ESPN senior writer Mike Sando asks NFL insiders to pick winners in select games each week. Three evaluators joined the panel for Week 14. This week's games: Colts-Texans, Ravens-Chiefs, Eagles-Cowboys, Rams-Bears and Vikings-Seahawks.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: HOU by 4.5 | Insiders pick: HOU (2/3)
The Texans are first on defense, 11th on offense and 12th on special teams in ESPN's efficiency rankings since their nine-game winning streak began in Week 4. Only the Saints and Chargers outrank them in total efficiency over that span.
"What's interesting to me on this is, Indianapolis plays a ton of zone coverage with eyes on the quarterback, which gives them a chance to match up against a scrambler like Deshaun Watson," one of the insiders said. "I think [Andrew] Luck bounces back from last week. A big part of this game is whether Indy can keep it within one score through three quarters. A fast start by Houston could be very tough to overcome because of the pass rush and crowd noise."
Watson rushed six times for 41 yards in the Texans' 37-34 victory over Indy in Week 4. He accounted for a season-high 26 first downs in that game. Luck had four scoring passes without a turnover, the first of eight consecutive games in which he threw at least three scoring passes, a streak that ended with a 6-0 shutout loss to Jacksonville last week.
"Houston's defense is playing well, their offense is coming along and you would think this would be a game where the Texans just steamroll them," another insider said. "Houston should win based on how they are playing, but I like Indianapolis to bounce back off a bad week. I think this one will be lower scoring than the last one. I think Luck plays with more control, more poise, so this is my upset pick of the week, against my better judgment."
The third insider thought the Texans would win this game and probably a playoff game as well.
"Indy doesn't have the defensive personnel to make the difference," this insider said. "Houston does, and Romeo Crennel does a great job allowing his guys to play fast. He does not try to overthink it, especially now that they are healthy on their front."
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: KC by 6.5 | Insiders pick: KC (3/3)
The Ravens are 3-0 with Lamar Jackson replacing Joe Flacco at quarterback. The Chiefs are 1-0 with Spencer Ware replacing Kareem Hunt at running back. Baltimore's offense has had trouble passing and scoring. Kansas City's defense has had trouble stopping those things.
"The quarterback [Jackson] has brought life to that team," one of the insiders said. "They run the ball extremely well. They do a great job controlling the game. They play good defense, especially when they can pin their ears back. They have so many physical players. K.C. must match the physicality, dictate what they do on offense and stop the run. This will be a playoff environment."
ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Chiefs a 75 percent chance of winning.
"The Ravens' defense gives a lot of looks," another insider said. "Can they force some takeaways on [Patrick] Mahomes? If they can, then they definitely have a shot. I will take the Chiefs, but if Baltimore can get two takeaways out of the game and then maybe contain the Kansas City run game without Hunt, you wonder. I'll be curious to see if they use Tyreek Hill more out of the backfield. I just don't think Baltimore can score enough without turnovers."
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday: 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: DAL by 3.5 | Insiders pick: DAL (2/3)
One game separates these NFC East rivals in the standings, even though Dallas feels like the much better team at the moment. They rank within five spots of one another in ESPN's efficiency rankings for offense, defense and special teams.
"I feel like Stephen A. Smith saying every time he feels something is going good with Dallas, something bad happens," one of the insiders picking Dallas said. "I'm going to go with Dallas. That New Orleans game was a huge confidence builder."
This insider called Philadelphia's offense "the Zach Ertz show" even though Golden Tate's production is on the rise (Tate had a monster game against Dallas early in the season, when he was still with Detroit, but he was quiet against Dallas in his Eagles debut).
"Look, Kansas City thrived off [Travis] Kelce last week, but Ertz just seems to be their No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 option," this insider said of the Eagles. "The lack of a great running game puts too much on the quarterback to be superior. [Carson] Wentz is a talented, talented player, but not quite what he was last year before the ACL [injury], in my opinion."
Ertz had 14 catches for 145 yards and two touchdowns against the Cowboys in Week 10. Tate played a season-low 18 snaps in that game, his first with Philadelphia. He has played 34 snaps per game since then, catching seven passes for 85 yards and a touchdown Sunday.
