It's a long season, and anything can happen on any given Sunday. Super Bowl favorites' seasons can quickly crumble, just as expected rebuild teams can suddenly find themselves in the playoff hunt.
To find a ceiling and floor for each NFL team's expected performance this season, we pulled the middle 90% of ESPN Stats & Information's 10,000 Football Power Index (FPI) simulations of the 2019 campaign for each team. That eliminated outliers and gave us realistic best- and worst-case win-total projection scenarios. In other words, roughly 90% of the simulations have the Bills finishing with between four and nine wins.
What will determine on which end of the win-total spectrum each team eventually falls? Our NFL Nation reporters indicate the biggest factor in each team hitting the high or low end of the range.
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE
NO | NYG | NYJ | OAK | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Ceiling: 9-7 | Floor: 4-12
Biggest variable: Offensive cohesiveness. The Bills reworked their run game, receivers and offensive line over the offseason in an effort to give quarterback Josh Allen weapons -- and keep him upright. This defense shouldn't regress from its top-five finish last season, and it should keep the Bills in games. But how quickly their offense comes together will determine how many of those games the Bills will actually win. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Miami Dolphins
Ceiling: 8-8 | Floor: 3-13
Biggest variable: Takeaways. The 2018 Dolphins were probably worse than their 7-9 record indicated largely because of their 28 forced turnovers, which tied for fifth in the NFL. There are still several ballhawks on defense, including cornerback Xavien Howard, who could help flip a game even if Miami's offense struggles as we expect. If the Dolphins' turnover number dramatically drops in 2019, their win-total range probably will lean toward the low of three. But if they can somehow duplicate or improve it, they could be a slight surprise trying to move closer to .500. -- Cameron Wolfe
New England Patriots
Ceiling: 13-3 | Floor: 8-8
Biggest variable: Offensive line dominance. Quarterback Tom Brady said the line was ultimately the strength of the 2018 offense, and it helped that the group played most of the season together, giving it a chance to develop cohesion and see the same picture in front on a consistent basis. Brady is 42 and looking to become the first quarterback at that age to start all 16 regular-season games. Protecting him is, naturally, paramount. And with the Patriots' deep running back corps, a strong rushing attack led by the line would give Brady the best chance to rewrite history. -- Mike Reiss
New York Jets
Ceiling: 10-6 | Floor: 5-11
Biggest variable: Quarterback Sam Darnold's development in Year 2. A franchise QB can camouflage a team's blemishes -- and the Jets have a few, mainly depth issues at a handful of positions. If Darnold can build on the promising finish to his rookie year and make a Jared Goff- or Carson Wentz-like leap, the Jets will be contenders into December. He has the physical ability to be a terrific quarterback, but does he possess that rare ability to elevate those around him? If he does, the Jets will challenge for double-digit wins. -- Rich Cimini
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: The development of quarterback Lamar Jackson as a passer. In seven starts last season, Jackson completed over 60% of his passes only twice and eclipsed 200 yards passing once. Teams are going to stack the box and make Jackson beat them with his arm, making it the biggest X factor for a Ravens team that is traditionally strong on defense and special teams. If Jackson can get the ball to playmakers like Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown, Baltimore is a championship contender. If Jackson fails to effectively pass the ball, the Ravens will struggle to post a winning record. -- Jamison Hensley
Cincinnati Bengals
Ceiling: 8-8 | Floor: 4-12
Biggest variable: Offensive line effectiveness. The retirement of Clint Boling coupled with Jonah Williams' season-ending labrum injury raises even more questions about the Bengals' offensive line. Cincinnati spent the majority of training camp tinkering with its line rotation, specifically on the left side and at center. If the unit fails to find chemistry or enough quality players to play well, Cincinnati could easily be one of the worst teams in the AFC this season. -- Ben Baby
Cleveland Browns
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: Team chemistry. On paper, the Browns have the talent to win the AFC North and make a run in the playoffs, especially after adding Odell Beckham Jr. But how will a team full of big personalities jell under first-time head coach Freddie Kitchens? The first hint of adversity could offer a glimpse of a trajectory for the one of the NFL's most compelling teams. -- Jake Trotter
