playoffs by removing Week 17 and doubling the value of Weeks 14-16. Here are all 32 teams ranked in order from hardest projected remaining schedule to the easiest:
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE
NO | NYG | NYJ | OAK | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
1. Chicago Bears
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 11.5%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: -1.0% (20)
In the preseason, we had the Bears ranked with the third-toughest schedule in the league this year. With updated numbers, we have them with the second-toughest schedule overall, and that schedule is heavily slanted toward the second half of the year. The Bears have five road games remaining, including trips to play the Eagles, Rams, Packers and Vikings. Chicago's final four opponents are all currently in the DVOA top six. Things will look particularly bad for the Chicago defense, as only the Chargers play a tougher remaining slate of opposing offenses.
2. Seattle Seahawks
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 11.4%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: -5.6% (25)
Chicago and Seattle are very close for the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL, but they get there in different ways. Chicago's remaining opponents are strong on offense. Seattle's remaining opponents are strong on defense. The biggest issue is two games against the 49ers, but the Rams and Panthers are also currently in the top five for defensive DVOA. Seattle also has to travel to Philadelphia and host Minnesota.
3. Atlanta Falcons
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 11.1%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 3.3% (14)
Using this methodology, the Falcons come out with the hardest schedule for the entire season, and that schedule gets harder after their Week 9 bye. The issue isn't as much that the Falcons play a ton of good teams. The problem is that they don't have any easy games. On their entire 16-game slate -- both the games they already played and the ones still to play -- Atlanta has only one contest against a team ranked 20th or lower in our DVOA ratings: Tennessee (24th). And the Falcons lost that game 24-10 back in Week 4. Atlanta still has all six division games on the schedule, and even Tampa Bay is ranked a reasonable 18th in DVOA this year. The Falcons also have to go to San Francisco in Week 15.
4. Arizona Cardinals
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 10.7%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: -1.1% (21)
Like Seattle, the Cardinals have to face the 49ers two times: Thursday night at home, and then two weeks later in San Francisco. After their Week 12 bye, the Cardinals have two games with the Rams among their final five contests. Only Baltimore played an easier schedule of opposing defenses over the first eight weeks, but only Seattle plays a tougher schedule of opposing defenses over the final nine weeks.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 9.6%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: -9.8% (28)
The Chargers' remaining schedule includes four road games, a neutral-site game in Mexico, and only three home games. Then again, perhaps that's better stated as four neutral-site games, given how many Chargers fans actually attend home games. Or maybe we could just call it eight road games. Even assuming the Chargers have a normal home-field advantage (which we did for this analysis), their schedule gets way tougher in the second half of the season. They have both games remaining against the Chiefs and the underrated Raiders (17th in DVOA), plus "home" games against both Green Bay and Minnesota. No team faces a tougher remaining schedule of offenses.
6. Tennessee Titans
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 8.0%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: -5.7% (26)
The Titans are hanging around the AFC playoff race at 4-4, but their schedule is about to get a lot harder. Part of that comes from playing in the division; the whole AFC South is 4-4 or better, and four of the Titans' six games after their Week 11 bye are in the division. The Titans also have to face the Chiefs, probably with Mahomes back, and the Saints. Oakland is the only team left on the schedule with a losing record.
Fantasy focus: Could Ryan Tannehill be a sneaky fantasy play, especially in two-quarterback leagues? Tennessee has the second-easiest remaining fantasy schedule for quarterbacks and wide receivers but one of the hardest for running backs. Teams such as Houston and New Orleans (Weeks 15-16) have better defenses in real life than in fantasy football but give up far more passing points than rushing points.
7. Los Angeles Rams
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 5.4%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 1.0% (17)
The rest of the Rams' schedule really has no gimmes, especially with the Cardinals now playing better. A Week 12 trip to Arizona looms as a possible upset, particularly because the Rams will be on a short week after a Monday night game against Baltimore while Arizona comes off its bye week. Also watch out for a two-week road trip that sends them to Dallas (with the Cowboys getting extra rest after a Thursday game) and San Francisco in Weeks 15 and 16.
Fantasy focus: On that note, the Rams' remaining fantasy schedule is the third-hardest for quarterback scoring and second-hardest for wide receiver scoring, particularly thanks to the trip to San Francisco when most fantasy leagues play their championship in Week 16.
