Our panel of NFL experts predicts Week 4's biggest upsets, fantasy football flops and makes a few predictions about the season.
Dive into what our analysts think about early trends and more.
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What's your top upset pick for Week 4?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Cincinnati (+4) over Pittsburgh. Two winless teams on Monday night. Give me the Bengals -- and the four points -- on the road here. Joe Mixon gets going against a Steelers defense that is allowing an average of 139.3 yards rushing per game, which ranks No. 28 in the NFL after three weeks.
KC Joyner, NFL writer: Philadelphia (+4.5) over Green Bay. The Packers' offense ranks tied for 26th in rushing yards per attempt and the Eagles' defense led the league in my good blocking rate (GBR) allowed metric through Week 2. This combination will make Green Bay have a one-dimensional offense and it should allow the Eagles to pull off the upset.
Jason Reid, The Undefeated senior NFL writer: Buffalo (+7) over New England. The Bills have done a whole lot right during a surprising 3-0 start. Now, if the Bills can pull this off, Western New York will really have something to talk about.
Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders: Tennessee (+4) over Atlanta. I think people will overreact to a bad road game on Thursday night, but a lot of teams have bad road games on Thursday night. The Titans are still a fairly average team in every phase of the game. Meanwhile, the Falcons have underperformed on offense -- their running game currently ranks 28th in DVOA -- and their defense always seems to end up less than the sum of its parts.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Jacksonville (+3) over Denver. While I'm uncertain about the weekly impact of the Jalen Ramsey saga, I think the Jaguars have a pretty decent mind-meld between offensive coordinator John DeFilippo and quarterback Gardner Minshew. The Broncos still don't look like they know what they want to be offensively, and their defense under Vic Fangio isn't able to dominate a game quite yet.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Jacksonville (+3) over Denver. The remedy for the Broncos' offensive inefficiencies probably isn't a visit from the Jaguars, who showed in Week 3 that their personnel is still dominant. Look for the Jaguars to even their record at 2-2.
The 49ers are one of the surprise 3-0 teams. Are you buying or selling San Francisco's chances to make the playoffs and contend in the NFC?
Bowen: Buying. The 3-0 start comes with wins over Tampa, Cincinnati and a Pittsburgh team in transition without its starting QB. I get it. However, I do like the offensive balance under Kyle Shanahan, and the Niners' defensive front could be pretty salty this year. That should put San Francisco in a position to make a run at the wild card if it can survive a tough late-season stretch on the schedule.
Joyner: Buying. The Niners' run blocking has been very good this season, Shanahan might be the most creative playcaller in the league, and their defensive pass coverage schedule is quite favorable for most of the rest of the season.
Reid: Buying. This isn't at all surprising. Shanahan isn't just a top-notch playcaller. He really knows what he's doing overall. And that defense is really good.
Schatz: Buying. Even if we incorporated opponent adjustments, the 49ers would currently rank eighth in offensive DVOA and second in defensive DVOA. Based on current ratings, their future schedule ranks 11th -- harder than it has been so far but easier than the remaining schedule for the Rams or Seahawks. And people underestimate the importance of each individual win when there are only 16 chances in an NFL season. 3-0 is huge.
Seifert: Selling. The combined record of the three teams they've defeated is 1-8. I think they'll struggle with the Seahawks and Rams in the NFC West, and any NFC team hoping for a wild-card spot must be prepared for fierce competition from the NFC North.
Yates: Selling. I still view the Rams as the favorite in this division, with Seattle likely to pick up steam as the season wears on (as has been routine for them in recent years). Couple a tough division with a talented conference and I think the playoffs remain more unlikely than expected.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Bowen: Vikings WR Stefon Diggs. With only six receptions this season -- on 12 targets -- Diggs isn't seeing consistent volume in the Vikings' run-heavy script. And I don't anticipate Minnesota opening up the passing game on the road this Sunday versus the Bears' defense at Soldier Field.
