Two of the NFL's top five quarterbacks will face each other on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. Both are products of the 2017 draft.
But neither was the first quarterback selected in that draft.
Nine teams passed on one of them. Eleven teams passed on the other. That doesn't count the franchises that traded out of their spots to allow the Kansas City Chiefs to select Patrick Mahomes at No. 10 overall and the Houston Texans to follow up by drafting Deshaun Watson at No. 12.
In retrospect, it's easy to question why Mahomes and Watson weren't the top two players drafted. Some might prefer to scream obscenities from their rooftops, asking in vain for a redo. Sadly, there are no redos, but we can always look back to see where it all went wrong -- and dream of what those two QBs could have done for other franchises.
In this re-draft of the top 10 picks of 2017, I reversed trades that took place on draft day, and when possible, I stayed true to the team's personnel intentions, even when it comes to running backs, who in general don't need to be drafted this high. Let's turn back the clock to April 2017.
Jump to:
1. CLE | 2. SF | 3. CHI | 4. JAX
5. TEN | 6. NYJ | 7. LAC
8. CAR | 9. CIN | 10. BUF
1. Cleveland Browns: Patrick Mahomes, QB
Actual No. 1 pick: Myles Garrett, DE
The Browns passed on the Jared Goff/Carson Wentz quarterback class in 2016 and then finished 1-15 with Robert Griffin, Josh McCown and Cody Kessler all getting starts at quarterback. There was no one waiting in the wings and every reason to be seeking a new passer at the top of the draft.
But the Browns had their eyes elsewhere. They, along with many other teams, thought Garrett, a pass-rusher out of Texas A&M, was the best player in the draft. To be clear, Garrett has become a transcendent player, with 27.5 sacks in his first 32 NFL games. He would have been an obvious choice for a team with a high-end quarterback.
Teams with really good quarterbacks don't wind up at the top of the draft, of course. The Browns weren't the only team concerned about Mahomes' freestyle form of play. Even while acknowledging his rifle arm, some worried that Mahomes couldn't be steered into becoming an NFL passer because of his tendency to break the pocket and make off-schedule throws. The Browns were among the teams to overthink that concern.
This is where we point out that Mahomes wound up in the nurturing care of Chiefs coach Andy Reid, one of the best QB developers and innovative offensive minds in football. In Cleveland, he would have instead been paired with coach Hue Jackson and probably thrust onto the field a year earlier than he was with the Chiefs and with far fewer weapons than Kansas City afforded him.
Look at how the Browns' season played out. They drafted Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer in the second round and started him for 15 games. He threw twice as many interceptions (22) as touchdown passes (11), and the Browns stumbled to an 0-16 finish -- one that put them in position to draft Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield at No. 1 in 2018.
Are the Browns better off with Mayfield and Garrett than with Mahomes alone? They also could have drafted Watson at No. 12 overall, but they traded the pick to the Texans. In that case, you would have to judge whether they would have been better off with Garrett and Watson, rather than Garrett and the bounty they received from the Texans, which included safety Jabrill Peppers and cornerback Denzel Ward. (Peppers was part of the trade that brought receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to the Browns this spring.)
They are all fair questions, especially when you wonder if Mahomes would have been the same in Cleveland with substandard coaching and fewer weapons. But Mayfield's path to stardom is in no way certain as he struggles through his first full season as a starter. And we now know that Mahomes has MVP-level skills, and Watson isn't far behind. Concerns about their styles of play were largely unfounded.
2. San Francisco 49ers: Deshaun Watson, QB
Actual No. 2 pick (CHI traded up): Mitchell Trubisky, QB
Original SF pick at No. 3: Solomon Thomas, DL
The 49ers were in an ideal position to draft a franchise quarterback. They had just hired general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan, and they had a prime spot in the draft order. But each had signed unusually long, six-year contracts and didn't act with the urgency that many other regimes would have felt in that position.
Instead, the Niners signed veteran Brian Hoyer to start and traded down one spot in the round on draft day. At No. 3, the Niners drafted Thomas and then used one of the picks they acquired in the deal to move back up and draft linebacker Reuben Foster at No. 31. Linebacker Fred Warner (third round, 2018) and receiver Dante Pettis (second round, 2018) are among the other byproducts of the deal.