Louis Riddick details how the Steelers are ready to bounce back from a drama-filled year and adds that they will be contenders for the Super Bowl.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: Getting the defense from pretty good to great. That unit validating its enormous August confidence with regular-season results will determine where this season goes. Coach Mike Tomlin set it up best: Pittsburgh can sack the quarterback, but now it needs to turn offenses over. The Steelers were tied for first in sacks (52) last season but came in at just 28th in turnover margin (minus-11). Now they hope their revamped lineup of hybrid safety-linebackers will bridge that gap. -- Jeremy Fowler
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: Deshaun Watson taking a step toward being an elite quarterback. He has the weapons around him to lead a potent offense for the Texans, but he has to avoid being sacked as often as he was in 2018. Some of that is on the protection he gets from the offensive line, but Watson also takes a long time to get rid of the ball. Coach Bill O'Brien said Watson has a better command of the offense and has improved his knowledge of opposing defenses this offseason, and he expects big things from his quarterback in 2019. -- Sarah Barshop
Indianapolis Colts
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 7-9
Biggest variable: What they get from Andrew Luck. There wouldn't be a need to touch on Luck's health had he been a participant during offseason activities and took part in more than only three limited practice sessions during training camp because of calf and ankle injuries. He won't play in the preseason and his status for Week 1 is still in question. As 2017 proved when they went 4-12 without him, the Colts must have Luck on the field. He's a legitimate MVP candidate, and the Colts will have a chance to improve on their AFC divisional-round appearance last season if Luck is able to overcome his latest injuries. -- Mike Wells
Jacksonville Jaguars
Ceiling: 10-6 | Floor: 5-11
Biggest variable: Offensive line performance. The Jaguars were ravaged by injuries there last year and have dealt with them throughout camp, too. Four starters have either not practiced or have missed significant time. Mobility isn't quarterback Nick Foles' strength, and it doesn't matter how much better running back Leonard Fournette looks if he's having to deal with tacklers in the backfield as soon as he gets the ball. If guys get healthy and perform anywhere close to expectations, the offense should be fine and avoid being the nonfunctional mess it was the second half of last year. -- Mike DiRocco
Tennessee Titans
Ceiling: 10-6 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: Consistency. Newly signed receiver Adam Humphries and now-healthy tight end Delanie Walker will make the offense more potent and more consistent on third down. They'll be confidence-boosters for quarterback Marcus Mariota because of their high-percentage routes and after-the-catch ability. All the offense has to do is complement Dean Pees' stellar defensive unit that finished among the top scoring defenses last season. A 10- or 11-win season is possible as long as the Titans avoid a letdown game. -- Turron Davenport
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
Ceiling: 9-7 | Floor: 5-11
Biggest variable: Injury fortune. There's some underrated talent among the Broncos' starters, especially on Vic Fangio's defense, but the team is thin at offensive line, inside linebacker and wide receiver. That puts Denver in a position to be, at best, in the wild-card conversation if it remains one of the healthiest teams in the league. But if the Broncos get a cluster of injuries up front on offense or in the middle on defense, they will be in trouble. They just aren't close to where they were in 2015 when they overcame Peyton Manning's seven missed starts and some O-line injuries on the way to a Super Bowl win. -- Jeff Legwold
Kansas City Chiefs
Ceiling: 13-3 | Floor: 8-8
Biggest variable: Overall defensive improvement. The Chiefs invested significant resources into fixing their defense, the result being a new defensive staff, a new system and as many as seven new regulars. If these changes bomb, it's not out of the question that the Chiefs could drop to eight wins. If the changes work, 13 wins is a reasonable expectation. With the Chiefs' high-scoring offense, they don't have to be dominant defensively, but merely average. -- Adam Teicher
Marcus Spears likes the combination of head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes leading the Chiefs to the Super Bowl.