"The Philly defense has been injured and not consistent, so the biggest question is, can Dak [Prescott] manipulate and take advantage of their secondary?" the insider picking Philly said. "Dallas is undefeated [5-0] when they win the turnover battle. If Wentz protects the ball, I will not be surprised if Philly pulls the upset."
The Eagles have won the turnover battle just twice this year, both times against the Giants.
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
Sunday: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC | Point spread: LAR by 3 | Insiders pick: CHI (2/3)
The Chicago forecast calls for mostly sunny weather, temperatures around freezing and winds under 10 mph for this matchup between the No. 2 offense (Rams) and No. 1 defense (Bears) in ESPN's efficiency rankings.
"It will be interesting how the Rams fare in that cold weather, especially if there is wind or it gets a little slippery," an insider with NFC North experience said. "[Rams coach Sean] McVay has the makings of a weatherproof offense. Will we see it? He runs the ball with [Todd] Gurley. He is under center enough. Will the wind and slick surface make the precision passing more difficult?"
The big question, of course, is whether the Bears will have starting quarterback Mitchell Trubisky back from injury. His mobility has been critical for a Bears team that is averaging 25.1 offensive points per game, up from 14.2 last season. The 10.9-point improvement would be the fifth-largest year-over-year gain during the past decade. The 2017 Rams lead the list after improving by 13.4 per game from the previous season.
"I'm going to go Chicago at home if Trubisky plays," another insider said. "[Chase] Daniel throws two picks, one for a touchdown, and they are still in the game last week. That defense will keep them in the game. I think they can get after the Rams' offensive line, and I think the quarterback will play a little better than last week."
The other insider picking Chicago noted that the Rams' schedule is requiring them to play at Detroit and Chicago in consecutive weeks, a difficult travel predicament.
"If they win both of those games, you should crown them," this insider said. "But they lost Cooper Kupp and I think Chicago's defense can stop the run. If Trubisky plays, I think Chicago moves the ball enough."
For fun, and in light of this matchup featuring Khalil Mack and Aaron Donald, I asked one of the insiders which defensive player in the league he'd build around if given the chance. He said it would come down to Mack, Donald or Von Miller, and that he'd lean toward the outside rusher.
"It would be hard for me to go against Mack," he said.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
Monday: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN | Point spread: SEA by 3 | Insiders pick: SEA (2/3)
The Seahawks have played four games this season against teams that emerged from Week 13 ranked among the NFL's upper half in ESPN's defensive efficiency metric. They scored 17 points against the top-ranked Bears (lost), 17 points against the sixth-ranked Chargers (lost), 24 points against the 10th-ranked Cowboys (won) and 20 points against the 12th-ranked Cardinals (won).
Next up: the Vikings, whose defense ranks third. Will Seattle fare better in this matchup than it did in those losses to the Bears and Chargers? Or will this be another game in which the Seahawks have 17 points on the board as they sweat out the final minutes?
"I like [Mike] Zimmer game planning Russell [Wilson]," the insider picking Minnesota said. "What scares you a little bit is, Kirk Cousins should be playing better. Seattle is not great on defense, but the home atmosphere will make them a notch better."
Zimmer has publicly complained about his own offense abandoning the run. In some of those situations, defensive box counts have led the Vikings away from called runs into quick passes designed to beat run-oriented defenses. Will Zimmer press the override button, forcing Minnesota to stick with the run Monday night?
"Maybe Minnesota tries to emphasize the run game, but they could get behind anyway and keep turning into what they have been doing all year," another insider said. "Their strength is their receivers. I will take Seattle. I don't like Minnesota playing big games on opposite sides of the country in back-to-back weeks while Seattle is sleeping in its own beds the whole time."
The third insider marveled when informed Seattle is 7-3 over its past 10 games, the sixth consecutive season the team has been 7-2-1 or better during this specific 10-game stretch of the season (third game through 12th game).
"They thrive this time of year," this insider said. "My hat's off to Pete Carroll if they continue to play the way they are playing. It's a testament to coaching. I think they believe it right now and that is a good place to be in. Seattle is running it the way Zimmer wants to run it, but I don't know if Minnesota has the personnel to sustain the run game like that."