None of those picks has produced a dynamic, enduring player. Thomas has been serviceable but hasn't developed into the kind of force expected from a top-five pick, and Foster was released in 2018 for off-field reasons. It's fair to point out that the 49ers were widely believed to be prepared to pursue Kirk Cousins during free agency after the 2017 season, before they acquired quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for a second-round choice. But Garoppolo's ensuing contract extension robbed the franchise of the important value of having a good, young quarterback locked into five years of low salary-cap numbers.
Fair or not, many teams pegged Watson as a zone-read specialist whose team would need to overhaul its scheme to fit him in. Shanahan had done just that for Griffin when he was the Washington Redskins' offensive coordinator in 2012, and the Texans wound up doing the same when Watson entered the starting lineup in 2017.
But we know now that Watson -- unlike Griffin -- has quickly developed into an aggressive and accurate passer. In his first 28 starts, he has produced three games with five touchdowns and no interceptions. His style of play fits perfectly into today's NFL, and if anything, the 49ers blundered worse by passing on him than the Browns did by not taking Mahomes.
3. Chicago Bears: Myles Garrett, DE
Actual No. 3 pick (SF traded down): Solomon Thomas, DL
Original CHI pick at No. 2: Mitchell Trubisky, QB
Instead of shocking the NFL world by moving up to draft Trubisky at No. 2, the Bears sit tight in our re-draft and get the next Khalil Mack a year before they traded for the actual one. After an injury-shortened rookie season with seven sacks, Garrett had 13.5 sacks in 2018 and already has seven through five games in 2019.
To be sure, the Bears would have faced the same initial criticism had they traded up to draft Watson or Mahomes at No. 2. The difference, of course, is that Trubisky is now several tiers away from them. Before he suffered a shoulder injury in Week 4, he ranked No. 28 in QBR (32.5), and the Bears were running a no-huddle offense so that their coaches could make playcall adjustments for him before the speaker in his helmet shut off by rule with 15 seconds left on the play clock. He has produced some nice moments but remains a below-average player at his position.
With the benefit of hindsight, it's difficult to imagine that Trubisky would be a first-round pick at all, let alone a top-five selection. There aren't many people in the NFL who think Trubisky's development has been botched or neglected -- especially considering he's played under head coach Matt Nagy -- yet he hasn't progressed to a point that justifies the No. 2 overall pick.
Taking Garrett here would have left the Bears without a quarterback for 2017, as they had moved on from Jay Cutler. But it's fair to ask whether the circumstances are any different with Trubisky on the roster. Garrett's arrival would have made the Bears less likely to trade for Mack, too, which would have left them better equipped moving forward to draft a quarterback in 2018 or even 2019 if needed.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: Christian McCaffrey, RB
Actual No. 4 pick: Leonard Fournette, RB
I don't advocate drafting running backs this high, given their short career spans and the relative surplus of good players at the position. But if the Jaguars were hell-bent on taking one here, to fit executive vice president Tom Coughlin's old-school vision, then McCaffrey -- who went four picks later to Carolina -- is the best choice.
The Jaguars went with Fournette, a traditional bruising tailback who has plodded along for an average of 76 rushing yards per game when he has played but has also missed 11 games for various reasons. McCaffrey is a dynamic two-way playmaker, as required of today's top running backs. He is a leading candidate for MVP this season; through five games, he has 16% more yards from scrimmage than the next-highest producing player.
5. Tennessee Titans: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
Actual No. 5 pick: Corey Davis, WR
This pick originated with the Los Angeles Rams, who traded it to the Titans as part of the 2016 deal to select quarterback Goff. The Titans' intent was clear: Find a downfield weapon for quarterback Marcus Mariota, who in his first two seasons completed only 32 passes that traveled at least 20 yards in the air (23rd in NFL). Smith-Schuster -- taken No. 62 overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers -- has caught 15 such passes in 35 career games, and in that period, only eight receivers have totaled more receiving yards than he has (2,678).
The Titans' pick here, Davis, has shown some promise, and it's fair to wonder what his production would be like if he had been in the Steelers' offense instead of Smith-Schuster. But we don't need to wonder what Smith-Schuster would have done, and that makes him a better choice here.
