After a wild week of uncertainty, Antonio Brown is now a member of the New England Patriots. The Oakland Raiders released him Saturday, and then Bill Belichick & Co. signed the 31-year-old wide receiver to a one-year deal worth up to $15 million with a $9 million signing bonus. Brown isn't eligible to play for the Patriots in Week 1, but he could be in the lineup as soon as Week 2 at Miami.
How did the Patriots fare in the deal? How does AB fit in with a receiving corps that already includes Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon? We asked our panel of NFL insiders to weigh in:
How do you grade this deal for the Patriots?
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: B+. This is a classic Patriots move to offer a landing strip to a baggage-laden playmaker while leveraging a system that makes five-star talent available at three-star prices. This will probably work. But Brown is the car wreck nobody can turn away from, and that comes with a cost.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: A. We have to see the details of the deal before we know for sure, but there's no way Belichick gave this guy a contract he can't get out of if Brown flakes over a helmet or a fine or frostbitten feet. This is pure upside, and the Patriots just got one of the absolute best players in the league for an Adam Humphries/Jamison Crowder price.
Jason Reid, The Undefeated senior NFL writer: A++. Look, I don't even care about the contract terms. Based on the Patriots' recent history and all of those Lombardi trophies they own, let's just assume they're covered in the event of future foolishness. Here's all you need to know: Tom Brady, the greatest quarterback of all time, now gets to team with the NFL's best receiver. Is there risk associated with all of this? Well, yeah, obviously. But you can't underestimate the potential payoff for New England.
Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders: A-. We haven't seen specifics yet on the contract language, but I have to think the Patriots would be willing to cut bait as soon as Brown starts causing problems. Robert Kraft can certainly afford to spend a $9 million signing bonus on a lottery ticket. I only gave it A- instead of A in case Brown washes out and down the line the Patriots regret spending the salary-cap space on his signing bonus.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: C. It's awesome from a football perspective, obviously, to add one of the best receivers in the game to the best team in football. But are we certain the Patriots have an impenetrable shield against dysfunction? They have had success with players who have struggled elsewhere, but Brown is in his own class. This is a guy who said in March: "If they want [me] to play, they're going to play by my rules" -- and he meant it! Are we sure the Patriots can wipe out that perspective?
Field Yates, NFL analyst: B+. The upside is for an A+, however, as Brown is as talented a wide receiver as there is in the NFL. The B+ is a hedge because Brown's behavior has been erratic recently, and he must now show that such behavior will not follow him to New England.
Is AB's one-year deal worth up to $15 million guaranteed more or less than you thought he'd get after being released?
Fowler: Slightly less. Despite the collective "no way I'm touching him" responses from several sources around the league, he's still a top-three playmaker who's healthy and not suspended. Those guys get jobs -- and usually more than $9 million guaranteed.
Graziano: More, because the handful of teams I talked to Saturday all said it would have to be a very-low-salary, incentive-laden deal. But again, let's see the full deal, details and language before we decide what kind of deal it is for the player.
Reid: He actually got more than I thought, but that shows the Patriots get this. Brown is a game-changer like few others in professional sports.
Schatz: I also expected Brown's next contract to be more incentive-laden. This is a much stronger signing bonus than I would have expected.
Seifert: Much more. We haven't seen every detail of the contract, but after his burnouts in Pittsburgh and Oakland, I figured he would have to sign a pay-as-you-go deal. No matter his talent, I didn't think he would get a penny up front and not a cent beyond his weekly paycheck. It makes sense that he has a chance to reach the 2019 pay he would have received in Oakland, but I'm shocked the Patriots handed him a $9 million signing bonus and wonder if it is in some way tied to weekly participation.
Yates: More, as I thought the deal might be heavily incentivized. That being said, for a player with Brown's track record of performance, $15 million is below market if he plays to the standard he has set over a decade-long career.
Antonio Brown runs around his backyard screaming after he was released by the Raiders.
What's your projection for Brown's 2019 stat line?
Fowler: 86 catches for 1,012 yards and nine touchdowns. The Patriots' lack of tight end prowess helps Brown's target outlook, but his 100-catch streak of six seasons comes to an end because Brown is a freelancer at heart, and Brady will need to adjust. Brown will be most valuable in the end zone, where the toughest player wins.
Graziano: 100 catches for 1,250 yards and 10 touchdowns. Because he's Antonio Brown and Brady is throwing him the ball. I think the Pats get a year out of Brown before he loses it again. But why are you asking me? I didn't think he'd be a problem in Oakland.
Reid: 110 catches for 1,400 yards and 15 touchdowns. Those are similar numbers to what he put up in 2018. We're about to witness brilliance in the passing game on a level we haven't seen since, well, the Patriots brought in Randy Moss back in 2007.
Schatz: 76 catches for 950 yards and eight touchdowns. I think Brown will need to share with Edelman and Gordon more than expected, and I also would not expect the Pats to become anywhere near as pass-heavy as last year's Steelers.
Seifert: 10 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown. I guess I'm calling my shot here: I don't think it's going to work. It would require a 180-degree flip from Brown, and, importantly, Belichick is not afraid to cut his losses when he deems a project irreparable.
Yates: 85 catches for 1,220 yards and 12 touchdowns. This feels conservative, but he's going to play in 15 games maximum.
Give us one word to describe Brown's past year:
Fowler: Confrontational. Brown seems to want a fight wherever he goes. He has threatened coaches, players, general managers and even reporters. Tempering Brown's raw emotion will be New England's greatest challenge.
Graziano: Bonkers. He screamed his way out of a perfect situation (Pittsburgh) into a lousy situation (Oakland) and then back into an even better situation than the one he was in a year ago. Frostbitten feet? Helmet controversy? Twitter feud with JuJu Smith-Schuster? Shouting match with Mike Mayock? Who could have predicted 15% of this a year ago?
Reid: Troubling. Clearly, there's a lot going on with him. Hopefully, for his sake, he'll find what he's looking for with the Patriots.
Schatz: Mercurial. You never had any idea what Brown was going to do from one day to the next. Wasn't he just apologizing to his Raiders teammates, like, yesterday?
Seifert: Unprofessional. We've seen divas and high-maintenance superstars, but rarely if ever have we seen a player treat his teams with the sneering indifference that Brown has applied in both Pittsburgh and Oakland during this calendar year.
Yates: Unbelievable. Three teams. Never a dull moment. The most compelling drama of the NFL offseason in some ways.