The ultimate goal for every NFL team entering training camp every summer is to contend for a Super Bowl. Some are ready to do that right now, some are just a few moves and a little more development away, and some just aren't close as they embark on longer rebuilds.
We asked 52 NFL insiders to vote on when each NFL team could realistically next be considered a surefire, no-doubt Super Bowl contender. To be clear, this doesn't mean playoff contender or in the mix, but rather when each team could be a serious threat to win a title, based on personnel, trajectory, rebuild timelines and other related factors.
The results allowed us to tier each team into distinct time frames, starting with four non-debatable contenders for this season's championship. Our NFL Nation reporters dove in with some context around why each team ended up where it did. Teams are organized within tiers alphabetically.
Jump to:
Current contenders | On cusp | One year out
Two years out | Three years out
Four or five years out | Five-plus years out
CLEAR-CUT CONTENDERS RIGHT NOW
Kansas City Chiefs
Last Super Bowl appearance: 1969
2019 Football Power Index rank: No. 1
Future power rank: No. 4
As long as Patrick Mahomes is their quarterback, the Chiefs will have a chance to contend. A near-complete defensive rebuild, with the addition of a new staff plus as many as seven new starters, can only help a team that was a key defensive stop away from the Super Bowl last season. -- Adam Teicher
Los Angeles Rams
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2018
2019 FPI rank: No. 3
Future power rank: No. 8
In two seasons under coach Sean McVay, the Rams have clinched back-to-back division titles and an NFC championship; and they once again feature a roster that is capable of making a trip to the Super Bowl. They return each skill player -- including Cooper Kupp, who is coming off a season-ending knee injury -- from an offense that scored 32.9 points per game in 2018. And defensive tackle Aaron Donald will anchor an experienced defensive group that now also includes veteran outside linebacker Clay Matthews and veteran safety Eric Weddle. -- Lindsey Thiry
New England Patriots
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2018
2019 FPI rank: No. 4
Future power rank: No. 2
It's the same as it ever was for the defending champions. Bill Belichick is in his 20th year as head coach. Quarterback Tom Brady enters Year 20 as well. Starting with those two already puts the Patriots in the Super Bowl discussion before factoring in all the other pieces that have to fall into place. -- Mike Reiss
New Orleans Saints
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2009
2019 FPI rank: No. 2
Future power rank: No. 7
The Saints were one pass-interference call away from the Super Bowl last season (among other miscues), and they remain one of the most talented teams in the NFL, with 40-year-old Drew Brees flanked by one of the better defenses and running games he has ever had. But they need to revive a passing game that cratered late last season, and they must replenish a pass rush that took some hits. And most importantly, the Saints need to prove they can get over another devastating playoff loss. -- Mike Triplett
ON THE CUSP OF CONTENDING
Chicago Bears
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2006
2019 FPI rank: No. 7
Future power rank: No. 11
The Bears were a reliable kicker away from potentially reaching a Super Bowl last season. Chicago's kicker situation is still unsettled, but otherwise, the Bears have one of the league's best rosters, led by Pro Bowlers Khalil Mack, Tarik Cohen and Eddie Jackson. -- Jeff Dickerson
Indianapolis Colts
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2009
2019 FPI rank: No. 5
Future power rank: No. 1
Andrew Luck is an MVP candidate as long as he stays healthy, and he has the same starting offensive line, led by All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson, returning for the first time since entering the league in 2012. That group gave up an NFL-low 18 sacks last season. The Colts, who surprised many by finishing 11th in total defense last season, signed pass-rusher Justin Houston in the offseason and used seven of 10 draft picks on defense to help All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard, the league leader in tackles. -- Mike Wells
Victor Cruz sees the Colts' upcoming season as a "Super Bowl or bust" with a healthy Andrew Luck at the helm.
