Both owner and head coach have emphatically said the Arizona Cardinals will not trade star cornerback Patrick Peterson, so let's assume a trade is about as likely as the 1-6 Cardinals overtaking the 7-0 Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West.
Peterson does want out of Arizona, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter, and a deal is at least possible until Oct. 30, when the NFL's trade deadline arrives. That gives us a window to consider theoretical moves, including one that stood apart from the others when I exchanged ideas with league insiders following Schefter's report.
This idea involved the Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings working out a swap that would include a handshake agreement resolving a separate high-stakes issue that is percolating behind the scenes but has rarely been mentioned publicly. In a way, all three parties could help themselves -- Arizona, Minnesota and Peterson.
Patrick Peterson to the Vikings? Here's how such a deal could make some sense if Cardinals owner Michael Bidwill were to reverse his clear public stance.
The potential trade
Arizona would send Peterson to the Vikings for cornerback Trae Waynes, plus 2019 first- and third-round picks, with the Cardinals agreeing to keep Sam Bradford on their roster so that Minnesota will remain eligible for a 2019 third-round compensatory pick that would otherwise vanish.
There's a lot to unpack under such a scenario.
The Bradford component
The contract Bradford signed when leaving Minnesota for Arizona last offseason was lucrative enough to tip the comp-pick equation to the Vikings' advantage, but that was under the assumption Bradford would remain with the Cardinals for most or all of the 2018 season.
If the Cardinals were to release Bradford in the short term, which seems plausible with Josh Rosen in the lineup and Mike Glennon behind him, the league would no longer treat Bradford as a significant enough departure in free agency for the Vikings to qualify for that third-round comp pick. Not only that, but Arizona could gain its own compensatory sixth-round pick for letting Bradford go.
The Bradford component has rarely been covered in the media beyond comp-pick projectors such as Nick Korte, who does analysis for overthecap.com and tweeted about this subject last month. While the NFL's precise equation for handing out comp picks is not public, the projections at overthecap.com are so solid that some in the league have said their own calculations are less necessary.
The Vikings need Arizona to keep Bradford to get that pick, but it is not really in the Cardinals' best interest to play along -- unless they could get something from Minnesota to make it worth their while.
Why it could work for the Vikings
Vikings coach Mike Zimmer covets cornerbacks more than most coaches do. That was well-established even before Minnesota used a 2018 first-round pick for Mike Hughes at a time when the Vikings already had the highly drafted Waynes and Xavier Rhodes on the roster.
Hughes is now out for the season, a blow to the Vikings' depth at the position. Waynes is under contract through 2019, but it's not clear whether Minnesota will give him the kind of lucrative long-term deal other core players on the team have gotten. If the Vikings aren't going to re-sign Waynes, how great would it be for them to get a guaranteed upgrade in a potential Hall of Famer?
"In Zimmer's mind, if you have Xavier Rhodes and Patrick Peterson on that defense, you should be elite," an evaluator said. "It is your answer for Trae Waynes also, and you keep that third-round comp pick. The problem for Arizona is that Waynes could basically be a rental."
Why it could work for the Cardinals
Peterson is a seven-time Pro Bowler and three-time first-team All-Pro who is still just 28 years old and under contract through 2020. He remains an elite corner by most accounts, the type of player any team would want to build around. To move him, Arizona would ideally get a competent replacement, plus future considerations to help the team rebuild quickly around new quarterback Josh Rosen.
Otherwise, trading Peterson would signal to Cardinals fans that the team is essentially tanking. That would be a difficult public admission to make for an organization that has made great progress in building trust with its fan base but still cannot afford to take the paying public for granted. Bidwill surely noticed all those Denver Broncos jerseys in State Farm Stadium last week, even though Arizona is above .500 overall since the stadium opened in 2006, and seventh in winning percentage (.619) over its previous five seasons (2013-17).
The Cardinals could drive a hard bargain with Minnesota while trying to capitalize on the Super Bowl-or-bust mentality the Vikings displayed when they signed Kirk Cousins last offseason. The Cardinals know the third-round comp pick is important to the Vikings, which would also work in their favor.
"If you are Arizona, I think you can sell this trade to the owner by saying, 'Hey, we've got the QB and the running back, let's load up with offensive linemen,'" a longtime exec said. "With your own 1 [first-round pick] and Minnesota's 1, plus an extra 3, you can finally fix your line. That is what I'm selling the owner."
So far, Bidwill appears closed to any such ideas. The league will be watching to see if he changes his stance over the next week.