Los Angeles Chargers
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: Close-game success. The Bolts were 7-16 in games decided by eight or fewer points under former coach Mike McCoy from 2015-2017. Since Anthony Lynn took over, the Chargers are 10-6 in such games. Lynn figured out how to get his team to execute in the fourth quarter, leading the Chargers to their first playoff berth since 2013. However, with questions around Melvin Gordon (contract holdout), Derwin James (foot injury) and left tackle Russell Okung (pulmonary embolism), the Chargers have a thinner margin of error. They will once again have to limit mistakes and make plays in crucial late-game situations. -- Eric D. Williams
Oakland Raiders
Ceiling: 9-7 | Floor: 4-12
Biggest variable: Derek Carr's growth in Jon Gruden's offense. This will be only the second time in Carr's six-year NFL career that he will play in the same system for a second straight season. The other time? Back in 2016, when Carr played at an MVP level before breaking his right ankle. Carr looked more confident and polished in his second camp with Gruden and said he was playing the best football of his life late last season. The rebuilt offensive line will now be tasked with keeping him upright after he was sacked a David Carr-like 51 times last season, and Antonio Brown will be a welcomed asset on offense. -- Paul Gutierrez
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: Kellen Moore's impact on the offense. The Cowboys had become predictable in recent years, but with Moore in his first year as offensive coordinator, opponents won't have a book on him early in the season. Moore has added more motions and shifts prior to the snap in camp and shown a willingness to push the ball down the field more. If he can elevate Dak Prescott's passing game -- even though the offense will still focus on Ezekiel Elliott -- and bring more to the red zone attack, then the Cowboys should make it back to the playoffs. -- Todd Archer
New York Giants
Ceiling: 9-7 | Floor: 4-12
Biggest variable: Offensive explosiveness. Some might lean defense here, as the Giants have a young unit that will be learning on the fly. But that's also why the success or failure of this team will hinge on the offense, beginning with quarterback Eli Manning. The Giants have a majority of their finances and most valuable assets (top pick in each of the past three drafts) invested in their offense. In fact, 60% of their salary cap is attributed to the offense (compared to 38% on defense), so the Giants' O needs to prove it's worth the price. -- Jordan Raanan
Stephen A. Smith cannot fathom why Giants owner John Mara said in an "ideal world" Daniel Jones would not see the field in 2019.
Philadelphia Eagles
Ceiling: 12-4 | Floor: 7-9
Biggest variable: Defensive line production. Quarterback Carson Wentz's health is rightfully getting plenty of attention, but so much hinges on whether the defensive front can replace the production of its top two edge rushers from a season ago, Chris Long and Michael Bennett. A bulk of the responsibility falls on Derek Barnett. The former first-round pick out of Tennessee is coming off shoulder surgery and needs to fulfill his potential in Year 3 to solidify the spot opposite Brandon Graham. -- Tim McManus
Washington Redskins
Ceiling: 9-7 | Floor: 4-12
Biggest variable: Health on offense. Washington has put a combined 51 players on injured reserve the past two years and used approximately 70 different offensive line combinations, partially explaining consecutive 7-9 marks. The health is especially important to the offense. Tight end Jordan Reed and third-down back Chris Thompson both looked excellent in camp but also tend to miss a lot of games. Second-year back Derrius Guice is coming off a torn ACL but could provide pop if he's back to being himself. The defense should be good, but the offense has little margin for error -- and it shrinks if left tackle Trent Williams doesn't return. -- John Keim
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 7-9
Biggest variable: Health. The Bears believe they have a roster talented enough to compete for a championship. Chicago's key players -- Mitchell Trubisky, Tarik Cohen, Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks -- all avoided any long-term injuries last season, and the team subsequently won 12 games. The Bears must have the same good fortune from a health standpoint in 2019 for Matt Nagy's group to reach its full potential. The 2007 Bears were also expected to repeat as NFC North champions but went 7-9. Why? Because too many key players were lost to season-ending injuries. -- Jeff Dickerson
Detroit Lions
Ceiling: 9-7 | Floor: 5-11
Biggest variable: Darrell Bevell's offense taking hold. The Lions have built their defense in Matt Patricia's vision, but their success or lack thereof this year will be based on how the offense flows. Bevell is a talented, veteran coordinator, and Detroit, in theory, has the pieces to make it work. If it does, and the run game can take pressure off Matthew Stafford and make his play-action skills more devastating, the Lions could hit or even eclipse the nine-win mark. -- Michael Rothstein
Green Bay Packers
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: How much the defense improved. Everyone thinks it depends on how quickly quarterback Aaron Rodgers and coach Matt LaFleur mesh -- or if they do at all -- but it might really be more dependent on the defense. GM Brian Gutekunst gave defensive coordinator Mike Pettine $154 million worth of free agents in Adrian Amos, Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith, plus two first-round draft picks in Rashan Gary and Darnell Savage Jr. This team needs its defense to carry its weight for the first time in a nearly decade. -- Rob Demovsky
Stephen A. Smith doesn't understand why people are saying Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has just as much to prove as new head coach Matt LaFleur this season.