Los Angeles Chargers
Last Super Bowl appearance: 1994
2019 FPI rank: No. 6
Future power rank: No. 10
Fresh off their first playoff appearance since 2013, the Chargers have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL entering the 2019 campaign. Veteran quarterback Philip Rivers is at the helm of an explosive offense that can score from anywhere on the field, and the Bolts have a top-10 defense with playmakers at every level. The Chargers believe they have the talent to make a Super Bowl run, but keeping key impact players healthy for the duration of the season and securing home-field advantage in the playoffs will be crucial. -- Eric D. Williams
Philadelphia Eagles
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2017
2019 FPI rank: No. 10
Future power rank: No. 3
Tight end Zach Ertz called this the most talented team he has played on, and that includes the 2017 Super Bowl squad. Carson Wentz is healthy and surrounded by playmakers, from Ertz to Alshon Jeffery to speed demon DeSean Jackson. Wentz might never be blessed with a stronger supporting cast than the one he has now; he needs to take advantage. -- Tim McManus
STILL A YEAR AWAY
Atlanta Falcons
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2016
2019 FPI rank: No. 9
Future power rank: No. 15
The Falcons were there just three seasons ago, and they firmly believe they haven't fallen off too far despite their Super Bowl LI implosion. Injuries were a big problem last season, and linebacker De'Vondre Campbell wants to remind the world how good the defense was before those injuries. The Falcons have all the tools to outscore anyone with Matt Ryan at quarterback, dynamic Julio Jones at receiver, Devonta Freeman back healthy at running back and a host of other talented playmakers. But first, they need their rookie offensive linemen to develop. -- Vaughn McClure
Dallas Cowboys
Last Super Bowl appearance: 1995
2019 FPI rank: No. 19
Future power rank: No. 14
I actually think of the Cowboys more as a team on the cusp, considering they have won the NFC East in two of the past three seasons and have one of the youngest and more talented rosters in the league. If they are truly one year away, then that is bad news for coach Jason Garrett, because he will not be around in 2020 if they don't contend in 2019. -- Todd Archer
Green Bay Packers
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2010
2019 FPI rank: No. 12
Future power rank: No. 13
At age 35, Aaron Rodgers has no choice but to buy into new head coach Matt LaFleur's system. Expect Rodgers to return to his best, but perhaps not immediately while he and his rookie coach work through the natural transition period. The myriad additions on defense -- Adrian Amos, Preston Smith, Za'Darius Smith, Rashan Gary and Darnell Savage Jr. -- also require time to develop under respected coordinator Mike Pettine. The year 2020 should put the Packers back into serious Super Bowl contention, but don't expect it this time around. -- Rob Demovsky
Minnesota Vikings
Last Super Bowl appearance: 1976
2019 FPI rank: No. 11
Future power rank: No. 12
One year away? That's not what the Vikings want to hear after making a handful of moves this offseason that reflect their all-in mentality. In order to get back to the NFC Championship Game, this franchise made every effort to retain the players who got it there two years ago (Anthony Barr, Everson Griffen and Kyle Rudolph). But the window is shrinking. If the Vikings aren't able to capitalize with one of the most talented rosters in the NFC and a favorable schedule in 2019, they might have to wait a while to contend for a Lombardi trophy, given the uncertainty about this team's core beyond this season. -- Courtney Cronin
Pittsburgh Steelers
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2010
2019 FPI rank: No. 16
Future power rank: No. 6
Losing two All-Pros in Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown has a way of downgrading the status. But there's still plenty of ammunition for a playoff run. Ben Roethlisberger led the league in passing last season. JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner are capable focal points. The offensive line is still among the best, and there's speed all over the field on defense with recent first-round picks T.J. Watt, Terrell Edmunds and Devin Bush. -- Jeremy Fowler
Louis Riddick details how the Steelers are ready to bounce back from a drama-filled year and adds that they will be contenders for the Super Bowl.
Seattle Seahawks
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2014
2019 FPI rank: No. 14
Future power rank: No. 5
Last offseason, the Seahawks said goodbye to a handful of the most high-impact players in franchise history and still managed to earn a wild-card berth at 10-6. The latest big-name departures -- Doug Baldwin, Frank Clark and Earl Thomas -- will shift more unproven players into prominent roles. Playoff contention should be the Seahawks' baseline as long as they have Russell Wilson, but contending for a Super Bowl will require a new wave of young Pro Bowl-caliber players to emerge. -- Brady Henderson
TWO YEARS AWAY
Baltimore Ravens
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2012
2019 FPI rank: No. 17
Future power rank: No. 17
Lamar Jackson is entering his first full season as a starting NFL quarterback, and he showed there will be a learning curve after a rocky postseason debut in 2018. It will take some time to build the supporting cast around Jackson and his unique skills. Plus, the Ravens' traditionally strong defense has to retool after losing Terrell Suggs, C.J. Mosley and Eric Weddle. Baltimore is trending up, but this could be a transitional season. -- Jamison Hensley
Carolina Panthers
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2015
2019 FPI rank: No. 20
Future power rank: No. 18
The Panthers are a team in transition, having dumped many older veterans and replaced them with younger, faster players. They have undergone a major change in defensive philosophy -- going to more odd-man fronts after traditionally showing a 4-3 front -- and are rebuilding the offensive line. While there is a win-now mentality and the playoffs are a possibility this season, transition takes time. And some remaining uncertainty around Cam Newton's surgically repaired shoulder makes another Super Bowl run unlikely this season. -- David Newton
Cleveland Browns
Last Super Bowl appearance: Never been
2019 FPI rank: No. 15
Future power rank: No. 9
The Browns have drafted an enviable foundation of young, budding stars in quarterback Baker Mayfield, defensive end Myles Garrett and cornerback Denzel Ward. As that core ages into its prime, Cleveland figures to emerge into a legitimate Super Bowl contender sooner rather than later. And adding Odell Beckham Jr. to the offense never hurts. -- Jake Trotter
Dan Orlovsky believes Cleveland has the talent on both sides of the ball to be in Super Bowl contention over the next five years.
