Alex Smith set an NFL career high with 26 touchdown passes for the Kansas City Chiefs last season. Patrick Mahomes tossed his 27th, 28th and 29th scoring strikes Sunday in the Chiefs' ninth game since trading Smith to Washington.
You can safely mark down the Chiefs' transition to Mahomes as one of the NFL's best moves from last offseason.
With all but two teams reaching the midpoint of their schedules Sunday, I've reached back into the offseason to find the best and worst moves.
I'm not crediting teams for finding contributors in the sixth round or hammering, say, the Arizona Cardinals for signing Sam Bradford before they knew they would have a shot at drafting Carson Palmer's replacement early in the first round. I'm not returning verdicts on first-round rookie quarterbacks or even first-year head coaches, on the assumption eight or nine games isn't enough to go on.
In every case, the moves could have been anticipated as sound or risky ones based on information available at the time.
Best moves
Kansas City Chiefs trading Alex Smith to clear the way for Patrick Mahomes
Smith joined three other players since 2002 to attempt at least 400 passes in a season, reach the playoffs and then get traded. If it could happen to franchise mainstays such as Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb, it could happen to Smith, especially after the Chiefs traded up to select Mahomes in the 2017 draft. The big difference was that Smith was coming off a career year.
"Favre was the face of the franchise and a Hall of Famer, so that was different, but [Aaron] Rodgers sat for three seasons," an exec said. "Mahomes sat one year, Alex had a career year and Andy Reid still had the conviction to say, 'This is what we are doing.' It takes courage to make that decision."
Reid was also a driving force behind the Philadelphia Eagles' decision to trade McNabb to Washington, clearing the way for Michael Vick. That transition also worked out favorably.
"It's a testament to how many quarterbacks have played at a high level under Andy," the exec said. "He is a true quarterback developer and he calls a compatible game for the quarterback. Andy Reid deserves credit for that."
Minnesota Vikings letting QB Case Keenum walk in free agency after a 13-3 season
Keenum's career QBR was in the 40s before his Minnesota tenure. It's back in the 40s with Denver this season. The Vikings could have paid Keenum off the 72.8 QBR he posted last season, which would have been defensible following a 13-3 season. Instead, Minnesota dared to get better at a position where it's usually easier to get worse.
"They were smart enough to realize they had the quarterback-friendly setup with a ferocious defense that gives up 20 points or less a game," an exec said. "That is not always an easy decision to make when the head coach is charged with winning games and the GM is charged with building the team. Hats off to them."
Whether or not Kirk Cousins continues his early pace with Minnesota, the Vikings look smart for determining Keenum's breakout 2017 season was probably the exception, not an indication of how he would play in the future.
Washington Redskins signing 33-year-old RB Adrian Peterson
This was a desperation move after the Redskins lost Derrius Guice, Samaje Perine and Byron Marshall in the preseason. Peterson had appeared close to finished while rushing for 601 yards with a 3.1 yards-per-carry average over the 2016 and 2017 seasons. That could be why Redskins coach Jay Gruden had this to say when the team signed Peterson: "We'll see. If you've got a Redskins jersey on, you are here to compete and make the squad. It is no different with him."
Peterson is on pace for a 1,000-yard season for a team that is contending in the NFC East the old-fashioned way -- avoiding turnovers, controlling the ball and playing pretty good defense.
"[Peterson] is a special athlete who attacks offseason conditioning, so the fact that he is fit does not surprise me," one of Peterson's former coaches said. "It is somewhat surprising he is producing so well and still has the speed and quickness. The bonus is that he is playing hurt. It is inspiring. I doubt Jay Gruden is still shoulder shrugging like when they signed him."
Washington signed Peterson for less than what running backs Zach Zenner, Benny Cunningham and Doug Martin got last offseason.
Seattle Seahawks fixing their offensive line by adding Mike Solari and D.J. Fluker
Seattle pivoted away from Tom Cable's zone blocking scheme by hiring Solari to coach the line and the 350-pound Fluker to infuse it with muscle and personality. The fit appears perfect, as there now seems to be alignment between head coach, offensive coordinator, line coach and personnel. The Seahawks have rediscovered their offensive identity.
Having healthy running backs is another big part of this equation, but the pass protection has likewise improved. With Solari changing the scheme and Fluker taking over at right guard, Seattle is also in the process of salvaging 2016 first-round right tackle Germain Ifedi, a huge bonus.
