Our panel of NFL Insiders predicts Week 14's biggest upsets, fantasy flops and potential sleepers.
Plus: Picking the Packers' next head coach and selecting franchise-building defensive players.
What's your top upset pick for Week 14?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Vikings +3.5 over Seahawks. Run the ball. Vikings offensive coordinator John DeFilippo is taking heat this week for the lack of running-game production in Minnesota. It's time to flip the script: feed Dalvin Cook and lean on Mike Zimmer's defense to win critical game situations. This will be one of the most physical games of the season.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Bears +3 over Rams. Yeah, I'm going there. The Rams have had a couple of escapes in their past two games and are coming off a division-clinching victory and traveling across multiple time zones for the second week in a row. The Bears need to get back on track after a disappointing loss to the Giants, and they get the upset at home, where they're 5-1 this season, against a team they might see again next month in the playoffs.
Mina Kimes, NFL writer: Jaguars +4 over Titans. I really have no idea which Tennessee team is going to show up on Sunday, which is reflected in the stats: According to Football Outsiders, the Titans' week-to-week performance has the third-highest variance in the NFL. I'll take the Jaguars' front seven, which notched three sacks against a stout Indianapolis offensive line on Sunday, in what should be a low-scoring game.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Buccaneers +8 over Saints. Tampa Bay beat New Orleans on the road in Week 1. The Saints have had extra time to prepare, but divisional familiarity should be an equalizer for Tampa Bay in that regard. The Buccaneers are healthy on their defensive line (just ask Cam Newton) and getting better play from Jameis Winston, who somewhat incredibly ranks sixth in Total QBR this season.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Jaguars +4 over Titans. The Jaguars served a none-too-subtle reminder in Week 13 that their defense can be as dominant as any, pitching a shutout of the red-hot Colts. These two teams played in a field goal fest earlier this season, with Tennessee emerging victorious, 9-6. But with Leonard Fournette back, the Jaguars have a chance to put together some wins in the final quarter of the season with what they envisioned to be their strengths all along: defense and ground game.
So long, Mike McCarthy. Whom should the Packers hire as their next coach?
Bowen: Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma coach. I like the idea of the Packers going after Vic Fangio here. It's about hiring a leader first, the most important guy in the building. But let's think big and go with Riley. Yes, he will need to hire a defensive coordinator with deep NFL roots to make this transition work. But even with the expected adjustment period as he makes the jump to the pro game, pairing Aaron Rodgers with Riley's creative offensive thinking would allow the Packers to design and execute a system that maximizes the veteran quarterback's unique talent base.
Graziano: Josh McDaniels, Patriots offensive coordinator. Yeah, yeah, I know, I know. How can anyone trust McDaniels after what happened with the Colts last year? But McDaniels and Rodgers together? Too good to pass up. Rodgers would be energized and McDaniels would land in a sweet coaching spot where everything but the weather is set up for a coach to thrive and succeed.
Kimes: Josh McDaniels, Patriots offensive coordinator. I was tempted to name a college hotshot like Riley, but I think a more experienced coach would be a better fit for Rodgers. While teams will be understandably wary of McDaniels after he backed out of the job in Indianapolis, he's undeniably brilliant as a playcaller, with the sort of innovative offensive mind that Green Bay needs right now.
Sando: Bruce Arians, former Cardinals coach. What you see is what you get with Arians: a bold, confident leader with a clear vision for his team and a proven ability to work well with an established GM who is essentially a franchise lifer. Steve Keim was that GM in Arizona. Brian Gutekunst would be that GM in Green Bay. Arians has been great with veteran quarterbacks, and he could attract Todd Bowles as defensive coordinator if the Jets fire him. I'd rather give someone such as Arians, Norv Turner or Mike Shanahan one last shot than roll the dice on finding the next Sean McVay -- unless one of the young candidates convinces them he's that type of coach. McDaniels' offense would be appealing, but are the Packers interested in rebranding as Patriots Midwest? McDaniels' Denver experience shows the risks.
Yates: Josh McDaniels, Patriots offensive coordinator. Echoing what Dan and Mina have said, it's natural to envision a Rodgers-McDaniels pairing, with the foundation being a Ph.D. in offensive acumen. McDaniels is in a very good spot with his current role in New England, which underscores that when he puts his name back into the head-coaching ring after last offseason's change of heart, he will do so only for what is viewed as a strong opportunity. The chance to coach a two-time NFL MVP would qualify as such.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Bowen: Marlon Mack, RB, Colts. Mack was held to just 27 yards rushing on eight carries in the Week 13 shutout loss to the Jags. And the Texans' run defense is pretty stout too. Ranked No. 5 in the NFL vs. the run -- giving up an average of only 91.3 yards per game -- the front seven in Houston looms as another tough matchup for Mack in Week 14.