Houston Texans
Last Super Bowl appearance: Never been
2019 FPI rank: No. 8
Future power rank: No. 16
The Texans are close to contending for a Super Bowl because of quarterback Deshaun Watson. On paper, Houston could have one of the best offenses in the AFC, provided everyone can stay healthy. The Texans have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, but they have not been able to put it all together for a deep playoff run under coach Bill O'Brien. -- Sarah Barshop
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last Super Bowl appearance: Never been
2019 FPI rank: No. 18
Future power rank: No. 25
The biggest reason for this projection isn't the elite players on defense, but the addition of quarterback Nick Foles. He brings the stability the position has lacked since David Garrard's tenure. But the Jaguars need to find or develop some playmakers around Foles for the Super Bowl to be a legitimate possibility. Wideout Dede Westbrook looks like he can be a big-time contributor, but that's not enough. It's unfair to ask the defense to carry the team year after year, so some players on the offense will need to step up. -- Mike DiRocco
San Francisco 49ers
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2012
2019 FPI rank: No. 21
Future power rank: No. 24
Presumably, this falls somewhere in between the best- and worst-case scenario for the 49ers and operates under the assumption that quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is going to stay healthy and develop into the top-10 to top-12 quarterback the Niners envisioned when they handed him a massive contract extension in 2018. There's an intriguing supporting cast in place and plenty of young potential. But it figures to be some time for all of that to come together, with gradual steps still to be taken to get to the middle of the pack and playoff contention before realizing any Super Bowl dreams. -- Nick Wagoner
Tennessee Titans
Last Super Bowl appearance: 1999
2019 FPI rank: No. 13
Future power rank: No. 19
The Titans have a solid roster that features one of the NFL's best defenses. Head coach Mike Vrabel seems to be building a good culture in Nashville and is forging a physical, smashmouth team personality. The Titans continue to add pieces around Marcus Mariota, but still need to figure out if he can for sure be their franchise quarterback. If he can get back to his 2016 form, they will be a tough out in the playoffs. -- Turron Davenport
THREE YEARS AWAY
New York Jets
Last Super Bowl appearance: 1968
2019 FPI rank: No. 26
Future power rank: No. 29
After two seasons of painful rebuilding, the Jets are in win-now mode after claiming the unofficial "offseason spending" title. But how much they win hinges on the development of quarterback Sam Darnold. The realistic hope is that his maturation syncs with the improvement of the supporting cast, but that might take one or two more drafts and free-agent cycles. Darnold has three years remaining on his rookie contract, which creates a financial window for the franchise. -- Rich Cimini
Oakland Raiders
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2002
2019 FPI rank: No. 23
Future power rank: No. 20
"Remain calm, all is well." Kevin Bacon in that chaotic final parade scene of "Animal House"? Sure, but it also could be Jon Gruden, straddling Oakland and Las Vegas in 2019. Three years is a realistic stretch for the Raiders, long enough for their most recent rebuild to take hold and their three first-round draft picks from this spring -- Clelin Ferrell, Josh Jacobs and Johnathan Abram -- to pan out. The Raiders also have two first-rounders next year. If all goes to plan, it will still be Derek Carr, whose five-year extension ends in 2022, at quarterback, too. -- Paul Gutierrez
FOUR OR FIVE YEARS AWAY
Arizona Cardinals
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2008
2019 FPI rank: No. 31
Future power rank: No. 30
The Cardinals haven't exactly been the model of consistency or success in recent years and have not shown any signs they are poised to make a run at the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl, anytime soon. They haven't even had a winning record since 2015 and are on their third head coach in three years. That kind of turnover creates setbacks that could take years to overcome. But with new coach Kliff Kingsbury and rookie quarterback Kyler Murray, the Cardinals believe they have the foundation for future success. -- Josh Weinfuss
Dan Orlovsky dissects Kyler Murray's skill set and explains why he has the capability to take the league by storm like Patrick Mahomes did last season.
