Super Bowl predictions are great. The explanations behind them are better. Five coaches who faced the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles a total of eight times this season did not disappoint when I asked them to preview Super Bowl LII.
All five liked the underdog Eagles' chances. That doesn't mean they necessarily picked against Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots.
Here, in their own words, are what they see as the keys to the game, along with a pick on the final result from each:
1. Defensive coach: Brady is not Keenum
These are a stressful 13 days for [Eagles defensive coordinator] Jimmy Schwartz because of the way New England attacks off coverage vs. how Minnesota attacked off coverage. Does Schwartz give the big cushions on the outside the way he did against Vikings QB Case Keenum? Because if he does, Tom Brady is going to be much more aggressive and dynamic in attacking. New England will take the risks that Vikings coach Mike Zimmer and offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur were reluctant to take with a lesser quarterback.
Minnesota typically throws easier inside routes against off coverage. Keenum was not going to call the run play and then wink at [Stefon] Diggs out there and say, "Oh, they are playing off, let's let nine other guys play run while me and you will throw it out there." With Minnesota, they commit a ton of resources -- eight-man protections, play-action and so forth -- so that when Keenum hangs the ball, the guy is extra-open. Brady will make the aggressive throws with tighter cushions and that ball will be whistling.
In the end, I don't think Philly has enough on offense. I could be wrong. Does Jimmy [Schwartz] have enough defense and rush to do it? Yes. That is the key variable. He probably has to dial up some creativity. Now, Jacksonville did not and almost won. New England got two explosive gains off trick plays, a 36-yard DPI [defensive pass interference] and a conversion on third-and-18 ... and barely won.
The Patriots will be in the right spots. They are not busting the routes. Are they fit? Yes, they ran 99 offensive plays in last year's Super Bowl. Do they give effort? All the time. How is their technique? Excellent. How is their schematics with [offensive coordinator] Josh [McDaniels] calling it? Really good. How does the quarterback deal with pass-rush pressure? Everyone says Brady doesn't like it, but he threw 56 times in the AFC Championship Game two years ago, took four sacks, got hit hard 24 times in the game, and with 12 seconds left, he is throwing the two-point conversion attempt for overtime from 2 yards away. So, he deals with it pretty damn good.
You will probably be in the press box going, 'S---, [Eagles head coach Doug] Pederson and Jimmy [Schwartz] found a way to be up 27-20 in this, but I just feel it coming like a f---ing head cold in the winter. Achiness in the joints, stuffiness of the nose, it is coming. Because Josh is going to call the plays that they are going to make enough of the time.
The pick: Patriots
2. Former head coach (current assistant): The Eagles' big advantage
Philly's defensive line against New England's offensive line is the biggest mismatch of the game. New England will try to have some semblance of a run, but it is hard to run on those guys, so what the Patriots will end up doing is taking those little running backs they do such a great job emptying the backfield with, and seeing if they can get mismatches.
Philly does not have linebackers who can hang with those guys. I think you will see mismatches. The greatest thing for Tom [Brady] is he gets a man-zone tell every time when a guy is out there.
I think New England will create some issues rushing Eagles QB Nick Foles and trying to make him be accurate. They are a big two-deep, two-man team, so he is going to have to be spot-on with his throws. When you say two-man, it is man underneath, so someone is running on the receiver's low hip. A wide receiver has to make a good tight break. I don't think Alshon Jeffery is a guy who does that well. Now, target-wise, if Foles knows how to throw it up high to him and accentuate his height, that helps, but I'm not sure those are great guys against man underneath.
It is hard to pick against New England.
The pick: Patriots
3. Head coach: Patriots will try to get Eagles off of their system
Philadelphia is one of the matchups that remind me of the Giants. The Eagles have the four-man rush, they are doing a good job of keeping things in front of them, they are fast, they are good on defense.
Foles is like Jeff Hostetler here. No one ever thought New York was going to beat Buffalo because Jim Kelly is a Hall of Fame quarterback and Jeff Hostetler was a backup. But if Philly does not turn it over, then it gets interesting. If it becomes a shootout for some reason, that is bad for Philly, but I think that is not likely because Philly has such a good defense.
It will be interesting to see how Philly's run game does. Philadelphia does a lot of different stuff. A lot of the Eagles' zone-read, their wham plays they do -- a lot of that might not be great against what New England does, because New England plays that Bear front where it covers up the three interior guys. It is a lot of one-on-one blocks and those guys are solid at what they do.
If the Eagles' defense plays off coverage to start, New England will throw the ball underneath until they come out of it. It will come down to who blinks first because Jim [Schwartz] has been pretty consistent as far as not letting that bother him. He just plays his defense.
It is hard because I never can bet against New England. You have watched it so many times. The guy [Brady] had the biggest deficit in the biggest game ever and came back and won it [against the Falcons in the Super Bowl last season]. That is Brady.
The pick: Patriots
4. Quarterbacks coach: Can the Eagles' rally continue?
I think Doug Pederson is thinking, "Hey, we just have to stay on schedule." The Eagles have Jay Ajayi and [LeGarrette] Blount, two talented backs who are monsters. You can dictate the tempo with that. Then you have Foles, who is playing with house money. He is just ripping it. Here is a chance to play off the run game and then cut it loose on third down. Just stay efficient and it's OK to punt the ball. If you give the Patriots a really long field, it is going to be hard for them.
Philly's inside guys on defense are a problem. Tom will get the ball out quick. Don't be surprised if the Patriots wham the Eagles with some interior trap runs to slow them down a little bit. The Philly corners are good, not great. [Brandin] Cooks is going to be a problem for them. New England has some guys who are detailed route runners. Watch a team like Oakland against Philly late in the year and you will see the worst slant route ever leading to an interception in the fourth quarter. Detailed route running will exploit Philly, and that is where the Patriots have made their living.
I am taking the Patriots in this game, but look at how the Eagles have rallied since quarterback Carson [Wentz] went down. Their defense has done a great job. I love their linebackers. Nigel Bradham is a violent tempo-setter. He can redirect, react. He is fast. He continues to grow as a player. When you have guys who play with violence and passion and their teammates love them, they emulate that.
The pick: Patriots
5. Offensive coordinator: Patriots still have Brady ... and leprechauns?
Philly is not going in there thinking, "Oh, s---, it's New England." The Eagles are going in there to line up. Their defense is so good. They are thinking, "We are going to rush four, play single-high defense, and our four can get to the quarterback just like the Giants did when they beat those guys in the Super Bowl."
On offense, Philly has enough skill guys to spread it around between the tight end [Zach Ertz], the slow guy from Chicago [Alshon Jeffery] and the little [Nelson] Agholor guy. The Eagles have that big back [Ajayi] who is going to run through a couple tackles, and then the QB just kind of feels it. He just kind of plays and enjoys it. I think the game is going to be really close -- there is enough defense for Philly to keep it that way.
Now, New England will get D-linemen on the edges of offensive linemen and do things like that to jack up the zone running game, so it is not just straight rushers up the gaps. Because if you let Ajayi get downhill, he will blow some stuff up. But if you make him go sideways before he crosses the line of scrimmage, he is not nimble enough to restart with any power.
The Patriots will win because they got Tom Brady and they will find a way. They have lucky leprechauns playing for them -- they do.
The pick: Patriots