The Air Raid offense has made its way to the NFL. The Arizona Cardinals brought in former Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury, and he's going to do some unique things on offense. From the foundational Air Raid pass concepts to the "GT" run game to run-pass options (RPOs) and misdirection, Kingsbury can blend his college playbook with modern NFL concepts to give the Cardinals' offense a much-needed boost.
I went back to the Texas Tech film to see how Kingsbury used Patrick Mahomes during the 2016 season, focused on the running back position in the pass game and took down notes on tendencies that will translate to the pro game. And I stayed away from that Red Raiders' defense -- there's a reason Kingsbury went only 35-40 over six seasons.
Here are three things I'm watching in Year 1 as Kingsbury tries to mold Josh Rosen, David Johnson and a limited offensive roster in Arizona that could use some upgrades after a 3-13 season in 2018.
The development of Josh Rosen
The hiring of Kingsbury is centered around improving Rosen as he enters his second season in the league. The most natural thrower of the 2018 draft class, Rosen isn't a perfect fit for the QB-designed runs Kingsbury used at Texas Tech.
From a passing-game standpoint, however, Kingsbury's ability to design plays that occupy defenders in the route tree -- giving the quarterback more defined reads -- is a quick way to accelerate the learning curve for Rosen.
That means basic Hi-Lo concepts that allow Rosen to read intermediate defenders in zone coverage -- no different from what Philip Rivers does with the Chargers -- and empty sets that give Rosen a clear coverage read pre-snap. And it can be as simple as identifying split safety or single-high with Kingsbury's Air Raid concepts.
Take this play from the 2016 Texas Tech season against Baylor, for example, when Mahomes dialed up a vertical throw to the middle of the field (check out the video below). Double flat-corner combos with the Y receiver (slot) on a peek route. With Baylor playing a split-safety look, the middle of the field is open. Take the shot.
Demarcus Felton stiff-arms a tackle and spins out of another for a 27-yard touchdown.
Think about the staple Air Raid concepts, such as Y cross, mesh, Y/H shallow, four verticals, stick, sail, H wheel and all curl. We already see those in the NFL from different formations and personnel groupings. Y cross? That's cross-country dagger (deep crosser/dig), and it pops up on the Patriots' tape, or out in Kansas City with Andy Reid. The sail -- or flood concept -- that Kingsbury ran at Tech off boot action? That was one of Rams coach Sean McVay's go-to concepts to beat the Saints in the NFC Championship Game.
Want innovation or creativity? That is Kingsbury's ability to flood one side of the field with receivers off jet motion. Get four strong to create an open window for Rosen. Or use the RPO game with pulling linemen to generate an opposite-flow read for the second-level defenders. More power play-action and more misdirection can open up opportunities -- and speed up the eyes for Rosen -- to get the ball out.
The point here is to take those Air Raid staples and build out the route tree to mirror the pro passing game we see today. And while Kingsbury will have to adapt his call sheet against much more complex defensive game plans -- and more man coverage -- there is plenty here that will carry over to facilitate growth with Rosen.
Expect a boost in volume and production for David Johnson
Under Bruce Arians in 2016, the star Cardinals running back caught a whopping 80 of 120 targets for 879 yards, in addition to the 1,239 yards and 16 touchdowns he racked up on the ground. But after he missed almost the entire 2017 season with a wrist injury, Johnson's production took a massive dip in 2018, as he caught just 50 of 76 targets for 446 yards, with 940 yards rushing and seven scores.
Can Kingsbury's system generate that type of high-level production again for Johnson given his versatile skill set? Based on what I see on tape, the answer is yes. We're going to see Johnson as a receiver with a deep screen package, underneath concepts and quick, vertical throws to open windows.
Check out the screen here from the 2018 Texas Tech season against Oklahoma (see the video below). This looks like power play-action (pull the guard) with quarterback Alan Bowman moving in the pocket, but it's set up as a throwback screen to running back Da'Leon Ward. Get the defense to bite with blockers out in front. House call.
Yes, the offensive line in Arizona has to be upgraded, and I'll get to that shortly. But in addition to the zone and power run game that will feature Johnson, his ability to catch the ball should be a major part of the Cards' playbook given the passing-game usage of Kingsbury's running backs at Tech.
Where Arizona should focus in the offseason
This offensive line has to be upgraded in 2019. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Cardinals' pass block win rate -- a metric powered by NFL Next Gen Stats -- was 38 percent in 2018. That was the worst in the NFL, as the average team had a PBWR of 50 percent. Rosen took far too many hits as a rookie playing behind a rotating cast of linemen, and no system is going to reach its ceiling without the big boys up front.
Considering the number of pullers Kingsbury uses at the point of attack and the zone schemes that require athletic linemen to climb to the second level, improving here is going to be extremely important if Arizona wants to make a jump. Check out the example below from a "GT" scheme from Texas Tech's win over Oklahoma State in 2018:
"GT" means the guard and tackle pull. And that's what we see here on Demarcus Felton's touchdown run. Pull, kick out and give the running back a crease with some jet motion thrown into the mix to create some misdirection.
This could be a situation in which the Cardinals target both free agency and the draft to upgrade the offensive line, even potentially trading down from that No. 1 overall spot to land some more picks and a first-round offensive lineman.
The Cardinals also need to add more talented pass-catchers. Even with Larry Fitzgerald returning for another year, they can continue to build around young wide receivers Christian Kirk and Chad Williams to boost Kingsbury's route tree.
The bottom line here? Think players first. And when the Cards can beef up that offensive roster, we will see the true impact of Kingsbury's ability to adapt and scheme on game day.