Buffalo Bills
Last Super Bowl appearance: 1993
2019 FPI rank: No. 27
Future power rank: No. 23
The Bills have not won a playoff game since 1995, which was also the most recent season they won the AFC East. Buffalo will need to establish itself as a real contender to make the playoffs -- which it has done only once in the past 19 seasons -- before it can enter into the Super Bowl challenger conversation. Splitting hairs on whether the Bills are three, four or five years away from competing for a title really depends on how quarterback Josh Allen is viewed. -- Mike Rodak
Denver Broncos
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2015
2019 FPI rank: No. 22
Future power rank: No. 22
If it takes this long for the Broncos, they'll be breaking in yet another new coaching staff and John Elway will be facing far more criticism than he already is after back-to-back seasons of at least 10 losses. The Broncos have used four starting quarterbacks over the past two seasons -- Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch and Case Keenum -- and none is on the current roster. But they believe Joe Flacco can settle things on offense while first-year coach Vic Fangio lifts the defense back to dominance. If they are right, they'll compete more quickly. If not, well, more change will be on the way. -- Jeff Legwold
Detroit Lions
Last Super Bowl appearance: Never been
2019 FPI rank: No. 24
Future power rank: No. 21
This is where the Lions always seem to be, at least since Barry Sanders retired 20 years ago. Detroit brought in Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn to accelerate the process, but if four to five years is the reality for a Super Bowl run, there's a good chance neither is around to see it. Progress must come this season, be it in an improved record or a playoff berth. If the roster works out like the current administration hopes, it is not unreasonable to think the Lions could be in contention in 2020 or 2021. But that four-to-five-year window appears more realistic. -- Michael Rothstein
Miami Dolphins
Last Super Bowl appearance: 1984
2019 FPI rank: No. 32
Future power rank: No. 32
The Dolphins launched a full-scale rebuild this offseason with the expectation that it could take two or three years before they were back in playoff contention. It was the smart move for a team stuck in mediocrity. So Miami might see this Super Bowl contention timeline of four to five years as a better alternative to just trying to sneak into the playoffs as a wild-card team every year. Quarterback remains the main piece missing for a successful long-term rebuilding project. Josh Rosen will get an opportunity in 2019, but if he doesn't show much promise, Miami will shoot its shot at a quarterback high in the 2020 draft to lead its rebuild. -- Cameron Wolfe
New York Giants
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2011
2019 FPI rank: No. 30
Future power rank: No. 31
This is the result of a roster devoid of proven defensive playmakers and of uncertainty at the quarterback position. If Daniel Jones is the real deal, this projection could change quickly. But even then, it appears the Giants are at least a few years away from serious contention given their overall talent. There is a lot of work still to be done. -- Jordan Raanan
Dan Orlovsky and Booger McFarland share expectations for Giants rookie Daniel Jones and a potential timeline for him to start at QB over Eli Manning.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last Super Bowl appearance: 2002
2019 FPI rank: No. 25
Future power rank: No. 26
The Bucs sure hope it won't take this long, despite 11 consecutive seasons without a postseason appearance, the second-longest playoff drought in the NFL. When Bruce Arians was hired as head coach, he said, "We aren't rebuilding. We're reloading." They're looking at this as more of a three-year plan, versus a full-on rebuild. But Arians has got to help Jameis Winston cut down on the turnovers in Year 5, and Todd Bowles has to fix a defense that has given up 365.9 yards per game over the past 10 seasons. -- Jenna Laine
Washington Redskins
Last Super Bowl appearance: 1991
2019 FPI rank: No. 28
Future power rank: No. 27
The Redskins could develop a strong defense with a young talent base, and if quarterback Dwayne Haskins hits, this timetable must be pushed up. But they need to groom other young playmakers on offense -- running back Derrius Guice staying healthy would help -- to support him. The real issue here is that the timetable reverts back to a lack of faith in an organization that has won just three playoff games since its 1991 Super Bowl victory. Can Washington actually build a consistent winner? -- John Keim
AT LEAST FIVE YEARS AWAY
Cincinnati Bengals
Last Super Bowl appearance: 1988
2019 FPI rank: No. 29
Future power rank: No. 28
All hope is not lost for the Bengals -- they still have players such as A.J. Green and Joe Mixon, along with a young head coach. But they have long been just good enough to get to the playoffs but not take the next step. They haven't won a playoff game since the 1990 season. It's hard to imagine anything different without some changes to how the team has operated. Moving on from Marvin Lewis was the first step, but Cincinnati needs to be more aggressive in free agency, among other things, before it'll be considered a legitimate contender to get to the Super Bowl. -- Katherine Terrell