ORLANDO, Fla. -- Odell Beckham Jr. openly hoped during the 2017 NFL season that he would become the highest-paid player in the league, not simply the highest-paid wide receiver.
That was never going to happen, but with the receiver market spiking during the current free-agency period, the price for Beckham could be high enough for the New York Giants' new leadership to ask themselves a pivotal question.
What could the Giants get for Beckham if they sought to trade him as Beckham heads into the final season of his rookie contract? I posed that question to executives before and after arriving at the NFL owners meetings this weekend. Three proposals rose to the top, and after hearing what Giants owner John Mara told reporters at the owners meetings Sunday, the subject is not as far-fetched as it once would have seemed.
"We're certainly not shopping him," Mara said. "Again, when you're coming off a season when you're 3-13 and played as poorly as we played, I wouldn't say anyone is untouchable."
1. Two second-round picks: The Brandon Marshall comp
Marshall averaged 102 receptions for 1,237 yards and eight touchdowns per season over a three-year period when the Denver Broncos traded him to the Miami Dolphins before the 2010 season. The Broncos got two second-round picks in return, one in 2010 (43rd overall) and the other in 2011.
"If I am the Giants, two 2s is not going to get it done," an NFL executive said. "The quarterback has to have someone to throw it to. I wouldn't want to get rid of Beckham unless the deal was right."
Marshall was 26 years old and unhappy with the Broncos' handling of a hip injury and his contract. He had demanded a trade and been suspended by the team for "detrimental" conduct that included punting the ball instead of handing it to a ball boy during a practice at training camp.
Beckham, 25, has shown he can be the best receiver in the game, or close to it. He also has missed 17 of 64 games (27 percent) in four seasons, and his behavior has rankled some, including Mara, while contributing to Beckham's reputation for immaturity.
Beckham averaged 96 receptions for 1,374 yards and 12 touchdowns per season over a three-year period heading into 2017 (an ankle injury limited him to four games last season). Beckham has created drama with sideline tantrums, a touchdown celebration that included mimicking a dog peeing (Mara was not amused) and other antics that qualify more as potential distractions than reasons for the Giants to run him out of town.
But with a new GM and head coach looking to establish themselves, will the organization go all-in on Beckham? When GM Dave Gettleman was in Carolina, he pulled the franchise tag from cornerback Josh Norman after negotiations stalled, allowing Norman to leave in free agency.
Beckham is much more established than Norman was, and most probably would agree that he is more dynamic than Marshall as well.
The accompanying table comparing Beckham with Marshall shows their production over their first three years as full-time starters (Beckham started from his 2014 rookie season, while Marshall became a starter in his second season). The numbers are similar in many areas, but Beckham has a 35-23 lead in touchdowns and a 12-3 lead in receptions gaining 50-plus yards.
2. A fourth and a second: The Marcus Peters precedent
Peters, like Beckham, has set a Hall of Fame statistical pace to start his career. Both are young, dynamic playmakers at positions that are valued similarly at the highest level (the franchise tag number for receivers is about $1 million more than the number for cornerbacks).
The Kansas City Chiefs sent Peters, 25, to the Los Angeles Rams for a 2018 fourth-round pick and a 2019 second-rounder. Peters has one year left on his contract, plus a team option for 2019, whereas Beckham is already entering the team option portion of his rookie deal.
The low price that Peters commanded suggests the Chiefs were especially motivated to unload him, and that the market was limited.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid suspended Peters for one game in December after Peters tossed a penalty flag into the stands and left the field as part of an outburst that drew an NFL fine. When Peters was in college at the University of Washington, coach Chris Petersen kicked him off the team after Peters reportedly had a series of clashes with members of the coaching staff.
That history puts Peters in a category apart from Beckham unless the Giants' new leadership is unwilling to make Beckham a centerpiece of the rebuilding. The Giants recently acknowledged they were "aware" of a recently released video showing Beckham with a woman holding a credit card over white powder on a piece of cardboard. If that and previous incidents are enough to scare off the Giants' new leadership, the price for Beckham might be lower than anticipated.
"He is not quite as valuable as he was six months ago, is he?" said an exec who nonetheless thought any deal should start with a first-round pick.
3. The dream scenario: Two first-round picks
It has been 18 years since the Seattle Seahawks sent Joey Galloway to the Dallas Cowboys for two first-round draft choices. The price Dallas paid has become an example of overpayment, even though Galloway was seen as a game-changing talent at the time.
Through four seasons, Galloway had 36 receiving touchdowns, two fewer than Beckham, who did it in 16 fewer games. Galloway also had four touchdowns as a returner to that point in his career. He averaged 15.7 yards per catch to Beckham's 14.1.
"I still might do two 1s for Beckham if I get a contract with him that I like," an exec said, speaking in general and not for any specific team. "I could see it if the first pick is in the middle of the round, maybe the 15th pick this year and then a first next year. You have to game plan against Beckham. He is not a system guy or anything else. You have to take him out."
A different exec didn't think anyone would give up two first-round picks in addition to signing Beckham to a deal worth $17 million to $20 million per year.
"I think it's closer to the Brandon Marshall deal," this exec said.
Another longtime exec thought two first-rounders would be a reasonable ask if the Giants were open to the idea of a trade. Galloway isn't the only precedent. A year before Seattle and Dallas made that trade, Tampa Bay sent two first-round picks in the 2000 draft to the New York Jets for Keyshawn Johnson. The Bucs won a Super Bowl with Johnson making 76 receptions for 1,088 yards and five touchdowns on a 2002 team led by a dominant defense.
"I wouldn't put it past Dave Gettleman to trade Beckham, but really, if he is going to go with Eli [Manning], the only chance he is going to have is if he has Beckham," another exec said. "The knocks on Beckham are that he has been hurt, and he is immature. If he ever grows up, then you already have a heckuva player. I don't know how you replace him. There is nobody in this draft who can replace him. I promise you that."
4. The Percy Harvin package is another comp to consider
Seattle traded first- and seventh-round picks, plus a third-rounder the following year, to Minnesota for Percy Harvin before the 2013 season.
"Percy was not quite as big as Odell, but you are taking on a guy who can be a pain," another exec said. "The latest thing with the video and all these little marks against him, you maybe could get a one -- maybe. Nobody will give up two ones. Once you get him, you gotta pay him, and do you trust him? I think when it comes down to it, the price could be lower than people think."