Our panel of NFL Insiders predicts Week 13's biggest upsets, fantasy flops and potential sleepers.
Plus: Offseason moves to edge the Browns closer to the playoffs, and has Lamar Jackson done enough to start for the Ravens out of the gate in 2019?
What's your top upset pick for Week 13?
Mike Clay, NFL writer: Browns +6 over Texans. Who am I if not the resident Browns apologist? Cleveland has won back-to-back games against Atlanta and Cincinnati, and the coach-improved offense has registered at least three touchdowns in four of its past five games. Sure, the schedule has been light, and Houston has been one of the league's hottest teams, but the Browns seem to have turned over a new leaf. I think they keep the win streak alive.
Domonique Foxworth, The Undefeated senior writer: Washington +6.5 over Philadelphia. After playing on Thanksgiving, Colt McCoy gets more than a full week to prepare for the Eagles' depleted secondary. I think it'll pay off. Washington will be able to move the ball and score, and its defense will continue to play well in the red zone. Since Week 6, the Redskins' D has been the best in the league, giving up touchdowns just 36 percent of the time.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Chargers +3.5 over Steelers. It's a tough one to pick, with Melvin Gordon's knee situation and the Steelers' strength at receiver, but I'll side with the Chargers after making them my Super Bowl pick earlier in the season. This feels like a defining season for Philip Rivers. Maybe this will be a defining game for him within the season.
Kevin Seifert, NFL national writer: Chargers +3.5 over Steelers. I was tempted to back away with Gordon (knee) likely missing this game, but I don't think people realize how good the Chargers are regardless. They've lost once -- by one point -- in the past two months. I'd feel more comfortable if Gordon were available, but the Steelers have been shaky for two consecutive weeks, and this is the moment for the Chargers to announce themselves as Super Bowl contenders.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Buccaneers +3.5 over Panthers. The Panthers are cold of late, having lost three straight games, the latter two in heartbreaking fashion. Their playoff outlook went from nearly certain to hopeful, so they really need this one in Week 13. That being said, the Bucs are capable of winning a shootout, with Jameis Winston averaging 337 yards per start this season.
What's one offseason move the Cleveland Browns should make to edge closer to the playoffs next season?
Clay: Add an impact perimeter wide receiver. The Cleveland offense has been terrific of late, but it's hard not to wonder what it would look like with Josh Gordon still in the fold. The likes of Antonio Callaway and Rashard Higgins aren't the answer, and the 2019 free-agent class is uninspiring, so spending an early pick on a potential star is likely going to be the best course of action.
Foxworth: Hire a head coach with a vision. The Browns have been a model of franchise instability since their return to the NFL. From youth, talent and draft capital perspectives, the Browns have the brightest future of any team in their division. But if they don't hire a coaching staff that has a vision for how to get the most out of their young stars on both sides of the ball, they will have squandered their best opportunity in decades.
Sando: Figure out the coaching situation. The Browns should have done that from the start after hiring John Dorsey as general manager, but they can still get it right. It's becoming quite an interesting situation with Baker Mayfield progressing so nicely under coordinator Freddie Kitchens and quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese.
Seifert: Assemble a top-end coaching staff. For various reasons, the Browns have struggled to recruit high-end candidates for the seven head-coaching openings they've had in the past 13 years. That trickles down to the coordinator and position-coach levels. But for the first time in a long time, the Browns have an attractive roster and front office. Finding strong, established, innovative leaders on the field -- from the head coach to the playcallers to the position coaches -- would be the best thing to happen to this franchise in decades.
Yates: Keep the offensive system stable. Whenever there is a coaching search to be conducted, it opens the possibility of an overhaul of the entire staff. While we have no knowledge of what the full-time head coach's plan will be at offensive coordinator, there's something brewing right now with Mayfield and Kitchens that shouldn't be disrupted. Mayfield has already experienced a coaching change once in his young NFL career, and the Browns would be wise to keep the pillars of this system in place to allow Mayfield to continue to blossom.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Clay: Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons. Ryan is fantasy's No. 3-scoring quarterback this season, but the Atlanta offense has cooled of late. Ryan has finished 10th or worse at the position in fantasy points in four of his past five outings, and the Falcons' offense has totaled five touchdowns the past three games. Ryan faces a Baltimore defense this week that hasn't allowed a quarterback to eclipse two passing touchdowns in a game since Week 2.
Foxworth: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. The Saints are one of the best fantasy defenses against running backs because they allow the fewest average yards after contact and are so often playing with a big lead, forcing opponents to abandon the run and attack downfield. On average, opponents run the ball 20 times per game (fewest in the league) against the Saints. On Thursday, the Cowboys will find themselves in that situation. If Zeke doesn't break big runs in the first half, he won't get a chance in the second half. He's a very good receiver, but he isn't good enough to make up for the amount of carries and yards he will lose this week.