"Pete [Carroll] has a formula, and when he has the right players and the right mix in the locker room, it really goes," an exec said. "He wants to run the ball and play defense. That is what he did for five seasons when he had Beast Mode [Marshawn Lynch] in there taking all the pressure off the quarterback. Any good fortune they have is no surprise to Pete."
This one could be imperiled after a rough loss to the Chargers on Sunday. Both Fluker and running back Chris Carson left that game with injuries, a potentially ominous development with the 8-1 Rams on the schedule next.
New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft steps up to keep offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels
It looked like the Patriots would lose both coordinators from their Super Bowl team after the Detroit Lions hired Matt Patricia and the Indianapolis Colts announced McDaniels as their next head coach. Losing both could have put significant strain on head coach Bill Belichick to make up the difference on both sides of the ball.
"You are reminded how important Josh is to that system when he is over there on the bench sitting with [Tom] Brady and Bill is nowhere to be seen in the picture," an exec said. "With Josh there, Bill can focus more on helping with the defense."
With Kraft reportedly sweetening the Patriots' offer to McDaniels, New England kept together an important offensive pairing.
Indianapolis Colts trading the third overall pick to the New York Jets
This move meant the Colts would not select one of the top quarterbacks or the top-rated pass-rusher, Bradley Chubb. It meant the team was betting on Andrew Luck returning to health, and also betting that pass-rush help could be found later in the draft.
The Colts are winning those bets. Luck has 23 touchdown passes, a career high through eight games. He has taken only 10 sacks, a career low through eight games and 21 fewer than he took to the same point in 2016, his most recent season in the lineup. Shorter passes are part of the equation, but so is an improved offensive line.
Indianapolis used the picks acquired from the Jets to select starting guards Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith, plus starting defensive end Kemoko Turay.
Carolina Panthers hiring Norv Turner as offensive coordinator
Former coordinator Mike Shula had generally done a good job tailoring the Panthers' offense to Cam Newton's unique talents, but with Newton's efficiency slumping, coach Ron Rivera decided to make a change. The risk wasn't whether Turner could successfully coordinate an offense. He has done that for decades. The risk was whether the fit would be right. It has been.
Newton's eight-game totals in completion rate, touchdown passes, passer rating, sacks, sack rate and unadjusted QBR are career bests. Turner has Newton throwing shorter passes. The quarterback also had career-best numbers when targeting wide receivers: nine touchdowns, one pick and a 108.4 passer rating.
Atlanta Falcons coach Dan Quinn sticking with Steve Sarkisian as offensive coordinator
The Falcons' red zone problems and overall offensive regression in 2017 made Sarkisian an easy target for criticism as an outside-the-box replacement for Kyle Shanahan. Quinn easily could have made a change, but instead he took a longer-range view. ESPN's metric for offensive efficiency shows the 2018 Falcons matching the 2016 version to this point in the season.
"The Falcons have something called patience that no one seems to have these days," an exec said. "It was a big move to not let him [Sarkisian] go last season. Then there was the outcry from a Thursday night kickoff game [in Week 1] with poor red zone pass locations. But people do not get dumb overnight. I thought Sarkisian did a good job last year. The results are there this year."
Worst moves
Cleveland Browns putting together the most volatile coaching mix possible
This Browns season should have been all about creating the best possible situation to bring along rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. Instead, the Browns hired a brash offensive coordinator to install an offense different from the one their head coach had installed while posting a 1-31 record under a different general manager. They retained their brash defensive coordinator and even welcomed the opportunity to appear on HBO's "Hard Knocks."
What could go wrong?
The Browns have sometimes been more competitive, but when a few close games slipped into the loss and tie columns, the Browns fired their head coach and offensive coordinator. Owner Jimmy Haslam said the team made these moves to show the organization would not tolerate anything less than collaborative leadership. That should have been the priority before the season, when just about everyone anticipated a scenario just like this one playing out.
In brainstorming with an evaluator from a team this past week, we wondered whether any ascending coach with options would accept the head-coaching job in Cleveland under the current ownership. The evaluator thought through the situation and started chuckling as an idea came to mind. What about Jeff Fisher? He has a long association with interim head coach Gregg Williams and has been the king of leading teams through treacherous situations, both in Tennessee and St. Louis. People joke about Fisher going 7-9 or 8-8 all the time, but not the Browns. They've been .500 or better just once since 2003.