8. Minnesota Vikings
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 5.3%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: -4.9% (24)
The hardest part of Minnesota's schedule comes over the next four games, which includes road trips to Kansas City (a tough game even if Mahomes isn't ready), Dallas and Seattle. The Vikings do get a break in between with a home game against Denver in Week 11 and a bye week in Week 12. And they end the season with three of their final four at home, all against division opponents.
Fantasy focus: In case things couldn't get any better for Dalvin Cook fantasy managers, the Vikings have the easiest remaining schedule when it comes to running back fantasy points allowed. In the fantasy playoffs, Minnesota plays Detroit, is at the Chargers and then hosts Green Bay: three games against defenses among the 10 allowing the most points to running backs, two of them at home.
9. San Francisco 49ers
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 4.5%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: -6.4% (27)
The 49ers' early schedule was easy, but just how easy has been somewhat overstated. They've beaten two teams with winning records, the Panthers and Rams, and they had to win four of their first seven games on the road. Week 12 is when things get really hard. Five of San Francisco's final six games are against teams with winning records. First, the 49ers host the Packers after Green Bay's bye week. Then come back-to-back trips to Baltimore and New Orleans (Weeks 13-14). After a palate cleanser against the Falcons at home, a rematch with the Rams is in San Francisco in Week 16. Then the season ends with a trip to Seattle, a tough game if the NFC West title is still up in the air.
Fantasy focus: San Francisco's remaining schedule is third for opposing offenses but only 27th for opposing defenses. George Kittle owners waiting for a breakout week should be happy that the 49ers have the best remaining schedule for fantasy football scoring by tight ends.
10. Denver Broncos
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 3.3%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 4.5% (9)
The Denver defense looks good and the offense looks bad, but the Broncos' schedule is designed to make things look the other way. For the entire year, Denver's schedule of opposing offenses ranks second but the schedule of opposing defenses ranks 28th. For Week 9 onward, those ranks are seventh for opposing offenses and 24th for defenses. Denver has to go on the road for four out of five games between Week 11 and Week 15. The only home game in there is Week 13 against the Chargers, who will be coming off their bye week.
11. Green Bay Packers
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 3.0%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 5.5% (7)
The Packers played three straight games against opponents with extra rest in Weeks 6-8 and won all three games. Now, five of Green Bay's final eight games are on the road, including its final two games, against NFC North opponents Minnesota and Detroit. Green Bay's defense should look better over the second half of the year, as it goes from the sixth-hardest schedule of opposing offenses to the 18th-hardest.
12. Dallas Cowboys
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 2.8%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: -11.5% (30)
Dallas has had it pretty easy so far, but things get harder from here. The Cowboys play five of their final nine games on the road, including a trip to Foxborough, Massachusetts, to play the Patriots in Week 12. They also play back-to-back Thursdays with a Thanksgiving game against Buffalo in Week 13 and a Thursday night contest at Chicago Week 14. The offense may not look as good over the second half of the year.
Fantasy focus: The Cowboys' schedule of opposing defenses goes from 27th in the first half to sixth from now on, and they also have one of the harder remaining fantasy football schedules at all positions.
13. Baltimore Ravens
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 2.7%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: -11.2% (29)
Similar to the Cowboys, Baltimore's schedule gets a lot tougher from here on out, starting with this week's game against New England. With both the Patriots and the 49ers on the remaining schedule, Baltimore goes from playing the easiest schedule of opposing defenses in Weeks 1-8 to the fourth-hardest schedule of opposing defenses in Weeks 9-17. In Weeks 10 and 11, the Ravens play back-to-back teams coming off bye weeks. This would be more frightening if the first of those games was not at Cincinnati with the Bengals giving a rookie quarterback his first NFL start. The second game is a bit tougher as a home contest against Houston.
Fantasy focus: Warning for Mark Andrews managers: Baltimore has the toughest remaining schedule for fantasy football tight ends points allowed.
14. Kansas City Chiefs
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 1.2%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 4.3% (10)
As far as the Chiefs' real-life schedule, it is pretty middle-of-the-road. The road matchup against the Patriots in Week 14 stands out, as the Chiefs would rank 27th without that game included. The Chiefs will play two opponents coming off Thursday games (Minnesota this week, the Chargers in Mexico in Week 11). Starting with that Chargers game, four of their final six games are in their division.
