The 2019 NFL offseason is not yet finished, but with most of the major moves in the books, we'll soon hand out grades for all 32 teams.
Until then, here's a look at what NFL execs are saying about seven of the most compelling teams this offseason. The Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Giants, New York Jets, Kansas City Chiefs and Arizona Cardinals made some of the biggest moves, for better and worse. From the Odell Beckham Jr. trade to Kyler Murray's selection and the Jets' recent housecleaning, we've got you covered.
We'll add grades when we unveil execs' thoughts on all the teams next week.
Arizona Cardinals
Execs predicted for months before the draft that the Cardinals would select quarterback Kyler Murray first overall. It was a move few could have envisioned one year ago, but an almost necessary one after the team named Kliff Kingsbury its head coach.
"It seemed like they were all over the board with convoluted moves, but there is a connection with the quarterback and the offensive guru and the system," a former general manager said. "It has a chance now, whereas before the draft, I would have said, 'No way.'"
The decision to make another coaching change without overhauling the front office means the Cardinals' first-year head coach inherits a seventh-year GM (Steve Keim) who has a winning record (52-43-1) but could be on less stable ground after three straight non-winning seasons and a 2018 DUI conviction.
"Wouldn't it be interesting if they had a new GM with Kingsbury and Murray?" an exec asked. "Maybe they do different things rather than signing all these old guys who have been cut."
Brooks Reed, 32, and Robert Alford, 30, were older cut players signed by Arizona before free agency opened. Other veteran additions included Terrell Suggs (36), Charles Clay (30) and J.R. Sweezy (30).
"I probably would have gone young with Kyler Murray," an evaluator said. "If they start poorly and it looks like they're going to miss the playoffs, what does a young coach say to Terrell Suggs?"
While execs generally did not like the way Arizona rushed out to sign recently cut players such as Alford, the Cardinals' roster could have been barren enough to justify such an approach.
"Whether you liked Kingsbury or not -- and I am a fan -- they went out and got him a team that he could succeed with," an exec said. "Even the veterans they signed, OK, they were trying to get some depth and eliminate some holes before the draft. Maybe they are not great, but you can at least line up and play with them. I get their strategy. And this coach, more than their last one, gives them a clear identity to build around."
Cleveland Browns
Execs who weren't sure whether the 2018 Los Angeles Rams could easily assimilate Ndamukong Suh, Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters thought the Browns were taking much greater risks. Cleveland has less stable ownership, a less established head coach, no track record of recent success and a more explosive combination of personalities.
"Handing this roster to Freddie Kitchens, who has never been a coordinator, let alone a head coach, would scare me to death," an exec said. "The talent might be good enough so that it doesn't matter, but it is also combustible. You are already seeing signs with Odell."
Beckham, Kareem Hunt and Sheldon Richardson are talented newcomers who have nonetheless been suspended by the NFL at various points in their careers. While execs lauded GM John Dorsey's eye for talent, they saw the Browns taking a short-term approach that is creating great expectations without necessarily laying a stable foundation.
"I think whatever success they have will be fleeting," an exec said.
A salary-cap administrator thought the Browns' moves created challenges that could complicate their ability to re-sign homegrown talent.
"Face it, with that ownership and these expectations, Freddie Kitchens is coaching for his job in year one, which is insane," another exec said. "I give the Browns really high marks for their talent acquisitions at a time when that division is in transition, but it is going to take great leadership to get that done, and there is no track record of that leadership there."
A head coach said he thought quarterback Baker Mayfield had the makeup and personality to roll with whatever waves Beckham and anyone else might make. An exec thought the personalities of Mayfield and Beckham were bigger than the franchise, and he thought there was zero chance Beckham actually wanted to be in Cleveland over bigger, more glamorous markets such as New York and Los Angeles.
"You look at their skill people and it's pretty impressive if the quarterback is the real deal," another exec said. "Defensively, you got the pass-rusher [Olivier Vernon] for a guard [Kevin Zeitler], which is good. I could be dead wrong, but I think they go 10-6 and have a good year. Then I think next year [2020] is the key for them, where they go one way or another."
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs still have Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, which is what matters most, but this will be a vastly different team in meaningful ways -- some good, some bad.
"You can see what they are trying to do with the defense, but Kansas City is a hard one to figure overall because they've had some curveballs," an exec said.
Defensive coordinator Bob Sutton, outside linebackers Justin Houston and Dee Ford, safety Eric Berry and (for now) receiver Tyreek Hill are out. Taking their places: defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, defensive end Frank Clark (among others), safety Tyrann Mathieu and rookie receiver Mecole Hardman.