Graziano: Andrew Luck, QB, Colts. I mean, not to the extent of last week's whitewashing by the Jaguars, but I see Luck and the Colts' passing attack having a tough time in Houston against the hottest team in the league. Not only are the Texans playing defense at a high level, they're controlling games on offense with their running game and should be able to keep the ball away from Luck & Co. in a game that could deliver Houston a division title.
Kimes: Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans. While the decline of the Jaguars' defense has been slightly overstated (they're seventh in DVOA), it has allowed opposing quarterbacks to put up decent fantasy numbers. I don't expect that to happen this week. Against Indianapolis, the unit looked like it did in 2017, and a re-energized pass rush should give Mariota fits behind his shaky offensive line.
Sando: Spencer Ware, RB, Chiefs. His debut game as Kareem Hunt's replacement did not go well from a fantasy standpoint. He will now face a Ravens defense that has allowed league-low fantasy totals to running backs.
Yates: Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks. Lockett has been remarkable this year, exploding for nine receiving touchdowns, as many as he had in the first three seasons of his career combined. But he next faces the Vikings, who have surrendered just 15 passing touchdowns all season, tied with Jacksonville for the fewest in the NFL. Lockett has six games with three or fewer catches this season. Look for Minnesota to focus on slowing him down Monday.
You get to pick any one NFL defender with which to start your new franchise, regardless of contract situation. Whom are you taking and why?
Bowen: Khalil Mack, OLB, Bears. Yeah, Aaron Donald might be the pick here. And I thought about Chargers rookie safety Derwin James. But I have no issue rolling with Mack. He's a game-wrecker who racks up impact plays with the top-tier combination of power and speed to create instant chaos off the edge. I can win with that.
Graziano: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams. He's on pace for 22 sacks from a defensive tackle spot, for goodness' sake. I don't care what he makes. Who else is going to do that? This guy is a legit MVP contender from a position where no one ever is.
Kimes: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams. He gets double-teamed the majority of the time and still leads the league in sacks, often disrupting the game in clutch moments. He did just that Sunday when he strip-sacked Matthew Stafford (after fighting through two linemen). He's ridiculous.
Sando: Myles Garrett, DE, Browns. Garrett is an interesting alternative to Donald because he's five years younger, already extremely productive and ascending. I'd typically favor an outside rusher, but the best ones are already in their later-20s. If I'm starting a franchise, I'm going to favor youth. I'm also going to favor defenders who play close to the ball and directly affect the quarterback. Garrett checks those boxes. He might not be as good as Donald, but he's a good choice as a long-term building block.
Yates: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams. Do I really need to explain why? He's unstoppable.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 14.
Bowen: Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos. Sutton saw season highs in targets (seven), receptions (four) and receiving yards (85) in Denver's Week 13 win over the Bengals, and he added a touchdown grab on a deep-ball throw. The raw skills are there, and the vertical routes cater to his size and matchup ability at the point of attack. He can go get it. With a matchup in Week 14 vs. the 49ers, you are playing the upside of Sutton. He's a WR3 in deeper leagues, with more value in non-PPR formats.
Graziano: Michael Gallup, WR, Cowboys. Amari Cooper is getting all of the attention, and for good reason. But Gallup has been targeted 13 times over the past two weeks and hasn't scored a touchdown since Oct. 21. He's due, and the banged-up Eagles secondary has been very permissive to wide receivers this year. They'll lock in on Cooper, and I'm thinking Gallup can get loose for at least one long one.
Kimes: Justin Jackson, RB, Chargers. If no one in your league grabbed Jackson after last week's performance, run, don't walk. Even if he splits carries with Austin Ekeler, Jackson should produce against Cincinnati. The Bengals have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs of any team in the league.
Sando: Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers. Melvin Gordon's uncertain status is a variable to watch here, but as Mina said, Cincinnati ranks last in fantasy points allowed to running backs, so Ekeler carries upside.
Yates: Adam Humphries, WR, Buccaneers. Humphries is on some sort of roll of late, snagging 26 of 31 targets and five touchdowns over his past five games, surpassing 50 yards in each of them. The Bucs are about as pass-happy an offense as you will find, and this figures to be the case this weekend when they host the high-octane Saints.