Antonio Brown has a major weakness, and it has nothing to do with his helmet, feet or wallet.
Last season, before all the drama that led to Brown's release from the Oakland Raiders and near-immediate signing with the New England Patriots, he caught 100 passes for a sixth consecutive season with the Pittsburgh Steelers while putting up 1,297 yards and a league-high 15 touchdowns. On the surface, it looked like just another year as one of the game's top wideouts.
Digging deeper into the now-31-year-old's performance, however, reveals a worrying trend and a sign that he might be declining. The new Patriots wideout struggled against press coverage -- and the rest of the NFL caught on. It's a trend that would have been more problematic playing with Derek Carr in Oakland, California, than Tom Brady in Foxborough, Massachusetts, but one that could still slow Brown anyway. Let me explain.
Brown has received press coverage -- defined as a defender lining up within three yards of the receiver before the snap -- plenty over the past few seasons. And in 2016 and 2017, he had no problem beating it.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats data, Brown ran 528 routes against press coverage in 2016-17, catching 74 passes for 1,348 yards and eight touchdowns. He averaged 9.8 yards per target, which ranked second in the NFL among players who got at least 100 targets, and had a completion percentage of 2.1 points above expectation. Ben Roethlisberger and Landry Jones combined to throw four interceptions on those plays.
Last season was a completely different story. Brown ran 327 routes against press coverage, catching 28 passes for 425 yards. And while Brown did have seven touchdowns on those routes, he averaged just 6.3 yards per target and his 41.8% catch rate was 9.5 percentage points below Next Gen Stats' expected completion percentage. In turn, Roethlisberger threw six interceptions in Brown's direction (and Joshua Dobbs added a seventh).
Leaguewide catch rates for press-coverage targets were 15 percentage points lower than non-press targets last season, but the overall yards per target were higher on the former. That's because a frequent offensive counter to press coverage is midrange or deep pass attempts (12.7 air yards per target on press vs. 7.2 air yards per target on non-press). But that uptick in production didn't translate for Brown, whose 6.3 yards per press-coverage target were well below his 11.5 yards per target against all other coverages.
Here are the league leaders in yards per press-coverage target (on a minimum of 30 targets) last season:
Julio Jones, Falcons: 12.2
Brandin Cooks, Rams: 11.8
Mike Evans, Buccaneers: 11.7
Alshon Jeffery, Eagles: 9.5
Michael Thomas, Saints: 9.3
You might be wondering about JuJu Smith-Schuster, who had a breakout performance for the Steelers last season and is now replacing Brown as Pittsburgh's top wideout. Smith-Schuster exceeded his expected completion by 4.3 percentage points on press plays last season, catching 20 passes for 350 yards with one touchdown and averaging 9.0 yards per press-coverage target. That came on just 39 targets compared to Brown's 67.
Brown was press-covered on 50% of his routes run in 2018, according to NFL Next Gen Stats data, the highest rate among any receiver with at least 50 targets and almost double the rate of press coverage Smith-Schuster received.
If the antidote to press coverage is medium-to-long-range passing, Carr would have been just about the worst option among current starting quarterbacks. He had the lowest air yards per target among passer-rating qualifying passers last season (6.7), and recorded a below-average 7.4 yards per target against press coverage.
While the 42-year-old Brady isn't exactly a gunslinger, he averaged a much higher air yards per pressed target (14.7) than Carr (11.3) last season.
Though Brady also had a poor yards per target average against press coverage last season (7.3), his two best receiving weapons -- Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman -- were not pressed particularly often. If we look back at Brady's numbers against press coverage in 2016-17, his above-average 8.8 yards per target and completion percentage that was 3 percentage points above expectation are more in line with our perception of the future Hall of Famer.
But of course, Brown was playing with a pretty fine quarterback in Pittsburgh last season, too, and he still had issues against the press.
Adam Schefter reviews Antonio Brown's day that started with getting released by the Raiders and ended with a one-year deal with the Patriots.
In Oakland, Brown would have been running with Tyrell Williams and would have commanded almost the entirety of opponents' attention. But in New England, he'll have Edelman and Josh Gordon running routes alongside him, so defenses won't be able to solely focus on stopping Brown. Even Phillip Dorsett proved dangerous in Sunday night's matchup with the Steelers, hauling in a pair of touchdowns and gaining 95 yards.
How Brown fits into the Patriots' offense is still a mystery, though. The Patriots were a heavy 21 personnel (two RBs, one TE and two WRs) team at the end of the 2018 season, with Gronkowski still a focal point of the offense, but they will likely transition to more 11 personnel (one RB, one TE and three WRs) or 20 personnel (two RBs and three WRs) looks following his retirement and the signing of Brown. The Patriots ran 25 plays without a tight end on the field in Week 1. During the entire 2018 season, New England ran only 24 such offensive plays.
Our resident X's-and-O's expert Matthew Bowen suggests that defenses might show more nickel and dime defenses against New England, with safeties ready to cover either Brown or Edelman at the top of their routes. But because the Patriots have three legitimate receivers and a few playmaking backs, they will find ways to beat defenses. If teams take away the receiving threats, the run game can take over. If opponents stack the box, expect play-action looks for Brown on seam routes, or Edelman and Gordon on crossers.
While the superstar wideout no doubt has better prospects in New England than Oakland, his press-coverage struggles could mean he'll have less of an impact than fans in Foxborough are hoping. Is Brown's 2018 just a blip or the start of a trend? We'll find out in Week 2, when Brown is expected to make his Patriots debut against a Miami Dolphins defense that just allowed 59 points in the season opener.