In a four-day period bleeding into the draft, the Chiefs acquired Clark, suspended Hill after audio surfaced in which his fiancée accused him of abusing their 3-year-old son, and traded up in the second round to select Hardman, a potential replacement for Hill. They also gave Clark a deal worth nearly $21 million per year, which one evaluator noted could explain why Chris Jones is not attending OTAs.
"They did really well on Dee Ford," an exec said. "They are changing schemes and this is a guy who had one good year in a contract year, and they were not biting. They parlayed it into getting Frank Clark, who is just a much better player."
The Chiefs essentially traded Ford and the 29th pick for Clark (their own 2020 second goes to Seattle, while San Francisco's 2020 second goes to Kansas City). If you're going to trade a first-round pick, you're better getting a player at a premium position in return. Clark is one such player.
"They have lost a 'blue' running back [Hunt] and a 'blue' wide receiver [Hill] and could drop because of that," an evaluator said. "You just can't replace those guys. But they do have the X factor [Mahomes] that can make that all less relevant."
New England Patriots
The Patriots' offseason featured a prostitution solicitation arrest for owner Robert Kraft, multiple staff departures, would-be defensive coordinator Greg Schiano joining and quickly leaving the team, postseason hero Rob Gronkowski retiring and top free agent Trey Flowers leaving for riches in Detroit.
Oh, and Las Vegas has the Patriots as 6-1 favorites to win the next Super Bowl, the best odds for any team.
"So, they are going to go 10-6, at least," an exec said. "Is that a B offseason? In their own weird way, it's a good offseason for them."
The exec let out a loud laugh, knowing that picking apart the Patriots' moves seems futile in the face of robust annual returns.
"[Bill] Belichick is the guy who climbs Everest without oxygen just to see if he can do it," another exec said. "It'll work out for them."
A quick run through some of the leading subjects:
Kraft: His arrest was embarrassing, but it shouldn't affect the on-field product.
Staff departures: Belichick, Josh McDaniels and Dante Scarnecchia are still there, which is critical.
Schiano: "They say Belichick is going to be the defensive coordinator," an exec said. "That has to help them. He is a coaching genius."
Gronk: The Patriots tried to trade him one year ago and presumably would have been fine moving on from him this offseason as well, simply based on age and injuries. Using the 32nd overall pick on a big wideout (N'Keal Harry) could fill some of the receiving void.
Flowers: New England replaced him with veteran Michael Bennett, who might be as good in 2019. They will pocket a 2020 third-round compensatory pick, plus another third and two sixths for losing other players, giving them the NFL's largest projected haul of comp picks next year.
One potential regret: not drafting a tight end. The Patriots might not be finished at that position, though. Execs said New England has shown interest in the veteran trade market.
"I would think they wish they would have handled the tight end situation differently, but the tight ends in the draft all went early," an evaluator said. "My guess is, they probably wanted to get one in the third round and they all ended up gone before they picked."
New York Giants
A dispirited college roommate once told me without sarcasm that he was "shooting for a high F" on an upcoming exam. That bit of unintentional comedy came to mind after I told an exec that a D-minus grade seemed right for the Giants' offseason.
"Yeah," the exec replied without any intended malice, "so why wouldn't the Giants be an F?"
Because they finally identified and drafted a potential franchise quarterback in Daniel Jones, I replied.
"If you think he is the guy, great," a different exec said. "It is just, what are you trying to make your team?"
The Giants traded away one of the game's great playmakers (Beckham) and one of their better pass-rushers (Vernon). They used the first-round choice acquired for Beckham on a 350-pound nose tackle, seven months after trading away a 350-pound nose tackle (Damon Harrison). They acquired a 23-year-old safety drafted in the first round (Jabrill Peppers) to replace a 25-year-old safety drafted in the first round (Landon Collins).
For some, it felt as if the Giants were akin to a basketball team sinking 2-point shots while its opponents were hitting 3s.
"You could have had Odell and Harrison from last year's team," an exec said. "Instead, you have Dexter Lawrence and a fifth-rounder from Detroit. That makes no sense to me."
It obviously makes sense to the Giants, but execs agreed that New York's GM, Dave Gettleman, has not communicated the plan effectively.
One exec said it looked like the Giants were building a team to stop the run in a potentially run-heavy division within a more pass-oriented league. Another questioned whether a "meat-and-potatoes" team would gain traction in New York during the current age. A third questioned how Gettleman could suggest that Jones might sit for three years, which would make it difficult for the team to decide how to proceed on a second contract.