Fantasy focus: The Chiefs are usually a fantasy football scoring machine, but beware: They have the hardest remaining fantasy football schedule in the league, particularly when it comes to preventing points to quarterbacks and wide receivers. During the fantasy football playoffs, Weeks 14-16, the Chiefs play New England, Denver and Chicago, with two of those games on the road.
15. Washington Redskins
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 0.9%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 6.1% (6)
Before the season, we ranked Washington's schedule 22nd. As the only NFC team with both San Francisco and New England on the schedule, it now comes out as sixth for the entire year. That's the biggest difference of any team this season. However, that schedule is slanted toward the early part of the season, and things do get easier from here on out. Extremely hard games (at Green Bay, at Dallas) are balanced by much easier games (Jets and Giants at home).
16. Detroit Lions
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 0.7%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 2.5% (16)
The Lions have the closest thing to a perfectly average schedule this season. Their past schedule ranks 16th. Their future schedule ranks 16th. Their future schedule is also balanced between offense and defense. And the Lions have no games all year against opponents who were coming off a bye week or even a Thursday game. Five of the Lions' final nine games are on the road, and while the toughest game on the schedule is at Minnesota in Week 14, the toughest stretch is over the next three games: at Oakland, at Chicago and then Dallas at home.
17. Houston Texans
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 0.5%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 4.7% (8)
The schedule is about to flip around to make the Houston offense look worse and the Houston defense look better. Remember that in a few weeks if anyone suggests that the J.J. Watt injury didn't matter because the Texans didn't start giving up more points. In the first eight weeks, Houston played the league's toughest schedule of opposing offenses but the No. 25 schedule of opposing defenses. Now that flips, with the remaining schedule ranking No. 26 in opposing offenses but fifth in opposing defenses. Say goodbye to offense-first teams, such as Atlanta and Kansas City, from the first half of the year. Instead, here come the defense-oriented teams such as New England, Denver and Tennessee (twice).
Fantasy focus: Those remaining opponents are particularly hard on running backs, with the hardest remaining schedule of fantasy points allowed to running backs. Houston plays Tampa Bay, the No. 1 run defense in DVOA, during fantasy championship week (Week 16).
18. Carolina Panthers
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: 0.4%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 3.7% (13)
We've reached the NFC South portion of the program, with the next three teams from that division. Carolina has played both of its Tampa Bay games already, going 1-1, but the Panthers still have two games against Atlanta (which appear easy) and two games against New Orleans (which appear hard). A trip to Green Bay in Week 10 also looks particularly difficult.
Fantasy focus: Like Houston, Carolina's schedule is about to flip. In Weeks 1-8, Carolina had the No. 18 schedule of opposing offenses but the No. 7 schedule of opposing defenses. From Week 9 onward, that switches to the No. 6 schedule of opposing offenses but the No. 26 schedule of opposing defenses.
19. New Orleans Saints
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: -1.7%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 4.0% (12)
The Saints are another team whose schedule for the whole year comes out as very average: 15th on the whole season, which breaks down to 16th for their offense and 15th for their defense. Five of the final eight New Orleans games are within the NFC South. The 49ers present the toughest remaining opponent, but that game (Week 14) is in New Orleans.
Fantasy focus: New Orleans has one of the harder remaining fantasy schedules for running backs, especially during the fantasy playoffs, but one of the easier remaining fantasy schedules for wide receivers.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: -1.8%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 7.9% (4)
We predicted Tampa Bay would have the toughest schedule in the league before the season, but its full-season schedule now ranks 11th and the hardest games are mostly in the past. After this week's trip to Seattle, five of the final eight Tampa Bay games are at home.
Fantasy focus: The Bucs faced the No. 3 schedule of opposing defenses in Weeks 1-8, but they face the No. 30 schedule of opposing defenses in Weeks 9-17. They also have one of the best remaining schedules for wide receiver fantasy points.
