Is Jalen Hurts a legit NFL prospect? Kiper & McShay debate

One of the biggest stories of the college football season has been the dominance of Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts, who transferred from Alabama and is leading the race for the Heisman Trophy. Could he follow in the footsteps of former Sooners signal-callers Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray and be a first-round pick?

We asked ESPN NFL draft experts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay to evaluate Hurts' pro potential, where he fits in the 2020 NFL draft and how he compares to Mayfield and Murray.

Jump below for Kiper and McShay's picks for biggest risers and under-the-radar prospects to watch.

Jalen Hurts' NFL potential

Kiper: I didn't expect to see this Hurts for the Sooners. In his first two seasons at Alabama -- he went 26-2 with a national title as a starter from 2016 to 2017 -- I didn't think he was an NFL prospect. He just wasn't accurate enough as a passer. I thought maybe he was going to be another star college quarterback who just wasn't good enough for the NFL, which happens all the time. But then he looked a little bit different last season when he filled in for Tua Tagovailoa. His mechanics looked much better, and his accuracy improved.

McShay: He has continued that improvement at Oklahoma, showing off above-average arm strength and top-tier athleticism as a dual-threat quarterback. Hurts was a winner at Alabama and got the job done in big moments. But his numbers have popped to a new level this season as he learns under Lincoln Riley, who of course produced the past two Heisman Trophy winners and No. 1 picks in Mayfield and Murray. Hurts seems to be worrying less about making mistakes or turning the ball over and instead is playing more "grip-it-and-rip-it" football.

Kiper: The word I've used most when describing Hurts' rate of improvement? Astonishing. It's night and day from 2016 to now. How much of this improvement are you putting on Riley's system, Todd?

McShay: It has been tough for me to make a true evaluation off Hurts' five games at Oklahoma because I'm weighing 30-plus games at Bama versus what he is doing under Riley as a senior. And this system churns out quarterback production. Riley is a wizard in scheming open receivers, and it is making Hurts look good by reducing the difficulty of the throws. One example: Hurts is completing 69% of his passes thrown 10 or more yards in the air, up from 46.4% during his time at Bama. That's at least partially due to how open pass-catchers are in this system.

Kiper: I would say we have to give Hurts a little more credit here, Todd. This transformation started last season under former Bama quarterbacks coach Dan Enos. Without Hurts' arm, Alabama would not have won that SEC title game. He threw a much better ball than he did as a freshman and sophomore. That has continued this season, of course, as Hurts is averaging 14 yards per attempt after averaging 7.6 yards from 2016 to 2017. That's a huge improvement. Overall, he is completing 75.2% of his passes with 14 TDs and two interceptions, and he has rushed for 499 yards (8.8 per carry) with seven touchdowns. His 96.9 Total QBR leads the country.

McShay: But will those numbers translate to the next level? I'm not so sure.

Kiper: We're still early here, and Oklahoma hasn't played a good team yet. That changes this weekend against Texas down in Dallas. But what absolutely translates to the NFL is Hurts' decision-making, as he rarely turns the ball over. He also has shown the ability to throw accurately on the run or step up in the pocket and deliver a ball downfield. The throw that comes to mind is his 74-yard catch-and-run to Charleston Rambo against Texas Tech. Hurts has NFL traits.

McShay: Hurts is a top-three quarterback in college football this season, no doubt, but the harsh reality is that he isn't a top-five quarterback prospect in this 2020 class. What concerns me is the slow delivery, and he needs to speed up his play processing and get the ball out more quickly. Riley has masked some of those lingering accuracy concerns by giving him open targets. Can Hurts consistently make good throws into tight windows?

Kiper: That's totally fair. Those tight-window throws separate Hurts from Mayfield and Murray, as those passes are what made them No. 1 picks. Hurts isn't going to be a No. 1 pick. But he is going to be drafted, and that's more than I thought after his sophomore season in 2017. Where do you have him, Todd?

McShay: I see Hurts as a Day 3 prospect right now, and a few people I've talked to around the league agree. Actually, I think the third round could be his ceiling. But you have to factor in how Mayfield's and Murray's seasons go. If they look impressive, the Riley factor gets an even bigger bump. After all, Mayfield's first-year success helped Murray's stock. If Mayfield remains inconsistent in Year 2 and Murray continues his rookie struggles, expect the "Riley scheme" narrative to dull NFL teams' interest in taking an early-round gamble on Hurts.

Kiper: I'm more optimistic here. I don't think Hurts is going to be a first-round pick, but he could land in Round 2 if he keeps playing this well. I want to see him against the Longhorns and better competition the rest of the way. Remember, he is doing this for an OU team that replaced four starters along the offensive line and lost its best receiver in Marquise Brown, who was drafted in Round 1 by the Baltimore Ravens. I don't think Hurts is a fluke. He's legit.

Prospects on the rise

These are the 2020 NFL draft prospects moving up boards:

Jordyn Brooks, LB, Texas Tech

Brooks had a huge game in the Red Raiders' win over Oklahoma State on Saturday, racking up 19 tackles with three sacks and a forced fumble. He has 10.5 tackles for loss this season, up from 7.5 in all of 2018. Brooks, who plays inside and outside linebacker, is a tackling machine with a chiseled 6-foot-1, 245-pound frame. He has great diagnostic ability at the snap, and he gets a tremendous jump on the ball. He takes good angles and doesn't waste steps, and I think he'll test well at the combine. I've been so impressed by Brooks' improvement this season. Right now, he is a solid Day 2 pick on my board for 2020. -- Kiper

Darius Stills, DT, West Virginia

To be clear, I'm not certain that Stills, a junior, will leave school and declare for the draft after this season. I would guess he waits a year and enters the 2021 draft. But the talent is real, and he is playing his tail off this season for the Mountaineers. Through five games, he has 4.0 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss and a blocked field goal. His brother and West Virginia teammate, Dante, was a five-star prospect, but Darius was barely recruited. Darius is shorter (6-foot-1, 292 pounds) and not as athletic as his sibling, but he is making a bigger impact. I have a close eye on this kid as a future midround value pick. -- McShay

Under-the-radar prospects to know

Keep an eye on these potential Day 2 or Day 3 picks:

Adam Trautman, TE, Dayton

Mel had Trautman as his riser a few weeks back, but I wanted to bring him up again because he continues to climb draft boards with huge games. He has at least 80 yards in all four games this season, and he is coming off a ridiculous six-catch, 107-yard, four-touchdown performance against Jacksonville. A 6-foot-6 redshirt senior and team captain, Trautman is not an explosive route runner, but he has the frame, body control and ball skills to develop into a zone-coverage buster and an asset in the red zone in the NFL. He has enough top-end speed to work the seam and make the occasional one-on-one play downfield. And he can play in-line and split outside. At this point, Trautman projects as a potential No. 2 tight end with midround value. -- McShay

Alex Taylor, OT, South Carolina State

You can't miss the 6-foot-9 Taylor on tape, as he is so much bigger than the FCS competition he dominates. But this is more than just a big body. Taylor, who transferred from Appalachian State to play basketball, then joined South Carolina State's football team, has good footwork in pass protection, and he locks and drives defenders in the run game. That basketball background comes in handy when he uses his athleticism to get to the second and third levels with ease against MEAC competition. I want to see if Taylor receives an invite to a postseason all-star game because he hasn't played against great competition, but he could be a fourth- or fifth-round pick based on his traits, athleticism and size. -- Kiper