Oakland Raiders giving Jon Gruden full control without replacing GM Reggie McKenzie
Gruden became the head coach and personnel decision-maker after nine seasons out of the league. After watching him undo just about everything the sitting GM has built the program around in recent years, it seems obvious the Raiders would have been better off putting into place from the beginning an all-new personnel infrastructure, something that figures to happen next season.
Maybe owner Mark Davis has told Gruden not to worry about anything until the team is playing in Las Vegas a couple of years down the road, in which case now is certainly the time to hit the reset button. What it looks like, however, is a case of the highly empowered new coach making a series of moves at odds with the publicly announced plan.
We could fill this entire section with critiques of various personnel moves Oakland has made, but before critiquing the Raiders, it would help to know what they're attempting to do.
Under Gruden, Oakland has loaded up on veteran players as if seeking to maximize the team's ability to win with Derek Carr in the second year of the quarterback's five-year deal, only to blow up the roster. Veterans such as Jordy Nelson and Derrick Johnson could have helped lay a foundation for the future by imparting wisdom upon young players, except that many of those young players are gone or lost in the shuffle.
Khalil Mack is gone, Amari Cooper is gone, and veteran Bruce Irvin is gone. The first-round picks Oakland acquired for Mack and Cooper could help the Raiders maneuver for a quarterback in future drafts, but didn't the team already have a quarterback in Carr? Meanwhile, Oakland had the NFL's oldest starters by average age heading into a blowout defeat to undermanned San Francisco in Week 9. There have been other hard-to-figure moves, such as trading a third-round pick for receiver Martavis Bryant, only to release him, then re-sign him.
"You go old to show the young guys what it takes to win, but then you do not win, and some of the young guys you want to help are now gone," an exec said.
Every team needs a GM or some personnel evaluator to do the work of a GM. The Raiders have a coach and a GM figurehead, whose days appear numbered.
New York Giants making Nate Solder the highest-paid offensive lineman in NFL history
The Giants made Solder the NFL's highest-paid offensive lineman with a four-year, $62 million contract. They used the second overall pick for running back Saquon Barkley in another move designed to help get more from Eli Manning. Those moves haven't worked so far, and the Giants are no closer to figuring out their long-term future behind center.
It would be fashionable to bash the Giants for selecting Barkley second overall, instead of selecting Manning's replacement. We could pontificate on the value of a quarterback in relation to the value of a running back, and we would be correct, but the problem is, we don't know if any of the highly drafted 2018 rookie quarterbacks will be good players.
Sam Darnold, the quarterback the Jets selected third overall, threw six passes to Miami defenders Sunday. The Dolphins intercepted four of them, and by the time the game ended, the Jets were reduced to receiver screens and other conservative calls. Darnold could become the next Peyton Manning or the next Mark Sanchez. No one knows.
Only three qualifying quarterbacks have lower QBRs than Manning this season. They are rookie first-round picks Josh Rosen, Darnold and Josh Allen. First overall pick Baker Mayfield is one spot above Manning. They could all become busts or excellent players. Who knows?
We do know Manning has struggled behind a poor offensive line in recent seasons. We do know evaluators consulted back in March generally thought Solder was coming off a down season with New England in 2017. They did not see the 30-year-old winner of two Super Bowls as an elite left tackle, but they acknowledged beggars could not be choosers, either. Solder was one of the most proven linemen on the market in free agency, leading the line-starved Giants to treat him as though he could reverse their fortunes up front.
Los Angeles Chargers failing to fix their field goal kicking problem
Analysts were not snickering in the offseason when the Chargers signed Caleb Sturgis. Back then, no one predicted that when Week 9 rolled around, CBS' broadcast of the Chargers' victory at Seattle would feature a graphic noting that Sturgis had become the first player since 1979 to miss both a field goal try and an extra point in three consecutive games.
Here we are.
The Chargers have a very good team overall. Last season, their offense and defense both ranked among the top 10 in ESPN's efficiency metrics. The Vikings, Eagles and Rams were the only other teams able to make that claim. Unlike those other teams, the Chargers missed the playoffs. Their special teams were to blame. The Chargers lost more than 23 expected points on field goal tries alone, the third-worst figure out of 384 teams from 2006 to 2017.
