Aaron Rodgers demonstrated Sunday night what Tom Brady showed during his epic comeback victory against Atlanta two Super Bowls ago. If you're going to fall behind big, it helps having an all-time great quarterback to lead you back.
You still might be surprised to learn how infrequently even Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks overcome third-quarter deficits like the 20-0 hole Rodgers found himself in before escaping for a 24-23 victory over the Chicago Bears. Brady and Rodgers are 5-16 in those games.
As surprising as the numbers say it was for Rodgers to do what he and the Packers did to Chicago, there were even bigger shocks in this 2018 opening week. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Ryan Fitzpatrick channeling 1984 Dan Marino, 1994 Steve Young and 2004 Peyton Manning while embarrassing the New Orleans Saints' defense was one of them.
Some Week 1 surprises were anomalies. Others could be harbingers. Here's a look at which ones I'm buying and which ones I'm selling heading into the rest of the season.
Surprises I'm buying
Jameis Winston really could stay on the bench
Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht got everyone's attention when he revealed during preseason that there were no guarantees Winston would return to the lineup after serving a three-game suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy. It might have seemed like a surprising thing for a GM to say, but it was the truth. And after Fitzpatrick shredded New Orleans for 417 yards and four touchdown passes Sunday, the possibility of Winston remaining on the bench became much greater.
"The thing [Fitzpatrick] did down there in New Orleans, that is impressive," a veteran defensive coach said. "Four touchdowns, 417 yards, rushes for a touchdown and runs over the defender at the goal line, then gets the critical first down in four-minute."
Check out the numbers on both quarterbacks over their past four starts with Tampa Bay. Fitzpatrick isn't consistent enough to hold onto a job for the long term, but he could be streaky enough to delay Winston's return to the lineup. And if the Bucs' weaponry is good enough to sustain him deep into the season, what then for Winston?
Deshaun Watson's struggles against the Patriots
The sportsbooks gave Watson shorter MVP odds than Drew Brees and Todd Gurley II heading into the season. That was understandable on one level. Watson has already proved he's a game-changer at the college and pro level. But even as Watson was transforming the Texans, evaluators cautioned that he was getting away with risky throws that could cost him in the future if the odds evened out.
After the Texans' 27-20 loss to New England on Sunday, Watson has thrown at least one interception in six of his eight games. It was nonetheless surprising to see him struggle to the degree he struggled Sunday, especially against a Patriots defense that had surrendered more than 600 yards to Nick Foles and Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. In completing 17 of 34 passes for 176 yards, Watson posted his lowest completion percentage as a pro.
I'm expecting some growing pains for Watson despite the obviously bright long-term outlook. He's coming off an injury, playing behind a shaky offensive line and facing opponents that had months to study how Houston deployed him in its offense. We also should naturally expect some regression from the production that had Watson ranking first in Total QBR last season among 35 quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts (only Brady, Manning and Rodgers have had higher QBRs for a season than Watson had as a rookie).
On the plus side for Watson, his knee should only get stronger, and the Texans draw some questionable defenses early, including the New York Giants (Week 3), Indianapolis Colts (Week 4) and Buffalo Bills (Week 6).
Patrick Mahomes' spectacular start
Mahomes is not going to toss four touchdown passes without a pick every week, as he did in beating the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. I'll just be surprised if he's not pushing for a spot in the second tier, as Watson has done, when it's time to gather QB Tiers ballots next offseason.
This thinking goes beyond Mahomes' talent. The Chiefs have a doctorate-level offensive schemer in Andy Reid and some of the best weapons anywhere in the league. Even if it's true that Mahomes will be prone to turnovers at times, I'm buying his performance against the Chargers as the latest among several indications that Kansas City will not regret its decision to go with Mahomes in the long term. Among the indicators:
Reid's primary quarterbacks have almost always met or exceeded expectations, from Donovan McNabb to Michael Vick to Alex Smith (Reid also drafted Nick Foles, whose best season was under Chip Kelly). Reid's flexibility in offensive design is a common denominator that endures and should help Mahomes.
After seeing Mahomes in a backup role for a year, Reid felt good enough about him to trade Smith even though Smith was coming off arguably the best season of his career. The 2017 trade to acquire Mahomes made trading Smith the most likely outcome, but it's clear the Chiefs did not have significant reservations about their young QB.
Mahomes has played well in both his starts. One was meaningless. The other, Sunday in Los Angeles, was only one game against a Chargers team missing Joey Bosa. There will be bumps in the road, but with Reid running the offense and with Kansas City possessing all those weapons, the framework is in place for a talented young quarterback to produce. What happened Sunday was compelling.
Ryan Clark and Jeff Saturday react to Patrick Mahomes' four-touchdown effort in the Chiefs' 38-28 win over the Chargers.
A new sack leader in the Watt family
T.J. Watt collected four sacks for the Pittsburgh Steelers during their 21-21 tie with Cleveland, giving him a huge head start on his three-time Defensive Player of the Year brother. T.J. Watt now has 11 sacks in his first 16 regular-season games, double what J.J. Watt had in his first 16 starts back in 2011. The Steelers led the NFL in sacks last season and could contend in that category again.
J.J. Watt had 17.5 sacks for Houston in his last 16-start season, but that was 2015. Injuries have limited him to 1.5 sacks in 10 games since then. He was back on the field for Houston in Week 1 after rehabbing from a fractured tibia, and if he can stay in the lineup, the assumption is that he'll regain some of his previous form. It's looking like it might be little brother's time to shine, however. It certainly was on Sunday.
