The question is simple enough, and one that launches timely bar debate: If you could pick any current NFL quarterback to win you one game, who ya got?
The league is in great hands under center. Aging stars are still tearing it up, young passers are coming for their spots and at least a dozen quarterbacks might be good enough to spark a Super Bowl run.
Still, some consider the question rhetorical. "Really?" one NFL scouting director responded. "Give me the GOAT."
We asked 25 evaluators -- mostly NFL coaches, scouts and execs -- to make their selections. Don't worry about scheme, protections, weather. ... Just pick your top guy and go win. There's a clear victor and a clear nod to the future.
The winner: Tom Brady (14 votes)
Brady's mushrooming case as the best ever was always going to garner a healthy number of votes, but perhaps his 1977 birth year would sway results. No chance. Physical tools comprise a small fraction of Brady's greatness, voters say.
This is about engineering. And in a big-game setting, they'll take his mind all day.
"There's a level of confidence he gives everyone around him in those moments," one NFC scout said. "Not sure that any of the young guys are at that level yet."
Added one AFC exec: "Smarts, swagger and opponents know he's going to win."
And he wins 77.9% of the time, easily the best clip in NFL history among longtime starters.
Brady doesn't dominate every statistic that quantifies clutch play. Drew Brees and Peyton Manning edge Brady in game-winning drives (44) and fourth-quarter touchdown passes (123), though he's entered plenty of fourth quarters with a sizable lead, given his 211 career wins. His fourth-quarter QBR of 70.9 since 2006 ranks a modest 10th.
But one defensive coach who went against him in two Super Bowls said no player challenges in-game adjustments more. He's the best at countering different coverages and capitalizing on weaknesses. That shows up in postseason play, when Brady has 13 game-winning drives in 40 games. The next closest active quarterback is Eli Manning with five, followed by Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger, with four apiece. No other quarterback is close to Brady's 30-10 postseason record.
"Whether it be a backup in the game or a misalignment or assignment, his ability to process information during the game, adjusting and applying it, is like no other," the coach said. "Most players and coaches have to wait until they see the film after the game. Against Tom, you have to be the best-adjusting team in the league on game day, not hours after, because he sees everything in the moment. That's what separates him."
Brady's play over the past 10 months hasn't been perfect, which helps Mahomes' case slightly. Brady is coming off a pedestrian (for his standards) Super Bowl performance, completing 21 of 35 passes for 262 yards and an interception. This season, he's pacing for a career-worst QBR at 63.0, tying his 2013 performance.
But the 42-year-old Brady is still throwing for more touchdowns (10) and yards (1,409) through five games than his 2009 self over the same span (six touchdowns, 1,344 yards). Brady is on pace for his second 30-touchdown season in three years since turning 40, compared with six 30-score seasons before 40. He's just as aggressive downfield, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt in his 40s compared with 7.8 in his 30s.
Voters largely don't care about the numbers, because as one scout pointed out, his mind plays tricks on opponents. "He instills fear," the scout said. "Teams know he's going to find a way to beat them, even on his bad days."
The runner-up: Patrick Mahomes (seven votes)
Check back in December, and Mahomes might close this gap even further. His relative inexperience -- with 22 career starts dating back to his rookie year in 2017 -- is the only thing holding him back.
One personnel evaluator likened Mahomes' "wow" factor to Dan Marino's arrival on the scene in 1983. The arm talent looks freakier by the week.
"He's doing things at such an early point in his career that we've never seen before," one personnel evaluator said. "The game looks so effortless to him."
When it comes to big moments, Mahomes loves pressure -- literally. Mahomes leads all current quarterbacks in QBR when pressured in the pocket (70.9), averaging 6.75 yards per attempt with 13 touchdowns to seven interceptions. He's currently pacing for a ho-hum 5,859 passing yards in 2019.
One AFC scout said he doesn't remember teams stumping for Mahomes before the 2017 draft, and "now he's taking over our league."
"From what I've heard, the dude is made of all the right stuff," one NFC coach said. "I also think he is the most talented guy in the league, can do some ridiculous things with the ball throwing it, and he has the escapability and mobility."
What hurts Mahomes in his case against Brady: the 2018 AFC Championship Game. Mahomes' biggest game of his short career was arguably his worst, completing 16 of 31 passes for 295 yards and three touchdowns as the Chiefs were listless for the first 30 minutes of play.
He hasn't done it on the biggest stage, his detractors say. He will soon enough, his supporters declare.
Also receiving votes: Russell Wilson (2), Ben Roethlisberger (1), Drew Brees (1)
Watching Wilson carve up the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night was another reminder of why he deserves votes. Wilson has 25 game-winning drives in 117 starts, which means he's pulling off such heroics at least three times each regular season on average. His fourth-quarter numbers are phenomenal, with 72 touchdown passes to 16 interceptions (4.5-1 ratio) and 8.3 yards per passing attempt, better than Brady, Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Roethlisberger.
"He just has the 'it' factor in crucial moments," one NFC exec said.
One AFC scout gives Big Ben the nod, with a convincing argument on the mismatches he creates late in games.
"Difficult to defend due to experience, strength and mobility," the scout said. "If you pressure, he can shake off a tackler and extend the play with numbers. If you back off, he is patient enough to dink and dunk. In a one-game situation, he can make plays beyond the chalkboard."
Roethlisberger owns 42 fourth-quarter comebacks, trailing Brady and Brees among current quarterbacks, and he led the league in passing in 2018, his 15th consecutive season without a losing record.
Though Brees leads all NFL players in passing yards, fourth-quarter touchdowns and game-winning drives since 2000, he might be guilty by association. There are two great quarterbacks flourishing at age 40 and older, and the same guy will get the nod most times. But with Brees, one NFC coach pointed out, there's nothing he can't do well, and the consistency in late-game situations strengthens any game plan.
"Smart and the ultimate competitor," said one NFC coach.
Wait... No Aaron Rodgers?
This was a mild surprise. He was mentioned often as second option, with a lot of, "Well, you couldn't go wrong with Rodgers, but ..."
Many voters agreed Rodgers and Mahomes are in their own stratosphere as gifted passers, with the ability to throw accurately from any arm angle or body contortion. But as one scout said, Mahomes wins the tiebreaker because he's the newer, shinier model; this is not to knock Rodgers, just to acknowledge Mahomes' play requires a consistent double take right now.
Rodgers' immense talent overrides any convenient storyline that he's difficult to work with, one exec said.
"He hasn't had enough help around him," the exec said. "Some of the losing in recent years probably hurts his case, but that's hardly all on him."
One thing that can't be taken away from Rodgers: His lethal play against the blitz. Since 2012, Rodgers has a 4.4 touchdown-to-interception ratio (40 touchdowns, nine interceptions) when teams bring pressure, the best clip among quarterbacks on this list.
Looking ahead: Mahomes might overtake Brady soon enough
Brady's championship pedigree provides comfort in this setting. Uttering the words "six rings" is the only necessary explanation for the Brady pick. Everyone knows exactly what they are getting.
But those who voted for Mahomes didn't need a debate, either. "Hands down," said one longtime NFL backup quarterback when declaring his vote for Mahomes. "What he's doing is silly."
And Brady's margin of victory was even larger through the first wave of voting, before Mahomes put his early-season 2019 work on film. In a two-man race, an AFC Championship Game rematch might force a recast.