6. New York Jets: Jamal Adams, S
Actual No. 6 pick: Jamal Adams, S
Three years ago, many thought Adams was the second-best player in this draft, a safety who was as comfortable and effective playing near the line of scrimmage as he was covering the deep middle of the field. A player with such a versatile skill base can give defensive coordinators a rare set of options.
The Jets' NFL-worst 9-27 record since the start of 2017 season has clouded perceptions of Adams' performance. He has only two career interceptions, another indicator many in the public use to evaluate safeties, while Bears safety Eddie Jackson -- a fourth-round pick in 2017 -- has grabbed eight. You could make an argument here for a pass-rusher such as Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt (No. 30 overall), but in keeping with the Jets' philosophy at the time, Adams remains a defensible choice.
7. Los Angeles Chargers: Kenny Golladay, WR
Actual No. 7 pick: Mike Williams, WR
When you're trying to maximize the twilight of quarterback Philip Rivers' career, it makes sense to load up on playmakers. The Chargers' choice in 2017 was Williams, whose 6-foot-4 frame and reach made him a natural sidekick to Keenan Allen. But injuries limited him to 10 games as a rookie, and even though he caught 10 touchdowns in 2018, Williams has managed only 68 receptions overall in 30 games with Rivers.
In retrospect, there are a number of receivers who would have made better choices. One is Cooper Kupp, a Rams third-round pick who has turned into a reliable big-play threat for Goff. But I went with Golladay, who more closely fits what the Chargers were seeking in Williams -- and he has nearly twice as many receptions for the Detroit Lions after they selected him 96th in 2017.
8. Carolina Panthers: Alvin Kamara, RB
Actual No. 8 pick: Christian McCaffrey, RB
With McCaffrey already off the board, the Panthers look to a player with similar skills and one who has been more productive on a per-touch basis. Like McCaffrey, Kamara is equally dangerous in the passing and running games. Kamara, originally drafted No. 67 overall, has averaged 6.5 yards every time he has touched the ball for the New Orleans Saints, and McCaffrey has averaged 5.9.
Fellow 2017 draftee Dalvin Cook, another dual-threat running back who was selected by the Minnesota Vikings at No. 41 overall, is having a monster season in 2019 but was injured for significant portions of his first two seasons. If the Panthers wanted a versatile playmaker for quarterback Cam Newton to use as a crutch, Kamara would have been every bit the player McCaffrey has been.
9. Cincinnati Bengals: George Kittle, TE
Actual No. 9 pick: John Ross III, WR
The Bengals were understandably looking for some offensive firepower in this draft, but their decision to select Ross -- whose draft value spiked when he ran a 4.22 in the 40-yard dash at the February scouting combine -- was suspect from the start. Injuries have contributed to his catching only 37 passes in three seasons.
The best offensive playmaker for the Bengals at the time might have been Kittle, a fifth-round pick who has caught 154 passes for 2,127 yards in that period for the 49ers -- more than every other NFL tight end except Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz. The Bengals had no way of knowing that their tight end of the moment, Tyler Eifert, would be unable to remain a full-time player following injuries to his ankle and back. But in retrospect, we do.
10. Buffalo Bills: Ryan Ramczyk, RT
Actual No. 10 pick (KC traded up): Patrick Mahomes, QB
Original BUF pick at No. 27: Tre'Davious White, CB
This is where the Bills made their fateful decision to trade down and allow the Chiefs to swoop up Mahomes. They had gone 15-17 the previous two seasons with Tyrod Taylor as their primary starter but decided to stand pat for another season. Although they made the playoffs in 2017, the Bills moved on from Taylor and ultimately were left to draft Josh Allen in 2018.
It will take a massive reversal for the Bills to wish they had Allen instead of Mahomes or Watson, even when you factor in the additional players they ultimately acquired -- White and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, among others -- with the extra picks. White, who has eight interceptions the past three seasons, wouldn't be a terrible pick here, 17 slots ahead of where they selected him. Nor would Saints corner Marshon Lattimore (No. 11), the Steelers' Watt (No. 30) or the Bears' Jackson (No. 112).
But in terms of team building, locking in Ramczyk as an offensive line anchor would have made the most sense. Drafted No. 32 overall by the Saints, Ramczyk has never made the Pro Bowl but is generally considered a top-five player at his position. This pick would have eased the urgency the Bills faced in the 2019 offseason, when they signed six veteran free-agent linemen and drafted Cody Ford in the second round.