"I don't think you get rid of great players," a former GM said. "They traded a pass-rushing defensive lineman [Vernon] for an interior offensive lineman [Zeitler] and drafted a quarterback I'm iffy on. You can defend every one of their moves individually, but collectively, are they building an identity that you can win with?"
New York Jets
This Jets offseason remains in flux until the team names its next GM, but there's lots to digest.
The plan all along could not have been to fire GM Mike Maccagnan two weeks after the draft -- well after Maccagnan seemed to drive key moves in free agency, including the signing of Le'Veon Bell, which no one saw as a move the new head coach, Adam Gase, would have made or even supported.
"If you had told people in November that the Jets were going to wind up with Adam Gase as the head coach and [interim] GM, they'd be like, 'What the f--- are you talking about?'" an exec said.
Lots of people are saying a variation of that right now.
"You don't have to agree with the decision people make -- people are right or wrong all the time -- but you should be able to understand what teams are trying to accomplish," an exec said. "With the Jets, you have done some things that could make you better, but you don't get the sense they walked in knowing how to fix their organization. They threw darts."
Where there is no coherent plan, there is speculation.
Gase and franchise quarterback Sam Darnold share representation through agent Jimmy Sexton, as do some of the potential GM candidates, while Bob LaMonte reps Maccagnan. Not everyone agreed those dynamics were critical here.
"I don't think Maccagnan got fired because of agents or even because of Gase," an exec said. "Look, Gase could have prevented Maccagnan from being fired, but I don't think Gase is the reason he was fired. What solidified it was that they've had two head coaches not love the fit."
Beyond leading the league in intrigue, the Jets led the league in guaranteed money committed to free agents, which carries its own downside -- specifically, that when you're determined to spend in free agency, you're at the mercy of what's available.
For the Jets, that meant spending $17 million per year on an inside linebacker (C.J. Mosley) and $13 million per year on a running back (Bell) who hasn't played in more than a year and had become estranged from his previous team. Meanwhile, another team with excess cap space, the Indianapolis Colts, continued making decisions based on value and strategic planning.
What the Jets do on the GM front could determine whether they're throwing darts again next offseason.
"There are a lot of pretty good evaluators," an exec said. "You need to get a guy that formulates an organizational plan, with the personnel people and with the coaching staff. The problem with keeping the evaluator during a coaching changeover is, that is not always the case."
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers' offseason turned into a circus, with Antonio Brown forcing a trade after gaining a league-high 9,145 receiving yards over the previous six seasons. Le'Veon Bell's departure was quiet by comparison, but the effect was similar.
This offseason amounted to doubling down on quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, including with a contract extension.
Here are five of the most interesting comments I collected from execs during a tumultuous Steelers offseason:
On the Steelers, like the Giants, parting with high-profile players: "Look, the game has changed. Players have changed. These older franchises that have always had a staid way of doing things, it does not fly anymore. Players do not care. They are their own brand, and if you can't accept that, then you probably are going to struggle. For the Bears, it took [Matt] Nagy to come in and shake it up."
On why the Steelers seem less stable: "I think Mr. [Dan] Rooney's passing [in 2017] really hurt that team. He had so much backbone to stand up and do things the way they are supposed to be done."
On going all-in with Roethlisberger: "[GM] Kevin [Colbert] was put in a tough spot, because if you have to pick between those three guys [Roethlisberger, Bell or Brown], I would back Ben too."
On Colbert saying Roethlisberger was free to criticize teammates at will: "What happened in a moment of rash decision-making was, they chose a quarterback over a head coach. When you make those decisions where you empower the player over everyone in the organization, that invites trouble. I don't know how many players in league history you can feel safe entrusting everything to while he is a player."
On an underrated Steelers departure: "To me, the biggest loss is [offensive line coach] Mike Munchak. They go from having a top-five O-line coach to breaking in a replacement who might be good but has never held that job before."
Despite all the turmoil and change, execs generally thought the Steelers would challenge for the AFC North title and that their floor was probably the highest in the division. They thought first-round linebacker Devin Bush was exactly what the defense needed and also thought the Steelers' success in drafting receivers merited optimism on third-round choice Diontae Johnson.
"This would probably piss off Steelers fans who are upset with how things are going, but this is still a really talented team, and when Ben Roethlisberger is executing, they can win the Super Bowl," an evaluator said.