21. Indianapolis Colts
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: -1.8%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: -3.5% (23)
A Week 10 home game against Miami sticks out on this schedule. Take that game out, and the difficulty of Indianapolis' remaining schedule zooms up from 21st to seventh. Five of the Colts' remaining nine games are on the road, including four of the final six. That stretch includes a Week 12 trip to Houston that will be significantly important for the AFC South division title race and a trip to New Orleans for Monday Night Football in Week 15. Oddly, three of the final four games are against NFC South teams before the Colts finish up at Jacksonville in Week 17.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: -3.2%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: -2.5% (22)
Here's another situation where the opponent strength is about to flip. The overall schedule strength stays constant at 22nd, but the offenses faced get harder while the defenses faced get easier. Jacksonville's next three games are all in the division: Houston at home before the bye and then back-to-back road games against Indianapolis and Tennessee (in Week 12, coming off a bye). After that, the Jaguars go outside their division for four weeks before they end with Indianapolis at home.
Fantasy focus: The Jaguars have the second-easiest remaining schedule for wide receiver fantasy points, particularly with games against the Raiders and Falcons during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-16).
23. New England Patriots
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: -3.7%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: -20.1% (32)
We predicted before the season that the Patriots would have the easiest schedule in the NFL this year, and it looks like we were right. They certainly had the easiest schedule for the first eight weeks of the season. Every single one of their opponents ranks 20th or worse in DVOA right now. Based on this analysis, the Patriots will finish the season with an average opponent DVOA of -11.8%. That would be the third-easiest schedule we've ever measured, since 1986, trailing only the 1999 Rams (-15.7%) and 1991 Bills (-14.3%). But hey, those teams both made the Super Bowl. An easy schedule is a nice bonus when you're trying to secure the No. 1 seed, which the Patriots earn in 90% of our current simulations.
However, things are about to get more difficult, at least for the next few weeks. Each of New England's next five opponents ranks 13th in DVOA or higher, and the two teams that are lowest in DVOA (Philadelphia and Houston) are road games. This difficult stretch also includes a game at Baltimore on Sunday night, plus home games against Dallas and Kansas City. Then things end much easier, with a trip to Cincinnati and home games against the Bills and Dolphins.
Fantasy focus: James White and Sony Michel managers should be happy that the Patriots have one of the easiest remaining schedules when it comes to running back fantasy points allowed, including games with Kansas City and Cincinnati during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-15).
24. Miami Dolphins
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: -4.5%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 4.3% (11)
Miami is the worst team ever measured by DVOA through seven games of a season, but only 16.6% of our current simulations have the Dolphins finishing at 0-16. This schedule is the reason. Six of Miami's final nine games come against teams that also rank in the bottom 10 of DVOA. That includes 5-2 Buffalo, as well as Cleveland, Cincinnati, the Giants and the Jets (twice).
If we removed the Week 17 game against the Patriots, the only thing keeping the Dolphins from having the league's easiest remaining schedule would be the fact that they don't get to play themselves. Most of the teams with easier future schedules are Miami's future opponents.
25. Buffalo Bills
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: -4.6%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: -13.5% (31)
A very easy early schedule is a big reason the Bills are 5-2 despite ranking just 25th in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings. A not-quite-as-easy remaining schedule is a big reason the Bills make the playoffs in more than 50% of our season simulations despite ranking 25th. Thanksgiving at Dallas and a trip to Foxborough in Week 16 will be very difficult matchups. But the Bills' schedule also includes trips to Miami and Cleveland, plus home games against Washington, the now quarterback-hobbled Broncos and the Jets.
Fantasy focus: Buffalo's remaining schedule is a lot harder for fantasy football than it is in real football. The Bills play the second-hardest schedule for quarterbacks and the hardest for running backs. Their schedule during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16) includes Baltimore at home and Pittsburgh and New England on the road.
26. New York Giants
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: -5.1%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 3.2% (15)
The Giants play their hardest remaining game this week, taking on the Cowboys off of Dallas' bye week. After that, things get easier despite playing four of the final seven games on the road. There's a tough string that goes at Chicago, Green Bay at home and then at Philadelphia. But before that, the Giants get to play "at" the Jets in Week 10, and afterward they get Miami in Week 15 at home and then go to Washington in Week 16.
Stephen A. Smith acknowledges that it's a long shot, but he is still hoping the Steelers will find a way to win the AFC North.