As for this season? The Chargers ranked 31st in special-teams efficiency heading into Week 9. While their overall special-teams performance has improved markedly since an especially bad opening week against Kansas City, the kicking game remains a question mark.
The Chargers signed Sturgis in March. From 2013 through last season, Sturgis ranked 32nd out of 36 qualifying kickers in field goal accuracy from 41 to 54 yards. Why isolate those yardages? Because kickers made 93 percent of tries from shorter than that distance, while missing more than half of tries longer than that distance. That leaves the middle distances as the ones where kickers differentiate themselves.
After signing Sturgis, Chargers GM Tom Telesco told reporters the former Eagles kicker was one of multiple options. He said the team would "fix" the position, but does any team really know how to evaluate kickers? Mostly, they seem to sign or draft them, then hope.
Buffalo Bills trading away all their viable backup quarterbacks
This team's fortunes hinge on Josh Allen in the bigger picture, but in a league filled with horrendous backup quarterback situations, the one in Buffalo could be the worst. A team that had Tyrod Taylor and AJ McCarron has gotten one touchdown pass and 14 interceptions since the start of last season when current backups Nathan Peterman or Derek Anderson start.
The question is, does a rebuilding team owe its fans an ineffective backup instead of a futile one? What is worse, going through a season with Anderson and Peterman starting for stretches, or wasting $20 million of the owner's money for a better quarterback with a bigger name who is going to lose games anyway?
"Rookie QBs are going to play after three or four games anyway," an evaluator said. "If you can make a better backup evaluation on a [Josh] McCown or [Ryan] Fitzpatrick, is it better than [Sam] Bradford or [Mike] Glennon for top money? It shows the dysfunction of the backup quarterback market. It is the definition of a crapshoot."
Other teams with quarterback issues had reasons for proceeding the way they proceeded.
The Cardinals went after Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith before settling for Bradford. As bad as the Bradford deal looks now, the picture was different in March. Arizona held the 15th pick in the draft, so there were no guarantees the team would be able to draft Josh Rosen or one of the other top quarterbacks.
Jacksonville could have replaced Blake Bortles or added a more viable alternative, but bringing back Bortles on a midlevel starting deal was not outrageous after the quarterback had played a leading role in the team's near-upset of New England in the AFC title game. The Jaguars knew how they would have to win. The infrastructure around Bortles has faltered. Would the team be better with a different quarterback who also needs an elite running game and defense to win?
"If backups can play, they will be on someone else's team starting," another exec said.
Dallas Cowboys going into the season with Allen Hurns as their No. 1 receiver
Hurns has complained about the Cowboys' playcalling. The Cowboys have traded a first-round pick to Oakland for Amari Cooper in a desperate attempt to upgrade their personnel at wide receiver. All parties seem to agree that this deal is not working out as hoped.
Hurns enters Monday night with 13 receptions for 158 yards and one touchdown after signing a two-year, $11 million deal.
Dallas made a strong push for Sammy Watkins, who signed with Kansas City instead. Hurns was the fallback, but he's not nearly good enough to replace what the team had become accustomed to getting from Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. The move to acquire Tavon Austin has not worked out either, leaving Dallas in a position that was widely anticipated.
Miami Dolphins signing G Josh Sitton to a two-year, $18 million deal
Sitton was a very good player for Green Bay, but his age (32) and two injury-shortened seasons with Chicago made him a high-risk signing.
An evaluator I consulted when writing a preseason column on every team's concerns thought the Sitton signing was emblematic of the Dolphins overall.
"If they are successful, it will be for two reasons," this evaluator predicted. "One, the former elite players -- the Sittons, the Frank Gores, the Cameron Wakes, the Robert Quinns and even the William Hayeses and Reshad Joneses -- will still have some elite play in them, and then the young guys have to play well. So, if all of a sudden you wonder how Miami got to 7-3, those will be the reasons why. It can happen, but it's like trying to pull an ace on the river [in poker]. You could see them be good for two weeks, and then wonder how they got blown out twice in a row."
Sitton was a known injury risk at age 32 and coming off two injury-shortened seasons. He landed on injured reserve after one start with Miami.