Joyner: Bills RBs Devin Singletary and Frank Gore. Singletary and Gore are possible flex candidates in most weeks, but New England has allowed 110 rushing yards in its first three games. Add in the possibility of split carries between Singletary and Gore and it means they are best suited for bench duty in Week 4.
Reid: Browns QB Baker Mayfield. Mayfield hasn't gotten off to a good start and, not surprisingly, Cleveland has struggled. I envision his problems continuing against the Ravens.
Schatz: Eagles QB Carson Wentz. The Packers are second in fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season, and Wentz is still dealing with injuries to his top two wide receivers.
Seifert: Packers RB Aaron Jones. Jones, who is dealing with a shoulder injury, will encounter a formidable rush defense from the Eagles, who are allowing 2.95 yards per carry, second in the NFL.
Yates: Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston. It was a much, much better week for Winston in Week 3, but I believe that to be a byproduct of the opponent more than the start of a trend. The sledding will prove much tougher against a terrific Rams defense on the road in Los Angeles.
Where will Marcus Mariota, a free agent this offseason, be playing in 2020?
Bowen: Vegas. The Raiders brought in Mike Glennon and picked up DeShone Kizer to fill out the QB depth chart behind starter Derek Carr. Mariota would be an upgrade over both, and the Raiders will have plenty of cap space in 2020.
Joyner: Houston. Bill O'Brien has made the most out of quarterbacks with a lot less talent than Mariota has. Combine that with Houston needing a backup quarterback upgrade and the Texans currently being projected to have a lot of salary-cap space in 2020 and it could make this a perfect fit in many ways.
Reid: Tennessee. Look, let's just wait and see how this season shakes out. He still could be the Titans' best option.
Schatz: Arizona. They have a lot of cap room and need a good backup for Kyler Murray, and Mariota would get a chance to resuscitate his career by going back to a shotgun-heavy system more similar to how he played in college.
Seifert: Tennessee. The question in moving on from a starting quarterback should be made in context of available options. Unless Mike Vrabel can lure former teammate -- and pending free agent -- Tom Brady to Nashville, the Titans might choose to focus on their coaches and schemes around Mariota. He is put in a lot of unfavorable passing situations.
Yates: Green Bay. We always look for relationships and connections when it comes to quarterbacks in the NFL, so I'll turn to a reunion of Mariota and Matt LaFleur, his offensive coordinator in 2018. Aaron Rodgers' lone backup on the active roster is Tim Boyle; Mariota feels like a better fit as a stopgap backup than starter right now.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 4.
Bowen: Mecole Hardman, Chiefs. In his past two games, Hardman has caught 6 of 11 targets for 158 yards and two scores. He's a deep-ball threat with legit track speed. And that meshes with Patrick Mahomes in the Chiefs' offense. Hardman has WR3 value in the lineup this week versus the Lions, with more upside in non-PPR formats.
Joyner: Justin Jackson, Chargers. Miami just allowed Dallas to have two running backs rush for 100 yards in a game for the first time since 1998 and it could repeat that feat with Austin Ekeler and Jackson. That makes Jackson a good upside flex candidate.
Reid: Terry McLaurin, Redskins. Washington thought the rookie wide receiver would primarily help on special teams. He has been a force on offense.
Schatz: Kyle Allen, Panthers. Cam Newton's undrafted backup shocked everyone with four passing touchdowns last week. And -- surprise! -- so far this season, the Houston Texans are 28th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks per game.
Seifert: Justin Jackson, Chargers. Jackson figures to get plenty of touches, and a fair bit of success, against the Dolphins' embarrassing rushing defense once the Chargers get ahead. The Dolphins are allowing 5.43 yards per rush.
Yates: DJ Chark, Jaguars. In Gardner Minshew we trust! And Chark as well, as the second-year standout has scored a touchdown in each game this season. While my astute colleague Mike Clay would likely note that regression is bound to happen, I'll vouch for the good times continuing to roll with Chark this Sunday.