The Titans' offensive troubles
Every Miami opponent from last season had scored at least nine points against the Dolphins through three quarters, so it was surprising to see Tennessee with only three on the board to that point Sunday. Even though the Titans rallied to make the final score closer (27-20), the performance and injury outlook make it easy to buy the idea that Week 1 could be telling for Tennessee -- in a bad way.
There was uncertainty heading into the season regardless. Tennessee had a first-time head coach with a defensive pedigree and a first-time offensive coordinator backed by a less-experienced offensive staff. Quarterback Marcus Mariota had more interceptions (15) than touchdown passes (13) last season, plus a concerning injury history.
The weather and multiple lightning delays made Sunday a challenging day for offense in Miami. There is plenty of time for Mariota and the Titans to grow and improve. But with injuries sidelining Mariota, left tackle Taylor Lewan and top receiving threat Delanie Walker, the uncertainty surrounding the Titans' offense entering the season is concerning.
Walker is likely lost for the season, and while it sounds like Mariota could play next week, he didn't make it through the Titans' first game of the season. After hearing all offseason about how run-pass options were going to sweep through the league, it was notable, too, that Mariota was injured while executing one. It lent some credence to what Jon Gruden used to tell QB Camp prospects: that RPO can stand for "ridiculous protection offense" because quarterbacks lose their protections under the rules when riding the back in an effort to put opposing defenders into conflict.
Surprises I'm selling (for now)
The Saints' 2015 defense returns
How bad was the Saints' D three seasons ago? That 2015 unit ranked 381st out of 384 defenses from 2006 to '17, using ESPN's efficiency metric. The Saints were historically bad on defense over both the 2015 and 2016 seasons, but after becoming respectable last season, the assumption was that they would be respectable again.
Then Sunday happened. Fitzpatrick became the ninth quarterback to reach 400 yards passing against the Saints during Sean Payton's 12-plus seasons as head coach. His five total touchdowns made him the third player to account for that many in one game against Payton's Saints (Eli Manning and Cam Newton also did it). The Bucs won 48-40 as the biggest underdog on the board in Week 1.
It's natural to worry about this 2018 Saints defense, but the 2017 version was even worse through two weeks. In fact, the two-week metrics for the Saints on defense last season are the worst in ESPN's data warehouse. That defense recovered sufficiently for the Saints to become a playoff team. This one can, too, although there are some potentially difficult matchups ahead (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Chicago and Atlanta are next on the schedule).
The Ravens' offense is suddenly excellent
It's pretty clear Joe Flacco and the Ravens' offense will be better this season. That was apparent during preseason and again during the 47-3 pounding Baltimore put on Buffalo in the opener. Flacco's three scoring passes went to three players who weren't on the team last season. That's encouraging for Baltimore even though Buffalo is probably the worst team in the NFL this season.
I'm not buying yet, however, because this game against the Bills was a little like the Ravens' 40-0 victory over Miami last season. Both games were at home against teams with remedial offenses led by backup-caliber quarterbacks -- Nathan Peterman for the Bills and an unretired Jay Cutler for the Dolphins last season. Feed teams like that to the Ravens and they'll feast until there's barely any carcass remaining.
The Buffalo game marked Baltimore's fourth since the start of last season in which the Ravens began at least four possessions in opposing territory. The other three games produced victories by scores of 44-20 (Detroit), 23-0 (Green Bay) and 23-16 (Houston).
Let's see how the Ravens' offense looks against Cincinnati, Denver and Pittsburgh over the next three weeks -- especially if the short fields are less plentiful.
The Steelers don't really miss Le'Veon Bell
James Conner's 135-yard, two-touchdown rushing performance for Pittsburgh was surprising, no matter the opponent. Conner showed the Steelers were onto something when the team used a 2017 third-round pick for the inspirational former Pitt star and cancer survivor. It looks like Conner could become a viable successor to Bell if the Steelers move on from the Pro Bowl running back who continues holding out, but the offense can't be the same without Bell.
"The way [Bell] runs, you don't even try to coach it," a veteran coach said. "You just say, 'Keep doing what you are doing,' and you are not really sure how he is doing it. The other kid hits it in there like everybody else."
That was good enough for Conner to put up surprising numbers against the Browns.
Adrian Peterson's 96-yard rushing day
Frank Gore (2016) is the only running back to rush for 1,000 yards in his age-33 season since John Riggins did it back in 1985. If there's any other back who can do it, it should probably be Peterson, who amassed 166 yards from scrimmage for Washington against Arizona. After all, Peterson proved himself to be a different type of special when he rushed for 1,485 yards in 2015, less than a year after he suffered a career-threatening knee injury.
I'm not yet buying Peterson as a 1,000-yard rushing candidate this season partly because the fit with Washington seems less than ideal. The Redskins have had just one 1,000-yard rusher since Jay Gruden became coach, with Alfred Morris topping out at 1,074 yards in 2014. Peterson had two 100-yard rushing games for Arizona last season, but otherwise did not get much going (the line and QB situations were obvious factors). Peterson has never been known as an effective pass protector, which can become a bigger factor in playing-time considerations when a back is no longer as dynamic as Peterson was earlier in his career.
"Adrian Peterson is such a freakish athlete," a veteran coach said, "but he would have to beat back Father Time and then get all those yards playing for a coach whose affinity for the forward pass is well-known. It could be the aging back who can't take a pounding playing for the coach who sometimes uses the run as a changeup."
That last part may or may not be true. The Redskins under Gruden have run the ball about as frequently as other teams have run it, at least when adjusting for score differential and situation. A thousand yards will still be a high bar for even an all-time great like Peterson to clear, one reason Gore is the only runner at that age to do it since Riggins more than three decades ago.