27. Pittsburgh Steelers
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: -5.4%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: -0.8% (19)
A week ago, Pittsburgh's adjusted DVOA of past opponents would have ranked second. Now it ranks 19th. That's the effect of a home game against the 2019 Dolphins: strong enough to balance out games against both New England and San Francisco. But even with Miami out of the way now, the Steelers' remaining schedule is pretty easy. Five of the final seven games are on the road, but those trips include the Browns, Bengals, Cardinals and Jets. Home games in December include Cleveland and Buffalo. This easy schedule is why the 3-4 Steelers are still in the AFC playoff hunt.
28. Cincinnati Bengals
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: -6.2%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 6.2% (5)
Even with a game against New England still on the schedule, things are getting much easier for Cincinnati for the rest of the season. Five of Cincy's eight remaining games are at home. December is remarkably easy except for that game against the Patriots. In Weeks 13 and 14, the Bengals face the Jets at home and take a trip to Cleveland. Weeks 16 and 17 are a trip to Miami and then Cleveland at home. Cincinnati has been better than Miami, and the Bengals' schedule is even easier, so we give them even less of a chance to finish 0-16: just 4.1%.
29. Oakland Raiders
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: -6.3%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 10.1% (3)
Like Pittsburgh, an easy remaining schedule keeps Oakland in the playoff race, even at 3-4. This is the easiest remaining schedule that doesn't have Miami on it, and it's a huge turnaround from the difficult schedule Oakland has played so far. The change is particularly dramatic when it comes to opposing offensive strength. In Weeks 1-8, only Houston faced a harder schedule of opposing offenses. In Weeks 9-17, the Oakland schedule of opposing offenses ranks 22nd.
Oakland gets three straight home games over the next three weeks against the Lions, Chargers and Bengals. The only team left on its schedule that ranks in the DVOA top 12 is Kansas City, but that's a very tough game in Week 13: on the road and with the Chiefs coming off their bye.
30. Philadelphia Eagles
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: -8.3%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 0.3% (18)
Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings currently have Dallas (fourth) significantly ahead of Philadelphia (12th); along with a half-game lead and a head-to-head win, that makes Dallas our current favorite to win the NFC East. But the difference between the Cowboys' upcoming schedule (12th) and the Eagles' schedule makes the NFC East race closer than it would be otherwise.
Five of Philadelphia's eight remaining games are at home. Yes, New England is one of those opponents at Lincoln Financial Field. However, December should be remarkably easy for the Eagles. Four of Philadelphia's final five games come against teams at the bottom of the DVOA ratings, including a game at Miami (32nd), a game at Washington (29th) and a home-and-home set with the New York Giants (26th). The tough game in December is Week 16, when the Eagles host the rematch with Dallas.
31. Cleveland Browns
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: -20.1%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 13.2% (1)
You may have noticed that in raw numbers, there's a colossal gap between the other 30 teams and the last two when it comes to remaining schedule strength. These last two teams, the Browns and Jets, have also played the toughest schedules so far. Things are about to substantially change for these teams, so look out for "young quarterback puts things together at midseason" narratives.
Cleveland plays five of its final eight games at home, and five of its final eight are in the division. The Browns are the only team with two games left against Cincinnati, and they also get a home game against Miami. Baltimore (a home game, Week 16) is the only opponent left on the Cleveland schedule that is above average in DVOA. Cleveland has the easiest remaining schedule of opposing offenses and the second-easiest remaining schedule of opposing defenses, behind only the Jets.
32. New York Jets
Adjusted DVOA of remaining opponents: -20.6%
Adjusted DVOA of past opponents: 12.7% (2)
Similar to the situation for Cleveland, things are about to get much easier for the New York Jets. The Jets are the only team that still gets to play Miami twice, and Miami is by far the worst team in our ratings this year. (The Jets may not beat Miami twice, but that's on them. At least they get the opportunity.) Just as with Cleveland, Baltimore (on the road, Week 15) is the only opponent left on the Jets' schedule that's currently above average in DVOA, although Oakland (home, Week 12) is close. A game at Washington is also probably harder than it looks at first glance, which is a road game off of Washington's bye week.
The Jets have the easiest remaining schedule of opposing defenses and the second-easiest remaining schedule of opposing offenses, behind only the Browns.