Sando: Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns. Mayfield Mania is sweeping Ohio after a couple of impressive weeks, but the Browns' improving rookie quarterback will be stepping up in class with this road game against Houston. Instead of picking apart the porous Bengals, he'll be running from Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt. That's a potentially tough matchup.
Seifert: Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants. Even if Giants coach Pat Shurmur decides to feature Barkley for four quarters, either on the ground or in the passing game, it'll be tough for Barkley to roll up big numbers against the Bears' defense. The Bears have allowed an NFL-low four touchdowns on the ground. Opponents have connected on 68 completions to running backs, tied for sixth most in the NFL, but the Bears have limited opponents to 1.46 yards after contact on those passes (ninth best).
Yates: Ravens wide receivers. The Ravens' offense has obviously shifted with Lamar Jackson under center, but to quantify it a bit, consider this: Joe Flacco led the NFL in pass attempts per game (42.1) when he injured his hip, while Jackson has attempted just 44 passes in two starts. Willie Snead IV had a serviceable game in Week 11, and Michael Crabtree found the end zone in Week 12, but the reality is, receiving yards are hard to come by. John Brown and Crabtree have a combined 76 yards in two Jackson starts, while Snead was absent from the stat sheet in Week 12. It's a phenomenal matchup against Atlanta, but it's hard to say with certainty which, if any, Ravens wideout is bound for success.
Lamar Jackson has had his ups and downs in two weeks as the Ravens' starter. Has he shown enough to be a lock as their Week 1 starter in 2019?
Clay: Yes. Jackson has benefited from facing a pair of struggling defenses while at home in his first two NFL starts, but he has shown well, completing 27 of 44 passes (61 percent) for 328 yards and adding 190 yards on 37 carries. The TD-to-INT ratio needs work (two touchdowns, three picks), but Baltimore couldn't have expected a much better start from the 21-year-old rookie. He's right on schedule to take over as the full-time starter in 2019.
Jeff Saturday expresses his thoughts on Lamar Jackson's performance vs. the Raiders and how the Ravens allowed him to play in rhythm.
Foxworth: Yes. When the Ravens drafted Jackson and signed Robert Griffin as a backup, they decided that the future of this team was with Jackson. He has been OK in his two starts, showing flashes of greatness, and that will be enough to convince the staff of his potential. Even if he doesn't develop into a Pro Bowl-level quarterback, he can be at least as effective as Flacco -- for a lot less of a cap hit.
Sando: No. The rest of the season will provide information that could influence the decision. If Jackson plays terribly from this point forward, or if Flacco returns and leads a deep playoff run, the Ravens' thinking could change.
Seifert: No, he hasn't, but yes, he is a lock. A QBR of 39.1 in just two career starts is not enough on its face to guarantee any player a long-term starting position, but this is how the NFL works, especially at quarterback. A first-rounder gets some playing time in his rookie year and, barring a complete collapse, is the starter by Year 2.
Yates: No ... but yes. Jackson has not yet shown enough, but there's still more than enough time for him to position himself as the starting quarterback to begin 2019. It makes too much sense from both a production and a financial standpoint for the Ravens to transition to Jackson full time in 2019. (The transition might already have taken place, though the Ravens won't commit to that yet.)
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 13.
Clay: Josh Reynolds, WR, Rams. The last time we saw Reynolds, he caught 6 of 8 targets for 80 yards and 1 touchdown against the Chiefs. Cooper Kupp's replacement is positioned for a big role as the high-scoring Rams' No. 3 receiver and has a great Week 13 matchup. Darius Slay is very likely to shadow Brandin Cooks on his perimeter routes, which opens the door for Reynolds to feast against recently promoted undrafted rookie Mike Ford. Ford has allowed 10 catches on 11 targets for 176 yards this season.
Foxworth: Nyheim Hines, RB, Colts. Andrew Luck has been getting rid of the ball quickly, and I expect that to continue this week. But repeatedly throwing at the Jaguars' corners is a risky proposition, so Hines, the Colts' best pass-catching back, will get more opportunities on screens and checkdowns. If he could turn one of those into a touchdown, he most certainly would be a boon to your fantasy roster.
Sando: Case Keenum, QB, Broncos. After slugging out victories over the Chargers and Steelers, the Broncos face a Bengals team that has given up a league-worst 258 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Seifert: Jared Cook, TE, Raiders. Cook has a touchdown in each of his past two games, and you know the Raiders are going to be in catch-up mode early in this game. The Chiefs have allowed 812 receiving yards to tight ends this season, second most in the NFL. Their five touchdowns allowed to tight ends is tied for seventh most in the league.
Yates: Theo Riddick, RB, Lions. While it was LeGarrette Blount who found the end zone twice on Thanksgiving, Riddick remains the Detroit back I prefer until Kerryon Johnson returns. He's now up to 25 catches in his past four games and should remain busy this Sunday as the Lions host the Rams. The freight-train Los Angeles offense figures to make Detroit throw to keep pace, leading to a healthy dose of the elusive and reliable Riddick.