Minnesota Vikings
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: How well the offense can scheme to quarterback Kirk Cousins' strengths. A pivot toward a more balanced approach with a versatile group of running backs will help Minnesota fulfill its potential on offense. But almost just as importantly, Mike Zimmer's vaunted defensive unit needs to get back to the way it looked in 2017, which might help decide the outcome in close games and be the security blanket for this offense to do just enough. -- Courtney Cronin
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: The offensive and defensive lines doing their part. Matt Ryan has all the weapons he needs to average 30-plus points per game, but he has to have solid protection. And Ty Sambrailo probably isn't the answer at right tackle. On defense, Vic Beasley Jr. and Takkarist McKinley have to bring consistent pressure off the edges with Grady Jarrett creating havoc inside. -- Vaughn McClure
Carolina Panthers
Ceiling: 10-6 | Floor: 5-11
Biggest variable: Quarterback Cam Newton's right shoulder. If it holds up, the Panthers should be more like the team that started 6-2 a year ago when their franchise quarterback was healthy. And the switch to a 3-4 defense, along with key additions of Gerald McCoy, Bruce Irvin and Brian Burns, should create instant havoc after the Panthers finished 27th in the NFL in sacks last season. If Newton has a setback and the defense doesn't jell right away, the Panthers could struggle as they did during their 1-7 finish to the 2018 season. But if everything goes to plan, they could compete for the NFC South. -- David Newton
New Orleans Saints
Ceiling: 12-4 | Floor: 8-8
Biggest variable: The pass-rush efficiency. The front four was the strength of the Saints' defense last year, but then Sheldon Rankins tore his Achilles in January and starting defensive end Alex Okafor left in free agency. The Saints still have one of the game's best defensive ends in Cameron Jordan, but they will also be counting on breakthrough performances from Marcus Davenport, Trey Hendrickson and David Onyemata as they step into bigger roles. -- Mike Triplett
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ceiling: 9-7 | Floor: 4-12
Biggest variable: Todd Bowles' defense making plays. As much as people want to harp on the impact of Jameis Winston's interceptions, the Bucs' defense is 1-22 when giving up 26 or more points over the past three years, and 18-7 when holding teams to 24 or fewer. That's the difference that a red zone stop or key pass breakup on third down can make, forcing opponents to settle for a field goal instead of allowing them to score a touchdown. -- Jenna Laine
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
Ceiling: 8-8 | Floor: 3-13
Biggest variable: Offensive production. Kliff Kingsbury's offense will make or break the Cardinals' season. Quarterback Kyler Murray's dynamic playmaking and the spread offense could make defenses vulnerable in key areas. The Cardinals' offense might really surprise a lot of people. But if it becomes too predictable or isn't getting the proper protection, then a three-win season won't be out of the question. -- Josh Weinfuss
Los Angeles Rams
Ceiling: 12-4 | Floor: 8-8
Biggest variable: Sean McVay's evolution as a playcaller. His offense has been wildly successful, but it's no secret that the Rams' coach runs 11 personnel -- three receivers, one running back and one tight end -- almost exclusively and with the same exact 11 players. While that has propelled the Rams to a 24-8 record in two seasons, several teams found ways to slow the offensive juggernaut late in the 2018 campaign, and the Patriots brought it to a complete halt in Super Bowl LIII. McVay must add some new wrinkles, if not new packages, to stay ahead of opponents. -- Lindsey Thiry
San Francisco 49ers
Ceiling: 10-6 | Floor: 5-11
Biggest variable: A turnover turnaround. The Niners set a league record for futility with only seven takeaways in 2018, a shockingly low number that featured only two interceptions (also the fewest by a team in a season in league history). For a team that lost six one-possession games, the inability to generate turnovers undoubtedly contributed to their failure to finish games. San Francisco bolstered its pass rush in hopes that it would lead to more takeaways, but if the Niners are to finish on the high end of their possibilities, they'll need a dramatic turnaround in the game's most important statistical category. -- Nick Wagoner
Seattle Seahawks
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: How Ezekiel Ansah impacts the pass rush. With Frank Clark gone and Jarran Reed suspended for six games, Ansah is the only Seahawks defender with the track record to make double-digit sacks a realistic target, and that's anything but a given with the former Detroit Lion recovering from shoulder surgery that has kept him on the sideline this offseason. If he regains something close to Pro Bowl form, it could open up opportunities for some of the Seahawks' less proven pass-rushers and give their defense a competent front four to go along with perhaps the NFL's best linebacker trio. If not, the lack of a pass rush would put even more pressure on a young secondary that no longer has Earl Thomas patrolling the back end. Ansah is the fulcrum. -- Brady Henderson